the chances that the pick the rangers get from the oilers being better than the player the rangers get from the 2020 draft + miller will be pretty high
Value of: Miller + to EDM for Oilers 2018 1st pick [unconditional]
- Thread starter bernmeister
- Start date
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
I think the Rangers fans in this thread are missing the fact that the Rangers first rounder in this deal is in 2020...
Nevermind, just realised its NYR 2020 1st. Edmonton won't do it. And NYR are still playing Dahlen roullette.
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If ya don't like the value, fine, that's why I asked.
But let's be fair and accurate.
It's not just Miller, it's Miller and a future 1st.
The whole thing is where do you think Oilers finish
a) w/out Miller
b) w/Miller
yes the Rangers 2020 is a crapshoot, but you are getting the F now to move up.
EDM needs more quality players
Miller is better than 50pts w/o AV, and would help create a dominant line with McDavid + LeoDrai
w/o knowing where we your team finishes and what that means to lottery odds, it's a guesstimate of reward v risk
Thanks.
The whole issue is based on who wants to gamble, or not.
If there is a wait and see and it is the 1st, then the price would go up, and even still, you would not move it; if it is not the 1st, NY does not make this deal.
Fatty McLardy
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- Oct 6, 2017
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What an awful Trade for the Oilers. First of all JT Miller is not that good of a player, he's not the type of player you win with in the playoffs, 40 games 1 goal in the playoffs, isn't the kind of garbage the oilers should be getting back if they're trading their top pick..
P.s. i know the Rangers are including the 2020 1st round pick but that pick could easily be a mid to late pick..
P.s. i know the Rangers are including the 2020 1st round pick but that pick could easily be a mid to late pick..
CapitalsCupReality
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It is not moving up 3 or 4 slots.
It is a swap of picks at the cost of JT to ADD another pick this year to get 2 bites of the apple.
Figure EDM finishes 7-10 instead of 5-6. Rangers finish 4th or 5th from bottom. Slightly improved odds.
Of course, possible injury could skew things, and EDM may go on a tear and avoid the lottery altogether
it's a gamble
Fair enough as to 1st off the table.
Miller will renew 8 years w/Rangers at 4.25 per, but may go less term for mo $ - closer to 5m - if sent elsewhere.
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
It's an unprotected first for a 50 point player and a dice roll two years from now. No GM in their right mind is trading a lotto pick. If that ends up as Dahlin and he pans out as expected that's one of the worst trades ever.
haveandare
Registered User
Yeah, my bad, thought it was this year's pick when I first read it.
Not sure what kind of value a first 2 years down the road has honestly. Has one ever been traded two years out?
Not cheap.
There is risk/reward either way.
Oil can't guarantee anything with that pick, so that's as far as I go.
You rather keep it, develop it, and put it to use in a couple of years, fine.
Obviously, if Oil were to get Dahlin directly, that would be a massive loss, but that is a very, very small chance.
Bern, it's no secret I'm not in your fan club, but I'm going to keep it civil. Trading a first rounder before draft day is risky. Trading a first rounder a year ahead of time even moreso. Two years out is like going all in without even looking at your hand. This is how Guy Lafleur became one of the great Montreal Canadiens of all time instead of the savior of the Golden Seals franchise. You are the only guy I know that could make proposals that Phil Esposito would dismiss as madness. Two years from now Henrik could very well be gone. Shestorkin could be great, or he could go Dan Blackburn and fizzle for no fault of his own. You don't know what this team will look like in 2020. It's a gamble, but it's heavily weighted towards busting. Too big of a risk to take.
This is probably the consensus
The reward of a good F now + a delayed 1st is not enough to offset a POSSIBLE shot at Dahlin
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Right, but you're trying to get Edmonton to take every ounce of the risk here for a pretty poor return. There isn't even any conditional picks added in case of a top 3 pick or a lottery win. The value is all on NYR's side.
I don't think that any GM will ever trade an unconditional pick in the next Summers draft ever again.
There is bold and then there is reckless(stupid?).
GMs want to keep their jobs.
No GM will get pilloried or fired for a trade that they didn't make but they would if they made one and it cost them an player like Rasmus Dahlin.
Think of the Sens trade for Duchene.
It is the Sens who decide whether the Colorado pick will be in this years draft (if the Sens are in the top 10 they chose whether this will be Colorado's pick or whether they will get the Sens unconditional first pick the following year).
This allows the GM the whole next year to make sure that their first pick isn't a lottery pick.
There is bold and then there is reckless(stupid?).
GMs want to keep their jobs.
No GM will get pilloried or fired for a trade that they didn't make but they would if they made one and it cost them an player like Rasmus Dahlin.
Think of the Sens trade for Duchene.
It is the Sens who decide whether the Colorado pick will be in this years draft (if the Sens are in the top 10 they chose whether this will be Colorado's pick or whether they will get the Sens unconditional first pick the following year).
This allows the GM the whole next year to make sure that their first pick isn't a lottery pick.
no big whoop on the misread.
You and I may disagree on some things, but there is no animosity.
There are too many variables esp since NYR will undergo large makeover to know where that pick projects.
I felt 2020 was fair given the surrender of the known commodity in Miller, and was close enough.
haveandare
Registered User
Yeah, we're all speculating, you give us some out of the box stuff to think on/talk about. People take the trade board in particular way too seriously Imo. I wouldn't want every thread to be so out there, but now and again it doesn't hurt.
But yeah, aside from lack of historical precedent and EDM really, really needing a guy like Dahlin, NYR's 2020 pick is too unknown given what they plan to try to do. Could be a lottery pick, could be kind late depending on a ton of factors.
24 year old 50~ player is not that good?
Thanks for letting everyone here know you have no idea who the hell JT Miller even is.
Thanks for the honest exchange.
And I agree let's keep it civil.
I am not a fan of Espo as either GM or what we got for Ratelle/Park, so assuming your assessment is correct, I am not insulted.
As to the bold, it IS a HUGE risk.
However, if you want difference makers, and can't likely get one otherwise, you have to gamble like this, even if you lose.
Depth is important.
But teams that get Crosby, etc have a leg up.
