Prospect Info: Mitch Marner - 2016

[Mess]

I want to see how Strome does in the big games this year. Barely over a Pt/game for an OHL scoring champion last year in the playoffs is pretty sad, especially when you aren't even facing top tier checking because McDavid is getting the tough match ups. You can pretty much lay the blame at the feet of Dylan Strome for Erie not capturing the OHL title and making an appearance at the Memorial Cup.

The midget Marner put up 2 pts/game playing centre (after playing wing all year) and forced Erie to cheap shot him because of how dominant he was.

Strome wasn't an option for the Leafs as he was already off the board at Leafs pick. So not sure why you're going back to pre-draft results.

This years playoffs will be interesting to see how Marner does verses his peers and as I suggested earlier in the thread I think Leafs management will be following Marner's OHL playoffs closely to see what kind of impact he has this year. If a player is "too good" for OHL then how he performs in the playoffs will be a better gauge if he has anything left to prove at the junior level.

 

[Apotheosis]

Can't comment on Marner's overall game, but his PPG didn't really go up that much. 2.03 vs 2.00 isn't a massive step forward. It will be interesting to see how they handle him and the 2016 first overall as well.

Context.

Being played at Centre without regular line mates, where he is statistically better playing as a winger.

Also, coming back from the WJC, where most players have a "funk". Could have just as easily score 2.5 PPG this season, but it doesn't really matter.

I want to see how Strome does in the big games this year. Barely over a Pt/game for an OHL scoring champion last year in the playoffs is pretty sad, especially when you aren't even facing top tier checking because McDavid is getting the tough match ups. You can pretty much lay the blame at the feet of Dylan Strome for Erie not capturing the OHL title and making an appearance at the Memorial Cup.

The midget Marner put up 2 pts/game playing centre (after playing wing all year) and forced Erie to cheap shot him because of how dominant he was.

Dude, just stop responding to Mess.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Needs to have an "NHL" summer. Get up to about 180lbs. Grow a mustache so he can join Lou's program and shave it off

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Found another one of his assists.

Skip to 00:28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bltnRJ0p0b0

Edit: It's Tkachuk's highlights, but you see a LOT of Marner's plays. It's basically Marner highlights too!

 

[Stephen]

Context.

Being played at Centre without regular line mates, where he is statistically better playing as a winger.

Also, coming back from the WJC, where most players have a "funk". Could have just as easily score 2.5 PPG this season, but it doesn't really matter.

Marner plays with Tkachuk and Dvorak on the wing, no? That's one of the more celebrated junior lines in the CHL. He also seems to be a bit of a slow starter, torrid finisher, so his 2.5 PPG late in the year is kind of his annual hot streak.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

It is conceivable that any of the top 5 drafted by us could step in right away b4 Marner. I'm sure the media would have a field day with that

 

[Stephen]

It is conceivable that any of the top 5 drafted by us could step in right away b4 Marner. I'm sure the media would have a field day with that

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

Only thing I'm a little worried with regards to Marner is what if the Leafs start making big progress in the standings with a Stamkos, Nylander, 2016 first, Hyman, Soshnikov, etc. leading the way, does he suddenly find himself on the outside looking in and will there be temptation to move him for a similar prospect at another position? That's my worry.

 

[TheOtherSide]

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

Only thing I'm a little worried with regards to Marner is what if the Leafs start making big progress in the standings with a Stamkos, Nylander, 2016 first, Hyman, Soshnikov, etc. leading the way, does he suddenly find himself on the outside looking in and will there be temptation to move him for a similar prospect at another position? That's my worry.

So basically become Drouin?

 

[saltming]

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

Only thing I'm a little worried with regards to Marner is what if the Leafs start making big progress in the standings with a Stamkos, Nylander, 2016 first, Hyman, Soshnikov, etc. leading the way, does he suddenly find himself on the outside looking in and will there be temptation to move him for a similar prospect at another position? That's my worry.

I don't think they would give up marner. If the things you say come true he might be expendable, but on the flip side. If those players, hyman etc, play well and management sees marner as an upgrade why wouldn't we sell high on what we deem a lesser talent like hyman to fill that other need?

 

[7even]

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

I trust the Toronto media to represent the situation fairly and with their famous sober levelheadedness

 

[Muston Atthews]

I don't anticipate Marner getting traded ever. Would go against the whole "Toronto boys coming home"

 

[93LEAFS]

Neither could John Tavares. In fact in his 18-yo season his PPG declined.

Staying above 2 ppg for consecutive years is insanely hard, Savard and Spezza also failed to accomplish it. Out of recent draftees Sam Reinhart's declined from 18 to 19 by a sizable amount and Draisaitl's stayed roughly the same. The only players to surge way past the pace Marner had at the same age since 2000 are McDavid, Kane and somehow Cory Locke (whose numbers crashed down the next year, leading me to believe if tracked he had an insane PDO that normalized the next year).

 

[JEI]

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

Only thing I'm a little worried with regards to Marner is what if the Leafs start making big progress in the standings with a Stamkos, Nylander, 2016 first, Hyman, Soshnikov, etc. leading the way, does he suddenly find himself on the outside looking in and will there be temptation to move him for a similar prospect at another position? That's my worry.

Can't be worried that a position is going to be too stacked that it requires a trade to facilitate an area of weakness. They are going to continue building (presumably) and sooner or later some guys are just not going to fit or price themselves off the team.

I think what will benefit Marner is his immense skill level and coming in on an ELC a bit later than others. If anything, his contract may make him more desirable to keep around than the Hymans/Soshnikovs etc that will expire sooner and have NHL resumes to pump their value. But all these situations are based on everyone hitting their stride at the same time/right time, so it would be a good headache to have.

 

[Mess]

Just given his physical maturity that wouldn't be the biggest shock, but it shouldn't mean anything about his long term potential.

This is the glass half full verses half empty viewpoint.

Some fans see Marner's hockey skills and production tearing up the OHL and claim that makes him NHL ready.

Whereas management and some fans wonder if he is physically and mentally ready and mature enough at this point to be NHL ready, which has nothing to do with his goals and assists in junior.

You have a highest scoring junior player debate verses he would be on of the smallest (lightest) NHL players concerns about his well being. Seems like a bottom up (junior production) verses a top down (NHL ready) where NO one is denying or questioning or criticizing his skills just put the focus on other aspects required to be a successful NHL regular.

 

[burpsalot]

It is conceivable that any of the top 5 drafted by us could step in right away b4 Marner. I'm sure the media would have a field day with that

I think the top 2 would be more accurate.

 

[AppsSyl]

It is conceivable that any of the top 5 drafted by us could step in right away b4 Marner. I'm sure the media would have a field day with that

It is not a race though. Whether he is ready this year, next, or the year after, as long as he reaches his potential that is what matters. We are rebuilding, so there is no need to make rash decisions with him.

 

[Mess]

It is conceivable that any of the top 5 drafted by us could step in right away b4 Marner. I'm sure the media would have a field day with that

Average NHL size = 6-1 / 201 lbs

Top 5/6 - 2016 ranked prospects

A. Matthews - 6-2/195lbs
P. Laine - 6-4/210
J. Puljujärvi - 6-3/200
M. Tkachuk - 6-1/195
J. Chychrun - 6-2/195
P Dubois - 6-3/201

M. Marner 5-11/160ish

The reason many scouts feel the top 5-6 of the 2016 draft class could step into the NHL immediately is that they already physically at draft time measure up to NHL standards, and thus only need to be evaluated to how they perform on the ice thereafter.

If the Leafs drafted 4th and took Marner's linemate in London then it would be viewed as;

Marner 5-11/163 .. 57 games 39-77-116 points verses Tkachuk 6-1/195 .. 57 games 30-77-107 points.

Will the 9 extra junior points give Marner the edge as NHL ready or would the 2" and 30+ lbs be the bigger factoring Tkachuk?. I would guess that Leafs management (in an ideal World) would gladly give up the 9 points to have Marner 6-1/195lbs.

 

[SprDaVE]

When I see Marner in the NHL, I see similarities to Kane, Skinner, Karlsson, Bennett, and even older but very light weight players like Gaudreau, Panarin, Johnson, Kucherov, etc have immediate high impacts on their respective rosters because of their top end talent and high hockey IQ along with very good mobility.

Marner isn't small, he's just light weight. Despite being light weight, he's still a really feisty player that will dig against massive players and win a lot of battles. You cannot fix height, but you defintiely can fix the weight/strength of a player to maximize it without compromising their overall game. We've all seen what determination can do to a player like Gilmour in Toronto, even in an era where light players were fairly rare. Sky high compete level.

There are a lot of examples of smaller and/or lightweight players having a very high impact on their respective rosters, whether they started as 18/19 year old players or coming in the league as 21+ year old players.

The one thing they all had in common is that they were able to come in and earn their roster spot, just like a bigger/heavier player would have to. It's really that simple. I don't understand why people are so focused on a scale... it's mind boggling to me how irrelevant it is.

Marner 5-11/163 .. 57 games 39-77-116 points verses Tkachuk 6-1/195 .. 57 games 30-77-107 points.

Will the 9 extra junior points give Marner the edge as NHL ready or would the 2" and 30+ lbs be the bigger factoring Tkachuk?. I would guess that Leafs management (in an ideal World) would gladly give up the 9 points to have Marner 6-1/195lbs.

That has to be one of the worst arguments or logic thought I've ever seen around here. I have no idea how you keep outdoing yourself Mess... but you keep doing it. Congrats.

 

[burpsalot]

Average NHL size = 6-1 / 201 lbs

Top 5 2016 ranked prospects

A. Matthews - 6-2/195lbs
P. Laine - 6-4/210
J. Puljujärvi - 6-3/200
M. Tkachuk - 6-1/195
J. Chychrun - 6-2/195
P Dubois - 6-3/201

M. Marner 5-11/160ish

The reason many scouts feel the top 5-6 of the 2016 draft class could step into the NHL immediately is that they already physically at draft time measure up to NHL standards, and thus only need to be evaluated to how they perform on the ice thereafter.

If the Leafs drafted 4th and took Marner's linemate in London then it would be viewed as;

Marner 5-11/163 .. 57 games 39-77-116 points verses Tkachuk 6-1/195 .. 57 games 30-77-107 points.

Will the 9 extra junior points give Marner the edge as NHL ready or would the 2" and 30+ lbs be the bigger factoring Tkachuk?. I would guess that Leafs management (in an ideal World) would gladly give up the 9 points to have Marner 6-1/195lbs.

Despite the size difference & closeness of points. I would guess the Leafs & "almost" anyone that has watched both them play, would pick Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

Despite the size difference & closeness of points. I would guess the Leafs & "almost" anyone that has watched both them play, would pick Marner.

Not "almost", everyone who has watched "both them play, would pick Marner".

 

[burpsalot]

Not "almost", everyone who has watched "both them play, would pick Marner".

I used "almost" because there seems to be one on here.

 

[ACC1224]

I used "almost" because there seems to be one on here.

Maybe "has watched" is where you're wrong.

 

[burpsalot]

Maybe "has watched" is where you're wrong.

Maybe.

 

[ULF_55]

Despite the size difference & closeness of points. I would guess the Leafs & "almost" anyone that has watched both them play, would pick Marner.

Everyone should pick Marner if he is physically ready to play in the NHL.

I'm sure he is much more talented than NHL players.

The talent isn't why he isn't in the NHL.

A year provides a long time to physically develop, so no reason this year for Marner to be as unprepared as he was last training camp. It would be a huge failure if he isn't immensely better this time.

 

[Grapes1]

Marner is just one piece of the puzzle guys... one piece.

An extremely talented piece. Who cares if he is ready or not next year... we are not even close to the finish line. If he is ready in 2016/2017 vs 2017/2018, does it really matter... will it change anything??? When he gets here, he will have an impact. PATIENCE.