Prospect Info: Mitch Marner - 2016

[TheGroceryStick]

I fear more about being pressured to mirror a 'typical NHL frame' than him not being able to play at his own determined body type.

 

[Macallan18]

The problem I have with the discussion is that people generally jump from pointing out size differences to assuming that it has a certain impact. It could just as well be meaningless curiosa given importance by popular theory. In fact, the only study I've seen on the subject showed no significant difference in how often and well prospects of different sizes translated to the NHL.

As for comparing Tkachuk and Marner, talk about forcing the dots to connect. Only the most shallow of comparisons would put them as similar level of prospect, and I'm not sure why anyone would be satisfied with a shallow, imprecise analysis.

What would be interesting is a study on the correlation between size in the nhl and injuries. I think that is the real concern about Marner, not that he can be effective, but will get injured.

 

[theIceWookie]

What would be interesting is a study on the correlation between size in the nhl and injuries. I think that is the real concern about Marner, not that he can be effective, but will get injured.

I would imagine that there is pretty much no correlation. Rarely do we actually see small players having their careers ended like so many people talk about.

But I would legitimately like to see a study about that. It would be intriguing

 

[theIceWookie]

The problem I have with the discussion is that people generally jump from pointing out size differences to assuming that it has a certain impact. It could just as well be meaningless curiosa given importance by popular theory. In fact, the only study I've seen on the subject showed no significant difference in how often and well prospects of different sizes translated to the NHL.

As for comparing Tkachuk and Marner, talk about forcing the dots to connect. Only the most shallow of comparisons would put them as similar level of prospect, and I'm not sure why anyone would be satisfied with a shallow, imprecise analysis.

Yep

I don't think he's ready and it's not that I'm worried about his size or anything but his body needs to mature more for sure. He lacks explosiveness in his game, including his skating and his arms (shooting & snapping passes). I just think he needs his legs and rest of his body to catch up with him and he's gonna be an absolutely great player! I don't see why people are so worked up over his next year, if he makes the team - great! It'll be fun to watch him up with the leafs and seeing him contribute. If he doesn't make the team - great! There is no rush, we will see a ton of him either way and years to come on the leafs.

See that's a good reason though. It's not just "small he shouldn't make it". You have valid arguments for wanting him to mature more. I'm ok with that line of reasoning. It's the argument's where people just toss around "small" like it means something.

Great touch adding the picture of him standing next to the 6"4, 215 lbs. Lawson Crouse. Atta boy, Mess.

And with a jersey that basically masks all of his body lol

 

[SprDaVE]

What would be interesting is a study on the correlation between size in the nhl and injuries. I think that is the real concern about Marner, not that he can be effective, but will get injured.

I would imagine that there is pretty much no correlation. Rarely do we actually see small players having their careers ended like so many people talk about.

I'm extremely confident in saying there isn't any correlation at all. It's a myth that's not supported by any facts.

Plus, what's your cut off for big VS small? Is Skinner a small player despite his size being around 190 lbs? What kind of injury is related to size or not? Malkin is always injured but do hamstring injuries count as part of the 'tough' nature of the NHL or is he just a weak player? Is Crosby a small player (he isn't), as we all know his injury list? McDavid is a pretty big guy for an 18 year old but suffered his 2nd big injury in a span of a year, one in the OHL and one in the NHL.

It's just... I don't even know how to describe where we're at right now.

 

[Mess]

He had done enough to know what we have i think. Its disappointment in terms of development for me because he can't go to the American Hockey League.

I expect him to dominate at times in the playoffs but doubt he will put up 2 points per game in them this year. He will likely be shadowed and getting extra physical attention.

So there is possibly that opportunity to see how he handles that. Teams will try running him a little extra though for sure. Its the Ohl after all.

GM Lou Lam said he doesn't think Marner is NHL ready today.

So that leaves the OHL playoffs and a good off season in the gym to see what he looks like at camp and if he is NHL ready in September.

The biggest thing standing in the way of the NHL for Marner is Marner himself at this point. How much effort and work he puts in from now to then will determine what happen next to see if he can change the Leafs GM mind.

If Marner doesn't make the Leafs next he will have no one to blame but himself, as I'm sure Leafs would like a easy decision to keep him as he leaves no doubt mentally, physically and his on ice impact by his play that he has arrived.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

And with a jersey that basically masks all of his body lol

Just loosely related enough to not be blatant. I love it.

The guy really is the master. I tip my cap to him Derek Jeter style.

 

[SprDaVE]

just loosely related enough to not be blatant. I love it.

The guy really is the master. I tip my cap to him derek jeter style.

#re2pect

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm extremely confident in saying there isn't any correlation at all. It's a myth that's not supported by any facts.

Plus, what's your cut off or big VS small? Is Skinner a small player despite his size being around 190 lbs? What kind of injury is related to size or not? Malkin is always injured but do hamstring injuries count as part of the 'tough' nature of the NHL or is he just a weak player? Is Crosby a small player (he isn't), as we all know his injury list? McDavid is a pretty big guy for an 18 year old but suffered his 2nd big injury in a span of a year, one in the OHL and one in the NHL.

It's just... I don't even know how to describe where we're at right now.

Eric Lindros and Chris Pronger were 6"4 and 6"6 respectively, and built like defensive ends (at least CFL defensive ends...because lets be honest, hockey players are not very big in the overall scheme of North American sport). Size doesn't mean a damn thing if you skate with your head down.

 

[SprDaVE]

Eric Lindros and Chris Pronger were 6"4 and 6"6 respectively, and built like defensive ends (at least CFL defensive ends...because lets be honest, hockey players are not very big in the overall scheme of North American sport). Size doesn't mean a damn thing if you skate with your head down.

Some people in this thread just did this:

 

[saltming]

Please show me the data that indicates size is strongly correlated with injuries.


Hint: You won't be able to because it's not.

Indeed, a rut in the ice might have caused McDavid to lose his balance and fall down. And his exceptional skating ability might have resulted in him hitting the boards with greater force than a slower player would have. But did his age play a factor? Are teenagers, whose bodies have not yet matured, more vulnerable than older players?

According to sports doctors and strength and conditioning coaches, the short answer is no. The long answer is, well, maybe.


“But I do agree in principle that younger athletes are more susceptible, especially in contact sports just because they are less developed, not as strong and not as heavy as they will eventually be.”

It is partially for this reason why some teams almost always make their top prospects wait a year or more before bringing them into the league. In an interview with Postmedia News last month, Arizona Coyotes general manager Don Maloney said third-overall pick Dylan Strome was talented enough to play in the NHL, but sent the 18-year-old back to Erie because he was concerned with how his body would hold up playing against men.

“For me, it’s the physical demands,” said Maloney. “I’m very reluctant to put young players who are physically maturing into positions where injuries could occur. You see that all the time. It’s one ordinary hit and — ‘bam!’ — the shoulder’s gone and they’re set back.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports...y-didnt-play-a-factor-in-his-long-term-injury
It sounds like there isn't enough research on it.
As a trainer I know that when people are in growth spurts, the connective tissue and bone become spongy and it is easier to injure oneself. This is also true in full grown adults who undertake new regiments to change their physiological makeup.
So from my experience, and it is not to do with hockey, but directly with the changing of bodies, I would say there is more chance he COULD be injured. By what pecentage and is it significant enough to worry about? I can't say.

Edit reposting it because I think this is the only concern e mitch.
Also this will only be resolved at training camp.

 

[Apotheosis]

Marner plays with Tkachuk and Dvorak on the wing, no? That's one of the more celebrated junior lines in the CHL. He also seems to be a bit of a slow starter, torrid finisher, so his 2.5 PPG late in the year is kind of his annual hot streak.

No, when he plays Centre, they usually split up the big line to spread out the offence to get ready for the playoffs so they're not entirely reliant on that line.

 

[Apotheosis]

The size argument is so overdone, it's actually hilarious. Marner will likely top out at 5'11 or 6'0 at most around 180 pounds. Size isn't a problem. He's a talented skater and if he gets faster, the NHL should be worried. Size doesn't matter anymore. Guys like Gaudreau are dominating on talent alone. We saw how many chances he created against us last night. Marner has that ability.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I think Tkachuk is being slighted somewhat by comparison. Tkachuk does things consistently and with a high execution level on that line with Marner and Dvorak.

Things that make that line work!

I think he is a player i would not be disappointed with @ the 4 pick. With just a limited look at Willy to this point, i think Marner/Nylander/Tkachuk could provide the same high quality output line(Nhl) that we see with (Tkachuk and Marner with Dvorak) in the ohl.

Tkachuk might be the very best down low and cycle player we could get at #4. He is a great compliment to highly skilled but less effective physical players.

I like his work ethic and intensity. I think he comes up big for London this play-off and opens some eyes.

It wasn't meant as a slight.

I wouldn't like him at #4. I see your reasoning, but I don't think we are at a stage in our rebuild where it makes sense to veer from simply getting the best pieces possible, and I don't think Tkachuk is the fourth best prospect. I see him as a 6-10 range prospect, and one that will be the most valuable to a team that knows what they have.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

GM Lou Lam said he doesn't think Marner is NHL ready today.

So that leaves the OHL playoffs and a good off season in the gym to see what he looks like at camp and if he is NHL ready in September.

The biggest thing standing in the way of the NHL for Marner is Marner himself at this point. How much effort and work he puts in from now to then will determine what happen next to see if he can change the Leafs GM mind.

If Marner doesn't make the Leafs next he will have no one to blame but himself, as I'm sure Leafs would like a easy decision to keep him as he leaves no doubt mentally, physically and his on ice impact by his play that he has arrived.

If he gets to 175 lbs i would be calling it cieling. Thats enough for his frame by the looks of it. Working out with Roberts is about high performance eating habits and lifestyle prior to conditioning.

Projecting Marners skill is much easier than projecting his future playing weight. Hunter was quoted in the past saying he doesn't want any extreme weight gain for marner.

I think he realizes that quickness and durability is the key benchmark presently. Quickness/stamina is what will be the deciding factor likely. I would have preferred if Lou was able to add that he will have his time to get ready in the Ahl.

 

[burpsalot]

Right. there's only 5 players in the entire NHL that are 160lbs or less, out of 862 players that have played in the NHL this season and one of them is a leaf (Brown).

It's okay, you're only off by about 30 lbs.

 

[Johny Drama]

The size argument is so overdone, it's actually hilarious. Marner will likely top out at 5'11 or 6'0 at most around 180 pounds. Size isn't a problem. He's a talented skater and if he gets faster, the NHL should be worried. Size doesn't matter anymore. Guys like Gaudreau are dominating on talent alone. We saw how many chances he created against us last night. Marner has that ability.

Anyone remember Gilmour during the 93 playoffs?
As good a performance as most of us have ever seen from a Leaf player in the playoffs. I remember Pat Burns mentioning how his weight was down to around 165 lbs during that run.

If you look at Marner, he still looks about 16 years old. Would not surprise me in the least if he grows another inch or two. He will be fine.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

It wasn't meant as a slight.

I wouldn't like him at #4. I see your reasoning, but I don't think we are at a stage in our rebuild where it makes sense to veer from simply getting the best pieces possible, and I don't think Tkachuk is the fourth best prospect. I see him as a 6-10 range prospect, and one that will be the most valuable to a team that knows what they have.

I just meant in general by comparison. Sorry!

The draft basically gets interesting @ the 4 pick. Tkachuk is consensus 4 at present i believe. Hopefully we nail it if we land in the 4 slot.

 

[Jack Bauer]

I just meant in general by comparison. Sorry!

The draft basically gets interesting @ the 4 pick. Tkachuk is consensus 4 at present i believe. Hopefully we nail it if we land in the 4 slot.

Most have Dubois as the #4 pick, especially in rankings released over the last month or so.

Personally if we fall to #4 I'm expecting us to move down to 6/7 and accumulate some assets along the way.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The size argument is so overdone, it's actually hilarious. Marner will likely top out at 5'11 or 6'0 at most around 180 pounds. Size isn't a problem. He's a talented skater and if he gets faster, the NHL should be worried. Size doesn't matter anymore. Guys like Gaudreau are dominating on talent alone. We saw how many chances he created against us last night. Marner has that ability.

Kadri @ 185 pounds is one of the hardest hitters on the leafs. Lays people out and Marner has edge to his game also. I'm not concerned about him strengthening up at all. He isn't the weakling he is made out to be at present.

 

[ACC1224]

Most have Dubois as the #4 pick, especially in rankings released over the last month or so.

Personally if we fall to #4 I'm expecting us to move down to 6/7 and accumulate some assets along the way.

I'd agree. Top 3 they pick for sure, after that I could easily see them moving back or taking a defenseman.

 

[Menzinger]

The 5'9, 170ish pound frame of Jared Spurgeon hasnt stopped him from playing a physical game style with the Wild.

Skill allows smaller players to find their game better than bigger players with less skill. Case and point Ritchie vs Nylander.

People are grossly over exaggerating the impact of an extra 1-2 inches in height and 5-10 pounds in weight that will have on a player's game.

Marner has only received an injury when he had his head DOWN and received a cheap shot - it wasn't like he crumbled after a clean hit square between his shoulders. The same type of hit would have brought down any larger sizes player.

Eric Lindros and Chris Pronger were 6"4 and 6"6 respectively, and built like defensive ends (at least CFL defensive ends...because lets be honest, hockey players are not very big in the overall scheme of North American sport). Size doesn't mean a damn thing if you skate with your head down.

Yep, their size didn't stop their careers from ending earlier - Lindros especially.

 

[hotpaws]

The 5'9, 170ish pound frame of Jared Spurgeon hasnt stopped him from playing a physical game style with the Wild.

Skill allows smaller players to find their game better than bigger players with less skill. Case and point Ritchie vs Nylander.

People are grossly over exaggerating the impact of an extra 1-2 inches in height and 5-10 pounds in weight that will have on a player's game.

Marner has only received an injury when he had his head DOWN and received a cheap shot - it wasn't like he crumbled after a clean hit square between his shoulders. The same type of hit would have brought down any larger sizes player.

Yep, their size didn't stop their careers from ending earlier - Lindros especially.

why is it every time one of ours players get hit it's a cheap shot ?

if you have your head down you've put yourself in a position to get hit and DP used to take 10 runs at guys who were looking the other way or with there head down and this board cheered every time he laid someone out

 

[Mess]

I think a lot of people are missing the biggest point here.

Marner's current size is only related to WHEN he will be NHL ready and not IF he will some day.

Impatience by some seem to feel he needs to be in the NHL immediately, whereas others are saying what's the rush and let him get bigger and stronger first and then we can all enjoy the results for the Leafs.

The discussion about size is more about timing then it is about criticizing the player because he happens to be lightweight at this stage. When Mark Hunter drafted Marner he could recognize the skill just like everyone else can, but he also likely knew it would take time for him to grow and mature before the Leafs would reap the reward of that pick (with time). That is almost a given when you intentionally draft a smaller player for his skill level hoping his size will grown as he adds strength with development.

Conner Brown was drafted into the OHL at 125lbs and drafted by the Leafs @ 145lbs and now after more time and development is up in the 180s size wise. Connor Brown also lead the OHL in scoring with 68 games 45g 83a 128 points. It wasn't his offense that kept him out of the NHL until now, it has been his stature all along. Marner's situation is not all that different at present.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think a lot of people are missing the biggest point here.

Marner's current size is only related to WHEN he will be NHL ready and not IF he will some day.

Impatience by some seem to feel he needs to be in the NHL immediately, whereas others are saying what's the rush and let him get bigger and stronger first and then we can all enjoy the results for the Leafs.

The discussion about size is more about timing then it is about criticizing the player because he happens to be lightweight at this stage. When Mark Hunter drafted Marner he could recognize the skill just like everyone else can, but he also likely knew it would take time for him to grow and mature before the Leafs would reap the reward of that pick (with time). That is almost a given when you intentionally draft a smaller player for his skill level hoping his size will grown as he adds strength with development.

Conner Brown was drafted into the OHL at 125lbs and drafted by the Leafs @ 145lbs and now after more time and development is up in the 180s size wise. Connor Brown also lead the OHL in scoring with 68 games 45g 83a 128 points. It wasn't his offense that kept him out of the NHL until now, it has been his stature all along. Marner's situation is not all that different at present.

And the point you're missing is that the 'when' could very well be in 2016. Plenty of players have done it in the past and someone of Marners pedigree could very well do it as well. He's that good. Does it mean he's completely ready, or at least deserving of a NHL roster spot? No. Just like if Strome goes in the Coyotes camp (or any other team he would have been selected by) and doesn't play well, there's not much of a chance they keep a player that can't play in the NHL. He's not AHL eligible either. Size is irrelevant to a player being NHL ready or not. Do you get it?

There's no impatience from me anyway, I can't speak for anyone else. Let's see how he does in training camp and then revisit where he should play. The scale won't matter at that point at all, even if strength could still be an issue by then.