Friedman: Noah Hanifin could be traded this offseason

[BatVader]

Hanifin is what Bergevin is hoping Sergachev turns into, so what would be the ask from Montreal?
If Sergachev isn't required in return, he could be traded for Duchene after.

 

[DaveG]

Hanifin is what Bergevin is hoping Sergachev turns into, so what would be the ask from Montreal?
If Sergachev isn't required in return, he could be traded for Duchene after.

Montreal doesn't have anyone that's a good fit in terms of age and control for Carolina.

Galchenyuk wouldn't get it done for Hanifin IMHO.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I see Dallas as a potential fit for a Hannifin deal for the #3 pick, which would be any of Vilardi/Middlestedt/Glass. But, none of them should be in the NHL next season. Vilardi is the closest physically, but needs some work on his skating.

Question, then becomes, how NHL ready does Carolina need the return to be?

Someone needs to clarify HN value for me.....he was the fifth leading TOI D man on the Canes, and is likely to be lost in the expansion draft, no? How is that worth the third pick alone?

 

[RodTheBawd]

Again, please acknowledge that factually the revised deal
considers Stepan for Faulk a ballpark wash
and
in consideration of not using Stepan towards Hanifin
then with ELC Buchnevich is still
add of Grabner at half
deletion of Canes obligation to send all those draft picks
and 3 lesser Ranger picks replaced by one better one

so, pal-o-meano, pal-o-mino,
ya still think Canes were shortchanged and I did not play nice?;

I'm going to put the goaltender situation aside for now. With Darling signed, I don't mind keeping Ward. Arguments many ways, but that's my stance.

The rest is what I take issue with.

We can't move Faulk AND Hanifin. You keep saying we have the depth to replace both, we don't.

The issue is that you seem to pass your assessment that Stepan (w/ retention) is roughly equal to Faulk as a generally accepted fact. This is where we diverge. I would absolutely not move Faulk for Stepan (w/ retention). If we ignore the Hanifin side, and are just talking Faulk for Stepan, I want your 2018 1st. Basically a price I doubt any NYR fan would pay, but it is what it is. I'd use that 1st along with another piece to pull someone like Vatenan to fill out our right side.

Onto Hanifin... Buch + Grabner (50%) + A future 2nd... No. We can do better.

Back to the drawing board. Let's get back to our originally greed upon blockbuster and rip Faulk out of it. I'm willing to listen on Raanta, but preference would be to pull him out too.

Someone needs to clarify HN value for me.....he was the fifth leading TOI D man on the Canes, and is likely to be lost in the expansion draft, no? How is that worth the third pick alone?

Bud, check the other thread where you asked this silly question.

 

[DaveG]

Someone needs to clarify HN value for me.....he was the fifth leading TOI D man on the Canes, and is likely to be lost in the expansion draft, no? How is that worth the third pick alone?

20YO top 4 dman (yes, top 4, his play actually improved dramatically when paired with a decent partner with the increased minutes post-Hainsey trade), and has the draft pedigree of being a guy that would easily be the #1 pick this year if it were his draft year. He was widely considered with Marner as the next best prospects in the McEichel draft and has done nothing since to give reason to think he doesn't deserve that valuation. #3 pick in this draft doesn't even sniff Hanifin, especially with the Canes position in the standings and how far along they are in to the rebuild considered.

Since you don't seem to care to look it up, here's the list of NHL caliber dmen on the Canes that are EXEMPT from the expansion draft:

D Noah Hanifin
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brett Pesce
D Haydn Fleury
D Roland McKeown

literally the only quality NHL regular we have to protect is Justin Fualk, we still have 2 expansion slots we can use to pick up someone a team would otherwise lose for nothing for a draft pick if need be.

 

[bernmeister]

....{prior approved blockbuster} final:
Stepan at $6.5 + Buchnevich, ELC, .925, + Raanta $1M expiring next season, reduced by half to .5 + Panthers 2017 4th + NYR 2018 3rd + NYR 2018 6th. Salary Cap Out = $7.925

for

Hanifin, ELC, .925 + Stempniak next year at 2.5m and Murphy, next yr at .878 + Lack [@ 100%], expiring next year $2.75m + NYR 2017 2nd, Pitts 2017 2nd, Ottawa 2017 3rd + 2017 5th (Bos) : Salary Cap Out = $7.7553.

where we are {EDIT were}, approved, awaiting workaround to OTT 3rd ^ --------


the full pop on all salaries would be:
Stepan at $6.5 + Buchnevich, ELC, .925, + Raanta $1M expiring next season [not reduced] + Panthers 2017 4th + NYR 2018 3rd + NYR 2018 6th. Salary Cap Out = $8.425
and
Hanifin, ELC, .925 + Stempniak next year at 2.5m and Murphy, next yr at .878 + Lack [@ 100%], expiring next year $2.75m + NYR 2017 2nd, Pitts 2017 2nd, Ottawa 2017 3rd + 2017 5th (Bos) : Salary Cap Out = $7.7553 [same total, no adjustment]

what if NY took all of that except Lack off the table
AND added Grabner, expiring next year 1.65m at half
kept Raanta at half
AND in lieu of the 4th, 3rd and 4th, Rangers kicked in a future 2nd?

that would look like
REVISED
Hanifin, ELC, .925 + Faulk 4.833,333 x 3 more years + cap dump Lack [@ 100%], expiring next year Salary Cap Out = $7.675.
for
Stepan at $6.5 + Buchnevich, ELC, .925, + both expiring next season and reduced by half Raanta $1M reduced to .5m + Grabner, 1.65m at half reduced to .825; + NYR 2018 2nd. Salary Cap Out = $8.75

pieces consolidated to realistic doability 4 players for 3 + a pick
What Canes get:
if they can deal with LV, which is likely, they move Cam Ward to LV and roll with Raanta-Darling
they probably can move Grabner w/just small picks /Dahlbeck etc., add . Grabner can offer McPhee a player w/exceptional speed to provide half year of excitement, who can then be rental to top bidder.
is keeping the picks [2 2nds + a 3rd already used], getting one better pick [next yr Ranger 2nd], and rolling with the above w/grabner at half worth faulk? ...

I'm going to put the goaltender situation aside for now. With Darling signed, I don't mind keeping Ward. Arguments many ways, but that's my stance.

The rest is what I take issue with.

We can't move Faulk AND Hanifin. You keep saying we have the depth to replace both, we don't.

The issue is that you seem to pass your assessment that Stepan (w/ retention) is roughly equal to Faulk as a generally accepted fact. This is where we diverge. I would absolutely not move Faulk for Stepan (w/ retention). If we ignore the Hanifin side, and are just talking Faulk for Stepan, I want your 2018 1st. Basically a price I doubt any NYR fan would pay, but it is what it is. I'd use that 1st along with another piece to pull someone like Vatenan to fill out our right side.

Onto Hanifin... Buch + Grabner (50%) + A future 2nd... No. We can do better.

Back to the drawing board. Let's get back to our originally {a}greed upon blockbuster and rip Faulk out of it. I'm willing to listen on Raanta, but preference would be to pull him out too.
...

1. Thanks for acknowledging "Arguments many ways" on netminders.
I realize Ward at current # and somewhat improved is not even remotely as toxic as Ward on his previous deal, but I am surprised to hear you say "With Darling signed, I don't mind keeping Ward". Your better option IMO is Darling-Raanta [or Raanta-Darling]. You move Lack in our deal. Ward + Lack are taking up over 6mil; some of that would go to Darling, but you are retaining Raanta [before extending him] at HALF of 1mil. Not sure how you go wrong there.

2. Faulk AND Hanifin
Even moving both, do you not have a top 6, all ELC exempt, already?
In addition to top pair Slavin-Pesce
you have Tennyson and McKeown, both RDs who shoot right
with Bean and Fleury LDs shooting left and giving Canes basis to move Hanifin

Faulk is RD. Pesce is stellar. Tennyson has played well to earn roster spot. Even if you want more experience on 3rd pair, Faulk is certainly expendable.

3 Stepan roughly = to Faulk [assuming adjustment, as I acknowledged, for 2m-ish salary diff]
Stepan is roughly 20th best C in the league.
There are sexier names of players who in a vacuum are >, but if you take into account salary, age and wear and tear, while Stepan is not a bargain at at 6.5, he is good value. I mean ideal conditions, single game, sure Malkin is miles, light years better. But if you factor in age, contract approaching 10m, being banged up requiring games to be sat out, etc who would you pay for to build, and not as a 1-2 yr rental?
Stepan is close to Jordan Staal. Faulk still commands high value, even tho Pesce has outplayed him for 1RD on Carolina. Faulk is legit 1RD.
But IMO, honestly it is close, once salary adjusted. Faulk does NOT command a whole 1st on top of Stepan if we decide to quibble and either side adds; the dif is not a 1st, and again, that is splitting hairs.

4. The red: "Onto Hanifin... Buch + Grabner (50%) + A future 2nd... No. We can do better."
This is not accurate.
If Stepan = Faulk a wash, then Raanta at half under the Hani column; but also, you would be keeping all the picks you were sending over. So,
in addition to making a cap dump of Lack at 100%
you are retaining
+ Stempniak next year at 2.5m and Murphy, next yr at .878
okay, these are minor figures included initially for cap dump purposes, whoop de doo, but if retained you can still get a couple of picks for them;
and also you keep 4 picks
NYR 2017 2nd, Pitts 2017 2nd, + 2017 5th (Bos) and what we agree is substitute for Ottawa 2017 3rd.
Grabner + Raanta get a 1st each, 2 2nds, + lesser picks + chump change for the cap dumps added to Buch, and a future NY 2nd, and I don't think Carolina is shortchanged here.

5 blue: "Let's get back to our originally {a}greed upon blockbuster and rip Faulk out of it. I'm willing to listen on Raanta, but preference would be to pull him out too."

By all means, let's see if we can save and even improve upon the original deal.
I went where I did because it preserved the deal, but also because it made it more real world do-able by consolidating total number of pieces.

As I say on record, I am usually willing to overpay for pieces I want if I can do it in the currency I wish.

Faulk would be very nice, but he is not critical to NY here

If we can agree upon and consolidate picks coming to NY, which was the original deal, that works for me too.

If we have the best offer for Hanifin, and I think we will, and you guys do decide to move him --- open at the moment --- and you are not getting MacKinnon for sure, and likely not getting Sam Reinhart or comparable, then I expect the following:

McDonagh + Zuccarello + for SReinhart + EKane +
Marc Staal bought out, Girardi NMC-> limited NTC eventually moved
Holden, Klein for picks

Nash to SJ for ELC RD Bergman + acceptable pick and cap relief

which results in
Hanifin/Skjei as 1st/2nd pair LD [unless Skjei, a lefty, plays right side]
Graves, Bereglazov LDs who may play right side
LD Sean Day a year-ish away
Neal Pionk competes at RD
Bergman ditto
trade picks, a 1st + for Dumba
and possibly 1 year, 2 yr max only at 7m per, Shattenkirk

so you see, Faulk is not pivotal to the plan

I am way behind for the moment.
I invite you to go back to our drawing board and see what you come up with.
Take out Faulk, keep Stepan
reinstate the cap dumps
your thoughts on alternates to Raanta/in or out
and come up with alternate draft picks.

Again, I'd like to see if we can't consolidate the picks so the deal is more wieldy

 

[bernmeister]

I'm listening. ..please post all 3 teams lineups post trade as well as update us on their cap situation s.

This will require increments.

Increment 1. Cap hits, Rangers {1 of 2, revise further after Buf deal} and Hurricanes {final}

REVISED
Hanifin, ELC, .925 + Faulk 4.833,333 x 3 more years + cap dump Lack [@ 100%], expiring next year Salary Cap Out = $7.675.
for
Stepan at $6.5 + Buchnevich, ELC, .925, + both expiring next season and reduced by half Raanta $1M reduced to .5m + Grabner, 1.65m at half reduced to .825; + NYR 2018 2nd. Salary Cap Out = $8.75

cap hits 8.75 -7.675 = 1.075 savings to cap for Rangers, add for Canes

projected Carolina lineup S/S = Staal-Stepan or Stepan-Staal
Buchnevich - S/S - Skinner
Aho - S/S - Lindholm
Nordstrom- Rask - Teräväinen
McGinn - McClement - Stempniak

Slavin-Pesce
Fleury-Tennyson
Bean - McKeown

Raanta-Darling [Darling-Raanta]

expects w/minor inducement of 2 picks [3rds?] can have LV take Ward off your hands

 

[migi]

Stepan is top-20 C in NHL? Haha.

Stepan = Faulk? Not even close and Faulk had a bit rough year.

You trade Faulk or Hanifin for guys like "Duchene" or "Nylander" or you don't trade them. That D without Faulk AND Hanifin is so bad, even that Bean and Fleury has potential to be very good Dmen.

I think you build Canes D around Slavin, Pesce & Hanifin, trade Faulk with someone for Nylander.

 

[spockBokk]

This will require increments.

Increment 1. Cap hits, Rangers {1 of 2, revise further after Buf deal} and Hurricanes {final}

REVISED
Hanifin, ELC, .925 + Faulk 4.833,333 x 3 more years + cap dump Lack [@ 100%], expiring next year Salary Cap Out = $7.675.
for
Stepan at $6.5 + Buchnevich, ELC, .925, + both expiring next season and reduced by half Raanta $1M reduced to .5m + Grabner, 1.65m at half reduced to .825; + NYR 2018 2nd. Salary Cap Out = $8.75

cap hits 8.75 -7.675 = 1.075 savings to cap for Rangers, add for Canes

projected Carolina lineup S/S = Staal-Stepan or Stepan-Staal
Buchnevich - S/S - Skinner
Aho - S/S - Lindholm
Nordstrom- Rask - Teräväinen
McGinn - McClement - Stempniak

Slavin-Pesce
Fleury-Tennyson
Bean - McKeown

Raanta-Darling [Darling-Raanta]

expects w/minor inducement of 2 picks [3rds?] can have LV take Ward off your hands

for the first time, i've added a poster to my ignore list.

way too much to take in, and it happens in so many trade threads...Canes are looking for simple 1-1 trade if even Hanifin is dealt, which i'm very skeptical of actually occurring. these overcomplicated and outlandish proposals that end up in almost every thread will finally come to a stop...for me at least.

 

[bernmeister]

Increment 2


McD 4.7 reduced 1.7 to 3+ Zuc 4.5 reduced 1.5 to 3 + Halverson 772,500+ NYR 2018 1st = 6.772,500
for
Sam Reinhart 894,167 + expiring EKane 5.26 + Wild 2017 2nd + Buf 2017 2nd and 2018 1st = 6.154,167

Cap dif is .618,333, eaten by Rangers, virtually =.
Rangers eat 3 in cap hit for 2 yrs but avoid taking back a bad salary and max picks in return, acceptable to Buf to max cap flexibility. Rangers get potential 1C stud still on ELC, possibly ready to bust out. Kane a crapshoot, presume useful in last year of contract. Sabes get stud 1LD they need and versatile legit scorer = instant productivity results. On top of Reinhart, Kane, 2 2nds this year and a flip of 1sts next year is not cheap, but this is immediate quality add of proven commodities.

Sabres lineup:
O’Reilly - Eichel - Zuc
Al Nylander - Girgensons - Ennis
bottom 6 best mesh of minimum 4 of Foligno, McCormick, Larsson, Smith, Malone, Carrier, Deslauriers and possibly remaining deadwood Moulson, Okposo
there are 5 or so non-roster players who may push the bottom 6

McD - Risto
Kulikov - Bogosian
McCabe- Georges

NB - Rangers out
on Increment 1 - w/Canes Rangers improve 1.075m savings to cap
on Increment 2 - w/Sabres Rangers lose .618,333m
.456,667 direct cap benefit to Rangers

However, additionally, in deal 1 w/Canes Rangers eat half on Raanta, Grabner which is .5 + .825 which = 1.325 for 2018 only
AND in deal 2 w/Buf Rangers eat partial on McD 1.7 + Zuc 1.5 = 3.2 for both years, 2018 and 2019
which is indirect cap cost [loss] to Rangers
cost of doing business

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Why in the world would you expect the Canes to move both Hanifin and Faulk? You're way off base, bern.

 

[X66]

S.Reinhart for Hanifin makes sense.

Two players that don't have a dynamic bone in their bodies, two plain players makes a fair trade IMO.

Canes get a 2nd line player for many years.

Sabres get a #4 dman for many years.

Deal.

 

[bernmeister]

for the first time, i've added a poster to my ignore list.

way too much to take in, and it happens in so many trade threads...Canes are looking for simple 1-1 trade if even Hanifin is dealt, which i'm very skeptical of actually occurring. these overcomplicated and outlandish proposals that end up in almost every thread will finally come to a stop...for me at least.

You are at liberty to ignore.

"too much to take in"
people want simple solutions to complex problems
life is not like that, doesn't work
what actually works, complex solutions to complex problems, then smooth the edges as best you can

given that reality, and that there is a rationale to my prop, they are not outlandish. You may disagree w/the rationale, but there is rationale w/some objective basis.

As to "Canes are looking for simple 1-1 trade if even Hanifin is dealt", yeah, well duh.
However, Hanifin for MacKinnon is certainly not happening
and Sabres not rushing to this 1 for 1 either.
They may yet go for upside of Hanifin, but arguably they want more of a sure (established) thing.

Given that, Hurricanes could hold Hanifin, but given their depth and the 1x extra benefit of him being ELC exempt from the ex draft, it makes objective sense to deal him now for more than 1 piece --- if the return is correct

 

[LobsterMagnet19]

Gosh, these Hurricanes fans are gonna be real disappointed when they see the actual return they get for Hanifin from Colorado this summer.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

S.Reinhart for Hanifin makes sense.

Two players that don't have a dynamic bone in their bodies, two plain players makes a fair trade IMO.

Canes get a 2nd line player for many years.

Sabres get a #4 dman for many years.

Deal.

So Hanifin ended this season as a #4 as a 20 year old, yet that's what he tops at? Interesting.

Or were you just taking this opportunity to downplay other team's young players?

 

[bernmeister]

Final increment 3

Rangers projected team/lines

Kreider - Miller - Zib
EKane - SReichart - Pirri/Puempel [who not taken in draft]
Nieves - Hayes - Vesey
Gropp - Lindberg - Fast



although it is tempting to see what Nash looks line w/Reichart + Kane
deal Nash to SJ for ELC RD Bergman + acceptable pick + cap relief, most of 7.8

obtain Dumba for picks
possibly sign Shattenkirk short term 1 yr, 2 max, 7m per
resign Smith

results in
Hanifin/Skjei as 1st/2nd pair LD [unless Skjei, a lefty, plays right side]
Graves, Bereglazov LDs who may play right side
LD Sean Day a year-ish away
Neal Pionk competes at RD
Bergman ditto
trade picks, a 1st + for Dumba
and possibly 1 year, 2 yr max only at 7m per, Shattenkirk

assume
Hanifin - Faulk
Skeji - Dumba
Smith - Shatty
Bereglazov, Graves, etc

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Gosh, these Hurricanes fans are gonna be real disappointed when they see the actual return they get for Hanifin from Colorado this summer.

Ironic comment coming from a fanbase where the expectations for the return on Duchene have been astronomical.

 

[bernmeister]

Why in the world would you expect the Canes to move both Hanifin and Faulk? You're way off base, bern.

It was expedient to create fewer moving pieces = realistic chance trade may get done

Your 6 Ds EVEN WITHOUT Hani - Faulk is impressive. The top pair is already legit 1st line

the succeeding 4 are L-R balanced
They will gel together just fine

Even if I'm wrong, you have more than enough to pick up a stop gap vet like NY's Smith, e.g.,

 

[X66]

So Hanifin ended this season as a #4 as a 20 year old, yet that's what he tops at? Interesting.

Or were you just taking this opportunity to downplay other team's young players?

I've watched enough of both players to be confident with my assessment.

Not like it's a knock to call a player a 2nd liner/4th dman. Those are coveted pieces throughout the NHL.

Hanifin never had, nor ever will have that star offensive ability to take him into that #1 role.

 

[bernmeister]

Ironic comment coming from a fanbase where the expectations for the return on Duchene have been astronomical.

BBA, as this thread winds down, the prop I came up with and finalized with input from you and others was the only one agreed upon.

MacK is definitely not happening, and it seems S. Reinhart is not either.

As I noted to Rod the Bawd

Faulk is nice, but not critical inclusion for NYR in modified prop.

I also invite you to see if you can resurrect it, updating for the Ott 3rd that went to Chicago for Darling. While you are at it, see if we can reduce the number of parts.

All best and thanks

Will catch up over w/e

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've watched enough of both players to be confident with my assessment.

Not like it's a knock to call a player a 2nd liner/4th dman. Those are coveted pieces throughout the NHL.

Hanifin never had, nor ever will have that star offensive ability to take him into that #1 role.

Meh...People said the same about Ryan Suter early in his career. Was viewed as a non-dynamic, limited offensive potential player. There were even many that said the same about Victor Hedman early in his career, as well as countless others. Maybe his offense won't develop, but frankly, as a 20 year old playing in his 2nd season post draft, he already put up 29 points. Even if he only gets that up to 35-40 points, he still can be a #2 or #3 with those types of numbers.

Curious though, what do you consider Morgan Rielly? Do you view him as a #4?

 

[bleedgreen]

It's just not a hard concept. The canes aren't looking for a package, they're looking for one top line player if they're going to move Hanifin. Not a package. Hanifin isn't for sale, they're trying to do something like Jones for Ryjo. If it's there it's there, if it isn't they'll be happy to keep Hanifin.

I'd be happy with Duchene, though I don't think the canes will do it because of worrying about losing him too soon. A valid concern but I'd be happy with the player.

 

[Ararana]

Gosh, these Hurricanes fans are gonna be real disappointed when they see the actual return they get for Hanifin from Colorado this summer.

Ironic comment coming from a fanbase where the expectations for the return on Duchene have been astronomical.

Can't we all just get along . None of us know what the hell is going to happen this offseason. Anyone who says differently is either a GM in disguise or they're fooling themselves.

Since you don't seem to care to look it up, here's the list of NHL caliber dmen on the Canes that are EXEMPT from the expansion draft:

D Noah Hanifin
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brett Pesce
D Haydn Fleury
D Roland McKeown

Serious golf clap to your GM for that, I'm sure some luck was involved but dayum!

 

[HiddenInLight]

Meh...People said the same about Ryan Suter early in his career. Was viewed as a non-dynamic, limited offensive potential player. There were even many that said the same about Victor Hedman early in his career, as well as countless others. Maybe his offense won't develop, but frankly, as a 20 year old playing in his 2nd season post draft, he already put up 29 points. Even if he only gets that up to 35-40 points, he still can be a #2 or #3 with those types of numbers.

Curious though, what do you consider Morgan Rielly? Do you view him as a #4?

It's not like Reinhart is a scrub either. He's just as young and also still growing as a player. Honestly, I think Reinhart shows more growth on CAR's team then BUF. Hanifin is one of the few players I'd trade reinhart for and I feel like this is a win/win trade. A young forward that can score who is currently a 2nd liner that can play wing and center for a young dman who is currently a 2nd pairing guy who has some scoring ability and who is also improving. What's not to like about that deal from either side?

 

[Chan790]

Gosh, these Hurricanes fans are gonna be real disappointed when they see the actual return they get for Hanifin from Colorado this summer.

Nobody's going to be disappointed with Nate MacKinnon. Less than that and we'll keep Hanifin.

We're under no obligation or need to move him. Hanifin is only getting moved if it makes sense for the Canes...nothing less than MacK makes sense in a trade with Colorado.