Value of: Nathan Mackinnon (THN says he's no longer untouchable)

[The Macho King]

There's no real stat I can point to. It's just clear to us that his skill level hasn't matched his numbers. He's capable of things few others in the league are, physically. So, yeah, his shot selection tends to be trash, but it seems that he just has to tighten things up at some point.

You can believe what you want to believe, but I'm not saying this to pump up his trade value. I have zero interest in trading him. Maybe it's blind optimism. Maybe not. Either way, were more than happy to wait it out and see.

That's fair, and for the record I'm not saying that he won't get better/be more productive. I'm just saying that there is nothing that shows a guy who is just getting awww shucks bad luck, and development is not guaranteed.

 

[keppel146]

Ah. This is a concept I know well. (Ask old-timer Oilers fans around here what the price for Ryan Johansen is. )

haha. like when oilers fans wouldnt swap Dumba for RNH and thought the wild should add?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

You're assuming linear progression. Except MacKinnon has not produced linearly so far, so why would it start now?

62, 38 (in 64), 52 (in 72), and 53, with a mediocre shot (especially for a forward - career s% of 8.1 and a three-year average well below that). There is nothing here that screams "player about to break out". Also - while saying his point totals were low because of his team...

His on ice shot% was not even that low. In fact, it was right in line with his career average (his PDO is low because of an abysmal on ice save percentage). What stats exist to show that he is a guy that's just snakebit right now and will turn the corner? Maybe he is what he has shown - a ~60 point player.

MacKinnon just outscored the 2nd place scorer on the Avs by roughtly 23%. McDavid is the only person with a higher percentage above 2nd place, and it's by tenths of a percent (23% vs 22.7%). That's a pretty strong indication that MacKinnon is doing everything he can, but his teammates are holding him back. If 2nd place scores 61 instead of 41, I think 70+ points is almost a given.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

MacKinnon just outscored the 2nd place scorer on the Avs by roughtly 23%. McDavid is the only person with a higher percentage above 2nd place, and it's by tenths of a percent (23% vs 22.7%). That's a pretty strong indication that MacKinnon is doing everything he can, but his teammates are holding him back. If 2nd place scores 61 instead of 41, I think 70+ points is almost a given.

Good point. MacKinnon has potential to be elite player in this league and I think trading him would be like trading Seguin before he turned it up. He is still very young, people seem to forget that.

 

[CCook37]

MacKinnon to the Hawks for Panarin and Seabrook.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

You're assuming linear progression. Except MacKinnon has not produced linearly so far, so why would it start now?

62, 38 (in 64), 52 (in 72), and 53, with a mediocre shot (especially for a forward - career s% of 8.1 and a three-year average well below that). There is nothing here that screams "player about to break out". Also - while saying his point totals were low because of his team...

His on ice shot% was not even that low. In fact, it was right in line with his career average (his PDO is low because of an abysmal on ice save percentage). What stats exist to show that he is a guy that's just snakebit right now and will turn the corner? Maybe he is what he has shown - a ~60 point player.

There is no exact stat to say that, but common hockey sense watching him says if you put him on a line with another all-star caliber player, his numbers would go up considerably.

I get stat watching and saying his 16-17 stats are the bible while not considering other factors. Anyone with a hockey brain would bet their life that if there was an Ovechkin, Kane, Tarasenko, etc... on his wing, it would surely take pressure off of him and open him up for more opportunities.

An average shift for him this season was 20-30 seconds of the d failing to get it out of the zone, finally giving him the puck, causing him to be stuck going in 1 on 3 while his teammates change lines. Like many great players, he is not a dump and chase type guy. He tries his ass off to make something happen. Now we need to put talent around him, both on his line and D getting them the puck.

Also, who is the world would say his shot is "mediocre"? I know he isn't ripping one timers like Stamkos and Ovechkin, but mediocre? Really?

 

[The Macho King]

There is no exact stat to say that, but common hockey sense watching him says if you put him on a line with an other all-star caliber player, his numbers would go up considerably.

I get stat watching and saying his 16-17 stats are the bible and not considering other factors, but anyone with a hockey brain would bet their life that if there was an Ovechkin, Kane, Tarasenko, etc... on his wing, it would surely take pressure off of him and open him up for more opportunities.

An average shift for him this season was 20-30 seconds of the d failing to get it out of the zone, finally giving him the puck, causing him to be stuck going in 1 on 3 while his teammates change lines. Like many great players, he is not a dump and chase type guy. He tries his ass off to make something happen. Now we need to put talent around him, both on his line and a D getting them the puck.

Also, who is the world would say his shot is "mediocre"? I know he isn't ripping one timers like Stamkos and Ovechkin, but mediocre? Really?

The amount of shots of his that go in versus the amount that don't say that his shot is mediocre. And that's not something you can blame teammates for. 8.1 s% for a forward is average (if not below).

 

[Duffman955]

He was overrated and overhyped.

I dont see anything special in him

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

The amount of shots of his that go in versus the amount that don't say that his shot is mediocre. And that's not something you can blame teammates for. 8.1 s% for a forward is average (if not below).

Ok so going by that rationale, Ovechkin had a mediocre shot this season. His S% was around same as MacKinnons rookie year. Or did MacKinnon have a non-mediocre shot then? Brent Burns and Tyler Seguin as well.

It almost like their teammates have nothing to do with their S% or overall success. MacKinnon is just sitting in the high slot wide open taking mediocre shots all season long.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

The amount of shots of his that go in versus the amount that don't say that his shot is mediocre. And that's not something you can blame teammates for. 8.1 s% for a forward is average (if not below).

How many times per game does MacKinnon carry the puck into the zone, get no help from his linemates and end up throwing the puck towards the net? I don't have the exact count, but he does take a lot of lower percentage shots when he doesn't have support on the rush. Something as seemingly minor as 1 throwaway shot every other game could be the reason his shooting percentage isn't closer to 10%.

 

[EdAVSfan]

The amount of shots of his that go in versus the amount that don't say that his shot is mediocre. And that's not something you can blame teammates for. 8.1 s% for a forward is average (if not below).

Wow. This is truly a terrible argument.

 

[The Macho King]

Ok so going by that rationale, Ovechkin had a mediocre shot this season. His S% was around same as MacKinnons rookie year. Or did MacKinnon have a non-mediocre shot then? Brent Burns and Tyler Seguin as well.

It almost like their teammates have nothing to do with their S% or overall success. MacKinnon is just sitting in the high slot wide open taking mediocre shots all season long.

Burns is a Dman - what's a good s% for a Dman is far different than what is good for a forward - Ovechkin had his lowest goal-scoring year ever (outside of the lockout), and Seguin also had his lowest goal-scoring year since his rookie year (outside of the lockout year).

I don't think you're proving the point you think you're proving.

 

[cheech70]

McDonagh and Stephan for Nate...Enough?

 

[The Macho King]

Wow. This is truly a terrible argument.

Not really. Muffins into the crest, even if he skates fast while shooting it, are not good shots.

Look at the top goal scorers in the league. Ovechkin has a s% of 12.3% for his career (and has always been a volume shooter). Stamkos has a s% of 17.1%. Kovalchuk had 14.1%. Iginla had 13.1% over his career (obviously trending down lately). Kucherov has 14.4% career, 16.3% this season.

Good shooters have shots that go in a lot. That's why they're good shooters. Bad shooters have shots that don't go in a lot. That's why they're bad shooters. There is no other metric needed to decide whether someone has a good shot beyond "how often do they go in".

 

[Cassano]

McDonagh and Stephan for Nate...Enough?

Disgusting. Wouldn't trade McDonagh alone for that.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Not really. Muffins into the crest, even if he skates fast while shooting it, are not good shots.

Look at the top goal scorers in the league. Ovechkin has a s% of 12.3% for his career (and has always been a volume shooter). Stamkos has a s% of 17.1%. Kovalchuk had 14.1%. Iginla had 13.1% over his career (obviously trending down lately). Kucherov has 14.4% career, 16.3% this season.

Good shooters have shots that go in a lot. That's why they're good shooters. Bad shooters have shots that don't go in a lot. That's why they're bad shooters. There is no other metric needed to decide whether someone has a good shot beyond "how often do they go in".

So you use absolutely no context when looking at stats. Nothing about quality of the shots, avg distance from the net, etc.

How bout the avs ranking dead last in shots from the slot... doesn't matter?

Then again maybe you're right.

Let's just say I have a hard time believing that Peter forsberg is a better shooter than everyone on your list. And that Alex tanguay is a vastly better shooter than Alex ovechkin.

That Paul Stastny, that's right, (one of the worst shots in the NHL Paul Stastny) is Alex ovechkin's and Jarome iginla's equal at shooting.

Call me skeptical when it comes to judging a players shooting ability by his shooting percentage.

I don't think there's an easier argument to poke holes through. The fact that you think that your teammates have no effect on your shooting percentage is ludicrous.

IMO of course.

 

[The Burdened]

Why would they trade MacKinnon? Seems illogical.

He's only gonna be 22-years old. If they are still somehow someway in the muck in 4-years, then trade him then.

 

[The Macho King]

So you use absolutely no context when looking at stats. Nothing about quality of the shots, avg distance from the net, etc.

How bout the avs ranking dead last in shots from the slot... doesn't matter?

Then again maybe you're right.

Let's just say I have a hard time believing that Peter forsberg is a better shooter than everyone on your list. And that Alex tanguay is a vastly better shooter than Alex ovechkin.

That Paul Stastny, that's right, (one of the worst shots in the NHL Paul Stastny) is Alex ovechkin's and Jarome iginla's equal at shooting.

Call me skeptical when it comes to judging a players shooting ability by his shooting percentage.

Got any examples of good scorers with bad shooting percentages?

 

[EdAVSfan]

Got any examples of good scorers with bad shooting percentages?

Off the top of my head I have no idea.

Can you explain how a terrible shooter like Paul Stastny has a higher shooting percentage than ovechkin.

Nathan mackinnon is so early in his career. He had a 10% in his first season. Why? Because he was provided better shooting opportunities.

No one is arguing than Mackinnon has an excellent shot like the best in the league. What we're saying, is using shooting percentages as a justification is a terrible idea.

It's akin to using +/- to justify defensive play and using nothing else.

 

[The Macho King]

Off the top of my head I have no idea.

Can you explain how a terrible shooter like Paul Stastny has a higher shooting percentage than ovechkin.

Nathan mackinnon is so early in his career. He had a 10% in his first season. Why? Because he was provided better shooting opportunities.

No one is arguing than Mackinnon has an excellent shot like the best in the league. What we're saying, is using shooting percentages as a justification is a terrible idea.

It's akin to using +/- to justify defensive play and using nothing else.

It really isn't. Over almost 1000 shots, 75 have went in. How is that anything other than mediocre?

 

[EdAVSfan]

It really isn't. Over almost 1000 shots, 75 have went in. How is that anything other than mediocre?

1000 wristers from just inside the blueline vs 1000 one timers from the slot.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Burns is a Dman - what's a good s% for a Dman is far different than what is good for a forward - Ovechkin had his lowest goal-scoring year ever (outside of the lockout), and Seguin also had his lowest goal-scoring year since his rookie year (outside of the lockout year).

I don't think you're proving the point you think you're proving.

Yes, proving that it is possible to have a down year scoring/points wise.

That has nothing to do with his ability to shoot the puck. A mediocre shot is ripping on any combination of strength and accuracy. Pure S% can have a million different factors involved and bringing up Burns being a dman is proving that point.

If anything you should be going after his shot selection rather than a "mediocre" shot.

 

[tempest2i]

haha. like when oilers fans wouldnt swap Dumba for RNH and thought the wild should add?

I wouldn't trade Nuge for Dumba right now and the Wild would have to add something pretty significant to make me change my mind.

edit: I've got all the time in the world for Mackinnon. He could play on my team any day. I wouldn't move him to the Wild for Dumba either.

 

[EscapedGoat]

Got any examples of good scorers with bad shooting percentages?

There are many good scorers with "bad" percentages. Phil Kessel has a sub 10% shooting percentage. Guess he's pretty mediocre.

Since you're using shooting percentage and acting like it's the best stat to judge a players shot, lets look at some fun comparisons.

Ovechkins percentage is just over 12 over the last three seasons. Alex Tanguays is over 17. Pretty clear that means Tanguay is the better shooter, right?

Jiri Hudlers percentage is 17 while John Tavares is 12.5. Obviously Hudler has the superior shooting ability.

Adam Henrique is at 16% while Tyler Seguin is 11.

Should I continue or do you understand? Using shooting percentage with absolutely no context and using it as the only way to judge the quality of a players shot is a little silly.

 

[The Faulker]

Canes would definitely be interested.