Pre-Game Talk: NHL Expansion Draft (6-18-17 - 6-21-17) VGK Selects James Neal

[Armourboy]

I must have missed that. Did that come from Poile or Neal?

And see my previous post. Losing Calle and Fisher retiring gives us expansion team type center depth or worse. It was a judgment call. The knee jerk "this was stupid" reactions are just silly.

It was Poile:

"James had a much bigger contract and he only had one year left before he was an unrestricted free agent. We didn’t have any negotiations, but there was no guarantees that we would be able to keep him. It really was a business decision. It was as simple as that.”

So it was a business decision in which he didn't even bother to ask one of the parties involved in the business, about the business.

I'll be honest, I'm not sold that we were that much worse off if we did lose Jarnkrok and Fisher retired. I mean if Fisher still retires and Jarnkrok ends up being our 2C, I don't think that Center corp strikes fear in the hearts of anyone.

 

[Lateralous]

Lol. That is insane.

If that is true, it also reveals how silly Mcphee thought the Preds choice was. Can you imagine trying to trade Calle Jarnkrok for a 1st, 2nd, and 2 prospects?!?!

This is exactly it. For whatever reason, Poile miscalculated the value of Neal to Vegas. There is no world where McPhee could have ever asked for that package for a 3C but a first line wing with an expiring contract that they can even retain on if need be is going to be a huge trade chip.

After watching the other deals Vegas accepted last night, had Jarnkrok been the one exposed, you would think the 1st rounder would have been enough to entice Vegas to take Smith or Wilson. Smith has been a 20 goal scorer so Vegas would have been getting a future asset + someone who at least helps the on ice product next year. Then you keep both Neal and Jarnkrok and you get some additional cap space to address 2C. Maybe McPhee had it out for Poile and that wouldn't have happened but based on everything else I saw transpire, it certainly seems like Poile should have been able to get out of this down only Smith/Wilson and a 1st and still have the extra cap space to address 2C that some of you have mentioned in defending the move with Neal.

 

[RaiderDoug]

It was Poile:

"James had a much bigger contract and he only had one year left before he was an unrestricted free agent. We didn’t have any negotiations, but there was no guarantees that we would be able to keep him. It really was a business decision. It was as simple as that.â€

So it was a business decision in which he didn't even bother to ask one of the parties involved in the business, about the business.

I don't know if it's fair to Poile to say that he had no idea what Neal would want.

These contracts are pretty much standard - X player at X age with X production for X term usually gets somewhere around Y contract. That's pretty much the same across the league.

Heck, we can look around the league and come up with comparables for Neal's next contract pretty easily.

If Poile was uncomfortable with Neal's likely demands, even having not officially entered into negotiations, then the move could make some sense.

 

[Armourboy]

This is exactly it. For whatever reason, Poile miscalculated the value of Neal to Vegas. There is no world where McPhee could have ever asked for that package for a 3C but a first line wing with an expiring contract that they can even retain on if need be is going to be a huge trade chip.

After watching the other deals Vegas accepted last night, had Jarnkrok been the one exposed, you would think the 1st rounder would have been enough to entice Vegas to take Smith or Wilson. Then you keep both Neal and Jarnkrok and you get some additional cap space to address 2C.

Considering what little it took to keep him from taking either of the Wilds Dmen, I think Jarnkrok wouldn't have been that hard to keep.

Well that's assuming McPhee wasn't using a bit of revenge over the Forsberg thing and wouldn't have really done any decent deal with Poile.

 

[Armourboy]

I don't know if it's fair to Poile to say that he had no idea what Neal would want.

These contracts are pretty much standard - X player at X age with X production for X term usually gets somewhere around Y contract. That's pretty much the same across the league.

Heck, we can look around the league and come up with comparables for Neal's next contract pretty easily.

If Poile was uncomfortable with Neal's likely demands, even having not officially entered into negotiations, then the move could make some sense.

But you don't know if you never ask. I'll just reference the old saying about what happens when you assume things.

 

[PredsV82]

I don't know if it's fair to Poile to say that he had no idea what Neal would want.

These contracts are pretty much standard - X player at X age with X production for X term usually gets somewhere around Y contract. That's pretty much the same across the league.

Heck, we can look around the league and come up with comparables for Neal's next contract pretty easily.

If Poile was uncomfortable with Neal's likely demands, even having not officially entered into negotiations, then the move could make some sense.

thank you. Anyone who says Neal would have taken a very team friendly deal if only Poile had asked is just being silly. And its also quite possible(Id say even likely) that Poile and Neals agent did talk, but didn't actually "negotiate" (which would entail offers and counteroffers)and Poile is being a gentleman and not throwing Neal under the bus by revealing what his contract demands were going to be

Neals next deal is going to be his last "big" contract. He and his agent would be damn fools to take a short term, modest dollar deal a year in advance when there are always desperate GMs who will sign UFAs to ridiculous contracts every summer.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Lots of people talking about McPhee getting revenge, sticking it to Poile because of Forsberg... There were two GMs who made that trade, it's not like McPhee didn't have a choice.

That said, I don't doubt that he is holding a grudge just because of the crap he's taken from fans and media after that trade. Of course, that's why he's not a great GM. He wasn't that good in Washington, and he's not going to suddenly be that good in Vegas. I don't know how so many people see what he's done there so far and are putting him in a pedestal as a top GM.

 

[Lateralous]

I don't know if it's fair to Poile to say that he had no idea what Neal would want.

These contracts are pretty much standard - X player at X age with X production for X term usually gets somewhere around Y contract. That's pretty much the same across the league.

Heck, we can look around the league and come up with comparables for Neal's next contract pretty easily.

If Poile was uncomfortable with Neal's likely demands, even having not officially entered into negotiations, then the move could make some sense.

Honestly, I think the shrewd move would be to walk away from Neal after next season, because he is getting up there in age and you don't want a Bobby Ryan situation on your cap. That being said, even if you are planning to walk away from Neal next year, given where the Predators are in their cup window, I would argue one year of a top line wing playing for a new contract is more important than protecting your 3C.

Either way, the issue I think most of us have is that Poile put himself in the worst possible position to negotiate himself out of this right off the bat.

 

[Armourboy]

thank you. Anyone who says Neal would have taken a very team friendly deal if only Poile had asked is just being silly.

Neals next deal is going to be his last "big" contract. He and his agent would be damn fools to take a short term, modest dollar deal a year inn advance when there are always desperate GMs who will sign UFAs to ridiculous contracts every summer.

I didn't say he would, but if you stand up and say you made a business decision and didn't even bother to find out the other half of the business? I mean damn. At least then you got " In preliminary talks it just seemed he was looking for more than what would have fit our salary structure".

One sounds like you actually did make a business decision, the other sounds like a convenient excuse because you gave up one of your best players in an expansion draft.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

thank you. Anyone who says Neal would have taken a very team friendly deal if only Poile had asked is just being silly. And its also quite possible(Id say even likely) that Poile and Neals agent did talk, but didn't actually "negotiate" (which would entail offers and counteroffers)and Poile is being a gentleman and not throwing Neal under the bus by revealing what his contract demands were going to be

Neals next deal is going to be his last "big" contract. He and his agent would be damn fools to take a short term, modest dollar deal a year in advance when there are always desperate GMs who will sign UFAs to ridiculous contracts every summer.

I agree. Center depth (especially if Fish retires) is brutal and the cost of keeping a decent 3C was 1 year of Neal.

I do really hope Poile has a plan in place for UFA's/possible trades, however. While we do pick up a good bit of cap room, most teams also dropped some committed cash to Vegas. Plus, isn't the cap going up $2 mil?

 

[PredsV82]

Considering what little it took to keep him from taking either of the Wilds Dmen, I think Jarnkrok wouldn't have been that hard to keep.

Well that's assuming McPhee wasn't using a bit of revenge over the Forsberg thing and wouldn't have really done any decent deal with Poile.

why do you assume that a deal to protect Jarnkrok wasn't discussed? Or that it would have been reasonable? It was reported that Poile was explicitly trying to make a deal to protect either Neal to Jarnkrok.

So the deal for jarnkrok must have been equally ridiculous or Poile would have made that deal, exposed Jarnkrok and protected neal.

Im thinking McPhee wasn't going to let Poile off the hook without a massive overpayment. Whether thats because of the Forsberg trade or not is known only to McPhee

 

[Armourboy]

Honestly, I think the shrewd move would be to walk away from Neal after next season, because he is getting up there in age and you don't want a Bobby Ryan situation on your cap. That being said, even if you are planning to walk away from Neal next year, given where the Predators are in their cup window, I would argue one year of a top line wing playing for a new contract is more important than protecting your 3C.

Either way, the issue I think most of us have is that Poile put himself in the worst possible position to negotiate himself out of this right off the bat.

Ultimately that was my problem with the whole thing. Exposing Jarnkrok at least gave you a reasonable chance of making a deal and maybe even coming out a bit ahead. Exposing Neal pretty much left you in, pay us big or go home.

I mean the Wild figured out how to keep both of their exposed Dmen, but Poile couldn't have been able to figure out how to keep Jarnkrok?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

...
Forsberg Johansen Arvidsson
Fiala XXXXX XXXXX
Smith Jarnkrok Wilson
Insert names in a hat and pull them out

You've got the cap space to go after Hanzal or Bonino, at least. They aren't exactly ideal 2C material, and they are probably going to command stupid money and term in a UFA year where the pickings are beyond slim. At least the Preds are Cup finalists, so they ought to have more allure than some destinations.

Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($7M) - Arvidsson ($4M)
Fiala ($0.863M) - Hanzal/Bonino ($5M) - Aberg ($1M)
Wilson ($3.9375M) - Jarnkrok ($2M) - Smith ($4.25M)
Watson ($1M) - Fisher ($2M)/Sissons ($0.625M) - Gaudreau ($0.650M)
McLeod ($0.8M) - Salomaki ($0.6125M)

Josi ($4M) - Ellis ($2.5M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Subban ($9M)
Irwin ($0.65M) - Weber ($0.65M)
Bitetto ($0.6125M)

Rinne ($7M)
Saros ($0.6925M)

= $68.6M

Still with an extra F in there. Having Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm at about half what they deserve is a huuuuge bonus. Your 4th liners and bottom pairing make proper salaries for these roles, where a lot of teams are overboard with bad contracts or fading vets over-occupying that cap space. Preds are in amazing shape compared to most teams.

With a $75M cap you can throw stupid money at Hanzal or Bonino, pay the RFAs or Fisher even more than I have pegged there, and still be laughing on the cap.

Maybe throw a 1-year show-me $750k deal on somebody like Desharnais as well... he has good character and attitude and has been a productive 2C in the past (getting to be distant past), but at that price if he doesn't show anything in camp you can just send him down, it's no-risk. C Depth is covered in case of injury.

 

[Armourboy]

why do you assume that a deal to protect Jarnkrok wasn't discussed? Or that it would have been reasonable? It was reported that Poile was explicitly trying to make a deal to protect either Neal to Jarnkrok.

So the deal for jarnkrok must have been equally ridiculous or Poile would have made that deal, exposed Jarnkrok and protected neal.

Im thinking McPhee wasn't going to let Poile off the hook without a massive overpayment. Whether thats because of the Forsberg trade or not is known only to McPhee

Actually we don't know that it was equally ridiculous, it may have just been so based on Jarnkrok's actual value. The thing is though until Poile put his list out McPhee could ask for anything, especially if he was hoping Poile would expose Neal. After the list is out that's when the real value would have taken hold, because then McPhee knows what his option is, essentially a choice of younger 3rd line Centers and Wingers.

Like I said, I have a really hard time believing that the Wild figured out how to keep both top 4dmen, and we couldn't figure out a deal for a 3C.

 

[Lateralous]

Actually we don't know that it was equally ridiculous, it may have just been so based on Jarnkrok's actual value. The thing is though until Poile put his list out McPhee could ask for anything, especially if he was hoping Poile would expose Neal. After the list is out that's when the real value would have taken hold, because then McPhee knows what his option is, essentially a choice of younger 3rd line Centers and Wingers.

Like I said, I have a really hard time believing that the Wild figured out how to keep both top 4dmen, and we couldn't figure out a deal for a 3C.

Exactly. Neal is the perfect player for Vegas because they can put him on the opening night roster to help put a decent product on the ice and then trade him for maximum value at the deadline. If Vegas had to choose between one of Jarnkrok/Aberg/Sissions or a 1st round pick and Wilson/Smith, I think they probably go with the later because you get a serviceable player for the upcoming season AND another 1st round pick to build upon.

 

[Legionnaire11]

There's no way Poile would throw $5M at Hanzal or Bonino, probably not more than $3.5 and even then, neither player is worth it, or a significant upgrade on what we have. Bonino is closer, but I'd rather roll the dice with Sissons and Jarnkrok.

Trade is the only way to get close to the 2C that we really need.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

How can any of you tell me you can't at least understand Poiles thinking here, especially if Poile had an idea that Neal was going to want an unreasonable contract after next year?

Nope. I can't understand it.

Anyone who wants to argue for what Poile did, go to ownthepuck.com and compare Jarnkrok to a 2nd line center and a 3rd line center archetype. You will see he is an average third liner and a well below average 2nd liner.

Now do the same for Neal. Compare him to a 2nd line winger or a 1st line winger. You will find he is an above average 2nd line wing and an average 1st line winger.

Losing Neal for nothing is the worst move Poole has ever made. Really hope he didn't screw the pooch without a plan. Cause I gotta tell you, dude didn't look like he had a plan last night.

 

[token grinder]

I still think-wing wise you have to ask yourself these questions-

Can Fiala pot 20-25 goals next season to replace Neal's production?
Can Aberg pot 10 to replace Fiala's?

If you can answer yes to those questions, losing Neal doesn't hurt so much.

Off-ice is another story. If you believe Johansen is ready to step up and fill that void and hold guys accountable in the room, it soften that blow a bit as well.

The glaring need is 2C which everyone can see. If we use Neals $$$ towards that this team is fine. If Poile goes the wing route and lands an Oshie with Neal's $$$ than all we did was get younger and all the wings drop a line.

I am more than happy to see the reigning GM of the Year do his thing.

And if we ice a roster worse than we did last year, then I will break out the pitchfork

 

[Roman Yoshi]

why do you assume that a deal to protect Jarnkrok wasn't discussed? Or that it would have been reasonable? It was reported that Poile was explicitly trying to make a deal to protect either Neal to Jarnkrok.

So the deal for jarnkrok must have been equally ridiculous or Poile would have made that deal, exposed Jarnkrok and protected neal.

Im thinking McPhee wasn't going to let Poile off the hook without a massive overpayment. Whether thats because of the Forsberg trade or not is known only to McPhee

That makes it worse. If you aren't getting off the hook, you absolutely protect the more valuable asset.

 

[PerdFan]

Well I told you so.

I think it is safe to say at this point that McPhee pretty much used this draft as a chance to kind of stick it to Poile, so I have a very good feeling that no matter who was up there they were going to get taken. Sadly Poile fell right into the trap.

Now reading the fact that this was a business decision is ok. Reading the fact that he did zero business with Neal before this decision doesn't make me feel any better about Poile's decision at this point. You know the draft is coming, you know you are going to be exposing either Jarnkrok or Neal, but you do nothing to figure out what kind of numbers Neal is going to be looking for. That's mistake number 2 of this whole mess.

Finally at the end of the day Poile goes back to his roots, he chose cheap over good, and yet people are on here expecting others to wait and be hopeful about the free agency period?

So what is going to be the excuse if he doesn't get anyone? What are fans expected to wait on next before they can overreact to something? We back to hoping in one hand and crapping in the other? It sure as hell sounds like it from Poile's comments.

This was a stupid move, there is zero doubt about that. Now we wait to see if he can make up for it in some way. He better have one hell of a busy summer planned. My expectations for next year are to get back to the finals, but he took a step back last night on that one.

Our window is now, and he just shot a hole in one of them.

Neal is 30, expensive, is going to be even more expensive with his next contract and Poile had no guarantee that he would actually re-sign with NSH for a decent cap hit and low enough term. It was a smart move for the future of this team. Does it suck [MOD]? Absolutely.

Center depth is key for this team (have you forgotten the playoffs?) and there is no guaranteed Cs coming up.
McPhee was getting his pound of flesh one way or another. I'm just glad Poile didn't mortgage the farm to retain and a soon to be UFA.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I, for one, hope Fisher retires. Don't know if we can get back to that level this year. He is such a good guy. Want him to go out on top as he deserves. Guess we will have to wait and see.

The crazy season has begun. Hopefully Poole corrects his error and lands us a center.

How is giving up Jarnkrok mortgaging the farm?

 

[tampa pred]

I mean, Neal didn't exactly light it up in the playoffs. Granted, Jarnkrok was worse but Neal wasn't that great either, especially when you look at his ice time and the goals he scored and how much he actually contributed to setting them up.

First goal - Hit him and bounced in off Allen

Second goal - Wrist shot from 50 feet away that Allen couldn't see because a defender was in the way. Nice placement but more luck than skill.

Third goal - Subban made a perfect pass that hit his tape on a 5 on 3 and he had an open net to shoot in.

Fourth goal - Ekholm makes a strong drive to the net. Scramble ends up with Ekholm getting it back. Gets it to Subban who once again puts a perfect pass right on to Neal's tape. Neal one times it off Perry's stupid arm and in.

Fifth goal - Johansen dangles, Arvidsson sets a screen right in front of Gibson. Gibson has no idea if there's a pass or shot, Johansen passes down to Neal and the net is literally wide open, like he doesn't even shoot it, he just kind of pushes it in. I remember watching that and thinking there's no way this goal is going to count because Gibson is so far out of position and that goal was so easy that Arvidsson had to have interfered with him.

Sixth goal - Arvidsson made the play by fighting for the puck behind the net. He was able to shoot it off the back of the cage and it bounced right to Neal by the side of it. Murray didn't know where it was so it was an easy chip in.

Like I said, Neal was better than Jarnkrok in the playoffs but let's not act like Neal was really good in the playoffs, because he wasn't.

He scored four of those goals with a broken hand.

I like Poile and think that he deserved the GM of the Year award, but why would he not even have started negotiations with Neal before making this decision. How does he know that Neal was going to demand a huge deal? Neal might have given a discount to stay. He should have at least known this before losing him for nothing.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

He scored four of those goals with a broken hand.

I like Poile and think that he deserved the GM of the Year award, but why would he not even have started negotiations with Neal before making this decision. How does he know that Neal was going to demand a huge deal? Neal might have given a discount to stay. He should have at least known this before losing him for nothing.

He couldn't negotiate until July 1. And this will be Neal's last big contract. I think it's safe to say he's going to be asking for a lot of money and term.

 

[tampa pred]

There's no way Poile would throw $5M at Hanzal or Bonino, probably not more than $3.5 and even then, neither player is worth it, or a significant upgrade on what we have. Bonino is closer, but I'd rather roll the dice with Sissons and Jarnkrok.

Trade is the only way to get close to the 2C that we really need.

This. We certainly don't need three 3C's. If we were going to do that, Poile should have just let Vegas take Jarnkrok...

 

[PerdFan]

I know you're not supposed to necessarily say you heard something from a source with the org., but I've been told Vegas wanted a 2018 1st + 2017 2nd + 2 prospects.

Knowing that, im okay not protecting him with a trade.

Sad to see him go.

I think this is 100% correct and why Poile did what he did.

Can you imagine giving that up for Jarnkrok??? Can you imagine giving that up for 1 year of Neal at an affordable price? Hell no! Anyone that cares anything about the future of this team could never imagine paying that high a price. McPhee gave Poile the big ol' FU finger for the Forsberg debacle with this and now we're left with the #hottake apocalypse.

Poile did the right thing