Confirmed Signing with Link: [MTL] Habs sign Nick Suzuki to extension (8 years, $7.875M AAV)

[The Great Weal]

So Caufield isn't that good?

He and Suzuki are the only good forwards. A guy like Stutzle plays with Tkachuk and Giroux at even strength then with Debrincat, Chabot and Batherson on the PP forming a top 3 PP in the league. Suzuki is only looking for CC because those two are the only ones who can score goals which shows with their dead last PP.

 

[TS Quint]

He and Suzuki are the only good forwards. A guy like Stutzle plays with Tkachuk and Giroux at even strength then with Debrincat, Chabot and Batherson on the PP forming a top 3 PP in the league. Suzuki is only looking for CC because those two are the only ones who can score goals which shows with their dead last PP.

That's not the conversation. The person I replied to said it's not Suzuki fault he isn't better it's the kids he plays with specifically Caufield.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

So Caufield isn't that good?

No until there’s a Caufield topic again where we can read he has to play with a good but not great center otherwise he would be a 50 goal scorer.

This is how we keep fooling each other.

 

[The Great Weal]

That's not the conversation. The person I replied to said it's not Suzuki fault he isn't better it's the kids he plays with specifically Caufield.

That's really not what the poster said but ok.

 

[dukeofjive]

Kid is such a breath of fresh air for this habs fan, also i love the hot takes from hfboards, keep hem coming makes a long day at work so much more fun.

 

[TS Quint]

That's really not what the poster said but ok.

Caufield turned 22 a few days ago, Dach is 21. The most common dmen on the ice with them when they play are 20 and 21. Suzuki is a playmaker surrounded by children. He's producing, a big part of his line not finishing is age.

No, it's exactly what they said. These young players, Caufield specifically listed, are wasting Suzuki's playmaking because of their age. Disagree with that poster not me. I'm just asking FOR THEM to clarify.

 

[Just Linda]

Caufield turned 22 a few days ago, Dach is 21. The most common dmen on the ice with them when they play are 20 and 21. Suzuki is a playmaker surrounded by children. He's producing, a big part of his line not finishing is age.

No, it's exactly what they said. These young players, Caufield specifically listed, are wasting Suzuki's playmaking because of their age. Disagree with that poster not me. I'm just asking FOR THEM to clarify.

Caufield is good but no goal scorer is going to get as many goals as Caufield gets without a setup man. Few setup men can pile up points without a finisher. Habs a dynamic duo team, it's really just the two of them.

 

[jfhabs]

Suzuki has always given me the impression that he is a Plekanec in his prime. A 25 goal, 65 point centre, responsible 200 foot player. He has yet to show that he is able to cope with the added attention he receives as the de facto #1 center, especially when on the road.

Suzuki is a perfect 1B/2 center. IMHO, his best season points wise should be around 80 points. This is why it is most important for the Habs to win the lottery this spring to get a true #1 center so that Suzuki will be perfectly placed to help carry the load offensively.

Plekanec was relying a lot more on his winger for offense, he did have the offensive vision and shot Suzuki has. He had the luxury of playing on much better edition of the habs so far. Even tho I don't believe Suzuki didn't reach his max potential yet, he has a career ppg of 0.72 compared to plekanec's 0.61. Suzuki is 17% more productive and that number should climb. It's quite significant. Plekanec was more of a 50-60 player, while Suzuki will more likely be a 70-80 pts while scoring more goals in the process. Plekanec's game was a lot more oriented on defensive play.

I don't think he'll be a top center league wise, but he's a lower end 1C. Somewhere in the 20-30 range depending on the season. It's much harder for him to produce, because he's on the only line that produces.

 

[jfhabs]

Caufield is good but no goal scorer is going to get as many goals as Caufield gets without a setup man. Few setup men can pile up points without a finisher. Habs a dynamic duo team, it's really just the two of them.

Dach is a good complimentary player, but after that, we really don't really have a guy to carry the offense.

Anderson is a horse, but has tunnel vision. He'll score his 20-25 goals, but don't expect him to make others around him better.

Dvorak is ok, but he's more of a good 3C, he doesn't bring the offense on a regular basis.

Really, the other teams only have to focus on Suzuki and Caufield... considering their age, what they've been doing this year is quite impressive if you ask me. Each point is not equal. It's not the same as Thomas/Kyrou last year for example.

 

[Baksfamous112]

That he is, but he isnt as good as Habs fans have been thumping their chest about either.

He’s been everything we hoped for and more. What’s your point exactly? That he isn’t worth his contract?

 

[ninetyeight]

Great fun to watch player easily worth his contract. Very typical hfboards to see all the haters pile up when someone is going through a rougher patch.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Insecure Sens fans swarming this thread it seems

 

[bert]

It’s a difference of 5 points

One player is playing at a 91 point pace the other is playing at a 70 point pace.

That being said Suzuki is a great player on a great contract.

He’s been everything we hoped for and more. What’s your point exactly? That he isn’t worth his contract?

No he is worth it for sure.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Suzuki has always given me the impression that he is a Plekanec in his prime. A 25 goal, 65 point centre, responsible 200 foot player. He has yet to show that he is able to cope with the added attention he receives as the de facto #1 center, especially when on the road.

Suzuki is a perfect 1B/2 center. IMHO, his best season points wise should be around 80 points. This is why it is most important for the Habs to win the lottery this spring to get a true #1 center so that Suzuki will be perfectly placed to help carry the load offensively.

While they may put up similar numbers in their primes, Suzuki is much more dangerous offensively. You never saw Pleks snipe on the power play or penalty shots like Suzuki. I don't remember Plek being that much of a playmaker either. But his prime has to be 12-15 years ago now so its hard to remember.

Suzuki can fill in at #1C while Pleks was always just a 2. Suzuki would be a #2 c on a cup contender while Pleks was a 2c on the 10-15 habs.

 

[Just Linda]

While they may put up similar numbers in their primes, Suzuki is much more dangerous offensively. You never saw Pleks snipe on the power play or penalty shots like Suzuki. I don't remember Plek being that much of a playmaker either. But his prime has to be 12-15 years ago now so its hard to remember.

Suzuki can fill in at #1C while Pleks was always just a 2. Suzuki would be a #2 c on a cup contender while Pleks was a 2c on the 10-15 habs.

Plek was a sniper, he rarely missed the target. His shots were always on the mark, he hardly ever missed the goalies' chests. No matter where he shot from, it always hit the chest of the goalie. He'd miss about 20 shots a year, those ended up being goals.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think this is still a fine contract. Suzuki is a very good young player, but this regression was inevitable, as predicted here. At that point he was shooting at 26% with a 15.1% on ice shooting percentage.

Honestly, he still has more regression to come - his shooting percentage is still at 21% and his 5v5 on ice shooting percentage is still at 13.0%. His 15 goals 34 points in 40gp should probably be 8-10 goals and 25-29 points, which is a 50-60 point pace.

I think he's a better offensive player than that, but he's playing on a pretty bad team. On a decent team he's probably a 60-75 point guy most years.

But some habs fans got a little excited calling for him to score 40-50 goals and 90-100 points, comparing him to guys like Stutzle, Hughes, Hischier, Pettersson etc. He just doesn't generate enough shots to approach those numbers and warrant those comparisons. He's only averaging 1.80 shots per game, down from 2.26 last year.

1.8 shots per game is 81st among the 204 centers with >20gp. And the quality and quantity of his deployment is a lot more favorable then the overwhelming majority of guys on that list. He's 5th among centers in TOI - the average shots per game of the 4 guys above him is 3.63, more than double Suzuki's average.

Those numbers have to go up if he's going to outperform this contract. He hasn't had more than 2 shots in a game since Dec 17th, and he's only done it 8 times all year.

He's got a great shot but he needs to find ways to use it more. If not, there's a good chance he settles in as more of a high end 2C instead of the franchise 1C many were predicting him to become. I think he'll figure it out as the team gets better and adds more talent - he's an extremely smart player. Worst case scenario, $7.9M still isn't a terrible price tag these days for a 1B/2A center.

I'm sure some Habs fans are hoping he does become a 2C, but only because he's behind Bedard, Carlsson, or Fantilli. I think that he's the perfect type of guy to play behind an elite franchise center honestly - any one of those 3 + Suzuki would be a cup capable 1-2 punch.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Plekanec was relying a lot more on his winger for offense, he did have the offensive vision and shot Suzuki has. He had the luxury of playing on much better edition of the habs so far. Even tho I don't believe Suzuki didn't reach his max potential yet, he has a career ppg of 0.72 compared to plekanec's 0.61. Suzuki is 17% more productive and that number should climb. It's quite significant. Plekanec was more of a 50-60 player, while Suzuki will more likely be a 70-80 pts while scoring more goals in the process. Plekanec's game was a lot more oriented on defensive play.

I don't think he'll be a top center league wise, but he's a lower end 1C. Somewhere in the 20-30 range depending on the season. It's much harder for him to produce, because he's on the only line that produces.

I'll say nothing about the Plekanec/Suzuki comparison, but Plekanec played several seasons, accounting for about 120 games, after the game had passed him by. And average scoring leaguewide during each player's sample rises almost 10% for Suzuki's.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Insecure Sens fans swarming this thread it seems

Oh no, a whopping 2 senator fans commenting in a Suzuki thread, what are you guys going to do? Swarm the stutzle thread??

 

[jfhabs]

I'll say nothing about the Plekanec/Suzuki comparison, but Plekanec played several seasons, accounting for about 120 games, after the game had passed him by. And average scoring leaguewide during each player's sample rises almost 10% for Suzuki's.

Yes, but at the same time Suzuki didn't play on teams as good as Plekanec so far. 2 years ago the edition that made it to the cup was good, but there were so many injuries during the season until the playoffs and it was Suzuki's rookie season.

 

[jfhabs]

I think this is still a fine contract. Suzuki is a very good young player, but this regression was inevitable, as predicted here. At that point he was shooting at 26% with a 15.1% on ice shooting percentage.

Honestly, he still has more regression to come - his shooting percentage is still at 21% and his 5v5 on ice shooting percentage is still at 13.0%. His 15 goals 34 points in 40gp should probably be 8-10 goals and 25-29 points, which is a 50-60 point pace.

I think he's a better offensive player than that, but he's playing on a pretty bad team. On a decent team he's probably a 60-75 point guy most years.

But some habs fans got a little excited calling for him to score 40-50 goals and 90-100 points, comparing him to guys like Stutzle, Hughes, Hischier, Pettersson etc. He just doesn't generate enough shots to approach those numbers and warrant those comparisons. He's only averaging 1.80 shots per game, down from 2.26 last year.

1.8 shots per game is 81st among the 204 centers with >20gp. And the quality and quantity of his deployment is a lot more favorable then the overwhelming majority of guys on that list. He's 5th among centers in TOI - the average shots per game of the 4 guys above him is 3.63, more than double Suzuki's average.

Those numbers have to go up if he's going to outperform this contract. He hasn't had more than 2 shots in a game since Dec 17th, and he's only done it 8 times all year.

He's got a great shot but he needs to find ways to use it more. If not, there's a good chance he settles in as more of a high end 2C instead of the franchise 1C many were predicting him to become. I think he'll figure it out as the team gets better and adds more talent - he's an extremely smart player. Worst case scenario, $7.9M still isn't a terrible price tag these days for a 1B/2A center.

I'm sure some Habs fans are hoping he does become a 2C, but only because he's behind Bedard, Carlsson, or Fantilli. I think that he's the perfect type of guy to play behind an elite franchise center honestly - any one of those 3 + Suzuki would be a cup capable 1-2 punch.

He is absolutely comparable to Hischier and Stutzle right now. Hughes and Petterson are on another level offensively. Playing on a better offensive team would benefit Suzuki a lot. Right now he plays tougher competition, rarely has the benefits of having someone else creating plays for him, plays the PK and plays as the Captain in a tough market with added pressure for the cherry on top.

I do agree about the shooting % going down to 15% ish. But, it's very possible he starts shooting more in the process to negate the shooting % regression a bit. The goal he has scored until now won't disappear

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He is absolutely comparable to Hischier and Stutzle right now. Hughes and Petterson are on another level offensively. Playing on a better offensive team would benefit Suzuki a lot. Right now he plays tougher competition, rarely has the benefits of having someone else creating plays for him, plays the PK and plays as the Captain in a tough market with added pressure for the cherry on top.

I do agree about the shooting % going down to 15% ish. But, it's very possible he starts shooting more in the process to negate the shooting % regression a bit. The goal he has scored until now won't disappear

He's not even close to Stutzle. Stutzle is 3 years younger and scoring at a 91 point pace vs Suzuki's 69 point pace - he is already on a different tier and will likely be multiple tiers ahead of Suzuki by the time he's his age. Suzuki had 41 points in 70gp when he was Stutzle's age. Stutzle is only 2 points back of that in half of the games.

And Hischier is on a 79 point pace while being one of the best defensive centers in the league. So despite Suzuki benefiting from unsustainable shooting percentage and on ice sh%, both guys have been easily the more productive players.

Suzuki shot at only 11.3% last year and 13.6% the following (and that's right where he's been shooting at since mid-late November) so he'd probably need continued luck to stay above 15% from here on out.

 

[jfhabs]

He's not even close to Stutzle. Stutzle is 3 years younger and scoring at a 91 point pace vs Suzuki's 69 point pace - he is already on a different tier and will likely be multiple tiers ahead of Suzuki by the time he's his age. Suzuki had 41 points in 70gp when he was Stutzle's age. Stutzle is only 2 points back of that in half of the games.

And Hischier is on a 79 point pace while being one of the best defensive centers in the league. So despite Suzuki benefiting from unsustainable shooting percentage and on ice sh%, both guys have been easily the more productive players.

Suzuki shot at only 11.3% last year and 13.6% the following (and that's right where he's been shooting at since mid-late November) so he'd probably need continued luck to stay above 15% from here on out.

FYI Stutzle is also shooting at 20%.
I think he's a more dynamic player, but Suzuki and Hischier are contributing on both sides of the ice.

Again, I think the impact of playing with better players is very underrated.
Hischier should be the prime example of that. Before and after Bratt, Hughes, etc.
0.72 career ppg for Hischier and 0.71 career ppg for Suzuki.... how are they not comparable?



Edit : also wants to add, it's funny how higher shooting % automatically needs to correlate to more lucky. Perhaps the players create better shooting opportunity?

 

[toxic poster]

FYI Stutzle is also shooting at 20%.
I think he's a more dynamic player, but Suzuki and Hischier are contributing on both sides of the ice.

his 5v5 sh% is 8.26%. almost like his goal scoring is incredibly sustainable when you play on one of the best powerplay's in the league.


stutzle has also just simply been better in his own end this season that suzuki but one gets to coast on reputation

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

FYI Stutzle is also shooting at 20%.
I think he's a more dynamic player, but Suzuki and Hischier are contributing on both sides of the ice.

Again, I think the impact of playing with better players is very underrated.
Hischier should be the prime example of that. Before and after Bratt, Hughes, etc.
0.72 career ppg for Hischier and 0.71 career ppg for Suzuki.... how are they not comparable?

Stutzle's on ice sh% is 8.5% vs Suzuki's 13% lol. It's not close. Also Stutzle is just as good defensively as Suzuki, if not better.

Hischier was a teenager before and after Bratt/Hughes and then got injured lol.

He's been very clearly the superior player in the last 2 years. All the numbers support this, as does the eye test.

 

[jfhabs]

Stutzle's on ice sh% is 8.5% vs Suzuki's 13% lol. It's not close. Also Stutzle is just as good defensively as Suzuki, if not better.

Hischier was a teenager before and after Bratt/Hughes and then got injured lol.

He's been very clearly the superior player in the last 2 years. All the numbers support this, as does the eye test.

The eye tests clearly says otherwise. I've yet to see numbers to are able to correctly isolate the true impact of 1 player in hockey. I'm not against stats and all, but it's still not good enough imo.

From my personal experience the team a players plays on as a huge impact on how well the player will produce. I think there's a lot of that happening here.

his 5v5 sh% is 8.26%. almost like his goal scoring is incredibly sustainable when you play on one of the best powerplay's in the league.


stutzle has also just simply been better in his own end this season that suzuki but one gets to coast on reputation

View attachment 632641View attachment 632642

These fancy graph are more indicative of the team the player plays on then the pure impact of 1 player.

Suzuki is a good 200ft player on a piss pour team defensively. It's not just reputation, try a watch a game ffs