OT: MLB Thread XVI: It's football season!

[darko]

Kyle Hendricks?
Jake Arieta?
Jon Lester?
Tanner Roark?
Johnny Cueto?

I don't see much of a case for THor unfortunately.

No way. It's between Thor or Fernandez as it stands now. Mad Bum and Cueto are in conversation but are clearly behind the other 2.

 

[darko]

I want to say Fernandez but totally fine if Thor wins it.

 

[sbjnyc]

No way. It's between Thor or Fernandez as it stands now. Mad Bum and Cueto are in conversation but are clearly behind the other 2.

On what basis? Like it or not, wins matter in the cy young voting.

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

The Mets have a huge series upcoming with St. Louis. In order to step up right now we need that moment like last year against Washington when we swept them. It'll be hard with Neise and Lugo but it can happen. Then Philly and Miami up next. MAYBE it can happen but we need to take most of those games to make it interesting

 

[NYRFAN218]

Anything less than 2 of 3 and you can just end the season to me. I honestly don't care how easy their schedule is when you look at how they've played against lesser teams in the past month.

 

[nyr2k2]

On what basis? Like it or not, wins matter in the cy young voting.

It matters less each year. When King Felix won it years back after winning only 10 games or whatever it signaled that the voters are willing to look past low win totals for guys on crappy teams.

 

[JT Kreider]

Can't believe Matz is now on the DL.

Not even fair how injured this team has been.

 

[sbjnyc]

This is ESPN's CY predictor (I removed relievers)

1 Jake Arrieta 15-5 2.75
2 Jon Lester 14-4 2.81
3 Johnny Cueto 14-3 2.90
4 Clayton Kershaw11-2 1.79
5 Max Scherzer 13-7 3.05

Thor is 11-7 2.61 ERA currently.

BTW Familia is #10 on their list and Thor isn't on it.

I also found a predictor on http://www.baseballmusings.com which uses 2 different formulas:

Instead of just posting the list I just linked to the article. Syndergaard isn't top 5 on either list.

Interesting how there are some significant differences between the 3 sources. Either way I don't see Syndergaard having a chance without a dominant September.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He has the best FIP, K/BB and Fangraphs WAR of any pitcher in the major leagues.

I think he has a chance, but I have a feeling some voters will care more about ERA, Wins, WHIP, K's where some others have an advantage.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

I think with the Mets limping towards a possible playoff-less season, Arrieta or Kershaw gets it.

 

[sbjnyc]

He has the best FIP, K/BB and Fangraphs WAR of any pitcher in the major leagues.

I think he has a chance, but I have a feeling some voters will care more about ERA, Wins, WHIP, K's where some others have an advantage.

THe fact that you had to specify which version of WAR is very telling. Here is WAR for NL pitchers from baseball-reference.com.

1. Kershaw (LAD) 4.8
2. Bumgarner (SFG) 4.6
3. Scherzer (WSN) 4.6
4. Roark (WSN) 4.2
5. Syndergaard (NYM) 4.0
6. Teheran (ATL) 4.0
Cueto (SFG) 4.0
8. deGrom (NYM) 3.8
9. Martinez (STL) 3.6
10. Hendricks (CHC) 3.5

Everyone will have their own opinions, whether its us, individual front offices and BWA members. Some might look at fangraphs some might look at baseball-reference, some might use some proprietary models and some may use their gut. What does "best pitcher" even mean?

IMO, Thor is just not at the top of the board in most of the basic stats like wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. FIP, K/BB, etc are pretty meaningless stats. Would you rather have a higher K/BB or a lower WHIP? What about run support? Teheran has a 2.90 ERA but has a 3-9 record because his run support is over 1 run less than Syndergaards. Can you imagine if he was on the Nats or the dodgers?

Judging pitchers is hard but IMO you need to base your assessments on outcomes because ultimately outcomes are what matter if you want to be regarded as the best pitcher.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

THe fact that you had to specify which version of WAR is very telling. Here is WAR for NL pitchers from baseball-reference.com.

1. Kershaw (LAD) 4.8
2. Bumgarner (SFG) 4.6
3. Scherzer (WSN) 4.6
4. Roark (WSN) 4.2
5. Syndergaard (NYM) 4.0
6. Teheran (ATL) 4.0
Cueto (SFG) 4.0
8. deGrom (NYM) 3.8
9. Martinez (STL) 3.6
10. Hendricks (CHC) 3.5

Everyone will have their own opinions, whether its us, individual front offices and BWA members. Some might look at fangraphs some might look at baseball-reference, some might use some proprietary models and some may use their gut. What does "best pitcher" even mean?

IMO, Thor is just not at the top of the board in most of the basic stats like wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. FIP, K/BB, etc are pretty meaningless stats. Would you rather have a higher K/BB or a lower WHIP? What about run support? Teheran has a 2.90 ERA but has a 3-9 record because his run support is over 1 run less than Syndergaards. Can you imagine if he was on the Nats or the dodgers?

Judging pitchers is hard but IMO you need to base your assessments on outcomes because ultimately outcomes are what matter if you want to be regarded as the best pitcher.

He's right there with all the other pitchers. No one is clearly the best in every single category. It'll depend on his September, the September of other pitchers in the league, and what people decide are the most important stats, but he has a chance to win the Cy Young with about a month left in the season.

 

[BMOK33]

This is ESPN's CY predictor (I removed relievers)

1 Jake Arrieta 15-5 2.75
2 Jon Lester 14-4 2.81
3 Johnny Cueto 14-3 2.90
4 Clayton Kershaw11-2 1.79
5 Max Scherzer 13-7 3.05

Thor is 11-7 2.61 ERA currently.

BTW Familia is #10 on their list and Thor isn't on it.

I also found a predictor on http://www.baseballmusings.com which uses 2 different formulas:

Instead of just posting the list I just linked to the article. Syndergaard isn't top 5 on either list.

Interesting how there are some significant differences between the 3 sources. Either way I don't see Syndergaard having a chance without a dominant September.

Arrieta is out because his Ks are too low. Lester for same reason. Kershaw missed too much time and Scherzer ERA too high. I'm guessing its between Syndergaard/Fernandez/Bumgarner. Win/Loss is not much of a killer, but Ks are. Occasionally there is a season like 2005 in the AL where nobody struck out a large number of guys, but if 2 or 3 guys do and post sub 3 ERAs it usually eliminates everyone else.

 

[sbjnyc]

Arrieta is out because his Ks are too low. Lester for same reason. Kershaw missed too much time and Scherzer ERA too high. I'm guessing its between Syndergaard/Fernandez/Bumgarner. Win/Loss is not much of a killer, but Ks are. Occasionally there is a season like 2005 in the AL where nobody struck out a large number of guys, but if 2 or 3 guys do and post sub 3 ERAs it usually eliminates everyone else.

He's striking out batters at about the same rate as last year when he won the award.

 

[surf]

Ive seen enough of Jon Neise to last a lifetime

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

Anyone else catch that picture of young Gary with the Noah mane?!?!?

 

[BMOK33]

He's striking out batters at about the same rate as last year when he won the award.

His competition was less stiff last year and he also was pitching out of his mind with like 16 wins in a row and an ERA that was about 1 full run lower

 

[Inferno]

since the TDL Hicks has been playign much better.

 

[sbjnyc]

His competition was less stiff last year and he also was pitching out of his mind with like 16 wins in a row and an ERA that was about 1 full run lower

Over the course of a season you pitch against the same competition as everyone else. Not sure why 16 wins in a row is a negative.

 

[Krams]

Anyone else catch that picture of young Gary with the Noah mane?!?!?

 

[surf]

Wow Cespedes says he wont opt out will honor the 3 year deal..Fantastic news

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm getting so tired of Cabrera and Loney. We have our best two hitting prospects sitting in AA and ready to be promoted. If the team is really going for it, why do they accept two non-starter level players playing 1B and SS? Promote Rosario and Smith. As much as I've criticized Reyes, even he has been much better than those two.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

Sanchez...

 

[sbjnyc]

Gary Sanchez: the next Shane Spencer or Mike Piazza?

 

[MacTruck27]

Wow Cespedes says he wont opt out will honor the 3 year deal..Fantastic news

Ha! There's no way he won't opt out. Doesn't make any sense not to.