Pre-Game Talk: NHL Expansion Draft (6-18-17 - 6-21-17) VGK Selects James Neal

[Soundgarden]

Yeah, there's no reason to protect Neal over Ellis.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

The only way 7/3/1 would make sense is if you traded a defenseman, preferably for forwards and an expansion exempt D prospect or something.

 

[alexmanu]

Is there potential for us to get Kovalchuk, or is that too far out?

 

[Drake744]

The only way 7/3/1 would make sense is if you traded a defenseman, preferably for forwards and an expansion exempt D prospect or something.

The only time 7/3/1 made sense was mid-season when we were throwing around the idea of getting Duchene and losing Ekholm in the process.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

Is there potential for us to get Kovalchuk, or is that too far out?

Had this discussion with a friend yesterday. Would love Kovy, but we have no reason to believe he'd come here. In no criteria (that we can know at least) are we a top three team.

If he just wants to cup, we aren't a top three team to go to for that. I know people will get mad at me about this since we made the cup finals, but we were the sixteen seed. We had the exact same regular season record as the New York Islanders. Are we top 10? Absolutely. But if he is trying to Kevin Durant this, we aren't top three.

We aren't a top three limelight market, despite the growth of the game here.

We aren't top three if he wants to play with other Russians.

We won't be top three in being able to dump a truck load of money on him.

We aren't top three as far as most fun linemates (McDavid/Matthews/etc. would be far more enticing).

We aren't top three as far as connections from his past. New Jersey, Toronto with Lou, etc.

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying there's no logical reason to believe Kovy would choose to play here. If I'm Poile I'm certainly giving him a call though.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I made the mistake of suggesting we leave Neal exposed a month ago and then realized I was in the vast minority on this board. Now that its real, probably 85% of our posters think Poile really blew it. Here's why I don't agree:
- Neal had a bad year by Neal standards. 23 goals, and consistently inconsistent. While I'll agree Neal's a "sniper" (defined as a guy who scores high-end skill goals), he did a lot less sniping this year. He actually missed Ribs more than anyone.
- We only had him for one more year. People have said, "yeah but we could have resigned him to a longer deal". If that's really true, we can still do it after this year when's he's a UFA. If we kept him and then tried to sign him again, we'd be competing with all other teams for a UFA. So, we have the same chance now of having Neal on the team in 2018-2019 than we would have if we kept him.
- His $5mm cap hit gives us spending money to improve the team, either thru free agency or via trade where we can handle more salary incoming.
Although much better than when he first got here, Neal was still a hot head who took dumb penalties. On the spectrum, he was a lot closer to Ribs than say, Yarny, in temperament.
- We're shallow in centers and Yarny scores 15 goals and "plays with detail in his game" to borrow a Trotzian term. Not a great 2C but can be plugged in as needed. Very good 3C who kills penalties. Yeah there are others out there like him, but having that asset for 5 years at a flat $2mm per year is above average value.
- And finally, Poile has earned the "benefit of the doubt". I will choose to have faith in him

Duchene is the medicine we need. It would make all this heartache go away.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I made the mistake of suggesting we leave Neal exposed a month ago and then realized I was in the vast minority on this board. Now that its real, probably 85% of our posters think Poile really blew it. Here's why I don't agree:

Points I agree with:

- Neal had a bad year by Neal standards. 23 goals, and consistently inconsistent. While I'll agree Neal's a "sniper" (defined as a guy who scores high-end skill goals), he did a lot less sniping this year. He actually missed Ribs more than anyone.
- And finally, Poile has earned the "benefit of the doubt". I will choose to have faith in him
-Duchene is the medicine we need. It would make all this heartache go away.
-Although much better than when he first got here, Neal was still a hot head who took dumb penalties. On the spectrum, he was a lot closer to Ribs than say, Yarny, in temperament.

Points I disagree with and why:

- We only had him for one more year. People have said, "yeah but we could have resigned him to a longer deal". If that's really true, we can still do it after this year when's he's a UFA. If we kept him and then tried to sign him again, we'd be competing with all other teams for a UFA. So, we have the same chance now of having Neal on the team in 2018-2019 than we would have if we kept him.

The vast majority of UFAs re-sign with their teams. Do you really think we have the same chance to sign Neal now, after we left him unprotected and shipped him off to an expansion team, as we did when he was on our roster? You're assuming all 31 teams have an equal shot at every UFA which is just not the case.

- His $5mm cap hit gives us spending money to improve the team, either thru free agency or via trade where we can handle more salary incoming.

The best we can hope to do with that 5m is, IMO, find a Neal replacement. It would be a miracle to find someone of his caliber for under 5m unless we give up serious assets in a trade. And even if we do, their next contract will be bigger.

- We're shallow in centers and Yarny scores 15 goals and "plays with detail in his game" to borrow a Trotzian term. Not a great 2C but can be plugged in as needed. Very good 3C who kills penalties. Yeah there are others out there like him, but having that asset for 5 years at a flat $2mm per year is above average value.

Jarny isn't a "very good" 3C. he's a marginal 3C. He's fine defensively but not great. He has had 31 and 30 points the last two years, while Neal has had, what, 9 straight 20 goal seasons. I agree Krok is on a good value contract but he isn't by any means a "very good" 3C but any statistical measure.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

If he was a very good 3C, I don't think many people would be arguing over this choice, I know I wouldn't. Problem is, he's a low end 3C.

 

[Armourboy]

Here's the problem with the cap space arguments, Poile has to find someone to give the money too first and with this FA market, good luck with that.

I like Jarnkrok, but he is weak and not great offensively. If we go into this season hoping him, Aberg, Fiala, and Smith carry us, well this may be a nail biter.

I just don't have as much faith in Poile as some of you do, and I've never had it. Tbh I thought the last couple of years has been the exception and not the norm, but we shall see.

 

[King Weber]

It's gonna be Pekka, JOFA and the Top 4 that will do the carrying. If Smith, Aberg, Jarnkrok, Fiala, Wilson and Sissons can each up their production even a little and get us some secondary scoring, I think we're in fairly good shape still.

That's a pretty big if though.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

If he was a very good 3C, I don't think many people would be arguing over this choice, I know I wouldn't. Problem is, he's a low end 3C.

I hear you but I think the coaching staff values Yarny more than the fan base. All the coaches (even back under Trotz) gush about his hockey sense and ability to be in the right place. Does all the "little things".

Yes he's weak on the puck but he's still young and can bulk up and fill out. He has attributes that are tough to teach.

Bottom line, the front office and the coaches value him higher than his raw stats.

I will bet you when we look back on this and we compare 5 years for Yarny versus 1 more potential year for Neal, plus what Poile/coaches do to replace Neal, we'll be good with this.

I guess another way to look at it is, if you knew with certainty that Neal was "One & Done" and we weren't going to flip him at the deadline, would you still protect him and lose Yarny?

Yet another angle: Would you trade a 1st Rd pick at the deadline to get him back for the stretch run next year? That would also test the "UFA's are more likely to sign with their existing team" theorem.

 

[MrJoshua]

Yes he's weak on the puck but he's still young and can bulk up and fill out. He has attributes that are tough to teach.

He's 25, and will be 26 before the season starts (9/25). It's not like he's going to get much bigger than he is now, if any. An additional 10-15 pounds of muscle would do him a world of good, though.

 

[Predsboro]

Exactly- excellent post, basically that is my whole stance on this in a nutshell, but you did a much better job with it than I have in my posts

Dude ... REALLY??? There you go again telling us what posts are excellent. Stop telling us what to think! [/sarcasm]

 

[glenngineer]

Protect the top 6 forward even if he's going to leave. He's got more value than an average number 3 center. So now we have to fill a spot in the top 6 AND still need a number 2 center.

If we fill the number 2 center slot we have a solid chance of returning to the finals.

Also, why protect Krok. If he's slotted for the 3C slot where do you put Sissons? And Gaudreau for that matter.

I've tried to look at the silver lining in this and we're assuming Fiala comes back healthy and Aberg can step in and be productive as well as picking up a 2C. That's a lot of things falling in to place.

Keep Neal and the only thing you need is a number 2C without the pressure on Fiala and Aberg to produce.

That's just me though.

 

[Osprey]

I'm still flabbergasted at everyone who acts like this was just idiocy. The only way it's a true "blunder" is if Poole exposed Neal under the assumption that he could work out a reasonable deal to keep him. I don't think that's true, because apparently PoIle tried the whole week before the list had to be submitted to work out that deal.

He kept trying after the list was submitted, though, and reportedly offered "a lot" to convince McPhee not to take him. That suggests that he did think that he could still work out a deal.

We have a lot of cap flex now, even after a Joey and Arvy re-sign.

Cap space isn't better than having good players taking it up. If it were, then the Preds would be in even better shape if they traded Johansen and Arvidsson. They'd then be swimming in ~$27M of cap flex. Think of the possibilities. The Preds are not better because they've only opened up cap space. They'll be better only if they use that cap space better than they did before, and the fact that Neal was a pretty good use of that cap space makes that challenge harder.

 

[Osprey]

GMGM played Poile on this one. Poile tried to work out a deal to protect Krok prior to submitting the list. GMGM asked for a ridiculous amount , forcing Poile to make a decision in hopes that he would make the monumental error in exposing Neal. If Neal is exposed, GM gets the best player/asset in the draft. If Krok is exposed, he can still negotiate a reasonable deal to allow Poile to keep him.

Yeah, I suspect that Poile may've initially been planning on protecting Neal and tried to make a trade to protect Jarnkrok, but freaked when McPhee wouldn't accept anything reasonable and changed his mind to protecting Jarnkrok, playing right into what McPhee wanted him to do. It may've been best to have just stuck by his decision, protected Neal and exposed Jarnkrok, and then seen what McPhee would accept to not take Jarnkrok. It could be that he wasn't even that interested in Jarnkrok and was eyeing someone like Aberg if he couldn't get Neal, in which case it might not have taken much to convince him to take Aberg. At the very least, if worst came to worst, Poile could've still traded Neal to him in exchange for picking someone expendable like McLeod or even just traded Neal for Jarnkrok after Jarnkrok was picked, since we know that McPhee coveted Neal more.

Please tell me what the problem here is- this is a message board- the whole point of it is to debate each others opinions.

It is, but it's not "debating" others' opinions when you twist and mischaracterize them, especially without quoting them (so that people can't hold you accountable for your caricature), and then, when corrected, claim that that's what they meant even if they didn't use the words that you put in their mouthes. That's not "debating" others' opinions (at least not honorably). That's more like ranting about them. If you would simply quote people that you disagree with and actually respond to what they say--not hyperbolize or assume that they mean something else--then you'll be debating in good faith and no one will have a problem with it.

 

[klt2001]

Unless there is some behind the scene reason, think this was a bad move by Poile. Would have kept James Neal over Jarnkrok. A player like Jarnkrok can be replaced alot easier than a sniper player like James Neal. We were weak offensively in the forward department down the stretch in the playoffs against the Penguins and now I feel we just became weaker unless there is a plan to get another top forward scorer to replace Neal in the works.

 

[klt2001]

The only plus about keeping Jarnkrok over James Neal is that Jarnkrok is better than Neal defensively and has a much better +/- than Neal who had the highest negative +/- (-10 in the regular season and -8 in the playoffs) compared to our other players even though he had to play top minutes and against other top players. If we can find a player w/ Neal's scoring ability but who is also better defensively than I think we will be okay.

 

[drwpreds]

It is, but it's not "debating" others' opinions when you twist and mischaracterize them, especially without quoting them (so that people can't hold you accountable for your caricature), and then, when corrected, claim that that's what they meant even if they didn't use the words that you put in their mouthes. That's not "debating" others' opinions (at least not honorably). That's more like ranting about them. If you would simply quote people that you disagree with and actually respond to what they say--not hyperbolize or assume that they mean something else--then you'll be debating in good faith and no one will have a problem with it.

Sorry but none of that is true whatsoever. And I do believe you are trying to tell me how to post. I guarantee you if I had posted the exact same thing to you that you just posted to me, you would absolutely kill me for it, telling me to stop telling people what to do...

I honestly have no idea why you are so bent out of shape over my posts- it makes no sense.

But whatever, lets just move on- we have clogged up the board enough

 

[Osprey]

The only plus about keeping Jarnkrok over James Neal is that Jarnkrok is better than Neal defensively and has a much better +/- than Neal who had the highest negative +/- (-10 in the regular season and -8 in the playoffs) compared to our other players even though he had to play top minutes and against other top players. If we can find a player w/ Neal's scoring ability but who is also better defensively than I think we will be okay.

I think that a little too much tends to be made of the defensive games of wingers. Defense isn't really their job. It's on the centermen to be the defensively responsible ones on their lines. I'm not concerned with Neal's defense and chalk his poor +/- this past season and playoffs up to playing with Fisher, who's not good (at least not anymore) at defense. A quick look at the year before, 2015-16, shows that Neal was a +27. That's the difference between being centered by Johansen and being centered by Fisher. Going back another year, Neal was a +12. In fact, you have to go all of the way back to 2009-10 to get to Neal's last year with a negative +/-. I think that that strongly suggests that his -10 this past year is more of anomaly than typical for him. Justifying losing him because his -10 means that he's not good defensively is not a good argument, IMO.

 

[klt2001]

I think that a little too much tends to be made of the defensive games of wingers. Defense isn't really their job. It's on the centermen to be the defensively responsible ones on their lines. I'm not concerned with Neal's defense and chalk his poor +/- this past season and playoffs up to playing with Fisher, who's not good (at least not anymore) at defense. A quick look at the year before, 2015-16, shows that Neal was a +27. That's the difference between being centered by Johansen and being centered by Fisher. Going back another year, Neal was a +12. In fact, you have to go all of the way back to 2009-10 to get to Neal's last year with a negative +/-. I think that that strongly suggests that his -10 this past year is more of anomaly than typical for him. Justifying losing him because his -10 means that he's not good defensively is not a good argument, IMO.

Well except for the playoffs, Fisher was +1 in the regular season so that -10 for Neal in the regular season can't all be from being centered by Fisher (more like Ribiero imo) even though I know Neal played top minutes and against top lines. I'm sad to lose Neal but it is what it is and we can't change it so going to just have to make the most of it and hope Poile finds someone w/ similar scoring touch to replace him but also sound defensively as this team still could use more scoring power up front w/ our forwards and limit scoring against. The thing I will miss most is watching the beauty of Neal's goals as they are definitely alot pretty/better than Jarny's and alot of our forwards in general but at the end of the day it isn't pretty goals that wins you a Stanley Cup but just scoring goals when needed/scoring more goals than the opponent, which I feel Neal helped add that to this team for alot of the playoffs just not all of it but helped w/ the run at least and getting to where we got. Going to need to hope Poile gets the right pieces to get the needed scoring and/or clinch scoring to get back to where we were this year w/ our run and to ultimately get the Cup. Only time will tell what the team will look like coming next season. Neal will be missed and was an added plus for the team that was a forward/scoring challenged team before he came along and I wish him the best of luck. Definitely going to need to find a goal scorer to fill his shoes though (whether by trade or by drafting them) to move forward and not backwards in the scoring department cause the past days of being the scoring challenged team are of the past and should stay that way.

 

[Adz]

I just can't get into my usual draft/free agency mode. I'm not used to so much hockey by my own team. I skipped the awards/expansion draft completely and even reading writeups about the goings on just seems way premature. But it isn't, I'm just not ready for it yet. Seems like it should be around a month away!

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

I just can't get into my usual draft/free agency mode. I'm not used to so much hockey by my own team. I skipped the awards/expansion draft completely and even reading writeups about the goings on just seems way premature. But it isn't, I'm just not ready for it yet. Seems like it should be around a month away!

I'm so worn out from the playoffs that I don't even care about the draft this year. Last year I only cared because of the Finnish trio in the top 5, and for the Preds pick, who ended up being Fabbro.

 

[Drake744]

I'm so worn out from the playoffs that I don't even care about the draft this year. Last year I only cared because of the Finnish trio in the top 5, and for the Preds pick, who ended up being Fabbro.

I don't care about the draft much this year because A.) I hope we trade our pick and B.) I'm not a big prospect guy so I don't know much about these guys, especially one who would get drafted as low as us. I know some about a lot of them but not enough to make me care that much.

 

[Adz]

I'm so worn out from the playoffs that I don't even care about the draft this year. Last year I only cared because of the Finnish trio in the top 5, and for the Preds pick, who ended up being Fabbro.

I wonder if it would have been different had we won? Mentally and physically it was a drain. Financially too! Loved it while it was going on, though, except that last game.