Player Discussion New Captain- Nick Suzuki

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Not at all. If Nick starts playing like a true number one, I’ll be the first to say so. I sincerely hope he can find the next gear.

He can start by shooting a lot more.

Isn’t our first line top ten in advanced stats?

 

[Don D]

He's everything I expected he would be and he still shows that he is our best player in meaningful games. If he's a Saku Koivu that's fine by me.
Looking at Suzuki's career trajectory he's every bit as productive as Sean Monahan was with a much stronger Calgary Flames team.
If there is one player on our roster who should have more production than he actually does it's Nick Suzuki and most of it is through no fault of his own.

Nick is 24 yrs old, was named the Alliance Hockey Player of the Year for the 2014–15 season, named to the OHL First All Rookie team, youngest captain in the Canadiens' history. We are fortunate to have him.
Dale DeGray Once said: “He was arguably one of the smartest visionary sort of kids in the OHL draft,” DeGray said, thinking back to the first time he scouted Suzuki, when the centre played AAA for the London Junior Knights. “I thought he was an average to better-than-average skater but did not have breakaway speed and was really, really smart. He saw the ice really well, was an incredible passer and creative."
Suzuki would be an awesome second line centre on any NHL team, but with the Habs, he is asked to be on the first line and is doing a very good job.
More on the article with the aforementioned quote: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/articl...suzuki-was-once-owen-sounds-humble-superstar/

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nick is 24 yrs old, was named the Alliance Hockey Player of the Year for the 2014–15 season, named to the OHL First All Rookie team, youngest captain in the Canadiens' history. We are fortunate to have him.
Dale DeGray Once said: “He was arguably one of the smartest visionary sort of kids in the OHL draft,” DeGray said, thinking back to the first time he scouted Suzuki, when the centre played AAA for the London Junior Knights. “I thought he was an average to better-than-average skater but did not have breakaway speed and was really, really smart. He saw the ice really well, was an incredible passer and creative."
Suzuki would be an awesome second line centre on any NHL team, but with the Habs, he is asked to be on the first line and is doing a very good job.
More on the article with the aforementioned quote: Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki was once Owen Sound's 'humble superstar'

I don’t disagree. And I like him as captain.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Isn’t our first line top ten in advanced stats?

I don't know. Why don't you show us?

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

I don't know. Why don't you show us?

 

[Heffyhoof]

Must be cool to score at a 47 goal pace when 150+ games in you're best season is 43 points.... I think it's Suzuki who's been held back by a streaky and one-dimensional winger, not the other way around.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Player A: 66 points in 82 games
Player B: 36 points, on pace for 64 points

Player A: inconsistent
Player B: in elite company

Player A line-mates over last 36 games: RHP, Anderson, Pitlick, Hoffman, gurianov. 1 NHL’er among them, and folks call him a Donkey.

 

[danisonfire]

Bro he put up 6 points in 15 games that one time, that means he's a 2nd line center.

Matthews and other goal top scorers do this frequently. Hot and cold stretches. I know that you, yourself, understand this; but it is comical at this point that you have to say it.

These elite players are still having these stretches (McDavid, 2P in 8G) while playing with other high point producers and we expect Suzuki to get more than 1.73x the points of the second highest scorer playing with call-ups, rookie / AHL D and zero other lines to defend against for other teams.

Let's also pretend that a guy like Matthews would put up the same totals if he played with Ylonen and RHP since a superstar will always score the same amount of points no matter who he plays with.

Exactly. Suzuki even increased his production each year with additional responsibilities as he played with a weak roster with one line to defend (opposition)

 

[Rapala]

Matthews and other goal top scorers do this frequently. Hot and cold stretches. I know that you, yourself, understand this; but it is comical at this point that you have to say it.

These elite players are still having these stretches (McDavid, 2P in 8G) while playing with other high point producers and we expect Suzuki to get more than 1.73x the points of the second highest scorer playing with call-ups, rookie / AHL D and zero other lines to defend against for other teams.


Exactly. Suzuki even increased his production each year with additional responsibilities as he played with a weak roster with one line to defend (opposition)

Suzuki as we as know started on the 4th line and his play was good enough to displace our 72 point man Domi who was then moved. We've already seen what the other guy can do with lesser players and it's 8 points from mid October to Feb 2nd. But that was Ducharme's fault we are told despite the fact that the player in question was relegated because of terrible play. One has been the model of consistency and the other is a phenom when we cobble together portions of two seasons. Currently I don't think Caufield is a great fit for Suzuki unfortunately he's probably a worse fit for Monahan and whoever.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Matthews and other goal top scorers do this frequently. Hot and cold stretches. I know that you, yourself, understand this; but it is comical at this point that you have to say it.

But Matthews finishes with like 50 goals and 100 points.

You really don’t get it do you?

 

[danisonfire]

But Matthews finishes with like 50 goals and 100 points.

You really don’t get it do you?

40 goals, 85 points and was 3rd in team scoring.

Montreal also doesn't have Marner, Nylander, Tavares, or Bunting who would have finished 11 points higher than our 2nd highest scorer.

Calle Jarnkrok would have finished 2nd in team scoring with 39 points in 72 games. He is obviously better than every Montreal player other than the mighty Nick Suzuki.

We don't have Morgan Rielly for our power-play.

I hope the bold is satire for your sake.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

40 goals, 85 points and was 3rd in team scoring.

And this helps you how?

Seriously. It’s a terrible comparison. That was an off year for Matthews. Meanwhile Suzuki’s never scored 30 or 70….

I’m not sure what you thought you were proving here. How does any of this support Suzuki being a number one?

 

[danisonfire]

And this helps you how?

Seriously. It’s a terrible comparison. That was an off year for Matthews. Meanwhile Suzuki’s never scored 30 or 70….

I’m not sure what you thought you were proving here.

BY SHOWING YOU WHAT A SUPPORTING CAST LOOKS LIKE.

IT DOESN'T HAVE THE 2ND LEADING SCORER AT 38 POINTS WITH SUZUKI AT 66. THIS JUST IN, IT IS EASIER TO GET HIGHER POINT TOTALS POINTS WITH MORE TALENTED PLAYERS ON YOUR TEAM. NEWS AT 11.

Did Marner last year have 1.72x the points of second place?
Go back the following year with Matthews leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?
What about this year with Nylander leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

BY SHOWING YOU WHAT A SUPPORTING CAST LOOKS LIKE.

?

?

I see.

So… Suzuku would be scoring 50 plus goals a year in TO? The only difference between these guys is the supporting cast?

 

[danisonfire]

I see.

So… Suzuku would be scoring 50 plus goals a year in TO? The only difference between these guys is the supporting cast?

Assists (secondary) would be the most likely to jump. Think how many D and forwards point totals that Markov boosted throughout the years. That is just ONE player. He was that good on the PP.

Did Marner last year have 1.72x the points of second place?
Go back the following year with Matthews leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?
What about this year with Nylander leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?

They are reasonable point spreads because they are all benefiting from each other. Having 1.72x the points of the next person means that collecting primary and secondary assists is challenging. Having 72% of your points SH and ES isn't ideal. It means you are basically solo carrying at ES and the PK when you factor in the 1.72x point lead number.

Look at DRI and McDavid. Their totals are so high because they are feasting off each other on the PP. Ditto for Barrie who would be second in our teams scoring list. Put Barrie on MTL (or even the other two) and they all of a sudden are passing to Josh Anderson instead of McDavid.

The thing that people have mentioned that would make the biggest difference is having a Markov type of D for our PP. That alone would add 10+ points to the players on PP1 and PP2

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Assists (secondary) would be the most likely to jump.

Did Marner last year have 1.72x the points of second place?
Go back the following year with Matthews leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?
What about this year with Nylander leading. Do you see 1.72x the points of second place?

They are reasonable point spreads because they are all benefiting from each other. Having 1.72x the points of the next person means that collecting primary and secondary assists is challenging. It means you are basically solo carrying. Look at DRI and McDavid. Their totals are so high because they are feasting off each other on the PP.

The thing that people have mentioned that would make the biggest difference is having a Markov type of D for our PP. That alone would add 10+ points to the players on PP1 and PP2

It’s a terrible conmparison. Matthews is an infinitely better player and if they were swapped Marner’s points would go down.

Comparing Suzuki to players of this caliber is a disservice to him.

 

[danisonfire]

It’s a terrible conmparison. Matthews is an infinitely better player and if they were swapped Marner’s points would go down.

Comparing Suzuki to players of this caliber is a disservice to him.

You are lost in your head I am not comparing the players I am asking this....

Which PP would Matthews get more points playing on:

A) Playing with Marner and Nylander on the PP
B) Playing with Anderson and Dach? on the PP

Do I have to explain to you how playing with more talented players inflates overall point totals? The concept of how higher scoring teams have players with higher point totals and lower scoring teams have players with lower point totals. Is this real life?

Put Suzuki with Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Tavares and he would have had more points than he did with spare parts. This isn't about Suzuki and Matthews. This is about supporting cast. Montreal was dead last for that and Nick lapped them all (1.72x) last year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You are lost in your head I am not comparing the players I am asking this....

Which PP would Matthews get more points playing on:

A) Playing with Marner and Nylander on the PP
B) Playing with Anderson and Dach? on the PP

Do I have to explain to you how playing with good players inflates point totals?

It’s a really bad example to use.

You’re trying to rebut my inconsistency argument with a guy like Matthews. And then you go to his linemates while leaving out the following:

1. It’s an off year for Matthews - and it still blows Suzki out of the water

2. Matthews is a far, far better player. And if swapped out his teammates numbers would likely go down playing with Suzuki.

3. Suzuki was playing with a guy who was pacing to be the 6th highest scoring winger in the league and slumped really badly. He wasn’t playing with a bum.

We all get it. Suzuki doesn’t have a great cast. But that in and of itself does not make him a front line center. You can point to Cale Makar all you wish, it’s doesn’t make Suzki Nathan Mackinnon.

Want a comparison? Look at Dylan Larkin. Terrible team and he hit 79 points last year. A career year for him but he doesn’t have a CC or Slaf. And even that guy is probably a 1B guy. Thats about where Suzuki has shown himself to be, in that tier of player.

 

[danisonfire]

It’s a really bad example to use.

You’re trying to rebut my inconsistency argument with a guy like Matthews. And then you go to his linemates while leaving out the following:

1. It’s an off year for Matthews - and it still blows Suzki out of the water

2. Matthews is a far, far better player. And if swapped out his teammates numbers would likely go down playing with Suzuki.

3. Suzuki was playing with a guy who was pacing to be the 6th highest scoring winger in the league and slumped really badly. He wasn’t playing with a bum.

We all get it. Suzuki doesn’t have a great cast. But that in and of itself does not make him a front line center. You can point to Cale Makar all you wish, it’s doesn’t make Suzki Nathan Mackinnon.

Want a comparison? Look at Dylan Larkin. Terrible team and he hit 79 points last year. A career year for him but he doesn’t have a CC or Slaf. And even that guy is probably a 1B guy. Thats about where Suzuki has shown himself to be, in that tier of player.

You are the only one comparing the two players.

The rest of us are comparing Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly to the call ups from last years team and saying that it hurts Nick Suzuki's ability to get extremely high point totals. Marner and friends are more talented. They score more goals. Make better plays. That helps people get points. Anderson and friends don't do that. The fact he set a new career high (1.72x higher than 2nd place) playing with that is wild.

This is not rocket science. Better offensive teams (we don't have the talent) score more goals and players get more individual points.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You are the only one comparing the two players. The rest of us are comparing Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly to the call ups from last years team and saying that hurts Nick Suzuki's ability to get extremely high point totals.

This is not rocket science. Better teams score more goals and get more individual points.

Great. I acknowledged that in my post.

It doesn’t make Suzuki a number one.

 

[The Great Weal]

3. Suzuki was playing with a guy who was pacing to be the 6th highest scoring winger in the league and slumped really badly. He wasn’t playing with a bum.

This is flat out wrong. Caufield was tied for the 81st most productive player in the league during the time of his injury and "on pace" means nothing when he was outside the top 10 for goals scored at the time. Caufield isn't a bum, but he's nowhere near the caliber of Matthews linemates. The argument isn't that Suzuki is better than Matthews, it's that Matthews has a much better supporting cast than Suzuki. Every team's best center in the league does too.

You want a more appropriate comparison, how about your take that Dylan Cozens is better than Suzuki? You know because he had 2 more points than Suzuki last year even though he played on a top 3 offensive team in the league which you always ignored. How's that looking like now that he has nearly half of Suzuki's point totals? It's cold hard facts right there that linemate quality makes a difference, the Sabres were a goalscoring juggernaut last year and are below average (still better than the Habs) this year.

 

[danisonfire]

Great. I acknowledged that in my post.

It doesn’t make Suzuki a number one.

Find me a single NHL team scoring leader that has1.5x the points higher than the second leading scorer on his team. Suzuki was 1.72x but you won't find a single one at 1.5x either.

Points usually don't work like that. Suzuki solo carrying through call ups and injuries with no help is the reality he set a new career high in. The season is 82 games and the numbers don't lie or only focus on slumps. Matthews would get more total points playing with Marner Nylander Tavares and Reilly than he would have with last years Montreal team.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Again dude, he had a winger pacing for 50 and still went cold. That wasn’t a support issue.

He’s good but he’s not dominant the way you’d want your number one to be on a consistent basis. He’s always been bottom third in scoring and has never even cracked 70 points. People’s have brought up Bergeron to make the case for his two way game but his CF numbers are in the low 50s. A guy like Bergeron was pushing 60. He’s really good but he doesn’t juice his linemates the way a true number one can. But he does show he can do it in spurts.

If he can string it together consistently- and maybe he will - then I’ll re-evaluate. But he hasn’t proven it.

He’s a 1B.

I don't know. Why don't you show us?

I think people are referring to this list, which currently has the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line 19th in xGF% among lines with more than 100 minutes together. It doesn't really mean Suzuki is a #1C or not, but it is important to see that the impacts of that line (which is a big part of Montreal's future) is really good. Even if they're better at preventing chances than creating them. That line has had some bad luck, but I think the thing that will eventually unlock it is if Slafkovsky works on his release (both mechanics and quicker decision making). If he's more a threat offensively, its going to give Suzuki (and Caufield) more space to make plays which should help them all.

Talking more on defensively, it depends on what model you use, but his expected goals and on-ice chance expected goal prevention numbers are very good, especially relative to the rest of the team (which is more indicative of ability than his CF numbers are in the low 50s. If we're talking about guys actually playing center, I've seen him top-5 to top-10 in defensive impact based on a couple of models. Personally (regardless of stats), I think we're seeing him 'juice' his linemates on the defensive end.

I guess it depends by what standard you choose to judge a 1C, but its possible that Suzuki is there, but the circumstances surrounding him mean that the points don't match it. I don't think he's there yet, but its hard to know when you don't have quality depth around him. Points-wise, responsibility-wise and impacts-wise, I'd say he's a low end 1C (as a contender you'd hope for better, but he's not far off). But I think its less of a consistency issue on his part (unless the comparison is with truly elite centers) as it is the quality of the team around him.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Find me a single NHL team scoring leader that has1.5x the points higher than the second leading scorer on his team. Suzuki was 1.72x but you won't find a single one at 1.5x either.

Points usually don't work like that. Suzuki solo carrying through call ups and injuries with no help is the reality he set a new career high in. The season is 82 games and the numbers don't lie or only focus on slumps. Matthews would get more total points playing with Marner Nylander Tavares and Reilly than he would have with last years Montreal team.

Right, teams don’t usually work like that. But it happens when you wind up with injuries. And again… he slumped before those injuries occurred with a guy pacing towards 47 goals - good for sixth in the league.

You skipped over my Larkin example. He’s 25 points ahead of the next guy and they only have those points because he’s jusicing their numbers.

The bottom line is that Suzuki’s never demonstrated himself to be a top tier center. He’s always been a bottom third guy.

I hope it changes. The guy who paced for 92 at the start of last year rocked. Recently he’s played really well too. It’d be nice if he could sustain that level of play.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Why tf are we shitting on our top two forwards so much???