I don't think Jimmy Howard has trade value at this season. But he could have it at next, because it's his last year. Multi-year-deals are pretty much untradeable, especially in case like this.. At next season the situation is totally different.
I think the best bet is to extend Mrazek for 4 years, with cheaper caphit than his qualifying offer. Like 3M.
4 seasons could give enough time wait for our next goaltending core to develop.
Keep Howard as a backup, play him against easier opponents to get shiny looking stats, and then sell him at the 2019 deadline with max 50% retention.
This is funny situation, my opinion changes every how to do it. But switch the value somehow to future.
I think you’re on the right track here talking about an extension, I’m just not sure either side would be looking at four years. Mrazek can be a non-qualified FA this summer or a UFA next summer. In either scenario he is in position to decide where he wants to play -- whether it's a choice between two bad offers, five good offers, or Europe -- which is what a lot of those promoting the idea of a QO don’t fully appreciate. Mrazek, if he's playing well, is inevitably going to control the situation. Let's assume he gets qualified and has a good start to next season. In order to keep Mrazek the Wings would have to make him a multi-year extension offer prior to the 2019 TDL (based on about 40 games) that is good enough to discourage him from becoming a FA, or offer him the best deal in free agency that summer. For a goaltender that won’t be needed for a long playoff run, perhaps not even a single playoff game, for a good chunk if not the entirety of his contract. This is pretty high on the scale of bad ideas for a rebuilding team that could use all the Cap space it can get.
The way Mrazek is playing he is likely to have more trade value now than he would next year as an expensive pending UFA. There is some added value in the fact an acquiring team will have a window to offer him an extension prior to the QO deadline. This is what happened with Mason at the 2013 Deadline. Thanks to Mason's agent being given permission to talk to other teams, Philadelphia knew they could extend him at a significant discount ($1.5M, signed a week after the TDL trade) to his QO ($3.2M) and considered him a potential long-term solution, so they gave up a third-round pick and a backup goaltender. A year from now, even if Mrazek is playing well his trade value will depend on circumstances beyond anyone’s control. As Tampa Bay found out last year, if no one is in dire need of a good but expensive pending FA goaltender, there is no trade market.
It’s possible that Mrazek’s recent heavy usage is connected to either contract extension talks or trade interest. Last year, Brendan Smith got more ice time in his final seven games before the TDL (21-plus minutes per game) than any seven-game stretch in his Red Wings career; four games of those seven he had 30-plus shifts after getting just one 30-shift game the entire season to that point. There were contract extension talks prior to him being traded, with his trade value perhaps connected to the Rangers scouting him heavily at that time and wanting to see him given plenty of ice time given the role they projected for him.
What’s a good extension offer? I think more along the lines of two years (last RFA season, first UFA season) at $2.5M. The problem facing Mrazek is that his current hot streak will probably end, as they all do, and the Wings could play worse as standings reality sets in and Green and perhaps a few other players are traded. He could end the season in Pavelec territory statistically and this summer be looking at a $1.25-2M one-year offer as a backup. With Mrazek under contract for two years the Wings can move Howard as soon as his NTC expires, or even a week earlier at the Draft when he would probably waive the clause. Mrazek playing well at $2.5M and locked up through 2019-20 season becomes an attractive trade asset, and gives everyone (including perhaps a new GM) two more years to see if it's worth Mrazek staying beyond that.
But right now this team doesn’t need to commit more long-term money, or any long-term money, to a goaltender. They don’t need it for competitive reasons and there are plenty of cheap alternatives every year that can contribute to higher lottery picks.