New Jersey Devils to draft #17

[Devils Dominion]

They probably won't be, but they might be. And some random D prospect in our system now might end up being an all star. It's so hard to predict how a team will look in 3-5 years. It seems like our forwards will be stronger than our d core, but who knows? Maybe Severson and Butcher take huge steps forward and we make a trade. All the sudden our d looks fine.

Point is, select the best player regardless of position.

I see what you did there.
Slick play on words....

 

[Unknown Caller]

Best. Player. Available. Hopefully it's a dman considering our current team needs, but if not, don't reach and pass over a better forward prospect. Our team needs can change over night. For all we know Shero can sign and trade for dmen and both Zacha and McLeod can bust.

This. Especially when the Devils might be in a gap at 17 where the first tier or two of defensemen are all gone, and the lower tier would be reaches. Guys like Bokk, Veleno, McLeod, etc. could be a lot more appealing.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If only there was a certain HFDevils poster who knows all, a draft guru of sorts. You wouldn't happen to know someone?

I can't think of such a person.

That being said, I didn't love nor hate the Bastian pick. I really wanted Adam Fox in that spot, whom I had ranked ahead of a couple D drafted in the 2016 1st round (Cholowski, Johansen). But Fox fell to the third round (Calgary). I like Bastian's size, smarts and low floor, I just never saw him as an impact player. But the Devils more than made up for it with the Joey Anderson pick in the third -- I had him ranked far ahead of Bastian at the same position of RW.

As for Boqvist, anyone who follows me on this thread knows I was not thrilled with that pick. I REALLY wanted Heponiemi there, I think the kid is going to be a star. That's not to say that Boqvist isn't a high-upside pick -- he has high end speed and skill. Heponiemi just has more of both and is a lot smarter and more competitive.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This. Especially when the Devils might be in a gap at 17 where the first tier or two of defensemen are all gone, and the lower tier would be reaches. Guys like Bokk, Veleno, McLeod, etc. could be a lot more appealing.

Though the Devils are likely looking at a lot of D, I admit that Veleno and Bokk would be hard to pass up. Both have star potential. But I also love the D-men I keep mentioning -- Wilde, Smith, Miller, Alexeyev & Woo.

 

[Devils Dominion]

I can't think of such a person.

That being said, I didn't love nor hate the Bastian pick. I really wanted Adam Fox in that spot, whom I had ranked ahead of a couple D drafted in the 2016 1st round (Cholowski, Johansen). But Fox fell to the third round (Calgary). I like Bastian's size, smarts and low floor, I just never saw him as an impact player. But the Devils more than made up for it with the Joey Anderson pick in the third -- I had him ranked far ahead of Bastian at the same position of RW.

As for Boqvist, anyone who follows me on this thread knows I was not thrilled with that pick. I REALLY wanted Heponiemi there, I think the kid is going to be a star. That's not to say that Boqvist isn't a high-upside pick -- he has high end speed and skill. Heponiemi just has more of both and is a lot smarter and more competitive.

I agree on Fox and also don't think Bastian makes more than a periodic AHL depth call up.

Hepo had an off the charts season, he would have been a Top 20 if teams were not scared off by his lack of weight/muscle.

FLA got a steal but I also really like Boqvist

 

[Devils Dominion]

If Bokk is there you cannot pass on him.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I actually love Farabee, but I would be shocked if the Devils drafted a LW in the first round. It's the deepest position in the organization. Kupari has a high ceiling but a low floor. The only way I could see the Devils drafting a C that high would be if Veleno somehow fell -- he has the high-speed/smarts combo Shero/Castron love and plays terrific two-way hockey. But I'm going to do my own list of likely Devils targets (keeping in mind guys who have a chance to be available at #17).

1. Ty Smith
2. Bode Wilde
3. K'Andre Miller
4. Alex Alexeyev
5. Jett Woo

Would be pretty disappointed at this list for Castron. Guys like Miller, Alexeyev, and Woo are barely first rounders on McKenzie's rankings. Button has Woo at 31 and Alexeyev/Miller are around 50. Pronman doesn't even have any of the three on his top 40-50ish list. Wilde and Smith would be fine with me, but the other three would be pretty significant reaches at 17.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Would be pretty disappointed at this list for Castron. Guys like Miller, Alexeyev, and Woo are barely first rounders on McKenzie's rankings. Button has Woo at 31 and Alexeyev/Miller are around 50. Pronman doesn't even have any of the three on his top 40-50ish list. Wilde and Smith would be fine with me, but the other three would be pretty significant reaches at 17.

All of the guys you mentioned had Strome over Barzal in 2015. I had Barzal over Strome. All of the guys you mentioned except Pronman had Keller outside the top 7 in 2016. Pronman and I had Keller #3.

I'm not saying I'm always right. I am notoriously terrible at forecasting goaltenders and we all have players we over or under-rate. But Miller is #15 on my list right now, #16 on McKeen's, and in top 20 range on the list of my favorite scout Steve Kournianos (the Draft Analyst).

Is Miller all the way down at #30 on the ISS list? Sure. But it's important to know that he wasn't even on their first round radar until April. These scouting services are very slow to move guys up or down the rankings with too much volatility -- it's like admitting you were wrong before you have to. But Miller's potential as a physical force with 40+ point upside at LHD, with tremendous size/strength/skates/smarts/athleticism is extremely tantalizing.

It's also important to know reasons why players may be over or under-ranked. A player like Alex Alexeyev only played 45 games with Red Deer of the WHL due to a series of maladies/injuries which plagued his draft-eligible season. This has likely knocked him back into his usual mid-to-late-20s rankings. But he has it all -- he's big, mobile, smart and physical with a great shot and tape-to-tape breakout passing. He scored 37 points from the Rebels' backline in those 45 games despite only being at 100% health for maybe half of them. He's a LHD with top-4 upside. Would I rank him ahead of Ty Smith? Certainly not. But would I take him over universally higher-ranked Jared McIsaac at the same position? Without a doubt.

All I'm saying is where these players are ranked by the CSS does not mean squat, and should not be a barometer of whether or not we should draft them. I keep a flow chart of where all the major prospect sites rank prospects, and each one has its own preferences. CSS and ISS weigh in the favor of larger players. McKenzie tends to weigh in favor of CHL players, whom he watches quite often. Pronman likes the smaller, skilled players. He's had Bokk ranked in his top 10 all year, a player who some services have as a second rounder.

Last year Steve Kournianos' battle for #1 overall was not Nico v Patrick but rather Nico v Mittelstadt. He took a lot of flak for that, but now it does not look like a bad argument. I remember being called 'a click-bait amateur who never watched hockey in his life' for ranking Barzal over Strome in 2015. It doesn't look too click-bait-y now. But we can also be wrong with the chances we take -- in the same 2015 draft I was one of two writers (Red Line Report was the other) who ranked Denis Gurianov in the top 10. I though he was the next Tarasenko, but clearly I'm far from flawless.

So, back to K'Andre Miller. I recently was writing back and forth with Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) about Miller. Robinson thought I had Miller ranked too high, but I explained my reasoning. Cam (who is awesome, by the way) admitted he had not seen Miller enough, and promised to pay more attention to him at the IIHF tourney. So, perhaps Cam will move him up in the rankings, too. Maybe he will still disagree -- and he's certainly a guy I respect the opinion of.

In conclusion, I think all of our arguments about who our team should draft should have a stronger backing argument than where a specific ranking service has ranked them. If the Devils took Bokk at #17 many pundits would attack the pick as a reach, while Pronman and I would call it a steal. If the Devils took, for instance, Lundestrom at #17 many pundits would hail the pick while I gagged on my own bile. This is part of the fun of the draft.

 

[Devils Dominion]

All of the guys you mentioned had Strome over Barzal in 2015. I had Barzal over Strome. All of the guys you mentioned except Pronman had Keller outside the top 7 in 2016. Pronman and I had Keller #3.

I'm not saying I'm always right. I am notoriously terrible at forecasting goaltenders and we all have players we over or under-rate. But Miller is #15 on my list right now, #16 on McKeen's, and in top 20 range on the list of my favorite scout Steve Kournianos (the Draft Analyst).

Is Miller all the way down at #30 on the ISS list? Sure. But it's important to know that he wasn't even on their first round radar until April. These scouting services are very slow to move guys up or down the rankings with too much volatility -- it's like admitting you were wrong before you have to. But Miller's potential as a physical force with 40+ point upside at LHD, with tremendous size/strength/skates/smarts/athleticism is extremely tantalizing.

It's also important to know reasons why players may be over or under-ranked. A player like Alex Alexeyev only played 45 games with Red Deer of the WHL due to a series of maladies/injuries which plagued his draft-eligible season. This has likely knocked him back into his usual mid-to-late-20s rankings. But he has it all -- he's big, mobile, smart and physical with a great shot and tape-to-tape breakout passing. He scored 37 points from the Rebels' backline in those 45 games despite only being at 100% health for maybe half of them. He's a LHD with top-4 upside. Would I rank him ahead of Ty Smith? Certainly not. But would I take him over universally higher-ranked Jared McIsaac at the same position? Without a doubt.

All I'm saying is where these players are ranked by the CSS does not mean squat, and should not be a barometer of whether or not we should draft them. I keep a flow chart of where all the major prospect sites rank prospects, and each one has its own preferences. CSS and ISS weigh in the favor of larger players. McKenzie tends to weigh in favor of CHL players, whom he watches quite often. Pronman likes the smaller, skilled players. He's had Bokk ranked in his top 10 all year, a player who some services have as a second rounder.

Last year Steve Kournianos' battle for #1 overall was not Nico v Patrick but rather Nico v Mittelstadt. He took a lot of flak for that, but now it does not look like a bad argument. I remember being called 'a click-bait amateur who never watched hockey in his life' for ranking Barzal over Strome in 2015. It doesn't look too click-bait-y now. But we can also be wrong with the chances we take -- in the same 2015 draft I was one of two writers (Red Line Report was the other) who ranked Denis Gurianov in the top 10. I though he was the next Tarasenko, but clearly I'm far from flawless.

So, back to K'Andre Miller. I recently was writing back and forth with Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) about Miller. Robinson thought I had Miller ranked too high, but I explained my reasoning. Cam (who is awesome, by the way) admitted he had not seen Miller enough, and promised to pay more attention to him at the IIHF tourney. So, perhaps Cam will move him up in the rankings, too. Maybe he will still disagree -- and he's certainly a guy I respect the opinion of.

In conclusion, I think all of our arguments about who our team should draft should have a stronger backing argument than where a specific ranking service has ranked them. If the Devils took Bokk at #17 many pundits would attack the pick as a reach, while Pronman and I would call it a steal. If the Devils took, for instance, Lundestrom at #17 many pundits would hail the pick while I gagged on my own bile. This is part of the fun of the draft.

I hear you and also face similar doubt and scorn while usually be proven right.

Hope Ray Castron can hit a home run at 17 and Bokk it out of the park

 

[My3Sons]

I had BPA as Barzal, and mocked him to the Devils in that draft.

Easy there, let's not stir that pot.

 

[Nubmer6]

Why don't we play a game during the draft?

We start a new thread, and for each pick and we all call who we would pick right before the Devils select, then find a way to archive the thread and look at it each year. It would be kind of cool to do every year and look back, and would earn bragging rights for some people.

We'd want to keep the thread clean (just your picks and no other chatter), and we would make 1 pick at a time... i.e. you don't have to post a list for the entire draft. Just a single name for each round with a deadline of when the Devs announce their pick for that round.

We could even make some kind of scoring system to see who does better as time goes by.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Why don't we play a game during the draft?

We start a new thread, and for each pick and we all call who we would pick right before the Devils select, then find a way to archive the thread and look at it each year. It would be kind of cool to do every year and look back, and would earn bragging rights for some people.

We'd want to keep the thread clean (just your picks and no other chatter), and we would make 1 pick at a time... i.e. you don't have to post a list for the entire draft. Just a single name for each round with a deadline of when the Devs announce their pick for that round.

We could even make some kind of scoring system to see who does better as time goes by.

Good idea, but It's not allowed here.

 

[Nubmer6]

Good idea, but It's not allowed here.

It's not? Weird. I'm not really sure what the harm would be but oh well.

 

[My3Sons]

All of the guys you mentioned had Strome over Barzal in 2015. I had Barzal over Strome. All of the guys you mentioned except Pronman had Keller outside the top 7 in 2016. Pronman and I had Keller #3.

I'm not saying I'm always right. I am notoriously terrible at forecasting goaltenders and we all have players we over or under-rate. But Miller is #15 on my list right now, #16 on McKeen's, and in top 20 range on the list of my favorite scout Steve Kournianos (the Draft Analyst).

Is Miller all the way down at #30 on the ISS list? Sure. But it's important to know that he wasn't even on their first round radar until April. These scouting services are very slow to move guys up or down the rankings with too much volatility -- it's like admitting you were wrong before you have to. But Miller's potential as a physical force with 40+ point upside at LHD, with tremendous size/strength/skates/smarts/athleticism is extremely tantalizing.

It's also important to know reasons why players may be over or under-ranked. A player like Alex Alexeyev only played 45 games with Red Deer of the WHL due to a series of maladies/injuries which plagued his draft-eligible season. This has likely knocked him back into his usual mid-to-late-20s rankings. But he has it all -- he's big, mobile, smart and physical with a great shot and tape-to-tape breakout passing. He scored 37 points from the Rebels' backline in those 45 games despite only being at 100% health for maybe half of them. He's a LHD with top-4 upside. Would I rank him ahead of Ty Smith? Certainly not. But would I take him over universally higher-ranked Jared McIsaac at the same position? Without a doubt.

All I'm saying is where these players are ranked by the CSS does not mean squat, and should not be a barometer of whether or not we should draft them. I keep a flow chart of where all the major prospect sites rank prospects, and each one has its own preferences. CSS and ISS weigh in the favor of larger players. McKenzie tends to weigh in favor of CHL players, whom he watches quite often. Pronman likes the smaller, skilled players. He's had Bokk ranked in his top 10 all year, a player who some services have as a second rounder.

Last year Steve Kournianos' battle for #1 overall was not Nico v Patrick but rather Nico v Mittelstadt. He took a lot of flak for that, but now it does not look like a bad argument. I remember being called 'a click-bait amateur who never watched hockey in his life' for ranking Barzal over Strome in 2015. It doesn't look too click-bait-y now. But we can also be wrong with the chances we take -- in the same 2015 draft I was one of two writers (Red Line Report was the other) who ranked Denis Gurianov in the top 10. I though he was the next Tarasenko, but clearly I'm far from flawless.

So, back to K'Andre Miller. I recently was writing back and forth with Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) about Miller. Robinson thought I had Miller ranked too high, but I explained my reasoning. Cam (who is awesome, by the way) admitted he had not seen Miller enough, and promised to pay more attention to him at the IIHF tourney. So, perhaps Cam will move him up in the rankings, too. Maybe he will still disagree -- and he's certainly a guy I respect the opinion of.

In conclusion, I think all of our arguments about who our team should draft should have a stronger backing argument than where a specific ranking service has ranked them. If the Devils took Bokk at #17 many pundits would attack the pick as a reach, while Pronman and I would call it a steal. If the Devils took, for instance, Lundestrom at #17 many pundits would hail the pick while I gagged on my own bile. This is part of the fun of the draft.

Have you been able to watch the U-18 games and has that confirmed or changed any of your evaluation? This was a great description of the process so thanks for providing that to those of us that don't get to watch too much draft eligible hockey.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I hope a defensemen drops to us like Wilde. However, it looks from several draft sites that where we pick the best available players are forwards. I have a feeling Shero will surprise us by moving up or trade for a later first where a second group of D-men are slotted. We’ll see.

 

[MartyOwns]

All I'm saying is where these players are ranked by the CSS does not mean squat, and should not be a barometer of whether or not we should draft them.

it's pronounced 'thermometer'

 

[Darkauron]

The css and iss are garbage with draft rankings anyway

 

[Comparison Ford]

I have a sneaky suspicion (based off literally nothing) that Shero trades down, turning the #17 pick into 2 picks.

 

[Devils Dominion]

I have a sneaky suspicion (based off literally nothing) that Shero trades down, turning the #17 pick into 2 picks.

That typically does not work out well

 

[MadDevil]

That typically does not work out well

Don't you have faith in Castron to find us players with 2 picks instead of 1?

 

[Nubmer6]

That typically does not work out well

My mentality has always been to have tiers of players in the draft. Only the first 5 to maybe 10 players stand out in their own tiers. I feel that nitpicking to rank one individual over another that may or may not be a hair better doesn't yield as high of a chance net you a better player as getting a second pick later.

As you get deeper into the draft, you have more and more players in the same tier. By the time you hit 17, there's probably going to be at least 2 or 3 players that you find pretty equal. If all are still available, you look to trade down a couple slots and get that extra pick.

Maybe it's good I'm not a professional scout

 

[Ripshot 43]

I love that I’ve already seen someone mention how at 17 we are just out of a tier of pics... happens... every... single... year.

 

[Triumph]

Nubmer6 has got it - so far as GM Shero's traded down 3 times and traded up 0 - I'm a big fan of trading down. Everyone's always really high on the guy they get in the 1st round and sometimes they get a star and sometimes they got nothing - at the draft around 17, there probably isn't a ton of difference and trading down can exploit that.

 

[Darkauron]

I really really love this year how there are a ton of good D prospects all over the place.

 

[Brodeur]

I have a sneaky suspicion (based off literally nothing) that Shero trades down, turning the #17 pick into 2 picks.

It might be tougher this year with how the order is constructed (*pick could potentially move down):

17. New Jersey
18. Columbus*
19. Philadelphia
20. Los Angeles
21. San Jose*
22. Ottawa (via Pittsburgh)*
23. Anaheim

Columbus/Philadelphia probably aren't giving up much to flip a couple spots; But I suppose you never know as we were able to get a 3rd from Ottawa in 2016 to drop down one spot.

Los Angeles is a possibility, but probably wouldn't get a 2nd from LA to drop down. San Jose typically likes to trade up, but they lack draft picks this year (no 2nd/3rd) and they owe Buffalo a 2nd (possibly a 1st) next year for Evander Kane.

We've traded down twice with Ottawa in recent memory, but the Sens are lacking some picks due to the Duchene trade. We'll see if Karlsson gets dealt before the draft and maybe Ottawa has some extra picks to play around with.

Just off the top of my head, Anaheim has preferred to trade down and accumulate picks over the last decade. Worked out well in 2011 when they turned #22 into #30/39 (Rakell/Gibson). Not as much in 2008 when they turned #12 into #17/35/39 (Gardiner/Deschamps/O'Dell) which allegedly cost them their primary target Erik Karlsson.

Ray's shown he's open to trading with the Rangers who have a bunch of picks. So maybe there's a possibility there, something like #26 and #48. In 2009, the Islanders traded 26/37/62/92 for 16/77.

That typically does not work out well

It's interesting, the analytics says it's better to trade down (once you get out of the range of the blue chip guys). But in practice, seemingly the team trading up has done better.

But typically the idea of trading down is that you're getting the guy you would have drafted anyways, but now you get a bonus pick. A small trade down with LA seems plausible. Kings might be willing to fork over a 3rd to leapfrog Columbus/Philadelphia for their choice of forwards. If we're targeting a D, it might be a safe bet that Columbus/Philadelphia are looking for forwards.