Speculation: Mrazek trade to FLA?

[ShelbyZ]

The 'trade Mrazek" crowd has no argument.

There's very little upside to trading him at this point.
There's a lot of potential downside.

It's so reactionary to trade an asset while their value is at its lowest.

The smart move is to trade Howard while he has value.

Ride Mrazek for 4 weeks and then maybe you trade him or maybe you keep him.

If you keep him, you can sign him in July or let him walk - your choice. Since you've already moved Howard, it doesn't hurt you to spend $4M on Mrazek. You can sign him for a one year deal. You can sign him and trade him.

Whatever.

But you've got options. I highly doubt his value decreases between now and next year, same time.

The "keep Mrazek (at a starters price)" argument is only realistic in tank/"Fallin' for Dahlen" fantasies that we all know the RW front office probably isn't adopting anytime soon...

If the tank/Dahlin scenario is the goal, then absolutely. Get whatever you can get for Howard and grossly overpay Mrazek to either lose games or turn it around to maybe be around for the future, then eventually get a long extension and have Red Wings fans sour on him when he gets to the wrong side of 30. But we all know that's not the direction this team is going...

Clearly the organization and the rest of the league don't see much in Mrazek. He was free for Vegas to take and deal to any other team for even a tiny exchange and no one bit. Holland then put him on the market in the summer and he's still here.

Where there really is no argument is for Mrazek getting that $4.15M QO...

By the end of this season, Petr will have made $8M having delivered barely AHL worthy goaltending for most of 2 years. Rewarding that with another $4M+ is absurd. Even Mike Milbury would recognize that. Look at Mrazeks numbers and then think about what he might garner if he became a UFA in a hypothetical offseason that began tomorrow. No team would even consider him for anything close to resembling a #1 job and he'd be lucky to get an offer with an AAV higher than what can be buried in the minors with no penalty.

Just about every piece written about Mrazek's status/future notes that he is unlikely to receive that QO from either Detroit or any other team, and by the Wings refusal to give him any regular work this season, they've likely already made that decision.

While I'll agree that if the Red Wings wanted to trade Mrazek, maybe they should have given him more starts this season to showcase him or increase his value, but that obviously hasn't been the case. There's clearly other factors outside of his on ice performance that have brought about his fate.

If they can get a mid round pick for him now, they might as well take it. Worked out with Jurco, who since last years deadline has passed through waivers and has yet to dress for an NHL game this season.

We all know that while Ken Holland is at the helm (no pun intended...), there's probably zero chance he moves Howard whether his perceived value is high or low.

 

[Redder Winger]

The "keep Mrazek (at a starters price)" argument is only realistic in tank/"Fallin' for Dahlen" fantasies that we all know the RW front office probably isn't adopting anytime soon...

That's silly.
Despite Mrazek's struggles - the bottom line is that even though Mrazek has never been afforded the opportunity to get into a rhythm, he's basically just as good at getting the Red Wings wins.
He's got 9 points in 10 starts.
Howard has 34 points in 34 starts.
Mrazek has won 40 percent of his starts.
Howard has won 41 percent of his starts.

If the tank/Dahlin scenario is the goal, then absolutely. Get whatever you can get for Howard and grossly overpay Mrazek to either lose games or turn it around to maybe be around for the future, then eventually get a long extension and have Red Wings fans sour on him when he gets to the wrong side of 30. But we all know that's not the direction this team is going...

Again - since your premise is off the wall ...

Clearly the organization and the rest of the league don't see much in Mrazek. He was free for Vegas to take and deal to any other team for even a tiny exchange and no one bit. Holland then put him on the market in the summer and he's still here.

The same is true of Howard. Holland tried to deal Howard for nearly a year and couldn't find a taker.

There's a larger point here that you don't get.
Howard won't be here when this team is good again. Why not get something for him while he's raised his value?

What exactly are you clinging to? To a 33-34 year old goalie who has never accomplished anything in Detroit? Who hasn't finished a playoff series in goal in Detroit since 2013 - when he lost 3 straight games to Chicago?

 

[Redder Winger]

For the record, I agree with you, but you are too one-sided with your thinking. To say that the "trade Mrazek" crowd has no argument is immature.

People that want to trade Mrazek believe that Mrazek's value is at an all time low because they believe he is what he is. They don't want the Wings to hang on to a depreciating asset any longer then they have to because if they believe he would garner say a 3rd round pick now, they likely believe that with more bad starts he will bring in a say a 5th round pick later. Clearly in your mind Mrazek still has upside, in their minds he doesn't. Since none of us can see the future, everyone has an argument. Its not a bad argument to say that a player should be traded IF you believe that player will never get better.

IF I believed that Mrazek was just going to keep getting worse and worse, I would want to trade him now as well. Now my personal stance on the matter is that believe Mrazek is coming out of rock bottom and that he still does have an upside, because like I said, I agree with you, but I can understand the perspective of the other side.

What's the argument?
Nobody has articulated a cogent argument for keeping Howard.

He's 33. He will be 34 at the end of the season.

What good comes from keeping Howard?

He's older than Mike Green and goalies age worse than defensemen.

And nobody has made realistic case for keeping Mike Green around.

 

[ShelbyZ]

That's silly.
Despite Mrazek's struggles - the bottom line is that even though Mrazek has never been afforded the opportunity to get into a rhythm, he's basically just as good at getting the Red Wings wins.
He's got 9 points in 10 starts.
Howard has 34 points in 34 starts.
Mrazek has won 40 percent of his starts.
Howard has won 41 percent of his starts.




Again - since your premise is off the wall ...



The same is true of Howard. Holland tried to deal Howard for nearly a year and couldn't find a taker.

There's a larger point here that you don't get.
Howard won't be here when this team is good again. Why not get something for him while he's raised his value?

What exactly are you clinging to? To a 33-34 year old goalie who has never accomplished anything in Detroit? Who hasn't finished a playoff series in goal in Detroit since 2013 - when he lost 3 straight games to Chicago?

Oh cool, I can cherry pick some stats too! Hockey Reference has Howard with 61% of his starts being "qualify" this year and Mrazek only gets 30%. So does that mean those 9/20 points that came in Mrazeks starts were more from the team playing better in front of a goalie that the coaching staff has absolutely zero confidence in?

I'm not "clinging to Howard", I'm merely looking at the situation as how the front office is likely to play it out. That's the point that you don't seem to get. The team clearly does not see a future with Petr Mrazek... Look I get it, I was on board when he had that hot month or so of play almost 2 years ago. However, somewhere between then and his contract negotiations/extension, alleged attitude issues, garbage play all last year, sharp turn down Jim Carey street, etc., he's burned his bridge with this organization. I don't know how you can't get that through after he got exposed in the expansion draft and gets a start every couple weeks here, even when Howard went through a poor stretch in November and December.

The Howard vs. Mrazek being shopped thing is apples to oranges at this point. When Holland tried to deal Howard, Jimmy was struggling (in hindsight, not nearly as bad as Mrazek has been for the last 2 years...) and still had a good bit of term left at a decent price that likely drove teams away. Mrazek last summer was vastly overpaid coming off a garbage season (and awful WC appearance) with an unrealistic QO looming in only 1 year. And when's the last time we heard anything about Howard actually being shopped, the 2016 offseason?

"The same is true" of Howard's value? I thought you just said it was as high as it can get?

As far as value, who's to say that Howards doesn't go up when his actual salary drops next season and he no longer has the luxury of listing only 10 teams he'd be willing to go to?

And I certainly agree that Howard isn't the future of this team. I don't think anyone saying they should trade or not qualify Mrazek is "clinging to Howard". Choosing to cut ties with Mrazek isn't tying "when they're good again" to Howard in the slightest.

I would bet dollars to donuts that if they did retain Mrazek, "when they're good again" you'll be making threads about how they can get rid of old and injury prone Mrazeks bad contract because Petruzzelli is definitely ready for the #1 job after his first full season.

And as far as "value" goes, If Mrazek is making $4.15M next season, I hope Connor Hellebuyck's agent doesn't cave until the Jets offer eclipses $9M/year.

 

[Redder Winger]

Oh cool, I can cherry pick some stats too! Hockey Reference has Howard with 61% of his starts being "qualify" this year and Mrazek only gets 30%. So does that mean those 9/20 points that came in Mrazeks starts were more from the team playing better in front of a goalie that the coaching staff has absolutely zero confidence in?

What cherry picking?
YOU SAID the wings would only use Mrazek as a starter if it was their goal to tank.

Well tanking involves not winning games and not getting points.

Mrazek's point percentage is .900 compared to 1.000 for Howard.
Mrazek's winning percentage is 40 percent compared to 41 percent for Howard.

Those are your standards. Live with them.
Quality starts don't always equal wins.

Wins equal wins.

I'm not "clinging to Howard", I'm merely looking at the situation as how the front office is likely to play it out.

I don't think the organization will trade Howard either.
Because this organization is managed by fools. The same fools who gave Abdelkader a 7 year contract. The same fools who gave Nielsen a 6 year contract at age 32 when he's never been more than a 2-3 center.
The same fools who gave Helm a 5 year deal.
The same fools who have the highest payroll in the league for the oldest roster in the league - even though the roster sucks.

So trying to imagine what this front office will do is kind of pointless.
I'm imagining what they should do.

That's the point that you don't seem to get. The team clearly does not see a future with Petr Mrazek... Look I get it, I was on board when he had that hot month or so of play almost 2 years ago. However, somewhere between then and his contract negotiations/extension, alleged attitude issues, garbage play all last year, sharp turn down Jim Carey street, etc., he's burned his bridge with this organization. I don't know how you can't get that through after he got exposed in the expansion draft and gets a start every couple weeks here, even when Howard went through a poor stretch in November and December.

I don't give a f*** that the GM made the wrong choice and the coach continues to make the wrong choice.

I care about maximizing assets for the rebuild.
If we trade Howard today we can get an asset.

Then we still have the ability to improve Mrazek and get a better asset, or keep him, or if he stays where he is, we can get a depth pick, perhaps.

The Howard vs. Mrazek being shopped thing is apples to oranges at this point. When Holland tried to deal Howard, Jimmy was struggling (in hindsight, not nearly as bad as Mrazek has been for the last 2 years...) and still had a good bit of term left at a decent price that likely drove teams away. Mrazek last summer was vastly overpaid coming off a garbage season (and awful WC appearance) with an unrealistic QO looming in only 1 year. And when's the last time we heard anything about Howard actually being shopped, the 2016 offseason?

Right.
So you admit that a goalie who nobody wanted now has trade value.

And you think it's a bad move to trade him.

Now you want to trade the goalie with virtually zero trade value.

Negotiators who get cold feet and trade assets when they are at their worst.... and then get cold feet and horde assets when they have value ... are the kind of people who other people get rich off of.

I would bet dollars to donuts that if they did retain Mrazek, "when they're good again" you'll be making threads about how they can get rid of old and injury prone Mrazeks bad contract because Petruzzelli is definitely ready for the #1 job after his first full season.

Another "fact-based" opinion.

And as far as "value" goes, If M razek is making $4.15M next season, I hope Connor Hellebuyck's agent doesn't cave until the Jets offer eclipses $9M/year.

I don't care what Hellebucyk and his agent do.

 

[ShelbyZ]

So trying to imagine what this front office will do is kind of pointless.
I'm imagining what they should do.

K.

But it's still probably 90% Mrazek doesn't get that QO...

 

[Redder Winger]

K.

But it's still probably 90% Mrazek doesn't get that QO...

I don't know.
If you did trade Howard, why wouldn't you QO him to retain his rights?

 

[Ezekial]

IF we trade Howard, which seems extremely unlikely.. at least to me.

 

[kliq]

What's the argument?
Nobody has articulated a cogent argument for keeping Howard.

He's 33. He will be 34 at the end of the season.

What good comes from keeping Howard?

He's older than Mike Green and goalies age worse than defensemen.

And nobody has made realistic case for keeping Mike Green around.

Read what I wrote again in bold, I already put forth the argument as to why certain people want to trade Mrazek. I did not even bring up Howard as my comment was purely in response to you saying that the "trade Mrazek crowd have no argument".

They do have an argument. You and I may not agree with it, but its still a valid argument IF they feel Mrazek is going to keep getting worse and worse. There is no need to talk down to people just because they have a view or an opinion that opposes yours.

For the record, I agree with you, but you are too one-sided with your thinking. To say that the "trade Mrazek" crowd has no argument is immature.

People that want to trade Mrazek believe that Mrazek's value is at an all time low because they believe he is what he is. They don't want the Wings to hang on to a depreciating asset any longer then they have to because if they believe he would garner say a 3rd round pick now, they likely believe that with more bad starts he will bring in a say a 5th round pick later. Clearly in your mind Mrazek still has upside, in their minds he doesn't. Since none of us can see the future, everyone has an argument. Its not a bad argument to say that a player should be traded IF you believe that player will never get better.

IF I believed that Mrazek was just going to keep getting worse and worse, I would want to trade him now as well. Now my personal stance on the matter is that believe Mrazek is coming out of rock bottom and that he still does have an upside, because like I said, I agree with you, but I can understand the perspective of the other side.

 

[Frk It]

I don't know.
If you did trade Howard, why wouldn't you QO him to retain his rights?

Level of play does not match cap hit.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I don't know.
If you did trade Howard, why wouldn't you QO him to retain his rights?

QO is arguably 4 TIMES Mrazeks value on the open market.

If they hypothetically traded Howard AND didn't qualify Mrazek, they could probably use that $4.15M (and what they would pay to get a decent back up to cover if Mrazek heads back to 16/17 form) to sign two UFA goalies that would be an upgrade over Mrazek at this point. They could toss $1.5-2M each short term to a couple of #1B/2 options on the UFA market and let them battle over a #1 job, instead of throwing $4.15M to one guy who hasn't looked like he belongs in the NHL for over two years. They'd at least save some cap space and/or have some flexibility to add better pieces to the rest of their line up when the opportunity arises.

Even if they traded Howard and thought Mrazek still had some upside, they'd still be better off shooting him a "take it or leave it" offer for 1-yr at $1.2M to try to earn the starters job back before they consider "rewarding" him with more starter money that he hasn't showed he's worth... Hell, that $1.2M is probably generous at this point...

That's what Philly did with Mason after they traded for him since he wasn't worth his QO offer either. He was due something like $3.2M that offseason to be retained. Flyers gave him 1-yr at $1.5M to show he'd be an upgrade over eventual compliance buyout Bryzgalov, and then they'd talk future the next year. The only difference was that Mason was a year younger, so he was due another shot as an RFA when that 1yr expired. Not the case with Mrazek, who can hit the UFA market starting summer 2019.

If Sheahan was still here and finished this year with another 2G season, would he be deserving of his $2.075M QO due at the end of this season too?

 

[Winger98]

Holland hates a lot of turnover.
Holland hates losing an asset, any asset, for nothing.

They might not like Mrazek right now, they might want to trade him, but if it doesn't keep them from making other moves to repaid the roster, I still don't think we should be surprised if they give him the qualifying offer. It might not be the right move,it might not be the smart move, it might not be a lot of things. But it is Holland hoarding his assets as much as possible. It's what he does if he can.

Unless Mrazek has seriously burned bridges behind the scenes, I doubt Holland knows for sure what he wants to do with Mrazek yet.

 

[mikerooooose]

I want nothing to do with Reimer. I laughed at the Reimer/Bernier situation the Leaf's had a few year ago.

 

[Redder Winger]

Level of play does not match cap hit.

Sure.
But you need a goalie. It might be him. Or you could sign him and still trade him.

If you think you can get something for him today, then you should be fairly certain that if you signed him for a year that you could get something for him next year, or during the offseason.

Potentially a lot more.

 

[Redder Winger]

Holland hates a lot of turnover.
Holland hates losing an asset, any asset, for nothing.

They might not like Mrazek right now, they might want to trade him, but if it doesn't keep them from making other moves to repaid the roster, I still don't think we should be surprised if they give him the qualifying offer. It might not be the right move,it might not be the smart move, it might not be a lot of things. But it is Holland hoarding his assets as much as possible. It's what he does if he can.

Unless Mrazek has seriously burned bridges behind the scenes, I doubt Holland knows for sure what he wants to do with Mrazek yet.

If they don't trade Howard and don't trade Mrazek they're almost surely going to be forced to let Mrazek walk for nothing.
So I think we lose at least one goalie between now and July 1.

 

[Redder Winger]

QO is arguably 4 TIMES Mrazeks value on the open market.

If they hypothetically traded Howard AND didn't qualify Mrazek, they could probably use that $4.15M (and what they would pay to get a decent back up to cover if Mrazek heads back to 16/17 form) to sign two UFA goalies that would be an upgrade over Mrazek at this point. They could toss $1.5-2M each short term to a couple of #1B/2 options on the UFA market and let them battle over a #1 job, instead of throwing $4.15M to one guy who hasn't looked like he belongs in the NHL for over two years. They'd at least save some cap space and/or have some flexibility to add better pieces to the rest of their line up when the opportunity arises.

Even if they traded Howard and thought Mrazek still had some upside, they'd still be better off shooting him a "take it or leave it" offer for 1-yr at $1.2M to try to earn the starters job back before they consider "rewarding" him with more starter money that he hasn't showed he's worth... Hell, that $1.2M is probably generous at this point...

That's what Philly did with Mason after they traded for him since he wasn't worth his QO offer either. He was due something like $3.2M that offseason to be retained. Flyers gave him 1-yr at $1.5M to show he'd be an upgrade over eventual compliance buyout Bryzgalov, and then they'd talk future the next year. The only difference was that Mason was a year younger, so he was due another shot as an RFA when that 1yr expired. Not the case with Mrazek, who can hit the UFA market starting summer 2019.

If Sheahan was still here and finished this year with another 2G season, would he be deserving of his $2.075M QO due at the end of this season too?

Interesting that you bring up Sheahan.
With what he's doing in Pittsburgh, he's definitely worth the $2.075M.

He's basically in the same role. 3rd liner. PK.
But all of the sudden he's valuable again.

He got the f*** away from Blashill's team---and boom -- he's the Riley Sheahan many of us envisioned.
Nothing special offensively -- in pace for 8 goals and 30 points playing a defensive role... and winning 56 percent of his faceoffs.

That's worth $2.2M to me.
Especially in short, manageable contracts.

I wouldn't mind seeing Detroit trade Mrazek to Chicago -- maybe for Connor Murphy.

And then seeing what happens with Mrazek.

 

[Mlotek]

Only scenario I see Mrazek leaving at deadline is Wings retaining 50% salary and potentially salary coming back in return.

Only reason anyone would trade from at deadline is for playoff goalie depth. No team will qualify Mrazek at 4 million when they know he can be had close to 1 as a UFA in July.

 

[Mister Ed]

If you keep him, you can sign him in July or let him walk - your choice. Since you've already moved Howard, it doesn't hurt you to spend $4M on Mrazek. You can sign him for a one year deal. You can sign him and trade him.

Spending 4M on a goalie you can't rely on is a problem, even if Howard is traded.

 

[Dotter]

That's silly.
Despite Mrazek's struggles - the bottom line is that even though Mrazek has never been afforded the opportunity to get into a rhythm, he's basically just as good at getting the Red Wings wins.
He's got 9 points in 10 starts.
Howard has 34 points in 34 starts.
Mrazek has won 40 percent of his starts.
Howard has won 41 percent of his starts.

I have no dog in this fight, but man you sure do like to cherry pick stats. My god.

 

[Redder Winger]

I have no dog in this fight, but man you sure do like to cherry pick stats. My god.

This is the most relevant stat.

He said the only way Detroit uses Mrazek is if they decide they're going to tank.

Well, at the end of the day, Mrazek wins or collects points at the same rate as Howard.

So the idea that Mrazek would "Tank" the organization isn't based in fact.

 

[Redder Winger]

Spending 4M on a goalie you can't rely on is a problem, even if Howard is traded.

Not for a year.
Not when there's a chance he develops into a reliable goalie. Not when there's a chance he can be a more valuable chip in a trade.
Not when you have the cap space.

 

[kliq]

This is the most relevant stat.

He said the only way Detroit uses Mrazek is if they decide they're going to tank.

Well, at the end of the day, Mrazek wins or collects points at the same rate as Howard.

So the idea that Mrazek would "Tank" the organization isn't based in fact.

If you truly want to assess this, you need to look at a large sample size and a comparable amount of starts otherwise the stats are garbage.

 

[Redder Winger]

If you truly want to assess this, you need to look at a large sample size and a comparable amount of starts otherwise the stats are garbage.

We have what we have.
Howard lost another one tonight.

We must be in tank mode right?
That brings Howie's numbers down below Mrazek's I think.

Since Nov. 19 - even worse.
28.5 percent win rate.
40.5 percent point rate.

Tell me more about putting Mrazek in net is a sign that the Red Wings are in tank mode.

 

[kliq]

We have what we have.
Howard lost another one tonight.

We must be in tank mode right?
That brings Howie's numbers down below Mrazek's I think.

Since Nov. 19 - even worse.
28.5 percent win rate.
40.5 percent point rate.

Tell me more about putting Mrazek in net is a sign that the Red Wings are in tank mode.

To tell you "more" about something, wouldn't I have had to tell you a first time? Interesting, because I don't recall saying anything even close to that, but if you want to make things up to make a point, go ahead. No more or less reliable then the cherry picked small sample sizes you normally use to make a point.

 

[Henkka]

Mrazek is a good goalie, if we want to tank more seasons.