Confirmed Signing with Link: [MTL] Habs sign Nick Suzuki to extension (8 years, $7.875M AAV)

[toxic poster]

The eye tests clearly says otherwise. I've yet to see numbers to are able to correctly isolate the true impact of 1 player in hockey. I'm not against stats and all, but it's still not good enough imo.

From my personal experience the team a players plays on as a huge impact on how well the player will produce. I think there's a lot of that happening here.


These fancy graph are more indicative of the team the player plays on then the pure impact of 1 player.

Suzuki is a good 200ft player on a piss pour team defensively. It's not just reputation, try a watch a game ffs

feel like i'm being trolled - no way anyone is actually this clueless - but i'm gonna bite anyway :

the whole issue with the eye test is that it's biased and stats can be used to back up the actual performance that you are watching. which I don't know if you're really watching him at all because he's consistently been a piss poor offensive player with an inability to drive play from the perimeter into dangerous areas. which just confirms your own cognitive biases from "the eye test".

no one is saying that environment isn't important to a players individual success but this is also why these stats use some really fun math to "isolate" a player's individual impact regardless of who they play with. he's not a good 200ft player (since MSL took over) and all of the information i provided above shows that. he's mediocre at best and actually bad in some regards if we're being frank.

have a great day.

 

[Benstheman]

The comparison is off because Suzuki is so much better offensively than Plek .

Yep way better offensively but Pleky was a big tier above Suzuki defensively.

That’s why the comparison is off imo.

 

[jfhabs]

feel like i'm being trolled - no way anyone is actually this clueless - but i'm gonna bite anyway :

the whole issue with the eye test is that it's biased and stats can be used to back up the actual performance that you are watching. which I don't know if you're really watching him at all because he's consistently been a piss poor offensive player with an inability to drive play from the perimeter into dangerous areas. which just confirms your own cognitive biases from "the eye test".

no one is saying that environment isn't important to a players individual success but this is also why these stats use some really fun math to "isolate" a player's individual impact regardless of who they play with. he's not a good 200ft player (since MSL took over) and all of the information i provided above shows that. he's mediocre at best and actually bad in some regards if we're being frank.

have a great day.

No you're not being trolled.
I have great interest in stats and models in general. I use it in my work on a regular basis.
None of the stats you posted or publicly available depicts a player pure impact accurately.

Of course there is bias with the eye test. Not sure who you are saying is piss poor offensively, but that would be inacurate for any of the 3 players discussed.

 

[Anardil]

The comparison is off because Suzuki is so much better offensively than Plek .

Get back to me when Suzuki tops 70 points.

 

[Anardil]

While they may put up similar numbers in their primes, Suzuki is much more dangerous offensively. You never saw Pleks snipe on the power play or penalty shots like Suzuki. I don't remember Plek being that much of a playmaker either. But his prime has to be 12-15 years ago now so its hard to remember.

Suzuki can fill in at #1C while Pleks was always just a 2. Suzuki would be a #2 c on a cup contender while Pleks was a 2c on the 10-15 habs.

I think both players are/have been miscast as the Habs #1 center simply because this organisation has been bereft of elite talent for almost 40 years. I REALLY like Suzuki, but in reality he would've been the 3rd line center on the last dynasty teams.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

He’s been meh so far, but the whole team has been.

 

[HarrySPlinkett]

Yep way better offensively but Pleky was a big tier above Suzuki defensively.

That’s why the comparison is off imo.

How good was Plekanec defensively when he was Suzuki’s age?

Almost nobody, especially centres, is elite defensively at 23.

 

[Sky04]

30 goal 70 pt player that is only going to get better. I think the Habs are quite happy.
Tied for top 10 in points for C
Tied for top 20 in Goals for C
But supposedly he's no good.
Keep me away from what ever kool-aid some are drinking.

On the Canadiens roster maybe cause he's 31st among centers 71st league wide. Habs tradition of developing mediocre forwards continues.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Oh no, a whopping 2 senator fans commenting in a Suzuki thread, what are you guys going to do? Swarm the stutzle thread??

Seems like we spotted an insecure Stutzle fan right there in the Suzuki thread

 

[jfhabs]

He’s been meh so far, but the whole team has been.

The whole team has been absolute shit outside of a handful of players, but it's a needed process

 

[Boxertim]

How good was Plekanec defensively when he was Suzuki’s age?

Almost nobody, especially centres, is elite defensively at 23.

Cough…..Dubois…..cough

 

[Regal]

How good was Plekanec defensively when he was Suzuki’s age?

Almost nobody, especially centres, is elite defensively at 23.

Eh, 23 isn’t that young really. A lot of players get better defensively from that point, but I’d say a fair amount of top two-way centres are elite defensively at an early age

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

How good was Plekanec defensively when he was Suzuki’s age?

Almost nobody, especially centres, is elite defensively at 23.

Nico Hischier has entered the chat.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

You won’t find a Habs fan that isn’t happy with this deal. We watched David Deshairnais being trotted our as the number one centre for multiple seasons. Suzuki will be just fine, he’s probably not going to win a scoring title or anything but if he can get you 70 points and has shown he elevates his play in the playoffs, he’s more than earned this deal. He led the team in playoff points in his sophomore season on a run to the cup finals. I don’t care what any chart or graph says. Love the player.

PS - Stutzle is a f***ing stud. He might be first overall in a redraft of that year. He’s also younger and was always expected to have the higher ceiling than a guy like Suzuki. Both guys can be good, these comparison pissing matches change no one’s mind.

 

[HarrySPlinkett]

Nico Hischier has entered the chat.

Good for him.

23 year old players are not finished products.

 

[My3Sons]

Generally useless?

Want to know who leads the league in on ice expected goals%? Tomas Tatar. Must be an absolute monster.

Suzuki is also middle of the pack in high danger expected goals at 162 of 294. Zach Hyman leads the league by a considerable margin at 12.91 (well ahead of McDavid at 7.83) and Panarin is 6th last in the league among forwards with 400+ minutes.

Just because someone generates a number measuring something doesn't mean that it means anything.

If you watch the current version of Tatar you'd see how this works. He plays with Hischier or Hughes. He almost always sticks to the text book smart play for a given situation. He is actually a very savvy veteran at this point. He does create or at least participate in a good number of chances. Defensively he's fine in that he mobile and always in right place. Of course, he is going to lose most board battles but the NJ system is quick enough he doesn't have to contend with many.

Where it falls down is that he doesn't have the hands anymore to really ramp up the quickness needed in front of the opposition net to fool the goalie and he doesn't have a shot anymore that really beats a goalie from any distance. He almost never makes a mental mistake. In its own way it's very impressive but his numbers are revealing about where the advanced stats have to end and where reality has to take over.

We've had this discussion on the NJ board where Tatar has some supporters as a bone fide top six winger based on the advanced stats and others who don't agree based in large part on the eye test. I think the weakness in the numbers is that they don't really account for botched opportunities. If Tatar is alone in the slot and the pass comes and he whiffs and gets a dribbler on net it's still seen as a high danger chance even if there is zero chance the shot will go in.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

On the Canadiens roster maybe cause he's 31st among centers 71st league wide. Habs tradition of developing mediocre forwards continues.

You have no idea of what mediocre means.

 

[Sky04]

You have no idea of what mediocre means.

Tampa plays the Canadiens like 4-5 times a year so yeah I see it often.

 

[Akrapovince]

You won’t find a Habs fan that isn’t happy with this deal. We watched David Deshairnais being trotted our as the number one centre for multiple seasons. Suzuki will be just fine, he’s probably not going to win a scoring title or anything but if he can get you 70 points and has shown he elevates his play in the playoffs, he’s more than earned this deal. He led the team in playoff points in his sophomore season on a run to the cup finals. I don’t care what any chart or graph says. Love the player.

PS - Stutzle is a f***ing stud. He might be first overall in a redraft of that year. He’s also younger and was always expected to have the higher ceiling than a guy like Suzuki. Both guys can be good, these comparison pissing matches change no one’s mind.

Suzuki at his worse while also keeping in mind how the Habs are playing, is still well worth his contract.

Again, I will take his body of work over his whole career over this stretch of 40 games where he hasn’t even been THAT bad.

And if we are heavily valuing semi-small stretches of games, I will take his semi-small sample size of post-season play over this 40 game stretch where his team has been bad.

And to your point about pissing matches, all of these young centres that have signed their 8x8ish whatever contracts aren’t all worth it when you consider Draisatl’s contract.

At the end of the day you have to retain your stars. Montreal did so with Suzuki, Ottawa did so with Stützle, and the Blues did so with Thomas.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

Typical thread on the main boards devolving into hyperboles. Some people are not worth answering.

 

[LeProspector]

Dominance from start to finish at the ASG Pitch & Puck competition last night.

Continues to show he is worth that contract.

 

[seafoam]

With the cap increasing, <8M per for a top six center (or current 1C in Suzuki's case) is great value.

 

[JRichard]

With the cap increasing, <8M per for a top six center (or current 1C in Suzuki's case) is great value.

86th in scoring behind 8 dmen. 1c on few specific teams. Paid 10 mil this year and next 2. Will be value in 5 years.

 

[ole ole]

I think both players are/have been miscast as the Habs #1 center simply because this organisation has been bereft of elite talent for almost 40 years. I REALLY like Suzuki, but in reality he would've been the 3rd line center on the last dynasty teams.

A lot of so called 1st/2nd liners would had been 3rd line center on the last Habs dynasty teams.

 

[Anardil]

Thank you for supporting my point.