Confirmed Signing with Link: [MTL] Sebastian Aho signs an offer sheet with the Canadiens (5 years, $8.454M AAV) - Pt. 2

[elite1prospects]

Next CBA needs to make a rule that if you give a RFA a bonus in a contract on the first day the team giving the offer sheet needs to pay it

That is the most ridiculous thing I've heard today

 

[Stuzchuk]

How long does Carolina have to match?

7 days

 

[Ola]

He may be worth a billion dollars, but does he have 20 million dollars in his bank account that he can withdraw this year and invest even more into Sebastian Aho?

What if he has to sell stocks or land or something for Aho? Will he be willing to do it to save his franchise from fan disgruntlement or will he let him go to have a better chance to cut a profit this season. Very interesting.

We don't know the exact numbers on how the organization work and whats going on with Dundons bank/investments from the outside. Assuming he can pay it and will simply drop 21M$ because he has investments worth billions like he has an unlimited supply is not a fool proof deal. Im hoping he chooses to let him go. We'll see

But the way the offer is designed, he will certainly — lose money — if he doesn’t chip in now. His NHL team loses its best player and take a huge step back without getting anything substantial in return. If 4 firsts was on the table, the return would at least be substantial.

And it’s not like it’s 20m extra in one year, half of that would have been paid anyway in year 1 and half of it in year 2 (basically).

Sure I could be wrong, but my reaction is just that it’s a very weak and naive attempt.

 

[Hacketts]

How long does Carolina have to match?

6 days 17 hours 34 seconds

but who's counting

 

[MC94]

Sorry, but if the offer was never going to be accepted and it only benefited the player, it's a con job on the Habs.

Worse still he got rid of a 20 goal player to play the con.

See the tweet I posted above.

Why would the gm not say he would match lol he obviously wanted to reduce the risk of potential offer sheets ultimatly it is the owners decision not his

 

[TopTenPlayz]

It's 0 risk for montreal and ****s in Carolina's soup either way.

Yup 0 risk but also 0 reward either. The whole world knows that this is a weak offer sheet. Should have given Aho the two extra millions and the extra first rounder if he was somewhat serious about acquiring him. I don't buy into bergevins explanation with the signing bonus and $21M for the first 12 month crap. Seems a lot like a publicity stunt especially with the way he insisted about how he wanted to "show the fans, the players, Molson about his commitment to win".

He even acknowledged that he only talked to Waddell this morning. My guess is that made all that cap room for Duchene and then it blew up in his face and didn't have a concrete plan afterward. And he had to do something to save face otherwise there'll be a riot in mtl

 

[AvatarAang]

That is the most ridiculous thing I've heard today

Okay but what if I told you:

The Isles let Lehner leave because he wanted too much term. They then ended up signing Varlamov with too much term.

Lehner left the Isles because he wanted more term. Lehner then signed a one year deal.

 

[Natey]

Yup 0 risk but also 0 reward either. The whole world knows that this is a weak offer sheet. Should have given Aho the two extra millions and the extra first rounder if he was somewhat serious about acquiring him. I don't buy into bergevins explanation with the signing bonus and $21M for the first 12 month crap. Seems a lot like a publicity stunt especially with the way he insisted about how he wanted to "show the fans, the players, Molson about his commitment to win".

He even acknowledged that he only talked to Waddell this morning. My guess is that made all that cap room for Duchene and then it blew up in his face and didn't have a concrete plan afterward. And he had to do something to save face otherwise there'll be a riot in mtl

The extra 1st rounder means nothing. And the extra couple million in the first year means nothing. Literally nothing changes.

 

[Chips]

But the way the offer is designed, he will certainly — lose money — if he doesn’t chip in now. His NHL team loses its best player and take a huge step back without getting anything substantial in return. If 4 firsts was on the table, the return would at least be substantial.

And it’s not like it’s 20m extra in one year, half of that would have been paid anyway in year 1 and half of it in year 2 (basically).

Sure I could be wrong, but my reaction is just that it’s a very weak and naive attempt.

You’re not wrong, but even still, you don’t want to add too much debt too soon. It depends how much $ he already owes, has tied up, expects to have to commit to other ventures in the near future, etc. $20 million is very much still a lot of money to a billionaire.

I think it’s only a naive offer IF the Habs were dead set on aquiring Aho. I think they’d like to, but they’ve had a long term plan all along before even realizing that Ahos contract talks would stall. They don’t know his finances, might as well call his bluff with no risk.

 

[MC94]

But the way the offer is designed, he will certainly — lose money — if he doesn’t chip in now. His NHL team loses its best player and take a huge step back without getting anything substantial in return. If 4 firsts was on the table, the return would at least be substantial.

And it’s not like it’s 20m extra in one year, half of that would have been paid anyway in year 1 and half of it in year 2 (basically).

Sure I could be wrong, but my reaction is just that it’s a very weak and naive attempt.

If there is a lockout Carolina is still paying Aho to not play due to the bonuses, the owner will have to keep this in mind before he lets them match the offer it is still not going to happen but it is in the realm of possibility that this actually ends up working out for montreal

 

[ForeverHabs97]

Are you guys for real? I bet any idiot can get a 20 million loan if they are the owner of an NHL team just because of that fact. Since when do sports team need to make a profit each and every season? Come on.

Or maybe the Hurricanes think its not worth commiting 21M$ for a single player compared to their seasonal revenue. Why did MB state the AAV had nothing to do with Canes chances of matching? He said it was about how the contract was structured.

Maybe the risk/deficit is something they (Canes) wont want to go forward with, that would be MB's mindset in the OS strategy. None of us really know the whole picture of the Canes financial structure, Dundon by extension. Pure speculation I think

 

[Brownies]

Are you guys for real? I bet any idiot can get a 20 million loan if they are the owner of an NHL team just because of that fact. Since when do sports team need to make a profit each and every season? Come on.

Yeah, people are acting like he needs to free and give 20 M in 7 days... I’m pretty sure NHLer aren’t paid 100pcent of their contracts the first day... I’m an Habs fan and still like this move by Bergevin, because it’s a good contract for Aho. I still don’t really expect him to be in an Habs jersey this fall, but at least there’s a small chance.

 

[ForeverHabs97]

But the way the offer is designed, he will certainly — lose money — if he doesn’t chip in now. His NHL team loses its best player and take a huge step back without getting anything substantial in return. If 4 firsts was on the table, the return would at least be substantial.

And it’s not like it’s 20m extra in one year, half of that would have been paid anyway in year 1 and half of it in year 2 (basically).

Sure I could be wrong, but my reaction is just that it’s a very weak and naive attempt.

But from MB's/Habs perspective at the press conference, 4x 1st round picks isn't worth throwing at Aho, as great of a player he is and will be. His team calculated the AAV/compensation he went for gave him the best chance, and helped him save cap space for future contracts/Rfas in the future. I think he couldve gone 2 x 1st 1 x 2nd 1 x 3rd (higher AAV/Compensation bracket) but he knows his teams plans better than anyone outside the organization.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Or maybe the Hurricanes think its not worth commiting 21M$ for a single player compared to their seasonal revenue. Why did MB state the AAV had nothing to do with Canes chances of matching? He said it was about how the contract was structured.

Maybe the risk/deficit is something they (Canes) wont want to go forward with, that would be MB's mindset in the OS strategy. None of us really know the whole picture of the Canes financial structure, Dundon by extension. Pure speculation I think

i think it's highly unlikely that the hurricanes (or any team) view seasonal revenue as july 5th to july 5th (when the bonuses are due). most likely they are viewing this year's signing bonus as part of 19-20, and next year's signing bonus as part of 20-21.

once again, aho's salary in 20-21 is only 700k. people acting like it's a big deal that they're paying ~$21m in the first year are ignoring that it's ~$22m total in the first two seasons.

this combined with using ticket revenue from two seasons ago is painting a very misleading picture of the team's finances.

 

[Super Cake]

7 days

 

[Habidelidoo]

It's 11M the bonus, not 21M. Just saying.

 

[Icarium]

Why did MB state the AAV had nothing to do with Canes chances of matching?

What do you expect him to say - "This is a PR stunt with next to zero chance of success"?

None of us really know the whole picture of the Canes financial structure, Dundon by extension.

You need to know their whole financial structure to realize that losing their best player for almost nothing usually isn't exactly profitable? Especially after finally creating some fan enthusiasm and having playoff success. If the Canes were a team with a good shot of making the playoffs even without Aho then maybe there would have been room for doubt but that's not the case.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Or maybe the Hurricanes think its not worth commiting 21M$ for a single player compared to their seasonal revenue. Why did MB state the AAV had nothing to do with Canes chances of matching? He said it was about how the contract was structured.

Maybe the risk/deficit is something they (Canes) wont want to go forward with, that would be MB's mindset in the OS strategy. None of us really know the whole picture of the Canes financial structure, Dundon by extension. Pure speculation I think

It is. Aho is the heart of the team. I am sure though that this is not what they planned.

 

[CheMxDawG]

It is. Aho is the heart of the team. I am sure though that this is not what they planned.

Yeah, we planned for a higher OS.

 

[loudi94]

Those that believe the Habs should have offered more have to consider that offering Aho more would have altered the Habs own salary structure (and the league for that matter) most negatively. What to do with Domi, Kotka etc when their turn comes up if you threw 10.5 at Aho? The up front money and the fact Aho was willing to sign it, is the only real hand they have here. Best case scenario for Montreal is that it opens a dialogue between the two teams to come up with a mutually beneficial side deal. Aho got what he wanted. Money and term.

 

[znk]

It's 11M the bonus, not 21M. Just saying.

It's 11 M first year 10 M second year but they ahve to be paid at the start of the year so thats why its $21M by 356 days.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

I haven't read most of the comments or "in-depth" analysis on this deal, but one thing that nobody here seems to be acknowledging:

Bergevin has had all week to talk with Aho and his agent and they're clearly very familiar with what Waddell is and isn't willing to pay for Aho's services.

Everyone's acting like Bergevin just picked a random number out of thin air, but I think he's been working on this for a while.

 

[ForeverHabs97]

i think it's highly unlikely that the hurricanes (or any team) view seasonal revenue as july 5th to july 5th (when the bonuses are due). most likely they are viewing this year's signing bonus as part of 19-20, and next year's signing bonus as part of 20-21.

once again, aho's salary in 20-21 is only 700k. people acting like it's a big deal that they're paying ~$21m in the first year are ignoring that it's ~$22m total in the first two years.

You might be right, which they could do half of the 21m this year and half at the next year and not having to worry about his salary (700k). Either way if its a one year or takes two years for those signing bonuses, many people today have stated from reading on capgeek that Canes have 0$ in signing bonuses towards their roster.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong on those facts, but it definitely makes me wonder what's actually going on with the canes financial situation. I also don't have a Ph. D in Finances or anything myself, so let's remind ourselves we're just fans making wild speculative opinions please and thank you.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Part III is up.

I'll give this a minute before I close it.

 

[Chips]

Yeah, people are acting like he needs to free and give 20 M in 7 days... I’m pretty sure NHLer aren’t paid 100pcent of their contracts the first day... I’m an Habs fan and still like this move by Bergevin, because it’s a good contract for Aho. I still don’t really expect him to be in an Habs jersey this fall, but at least there’s a small chance.

It’s still debt. He could have a lot of debt owed already, lots of rich people do. He’d have to add $10mil, which can be hard enough to pay back within a year, and then he has another 10 right away.

If he has the manouverability of course he’ll match it, it’s just that small “if” chance that he’s in a bad spot. Worth the basically 0 risk. I think a lot of the people critizing MB for this deal like to think he’s trying way harder than he actually is for Aho lol