Prospect Info: NHL 2017 Entry Draft: Year of the Homegrown Talent

[csk]

Average second round pick has less than a 1/5 (20%) chance to make the NHL for 20 games.


Not saying you are right or wrong. Just context.

Doesn't Stanley have a 5% chance or something though?

 

[Daximus]

Average second round pick has less than a 1/5 (20%) chance to make the NHL for 20 games.


Not saying you are right or wrong. Just context.

True but what is Stanley's chance in most models? Probably less I'd guess.

Edit: If it's what CSK said above than a 2nd rounder is 15% more likely to make the NHL than Stanley is I'd go with the 2nd rounder.

 

[Whileee]

Doesn't Stanley have a 5% chance or something though?

Based on the Projection Project it was 17% in his draft year. I wonder if that might have ticked up a bit with his uptick in production and shot volume in d+1.

 

[kxx]

not defending Stanley at all here but wonder if any of the defenders that would have been available at 22 and 36 (we can use some hindsight and assume Jets would have picked the 'best' of those) have turned out clearly better than Stanley?

It may be too early to be reaffirmed in our disappointment lol. Am rooting for him but the injury really throws a wrench in staying positive.

 

[Daximus]

not defending Stanley at all here but wonder if any of the defenders that would have been available at 22 and 36 (we can use some hindsight and assume Jets would have picked the 'best' of those) have turned out clearly better than Stanley?

It may be too early to be reaffirmed in our disappointment lol. Am rooting for him but the injury really throws a wrench in staying positive.

I wanted Johansen and Clague before the draft. Lucas' production has fallen off but he has transitioned his game to be more responsible. He's looked great this playoffs even though he only has a point. Clague is in every single way a superior defencemen to Stanley though. Shame we passed up the opportunity to draft him.

We can rectify this in my mind by getting Valimaki though.

 

[Daximus]

My Best guess at a mock if all standings stay the same.

Avs: Patrick
Yotes: Hischier
Knights: Vilardi
Nucks: Pettersson
Devils: Mittelstadt
Wings: Liljegren
Stars: Heskeinen
Cats: Tippet
Sabres: Valimaki

Not exactly sure how this will go but the pick I'm not sure about is the Sabres. They may go for whomever is left of Heskeinen or Valimaki or may opt for something else. This gives us the perfect shot at Glass though as I feel like he won't go ahead of Vilardi/Pettersson/Mittlestadt. Panthers may opt for him but they already have a pretty solid C core.

 

[Aavco Cup]

My Best guess at a mock if all standings stay the same.

Avs: Patrick
Yotes: Hischier
Knights: Vilardi
Nucks: Pettersson Rasmussen
Devils: Mittelstadt
Wings: Liljegren
Stars: Heskeinen
Cats: Tippet
Sabres: Valimaki

Not exactly sure how this will go but the pick I'm not sure about is the Sabres. They may go for whomever is left of Heskeinen or Valimaki or may opt for something else. This gives us the perfect shot at Glass though as I feel like he won't go ahead of Vilardi/Pettersson/Mittlestadt. Panthers may opt for him but they already have a pretty solid C core.

Fixed it for you........you know they're gonna troll canucks army

 

[Daximus]

Fixed it for you........you know they're gonna troll canucks army

That would be priceless. Gotta have the Vancity kid.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I wanted Johansen and Clague before the draft. Lucas' production has fallen off but he has transitioned his game to be more responsible. He's looked great this playoffs even though he only has a point. Clague is in every single way a superior defencemen to Stanley though. Shame we passed up the opportunity to draft him.

We can rectify this in my mind by getting Valimaki though.

Watched a lot of Clague and he is not a very good defender at all and if you get physical on him he gives the puck up. Great skater no brains though

 

[Daximus]

Watched a lot of Clague and he is not a very good defender at all and if you get physical on him he gives the puck up. Great skater no brains though

I suppose that's better than being tall and a bad skater with no brains.

 

[mondo3]

My Best guess at a mock if all standings stay the same.

Avs: Patrick
Yotes: Hischier
Knights: Vilardi
Nucks: Pettersson
Devils: Mittelstadt
Wings: Liljegren
Stars: Heskeinen
Cats: Tippet
Sabres: Valimaki

Not exactly sure how this will go but the pick I'm not sure about is the Sabres. They may go for whomever is left of Heskeinen or Valimaki or may opt for something else. This gives us the perfect shot at Glass though as I feel like he won't go ahead of Vilardi/Pettersson/Mittlestadt. Panthers may opt for him but they already have a pretty solid C core.

We're looking at drafting at 13th spot, so you need to add a few more teams to that list. I'd say 0 chance Glass is there when we pick.

 

[JetsFan815]

Watched a lot of Clague and he is not a very good defender at all and if you get physical on him he gives the puck up. Great skater no brains though

Weren't you one of the ones pumping Clague's tires here pre-draft last year? Now when the Jets passed on him he's suddenly "not a very good defender at all". Seems like sour grapes to me.

 

[Daximus]

We're looking at drafting at 13th spot, so you need to add a few more teams to that list. I'd say 0 chance Glass is there when we pick.

At the time of the post we were in the 10th spot. But yeah now with tonights win we are sitting in the 12 spot. With both LA and Carolina leap frogging us. Hard to say who they will pick up. LA is known to draft offensive players with solid defensive games. They could go after Suzuki. Carolina is a bit more of a wild card. Could be wide open for them.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

At the time of the post we were in the 10th spot. But yeah now with tonights win we are sitting in the 12 spot. With both LA and Carolina leap frogging us. Hard to say who they will pick up. LA is known to draft offensive players with solid defensive games. They could go after Suzuki. Carolina is a bit more of a wild card. Could be wide open for them.

Canes need O.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

And 13th got us Morrissey, it ain't all bad.

 

[Whileee]

Weren't you one of the ones pumping Clague's tires here pre-draft last year? Now when the Jets passed on him he's suddenly "not a very good defender at all". Seems like sour grapes to me.

Panel of NHL scouts rank him below Stanley after d+1 season, for what it's worth.

 

[Whileee]

I suppose that's better than being tall and a bad skater with no brains.

Stanley is actually not bad in decision-making, especially with the puck.

 

[Daximus]

Stanley is actually not bad in decision-making, especially with the puck.

I can point to a number of dmen just in his draft year that are better. Many in this years class that are well above his level of decision making.

 

[kxx]

I wanted Johansen and Clague before the draft. Lucas' production has fallen off but he has transitioned his game to be more responsible. He's looked great this playoffs even though he only has a point. Clague is in every single way a superior defencemen to Stanley though. Shame we passed up the opportunity to draft him.

We can rectify this in my mind by getting Valimaki though.

I don't think we will now lol

Clague looks superior and would agree he may be an 'obviously' better player - I was really hoping Cholowski or him or any of the players really would show up for a few games and look promising BEFORE the draft so Chevy and co can be be reminded to not use the same philosophy that lead to the Stanley pick

 

[Daximus]

Panel of NHL scouts rank him below Stanley after d+1 season, for what it's worth.

Honestly not much in my books. Have they watched either of them play this year? I honestly wonder.

 

[kxx]

Fixed it for you........you know they're gonna troll canucks army

Canucks may have moved far enough up now that they can't make a mistake like Rasmussen now.

 

[portamoral]

https://recrutes.ca/meet-your-makar-king-patrick/

have been saying i'd take makar at #2 right behind hischier all along. nice to see someone is as high on him as i am. kid is going to be special.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Weren't you one of the ones pumping Clague's tires here pre-draft last year? Now when the Jets passed on him he's suddenly "not a very good defender at all". Seems like sour grapes to me.

Liked him a lot but I really disliked his season this year. He just hasn't progressed like I would have liked him too. He can skate and is good when he has the puck but he still plays like a player from midget. I hope next year he can mature because he needs too.

He is good value in the 2nd round though

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Deleted all the OT discussion about winning/not-winning/tanking/not-tanking. Keep it on topic, please.

 

[Grind]

not defending Stanley at all here but wonder if any of the defenders that would have been available at 22 and 36 (we can use some hindsight and assume Jets would have picked the 'best' of those) have turned out clearly better than Stanley?

It may be too early to be reaffirmed in our disappointment lol. Am rooting for him but the injury really throws a wrench in staying positive.

Apologies for going ot but:


Samuel Girard, Kyle Clague, Frederic Allard, Sean Day, and Luke Green all were "better" prospects and have continued to trend up. If there was one to pick it was Girard. The annoying part is all could have been had with our initial first, or even our second.

Cholowski, hajek, neimelenain, and dineenall had better odds of success, taken within the first three rounds, but have not improved significantly.

Interestingly all the dmen after Stanley (while technically including Stanley) taken in the first round were pretty poor value picks. The best dmen drafted outside of chychrun we're late second rounders and third rounders.

I don't think the jets were wrong in thinking they couldn't get a good dman at their spot (without reaching) but they couldn't get a good one where they moved up to either.

If you flipped look green and Logan stanleys pick locations the value actually much more inline. Green = borderline first round value pick. Stanley = third round value pick.

Should also mention are probabilities run higher then the better "non-public" methodologies due to our sample size being restricted to previously drafted players.