Value of: Monahan

[John Mandalorian]

Barron is a former 1st and the Habs also got a 2nd. That is far more valuable than the #32 pick in the 1st round. Not even close. Plus Lehks is a winger which has less value than a C.

You missed my edit. As I mentioned, the Avs had the choice of giving up the 23 1st or Barron. The Avs chose the 23 1st.

Given that the 23 1st is less of a certainty and potentially requires a longer timeline in providing contribution to the Avs, one could certainly draw the inference that Barron might have been de-valued since being drafted in the eyes of the Avs mgt. Just because Barron was a late 1st, that doesn't mean the Avs were still valuing him that way.

So is it as simple as looking at where Barron was drafted? Maybe or maybe not.

FYI, in the NFL, there's a TVM aspect to picks in future years. Typically, a 2024 1st would be worth a 2023 2nd. I realize hockey doesn't typically consider TVM aspects as much. But that doesn't mean it's entirely irrelevant.

 

[Treb]

Like I said earlier, there is a limited number of buyers. On top of that a limited amount of teams looking for an upgrade at center. There isn't going to be 10 1st round picks traded at the deadline this year. So if ROR, Horvat and Toews are made available Monahan is 4th in line at best. That doesn't sound like a recipe for getting a 1st round pick to me. Especially for a player who is going to be a secondary piece on a contender and has never been a good/great defensive player.

All those players except Horvat are more expensive salary wise and contending teams are starved for cap space as it is.

At 50%
Toews 5.25M
ROR 3.5M
Monahan 3.1875M
Horvat 2.25M

Horvat should get a king haul especially at 50%.
ROR should get a pretty good haul at 50%.
Toews at 50% retained is almost as expensice cap wise as Monahan an he is not that much better if at all this year.

I'd say he is likely the 3rd most sought after due to be easier than Toews to fit and thus less likely to require a cap dump. That is also assuming ROR will actually be shopped which is not yet a given AFAIK. In fact, the only one I'm 99% sure will be aggresively shopped right now on TDL are Toews and Monahan (the other two depends on how the placements go).

If all are traded, I expect at least 3 of them to get a 1st.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You missed my edit. As I mentioned, the Avs had the choice of giving up the 23 1st or Barron. The Avs chose the 23 1st.

Given that the 23 1st is less of a certainty and potentially requires a longer timeline in providing contribution to the Avs, one could certainly draw the inference that Barron might have been de-valued since being drafted in the eyes of the Avs mgt. Just because Barron was a late 1st, that doesn't mean the Avs were still valuing him that way.

So is it as simple as looking at where Barron was drafted? Maybe or maybe not.

Or, one might consider that the Habs were given the choice of the Avs 1st or Barron and took the prospect RHD which they had a huge need for. Habs are still high on Barron.

 

[Treb]

You missed my edit. As I mentioned, the Avs had the choice of giving up the 23 1st or Barron. The Avs chose the 23 1st.

Given that the 23 1st is less of a certainty and potentially requires a longer timeline in providing contribution to the Avs, one could certainly draw the inference that Barron might have been de-valued since being drafted in the eyes of the Avs mgt. Just because Barron was a late 1st, that doesn't mean the Avs were still valuing him that way.

So is it as simple as looking at where Barron was drafted? Maybe or maybe not.

Do you have any sources confirming it was the Avs choice or if that choice was offered at all?

Maybe the Habs preferred Barron to a 2023 1st?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Do you have any sources confirming it was the Avs choice or if that choice was offered at all?

Maybe the Habs preferred Barron to a 2023 1st?

Its obvious the Habs preferred Barron to a 2023 1st. Habs had no high-end RHD prospects other than the maligned Mailloux and none near NHL ready like Barron.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Do you have any sources confirming it was the Avs choice or if that choice was offered at all?

Maybe the Habs preferred Barron to a 2023 1st?

Gosh. It came out almost a year ago. It's common knowledge in the Avs forum. It takes some digging.

 

[Treb]

Its obvious the Habs preferred Barron to a 2023 1st. Habs had no high-end RHD prospects other than the maligned Mailloux and none near NHL ready like Barron.

Gosh. It came out almost a year ago. It's common knowledge in the Avs forum. It takes some digging.

That's why I asked which team actually made the choice. Habs or Avs?

Anyway, Barron+2nd is at least the equivalent of a 1st which was the initial point.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

That's why I asked which team actually made the choice. Habs or Avs?

Anyway, Barron+2nd is at least the equivalent of a 1st which was the initial point.

Hughes address the media immediately after the trade and mentioned the below:

It’s important for us to add a righty. We have certain needs, and there was one here with this position.

Kent Hughes (translated from French)

Habs easily wanted Barron over a late 1st in the 30's.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

All those players except Horvat are more expensive salary wise and contending teams are starved for cap space as it is.

At 50%
Toews 5.25M
ROR 3.5M
Monahan 3.1875M
Horvat 2.25M

Horvat should get a king haul especially at 50%.
ROR should get a pretty good haul at 50%.
Toews at 50% retained is almost as expensice cap wise as Monahan an he is not that much better if at all this year.

I'd say he is likely the 3rd most sought after due to be easier than Toews to fit and thus less likely to require a cap dump. That is also assuming ROR will actually be shopped which is not yet a given AFAIK. In fact, the only one I'm 99% sure will be aggresively shopped right now on TDL are Toews and Monahan (the other two depends on how the placements go).

If all are traded, I expect at least 3 of them to get a 1st.

Cap space at the deadline is significantly easier to create. Plus it would only cost a team a 4th round pick or later to get another 50% retention on Toews.


Toews is easily the more attractive piece. It's embarrassing you think otherwise.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Cap space at the deadline is significantly easier to create. Plus it would only cost a team a 4th round pick or later to get another 50% retention on Toews.


Toews is easily the more attractive piece. It's embarrassing you think otherwise.

Do you have a comparable where a 3rd party team retained millions for only a 4th round pick at TDL?

 

[Treb]

Cap space at the deadline is significantly easier to create. Plus it would only cost a team a 4th round pick or later to get another 50% retention on Toews.


Toews is easily the more attractive piece. It's embarrassing you think otherwise.

From what I gathered from Chicago fans, he's a 3C right now. Maybe they are wrong, I haven't watched him much this year.

However, you are arguing that he is more than 1.65 times more attractive? 5.25M even at TDL is a lot of money.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Do you have a comparable where a 3rd party team retained millions for only a 4th round pick at TDL?

It isn't millions. It's $190k

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It isn't millions. It's $190k

Do you have a precedent / comparable where a 3rd party team retained to help another team for only a 4th?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

From what I gathered from Chicago fans, he's a 3C right now. Maybe they are wrong, I haven't watched him much this year.

However, you are arguing that he is more than 1.65 times more attractive?

Easily.

As an Avs fan who's team is one of the only actual cup contenders with a significant need for a 2C, I would pay a 1st for Toews long before I'd even pay a 2nd for Monahan.

When you factor in playoff success and experience between the two, Toews is a couple tiers ahead. For sure.

Do you have a precedent / comparable where a 3rd party team retained to help another team for only a 4th?

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire David Savard

Official now, the Tampa Bay Lightning have nabbed one of the best rentals on the market. The team has acquired …

www.prohockeyrumors.com

Like I said. Pretty straightforward precedent.




Another example.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Like I said. Pretty straightforward precedent.

Redirect Notice

Another example.

Thank you.

 

[Treb]

Easily.

As an Avs fan who's team is one of the only actual cup contenders with a significant need for a 2C, I would pay a 1st for Toews long before I'd even pay a 2nd for Monahan.

When you factor in playoff success and experience between the two, Toews is a couple tiers ahead. For sure.

Toews from those cup years (and even up to 2020)? 100% agree

Toews from 2020 and on? A lot less sure.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Toews from those cup years (and even up to 2020)? 100% agree

Toews from 2020 and on? A lot less sure.

...I didn't say Toews from those years. Toews from 2020 onward is still a better player then Monahan and he still has that experience from the cup years. Something Monahan simply does not.

 

[FF de Mars]

The Habs aren't the same team without Monohan. Sure you can go with other options, but I wouldn't sleep on Sean either if I were a contender. Without Monohan the Habs don't have a second line, I think it proves how effective he still is.

 

[Treb]

...I didn't say Toews from those years. Toews from 2020 onward is still a better player then Monahan and he still has that experience from the cup years. Something Monahan simply does not.

Experience is nice, but if the body can't follow, it doesn't mean much.

Again, we are talking about 1.65 times the cap hit. Even if cap is easier at TDL, teams will most likely need to send salary back in a Toews move which might not be the case with Monahan/ROR/Horvat.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Experience is nice, but if the body can't follow, it doesn't mean much.

Again, we are talking about 1.65 times the cap hit. Even if cap is easier at TDL, teams will most likely need to send salary back in a Toews move which might not be the case with Monahan/ROR/Horvat.

Toews at 50% is $5.25M. Another 50% off with a 3rd team retaining would bring him all the way down to $2.625M and as we already established, it wouldn't cost very much to get a 3rd team to retain what is effectively about $190k by the trade deadline in real money. That's about a 4th round pick in value.

So essentially, you're talking about ~$1.8M in space needed to add Toews. Every team in the league can come up with that space at the trade deadline very, very easily. Whether its through accumulated cap space from being below the cap all year(Remember just $600k in space at the start of the season is over $1.8M in space at the trade deadline) or by taking advantage of LTIR at the trade deadline.

The only difference you could be talking about here, is the 4th round pick you have to pay a team like Anaheim or Arizona or Montreal or whoever, to be a 3rd party broker on Toews at 75% retained.

And again... If the price to get Toews is essentially a 1st + 4th... versus a 1st for Monahan. Its not even close. Toews every time.

Not to mention Hawks fans aren't even necessarily expecting a 1st round pick for Toews. They seems to have a far more reasonable understanding of what very low end 2Cs or more realistically 3Cs are actually worth. Which is what both Toews and Monahan are.


Quite frankly, neither guy has done enough to suggest they're worth 1st round picks yet. Low end 2C rentals aren't the sort of players to fetch 1st rounders. But Toews cup winning pedigree may be enough to just push him into that 1st round pick territory of value.


On average only ~3 1st round picks per year are traded for UFA rentals. I dont think Monahan or Toews will be one of those 3 players this year. But Toews will be one before Monahan.

 

[crowi]

I think if he's healthy the value is a 2nd and a prospect and honestly considering you got a 1st with him for free I think a 2nd and a prospect would be a GREAT deal.

Also I don't think any mocked Habs fans for the expected return on Toffoli

They didn't get him for free, Habs are absorbing $6.375M cap hit and his salary. That kind of dump, even if the dump is in question, is worth a lot in today's market.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

You're asking the acquiring team to pay for Calgary's mistake when Montreal has already been compensated for that.

What a foolish take. We’re asking for the acquiring team to pay the price for a top 6 acquisition at the deadline. Just because the flames had to unload Monahan in the summer with a 1st round pick and the Habs were the only ones rdy to do it. Does not change his value.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

They didn't get him for free, Habs are absorbing $6.375M cap hit and his salary. That kind of dump, even if the dump is in question, is worth a lot in today's market.

Yes they did that's what future considerations is.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Toews at 50% is $5.25M. Another 50% off with a 3rd team retaining would bring him all the way down to $2.625M and as we already established, it wouldn't cost very much to get a 3rd team to retain what is effectively about $190k by the trade deadline in real money. That's about a 4th round pick in value.

So essentially, you're talking about ~$1.8M in space needed to add Toews. Every team in the league can come up with that space at the trade deadline very, very easily. Whether its through accumulated cap space from being below the cap all year(Remember just $600k in space at the start of the season is over $1.8M in space at the trade deadline) or by taking advantage of LTIR at the trade deadline.

The only difference you could be talking about here, is the 4th round pick you have to pay a team like Anaheim or Arizona or Montreal or whoever, to be a 3rd party broker on Toews at 75% retained.

And again... If the price to get Toews is essentially a 1st + 4th... versus a 1st for Monahan. Its not even close. Toews every time.

Not to mention Hawks fans aren't even necessarily expecting a 1st round pick for Toews. They seems to have a far more reasonable understanding of what very low end 2Cs or more realistically 3Cs are actually worth. Which is what both Toews and Monahan are.


Quite frankly, neither guy has done enough to suggest they're worth 1st round picks yet. Low end 2C rentals aren't the sort of players to fetch 1st rounders. But Toews cup winning pedigree may be enough to just push him into that 1st round pick territory of value.


On average only ~3 1st round picks per year are traded for UFA rentals. I dont think Monahan or Toews will be one of those 3 players this year. But Toews will be one before Monahan.

I think Towes does get it because he's Jonathan Towes, I think his name carries A LOT of value because he's got those rings and there are a lot of guys with rings but he's the captain he's THE guy.

Now does he deserve a 1st? no probably not but he's Jonathan Towes so he will get it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Well he's out 2-3 weeks that probably kills any thought of a 1st round pick