Prospect Info: Mitch Marner - 2016

[theIceWookie]

Average NHL size = 6-1 / 201 lbs

Top 5/6 - 2016 ranked prospects

A. Matthews - 6-2/195lbs
P. Laine - 6-4/210
J. Puljujärvi - 6-3/200
M. Tkachuk - 6-1/195
J. Chychrun - 6-2/195
P Dubois - 6-3/201

M. Marner 5-11/160ish

The reason many scouts feel the top 5-6 of the 2016 draft class could step into the NHL immediately is that they already physically at draft time measure up to NHL standards, and thus only need to be evaluated to how they perform on the ice thereafter.

If the Leafs drafted 4th and took Marner's linemate in London then it would be viewed as;

Marner 5-11/163 .. 57 games 39-77-116 points verses Tkachuk 6-1/195 .. 57 games 30-77-107 points.

Will the 9 extra junior points give Marner the edge as NHL ready or would the 2" and 30+ lbs be the bigger factoring Tkachuk?. I would guess that Leafs management (in an ideal World) would gladly give up the 9 points to have Marner 6-1/195lbs.

This line of reasoning continues to be among the stupidest line of reasoning on hfboards as a whole. Players develop the way they do because of certain factors. A heavier, larger Marner likely means he doesn't develop the same way. Like at all.

Not to mention that who cares who is NHL ready sooner. That doesn't determine much outside of who reached the NHL at an earlier age. It means nothing. Not to mention boiling it down to such a simple explanation of NHL readiness is purely idiotic. Weight and size are not the single determining thing that make a player NHL ready or not.

THE ONLY logical argument I've seen about size and Marner is the guy who argued that he'd be worried about a teenager who is still growing/developing physically playing in the NHL and having that hampered. That seems to be the only person who actually is making a rational argument that to me has merit.

Size alone doesn't determine readiness. In fact Marner gaining weight like so many of you are clamoring for MIGHT NOT EVEN BE A GOOD THING. It might make him less elusive because he can't figure out how to move around with that extra weight.

I can't believe that in 2016 people are still coming from the background of size being some big issue to overcome. It's not like every player needs to be a certain height/weight to play in the NHL. Players are all different.

 

[theIceWookie]

When I see Marner in the NHL, I see similarities to Kane, Skinner, Karlsson, Bennett, and even older but very light weight players like Gaudreau, Panarin, Johnson, Kucherov, etc have immediate high impacts on their respective rosters because of their top end talent and high hockey IQ along with very good mobility.

Marner isn't small, he's just light weight. Despite being light weight, he's still a really feisty player that will dig against massive players and win a lot of battles. You cannot fix height, but you defintiely can fix the weight/strength of a player to maximize it without compromising their overall game. We've all seen what determination can do to a player like Gilmour in Toronto, even in an era where light players were fairly rare. Sky high compete level.

There are a lot of examples of smaller and/or lightweight players having a very high impact on their respective rosters, whether they started as 18/19 year old players or coming in the league as 21+ year old players.

The one thing they all had in common is that they were able to come in and earn their roster spot, just like a bigger/heavier player would have to. It's really that simple. I don't understand why people are so focused on a scale... it's mind boggling to me how irrelevant it is.



That has to be one of the worst arguments or logic thought I've ever seen around here. I have no idea how you keep outdoing yourself Mess... but you keep doing it. Congrats.

It baffles me how size CONTINUES to be this big obstacle for people. Absolutely boggles me.

And I agree, that is one of the worst pieces of logic I've seen in a long time on this site

 

[Mess]

Despite the size difference & closeness of points. I would guess the Leafs & "almost" anyone that has watched both them play, would pick Marner.

There is a good chance that both players could go 4th overall in their respective draft classes in back to back years. They might even both become Leafs picks in that similar draft spot.

One player has a skill advantage and the other a size advantage. Both players finished top 5 in OHL scoring and both players had 77 assists in 57 games.

How this will all translate to the NHL in the future is what remains to be seen. Remember this isn't about seeing them as junior players against kids and deciding who is better today, but how effective each player will become as pros in the NHL in the future and how their current games will translate at higher levels.

One projects to be a big powerforward while the other a smaller elite skilled winger so they're not really comparable as similar styled players and their NHL impact would reflect that accordingly.

Your saying that if the Leafs drafted both Marner and Tkachuk you'd prefer Marner of the two prospects personally believing he would have the bigger impact on the Leafs in the future.

PS. I'm not a big Tkachuk fan so I'm not arguing for or against either player, just pointing out the advantages/disadvantages of this comparison. Also we don't have to pick Marner he is already a Leaf.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

just a general question, do you people ever tire of literally talking about the same thing every single day? this thread should almost be dormant until camp. there is next to no useful information being disseminated in this thread

 

[ACC1224]

just a general question, do you people ever tire of literally talking about the same thing every single day? this thread should almost be dormant until camp. there is next to no useful information being disseminated in this thread

Not a lot of fresh topics to discuss.

 

[SprDaVE]

just a general question, do you people ever tire of literally talking about the same thing every single day? this thread should almost be dormant until camp. there is next to no useful information being disseminated in this thread

It's like a Weight Watchers seminar basically.

 

[Mess]

just a general question, do you people ever tire of literally talking about the same thing every single day? this thread should almost be dormant until camp. there is next to no useful information being disseminated in this thread

Marner's OHL play in the upcoming playoffs as he tries to lead his team to the memorial Cup will be something of great interest and discussion in the present.

 

[rrc1967]

It baffles me how size CONTINUES to be this big obstacle for people. Absolutely boggles me.

And I agree, that is one of the worst pieces of logic I've seen in a long time on this site

Right. there's only 5 players in the entire NHL that are 160lbs or less, out of 862 players that have played in the NHL this season and one of them is a leaf (Brown).

what boggles the mind is that some thing that a Gaudreau is more the common, versus the exception.

As far as centers, the "lightest" full time center in the NHL is around 178lbs.

so again, what's the odds at a 5'11" 160lb center is going to translate well into the NHL?

332 out of 432 forwards are taller than 5'11" that have played more than 20 games this season, 429 of them are 170 or over.

Gaudreau is the only forward to buck that trend.

Pretty small odds.

also as Edmonton has shown, rushing young players that aren't physically ready just simply leads to get injured more often.

this team will be young, not that big .. bad combination when a defenseman outweighs you by 40-60 pounds. the Median weight of defensemen in the NHL is around 205lbs.

 

[ACC1224]

Is the belief that Marner still weighs 160?

 

[Jerkini]

Right. there's only 5 players in the entire NHL that are 160lbs or less, out of 862 players that have played in the NHL this season and one of them is a leaf (Brown).

what boggles the mind is that some thing that a Gaudreau is more the common, versus the exception.

As far as centers, the "lightest" full time center in the NHL is around 178lbs.

so again, what's the odds at a 5'11" 160lb center is going to translate well into the NHL?

He's a teenager. You don't think he's going to grow into his body? Put on muscle? Get heavier? You think all these guys in the NHL were 178 pounds from the get-go?

 

[SprDaVE]

Right. there's only 5 players in the entire NHL that are 160lbs or less, out of 862 players that have played in the NHL this season and one of them is a leaf (Brown).

what boggles the mind is that some thing that a Gaudreau is more the common, versus the exception.

As far as centers, the "lightest" full time center in the NHL is around 178lbs.

so again, what's the odds at a 5'11" 160lb center is going to translate well into the NHL?

First, he's not 160 lbs or less. Neither is Brown from his own mouth.

Second, you assume he will stay at around 165. Pretty rare that a teenager doesn't get stronger and heavier as he gets in adulthood, especially one that will have some of the best trainers in hockey in the short-term. Let's not forget Nylander went from around 165 lbs to around 190 lbs in the course of a few months.

Third, he's 6' now last I checked.

Fourth, Gaudreau isn't an exception. You have plenty of light weight and even small players around the league. Some are exceptional players (Kane leads the league in scoring by 12 points.). Some are average. Some are not that good.

 

[ULF_55]

Right. there's only 5 players in the entire NHL that are 160lbs or less, out of 862 players that have played in the NHL this season and one of them is a leaf (Brown).

what boggles the mind is that some thing that a Gaudreau is more the common, versus the exception.

As far as centers, the "lightest" full time center in the NHL is around 178lbs.

so again, what's the odds at a 5'11" 160lb center is going to translate well into the NHL?

Marner isn't a center anyway.

He's a winger and he's still a kid.

You can't force physical maturity, although you can train to be stronger.

 

[theIceWookie]

Marner's OHL play in the upcoming playoffs as he tries to lead his team to the memorial Cup will be something of great interest and discussion in the present.

So you've mentioned like six times now

First, he's not 160 lbs or less.

Second, you assume he will stay at 160 lbs.

Third, he's 6' now last I checked.

Fourth, Gaudreau isn't an exception. You have plenty of light weight and even small players around the league. Some are exceptional players (Kane leads the league in scoring by 12 points.). Some are average. Some are not that good.

Which can pretty much be said about the large players too. I feel like that's something people forget to think about. I just don't get why it's such a consistent issue for only the small players...

 

[SprDaVE]

Which can pretty much be said about the large players too. I feel like that's something people forget to think about. I just don't get why it's such a consistent issue for only the small players...

Which is my point.

 

[Mess]

Is the belief that Marner still weighs 160?

That is what is being reported recently.

http://www.tsn.ca/2016-world-juniors-team-canada-roster-1.412372

His London Knights own website lists him at 164.

http://www.londonknights.com/roster/index/team/14/season/last

 

[ULF_55]

First, he's not 160 lbs or less.

Second, you assume he will stay at around 165. Pretty rare that a teenager doesn't get stronger and heavier as he gets in adulthood, especially one that will have some of the best trainers in hockey in the short-term.

Third, he's 6' now last I checked.

Fourth, Gaudreau isn't an exception. You have plenty of light weight and even small players around the league. Some are exceptional players (Kane leads the league in scoring by 12 points.). Some are average. Some are not that good.

How many NHL regulars do you think are less than 170 lbs.?

This year, 3.

Gaudreau most definitely is an exception.

 

[ACC1224]

That is what is being reported recently.

http://www.tsn.ca/2016-world-juniors-team-canada-roster-1.412372

His London Knights own website lists him at 164.

http://www.londonknights.com/roster/index/team/14/season/last

when was he weighed for those at camp?

 

[SprDaVE]

How many NHL regulars do you think are less than 170 lbs.?

This year, 3.

Gaudreau most definitely is an exception.

And you don't think Marner can gain 5-6 pounds in the summer to get over 170 lbs? He's listed at 165 lbs on the Knights website. I can gain 5 pounds in a sitting at thanksgiving. I'm pretty sure a blue chip prospect with the aid of top level trainers can get him to be much stronger and heavier in the span of 5-6 months.

How many players are between 170 and 185 lbs, which is probably still considered light weight around these parts? You're adding a lot of names from Kucherov to Giroux. Karlsson wasn't much heavier than a wet noodle for most his dominant playing time but he's been over 190 lbs in the last year or so.

At which point is he not considered some sort of flight risk in terms of weight? Is there a handbook about this?

 

[Nithoniniel]

The problem I have with the discussion is that people generally jump from pointing out size differences to assuming that it has a certain impact. It could just as well be meaningless curiosa given importance by popular theory. In fact, the only study I've seen on the subject showed no significant difference in how often and well prospects of different sizes translated to the NHL.

As for comparing Tkachuk and Marner, talk about forcing the dots to connect. Only the most shallow of comparisons would put them as similar level of prospect, and I'm not sure why anyone would be satisfied with a shallow, imprecise analysis.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Marner's OHL play in the upcoming playoffs as he tries to lead his team to the memorial Cup will be something of great interest and discussion in the present.

He had done enough to know what we have i think. Its disappointment in terms of development for me because he can't go to the American Hockey League.

I expect him to doninate at times in the playoffs but doubt he will put up 2 points per game in them this year. He will likely be shadowed and getting extra physical attention.

So there is possibly that opportunity to see how he handles that. Teams will try running him a little extra though for sure. Its the Ohl after all.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

This line of reasoning continues to be among the stupidest line of reasoning on hfboards as a whole. Players develop the way they do because of certain factors. A heavier, larger Marner likely means he doesn't develop the same way. Like at all.

Not to mention that who cares who is NHL ready sooner. That doesn't determine much outside of who reached the NHL at an earlier age. It means nothing. Not to mention boiling it down to such a simple explanation of NHL readiness is purely idiotic. Weight and size are not the single determining thing that make a player NHL ready or not.

THE ONLY logical argument I've seen about size and Marner is the guy who argued that he'd be worried about a teenager who is still growing/developing physically playing in the NHL and having that hampered. That seems to be the only person who actually is making a rational argument that to me has merit.

Size alone doesn't determine readiness. In fact Marner gaining weight like so many of you are clamoring for MIGHT NOT EVEN BE A GOOD THING. It might make him less elusive because he can't figure out how to move around with that extra weight.

I can't believe that in 2016 people are still coming from the background of size being some big issue to overcome. It's not like every player needs to be a certain height/weight to play in the NHL. Players are all different.

I don't think he's ready and it's not that I'm worried about his size or anything but his body needs to mature more for sure. He lacks explosiveness in his game, including his skating and his arms (shooting & snapping passes). I just think he needs his legs and rest of his body to catch up with him and he's gonna be an absolutely great player! I don't see why people are so worked up over his next year, if he makes the team - great! It'll be fun to watch him up with the leafs and seeing him contribute. If he doesn't make the team - great! There is no rush, we will see a ton of him either way and years to come on the leafs.

 

[LeafsGeeks]

While I understand the fear over Marner's weight, how many players in the NHL have had back to back 2ppg seasons in the OHL? Size would be a huge concern if he didn't have the talent, but considering his elite scoring ability shouldn't that be enough to trump his size concerns, especially considering he's 18 and can put on significant strength this season working out with Gary Roberts? Just a thought, but I definitely get why people are terrified of a top prospect being 160 pounds. I just think his incredible 2-year production at the OHL level (best since John Tavares) should give us reason to think he'll still be able to produce at the NHL. We'll have to wait and see though.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

That is what is being reported recently.

http://www.tsn.ca/2016-world-juniors-team-canada-roster-1.412372

His London Knights own website lists him at 164.

http://www.londonknights.com/roster/index/team/14/season/last

Great touch adding the picture of him standing next to the 6"4, 215 lbs. Lawson Crouse. Atta boy, Mess.

 

[ACC1224]

Great touch adding the picture of him standing next to the 6"4, 215 lbs. Lawson Crouse. Atta boy, Mess.

Classic.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The problem I have with the discussion is that people generally jump from pointing out size differences to assuming that it has a certain impact. It could just as well be meaningless curiosa given importance by popular theory. In fact, the only study I've seen on the subject showed no significant difference in how often and well prospects of different sizes translated to the NHL.

As for comparing Tkachuk and Marner, talk about forcing the dots to connect. Only the most shallow of comparisons would put them as similar level of prospect, and I'm not sure why anyone would be satisfied with a shallow, imprecise analysis.

I think Tkachuk is being slighted somewhat by comparison. Tkachuk does things consistently and with a high execution level on that line with Marner and Dvorak.

Things that make that line work!

I think he is a player i would not be disappointed with @ the 4 pick. With just a limited look at Willy to this point, i think Marner/Nylander/Tkachuk could provide the same high quality output line(Nhl) that we see with (Tkachuk and Marner with Dvorak) in the ohl.

Tkachuk might be the very best down low and cycle player we could get at #4. He is a great compliment to highly skilled but less effective physical players.

I like his work ethic and intensity. I think he comes up big for London this play-off and opens some eyes.