My Hart Trophy Winner Today is ...

[wintersej]

I mean it’s slightly higher overall in PPG, but lower in GPG and his percentage over 2nd in goals and points were both higher last year. He’s been involved in a bit higher percentage of the team’s goals (42 vs 37.5), but not by a significant amount.

But even if we say he’s been better this year, my point is that he’s not so much better as to drastically change the expectations of the team. The poster was suggesting that because a lot of people thought that Boston wouldn’t still be a top team this year that this means Pasta should be the MVP. I said that obviously those expectations were wrong and we shouldn’t base anything off of them. His response was that they were wrong because of Pasta’s play. But in order for that to make sense Pasta would have to be playing so much better than last year that replacing him with last year’s version would drop them to a bubble team.

To me this doesn’t make sense, and it’s clear that the team beyond Pasta is a lot better than some expected. That doesn’t take anything away from Pasta or mean that he isn’t a strong MVP candidate (since similar play last year earned him a runner up). I just think the argument the poster was making is illogical.

Pasta is a clear step above the guy he was last year. There is just much less help around. He is far more puck dominant both at even strength and the PP.

He finished 2nd in the Hart last year and he is clearly better this year. Should he win the Hart? Not going to say yes. But his candidacy is being brushed aside by far too many people.

 

[Regal]

Pasta is a clear step above the guy he was last year. There is just much less help around. He is far more puck dominant both at even strength and the PP.

He finished 2nd in the Hart last year and he is clearly better this year. Should he win the Hart? Not going to say yes. But his candidacy is being brushed aside by far too many people.

Ok fair enough. But do you think the reason Boston has one of the best records again this year instead of being a bubble team like some people thought they might is the difference between him this year and last year? Or were some people just overestimating how the losses would affect the team? Because that was essentially the argument being made that I didn’t agree with. His candidacy should be based on how good he’s been and/or how good he’s been relative to how his team, not how good he’s been relative to his team’s expectations

 

[wetcoast]

Pasta is a clear step above the guy he was last year. There is just much less help around. He is far more puck dominant both at even strength and the PP.

He finished 2nd in the Hart last year and he is clearly better this year. Should he win the Hart? Not going to say yes. But his candidacy is being brushed aside by far too many people.

Sure one can make the argument that Pasta is a bit better than last year but do you know who has clearly been much better than last year?

Mack, Kuch, Matthews and Quinn.

 

[wintersej]

Ok fair enough. But do you think the reason Boston has one of the best records again this year instead of being a bubble team like some people thought they might is the difference between him this year and last year? Or were some people just overestimating how the losses would affect the team? Because that was essentially the argument being made that I didn’t agree with. His candidacy should be based on how good he’s been and/or how good he’s been relative to how his team, not how good he’s been relative to his team’s expectations

His team is tied with Vancouver for having the best record in the NHL and he is by far the best skater on the Bruins. He has less help around him than MacKinnon does or any of the Vancouver guys do. I mean Pasta plays less than 50% of his TOI with Marchand. Before Zacha was with Pasta what was he? What was JVR last year without Pasta? What was Coyle before he was elevated to play with Pasta?

 

[wintersej]

Sure one can make the argument that Pasta is a bit better than last year but do you know who has clearly been much better than last year?

Mack, Kuch, Matthews and Quinn.

I dunno man, it’s not really worth debating. No minds are being changed here.

To those that watch him the most Pasta has had a clear leap since he finished 2nd in the Hart and scored 60 goals. He likely won’t score 60 again and he might actually have lower points and the Bruins narrative isn’t really getting picked up by the talking heads. But he is a far better and more impactful player with much less talent around him. Shoot, apparently he is the best team in the East’s only skater worthy of an All Star nod. How many All Stars are the other guys playing with again?

 

[wetcoast]

I dunno man, it’s not really worth debating. No minds are being changed here.

Isn't that what we do in every thread here?

To those that watch him the most Pasta has had a clear leap since he finished 2nd in the Hart and scored 60 goals. He likely won’t score 60 again and he might actually have lower points and the Bruins narrative isn’t really getting picked up by the talking heads. But he is a far better and more impactful player with much less talent around him. Shoot, apparently he is the best team in the East’s only skater worthy of an All Star nod.

BTW if I had a ballot he might be #2 on mine right now but Mack is the clear leader at this point IMO, in part because he is due.

Voters are human and the Hart is a narrative driven award.

How many All Stars are the other guys playing with again?

Still this type of argument isn't a strong one for the Hart IMO as it's so team based.

 

[keglu]

I dunno man, it’s not really worth debating. No minds are being changed here.

To those that watch him the most Pasta has had a clear leap since he finished 2nd in the Hart and scored 60 goals. He likely won’t score 60 again and he might actually have lower points and the Bruins narrative isn’t really getting picked up by the talking heads. But he is a far better and more impactful player with much less talent around him. Shoot, apparently he is the best team in the East’s only skater worthy of an All Star nod. How many All Stars are the other guys playing with again?

He was second in Hart voting since he was second in scoring amongst best forwards on their teams.
He maybe improved this season but he is pacing to be 4th in that ranking this year with significant gap to other 3 so he will most likely finish around 4th place.
Also you clearly underselling defensive side of hockey as part of team success when comparing Pasta team to other candidates teams.

 

[wintersej]

He was second in Hart voting since he was second in scoring amongst best forwards on their teams.
He maybe improved this season but he is pacing to be 4th in that ranking this year with significant gap to other 3 so he will most likely finish around 4th place.
Also you clearly underselling defensive side of hockey as part of team success when comparing Pasta team to other candidates teams.

The Bruins are the worst team out of Colorado, Tampa and Vancouver when it comes to allowing high danger chances and are in the bottom third of the league. Only Tampa is worse for shots allowed.

Bergeron is gone.

If you want the long version…

To account for the center position being so weak, the Bruins have adjusted their breakouts to be ultra conservative with the forwards coming down lower to help on the breakouts instead of last years ultra aggressive breakouts where the weak side D would jump into the attack. Because their neutral zone coverage with a strong center group was so good they could afford to be a bit more reckless on their exits. This was a big part of them exceed expectations last year as they were always on the attack and had people on their heels.

But the centers left and Florida exposed their aggressive breakouts with an even more aggressive forecheck. Between the system change and the personnel changes the Bruins are not the team they were. They still have good structure in their own end, but they are defending a CRAP load more. They have struggled defensively between the blue lines (one of the worst odd man rush allowed teams, although that has been improving) and have struggled defending the high slot. You can point a finger straight at the center group for that.

Anyway, point is the Bruins are a team with a center group of Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha (who was about to get non-tendered by NJ if you recall). Pasta’s teammates (both the D group via the breakout changes and the C group) helping get the puck a lot less and Pasta is having to do a lot more on his own with far less opportunities to be in the offensive zone he didn’t create himself.

 

[keglu]

The Bruins are the worst team out of Colorado, Tampa and Vancouver when it comes to allowing high danger chances and are in the bottom third of the league. Only Tampa is worse for shots allowed.

So give Hart to their goalies. How are high danger chances relevant to actual results?. 128 allowed goals is actual result that translates into points.
Offensively Pasta contribution to goal team goal totals (42%) is lower than Mackinnon (44%) and Kucherov (49%). Kucherov also outproduces closest teammates by higher margin than Pasta.

 

[wintersej]

So give Hart to their goalies. How are high danger chances relevant to actual results?. 128 allowed goals is actual result that translates into points.
Offensively Pasta contribution to goal team goal totals (42%) is lower than Mackinnon (44%) and Kucherov (49%). Kucherov also outproduces closest teammates by higher margin than Pasta.

I voted for Mac in the poll. I’m just arguing that Pasta is right there. Mac gets a lot of minutes with Rantanen which certainly is going to help bump up his points percentage compared to Zacha, Coyle, JVR and Geekie. And Colorado obviously has a great puck moving blueline. He has more support than Pasta pretty clearly.

Kucherov is an interesting case because he is probably having the best offensive season out of all of them, but his team isn’t very good, which just is always a weird thing to deal with when thinking about Hart votes.

I voted Mac because it’s close and he is “due”. Which may be a bit cynical, but it’s the nature of this award.

 

[keglu]

I voted for Mac in the poll. I’m just arguing that Pasta is right there. Mac gets a lot of minutes with Rantanen which certainly is going to help bump up his points percentage compared to Zacha, Coyle, JVR and Geekie. And Colorado obviously has a great puck moving blueline. He has more support than Pasta pretty clearly.

Kucherov is an interesting case because he is probably having the best offensive season out of all of them, but his team isn’t very good, which just is always a weird thing to deal with when thinking about Hart votes.

I voted Mac because it’s close and he is “due”. Which may be a bit cynical, but it’s the nature of this award.

If points gap is around 20points i dont think he stands a chance but we will see.
Kucherov is interesting case indeed. Last year he was 3rd in scoring and only 12th in Hart voting behind Rantanen and Draisatl who where not even best players on their teams.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

He was second in Hart voting since he was second in scoring amongst best forwards on their teams.
He maybe improved this season but he is pacing to be 4th in that ranking this year with significant gap to other 3 so he will most likely finish around 4th place.
Also you clearly underselling defensive side of hockey as part of team success when comparing Pasta team to other candidates teams.

That and he carried the team to the best record of all time.

No one besides him had 70 points or 30 goals on last year's team.

He led in points by 68% (113 vs 67)
He led in goals by 125% (61 vs 27)

A feat that he's repeating this year while raising his PPG and with worse centers

 

[Buck Naked]

Ok fair enough. But do you think the reason Boston has one of the best records again this year instead of being a bubble team like some people thought they might is the difference between him this year and last year? Or were some people just overestimating how the losses would affect the team? Because that was essentially the argument being made that I didn’t agree with. His candidacy should be based on how good he’s been and/or how good he’s been relative to how his team, not how good he’s been relative to his team’s expectations

I never said voting should be based on expectations. I just said what the expectations were before the season and what the outcome was and why I think it happened. Because of Pastrnak, who I think is carrying his team more than what MacKinnon or Kucherov does.

 

[bobholly39]

Both Matthews and McDavid are going to make a very strong push for the Hart Trophy by year end in my opinion, and here's why:

Matthews - I've been saying all year he'll top 70 goals, and I still think he does. 70 goals in today's era would be insane. He is only pacing for ~102 points. He'd have to up his scoring pace a bit, and top ~110-115 to seriously contend for hart, but it's possible.

McDavid - He's still close enough to Kuch/Mack in scoring race, with also ~5 games in hand on them, and he is a super strong finisher usually late in seasons. Good chance he passes both and wins Art Ross. So by end of year, that would give him a very strong 2nd half, a ross, and a hell of a come from behnind victory in Ross and mostly leading Oilers to an insane in-season turn around. Lots of strong narratives for Hart there if this plays out

Kuch and Mack are both still definitely top 2 as of now - but I expect those are the 4 players who will contend for #1 by year end. I'd be shocked to see anyone else win - Hughes, Pastrnak, Makar...a few other players could conceivably finish in the top 4, but I think the hart winner will be one of Matthews, McDavid, Kuch or Mack.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I’ve gotta say Pastrnak’s season has really impressed me. Mixed in with people saying Boston was gonna be at best a 95 point team I’d say he should be high in the race

He’s not pacing for 140 like Mackinnon or kucherov but he also doesn’t have a 110 point rantanen/Makar or even a ppg player like point/hedman. Hes got Marchand at 47 in 49 and then coyle at 42. Coyle would be 5th in scoring on Colorado and 6th on tampa

This is the second year in a row where he’s outpacing his best teammate by around 40 points. Doing that on the leagues best team over the last 2 years

I think if he can stay within 15-20 points of Mackinnon and kucherov I’d be willing to give him
Mackinnon has the most high end support and even good depth scoring
Pastrnak has the least high end support but just as strong depth scoring as Mackinnon
Kucherov has the worst depth but middle high end support of the other two

If I had to pick one I’d say pastrnak.

He’d need to win the Rocket for real consideration.

 

[Grifter3511]

115 points, 1st place team in the league, helping turn Lafreniere into a legitimate top line player.....Panarin deserves more Hart recognition than he will most likely get.

 

[North Cole]

Kuch

 

[hamzarocks]

Kucherov

 

[ricky0034]

Kucherov's 50+ point lead on his closest teammate on top of his general production is pretty compelling to me

 

[HolyHagelin]

Homer vote, because i am a homer

 

[Faceboner]

Art ross- Mackinnon
Hart-kucherov
Lindsey- McDavid
Mackinnon ends up with the most points and 50 goals and 2nd in Hart. Kucherov drags lightning to playoffs and McDavid hits a 100 assists and closes in and threatens for a sweep after a rough start and a seemingly impossible gap to overcome winning the lindsey

 

[Regal]

I’ve had it as MacKinnon for awhile, but Kucherov is starting to sway me. Still some time to see how things play out

 

[LemonSauceD]

Kucherov Art Ross and Hart
Lindsey probably McDavid or Mackinnon

 

[Mitch nylander]

My Ranking

1. Kucherov: Will lead the league in points, has 51 point more than his second best teammate. Best scoring season by a winger in forever. Only winger to ever hit 90 assists.

2. Mcdavid: Going to join elite company of Orr, Lemieux and Gretzky as the only player to hit 100 assists. 2nd in points per game right now.

3. Mackinnon - Fantastic Season, great home point streak, 130+ points. Only guy of the top 4, who won't really have a history book finish.

4. Matthews: Best goal scoring season since Mario Lemieux, could break Ovi's best season ever, while be the most defensively responsible of the top group.
----------------
5. Pastrnak: Carrying Boston to an Atlantic division win. Has 41 more points than any of his teammates, likely gets 50 goals, 110 points

6. Hellebuyck: Going to win the Vezina and has been the reason for Winnipeg's success. Without him I doubt they are nearly as good.

7. Panarin: Similar to Pastrnak, just carrying the rangers to a Metro win. 40 more points than any teammate. Could hit 50 goals.

8. Crosby: He's essentially carrying the Penguins to a playoff birth. Good defensive season with likely 90+ points.

 

[Bijelo]

Kucherov
Hellebuyck
Hughes

Probably.

I voted Hughes.