Speculation: Matt Duchene Megathread pt2 - All News/Proposals Go Here

[cgf]

It's interesting that you see that they have no talent on the power play. When I watched them it's been MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie and Rantenen. If there's no talent then why does this thread contain so many posts about how valuable the first four are?

People can't have it both ways; either each of these guys are worth a lot because they are so talented or they aren't worth much because they are bad players. Which is it?

That and Rantanen being the only PPQB of the group. MacK is a trigger man, Duchene & Landeskog are great down low, but Barrie just isn't all that good on the PP. Tyson is great at ES, where he can dance around forecheckers to make things happen; but on the PP his shot limits him and his passing isn't incisive enough to run a high end PP.

But Army's 'everyone feed Iggy' stratagem really didn't help.

 

[TheTakedown]

Ghost isnt far off from Duchene value wise, and Brigras, by accounts of Avs fans on this site, is a reach to be anything more than a bottom pairing D man at this point. (He also does nothing for what is one of the best prospect D pools in the league).

The difference between the two certainly isn't Konecny, if there is one at all, and it most definitely doesnt include a 1st.

Ghost and Flyers 2nd at most for Duchene, the other parts don't need to be included. And even then, I don't think I'd do it. I get that Colorado needs to have an incentive to move him, but i'm just not sure I'd be willing to do more than Ghost with a late round pick.

Outside fan, I'd absolutely agree to this

 

[cgf]

I'm not sure of the posters - maybe ive mistaken him with someone else, win which case I apologize for mis-speaking. I thought i remembered a few fans saying he hadnt developed properly, but that may be because of the injuries, now that i think about it. Those would also concerning for us, given we have Myers who has similar issues.

That said, the proposed deal still doesnt work. I imagine Colorado would want a more well rounded d-man than Ghost, and the Flyers cant realistically trade one of their only proven Top 4 guys before the rest of the prospects develop. In a vacuum, the value is probably close-ish, (like i said, maybe a small add from us, as Duchene is more proven, and i personally see Ghost as more of a #3 than a top pair), but the team needs arent a fit.

Not arguing that the proposed deal works; but Bigras was developing very nicely before this past season. This year he didn't win Bednar over in camp and then got banged up early in the AHL. He finished the season looking like the kid who won himself an NHL look the previous season; but on the whole it was a poor season for him. That's just 1 year though. This coming season he should secure himself an NHL gig and has the skating, smarts & skill to become a top 4 guy...if he stops letting himself get lit up.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Matt Duchene's game and speed would be perfect for the Pens at 3C.

Obviously the Avs have no need for Kessel but maybe a 3 team trade could be worked out.

Kessel for young players/picks then trade them for Duchene.

 

[Starat327]

Not arguing that the proposed deal works; but Bigras was developing very nicely before this past season. This year he didn't win Bednar over in camp and then got banged up early in the AHL. He finished the season looking like the kid who won himself an NHL look the previous season; but on the whole it was a poor season for him. That's just 1 year though. This coming season he should secure himself an NHL gig and has the skating, smarts & skill to become a top 4 guy...if he stops letting himself get lit up.

Gotcha - I apologize then - i must have been thinking of someone else. I thought I remembered reading that Avs fans had fallen off on him a bit. Maybe I'm thinking of Siemens instead?

 

[cgf]

Gotcha - I apologize then - i must have been thinking of someone else. I thought I remembered reading that Avs fans had fallen off on him a bit. Maybe I'm thinking of Siemens instead?

Some avs have grown skeptical of Bigras because of this past season and our shiny new toys; but he's still quite highly rated by most of the fanbase on here. And many have given me s*** for liking Meloche so much more than I do Bigras.

Siemens has definitely fallen off. He's become an excellent AHL shutdown dman and hasn't looked terrible in his NHL games, but injuries and his hands of stone make it hard to see him every making it as a full time NHLer...though I really hope he sticks around to be a leader in the AHL...

 

[Starat327]

Some avs have grown skeptical of Bigras because of this past season and our shiny new toys; but he's still quite highly rated by most of the fanbase on here. And many have given me s*** for liking Meloche so much more than I do Bigras.

Siemens has definitely fallen off. He's become an excellent AHL shutdown dman and hasn't looked terrible in his NHL games, but injuries and his hands of stone make it hard to see him every making it as a full time NHLer...though I really hope he sticks around to be a leader in the AHL...

Sounds like I had the prospects confused then - thanks for clarifying!

 

[ColdSteel2]

Colorado wants a LD in return.

Draft 2 of them.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

I wouldn't trade Ghost at all unless the Flyers got a ridiculous return. The Flyers can't afford to give up one of their only 3 proven defensemen.

It makes a trade hard between Colorado and Philadelphia because Philadelphia only has 3 proven NHL defensemen in their top 4.

Colorado is asking for a 4 top defensemen in return for Duchene or so I've heard.

Provorov is about as untouchable as it gets for the Flyers, and the only other proven d-man besides Ghost is Radko Gudas.

I don't know if Colorado would have any interest in Gudas over Ghost.

Counter offer:

To C Matt Duchene and Colorado's 5th round pick in 2018

For

To RD Radko Gudas, RW Matt Read, RD Mark Friedman and Philadelphia's 1st round pick in 2019

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It makes a trade hard between Colorado and Philadelphia because Philadelphia only has 3 proven NHL defensemen in their top 4.

Colorado is asking for a 4 top defensemen in return for Duchene or so I've heard, so it's doesn't make Colorado and philly good trading partners.

Provorov is about as untouchable as it gets for the Flyers, and the only other proven d-man besides Ghost is Radko Gudas.

I don't know if Colorado would have any interest in Gudas over Ghost.

Gudas is a good 2nd pairing guy, but I'm not giving up Duchene for him without some big adds. He's also a little older than the Avs need, and will be 30+ before guys like Mack, Rantanen and Jost are in their primes. At this point, I think the prudent course of action is to keep Duchene. If the Avs suck again, and lose the lottery again, maybe 4OA gets McIsaac, or Duchene + 4OA moves up for Dahlin.

 

[pockets]

It makes a trade hard between Colorado and Philadelphia because Philadelphia only has 3 proven NHL defensemen in their top 4.

Colorado is asking for a 4 top defensemen in return for Duchene or so I've heard.

Provorov is about as untouchable as it gets for the Flyers, and the only other proven d-man besides Ghost is Radko Gudas.

I don't know if Colorado would have any interest in Gudas over Ghost.

Counter offer:

To C Matt Duchene and Colorado's 5th round pick in 2018

For

To RD Radko Gudas, RW Matt Read, RD Mark Friedman and Philadelphia's 1st round pick in 2019

Avs need a LD, already have Barrie & Johnson at RD plus their greatest position of prospect depth is RD.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Gudas is a good 2nd pairing guy, but I'm not giving up Duchene for him without some big adds. He's also a little older than the Avs need, and will be 30+ before guys like Mack, Rantanen and Jost are in their primes. At this point, I think the prudent course of action is to keep Duchene. If the Avs suck again, and lose the lottery again, maybe 4OA gets McIsaac, or Duchene + 4OA moves up for Dahlin.

If Colorado finishes dead last again and gets 4th overall again, I would be angry for Colorado's fan base.
The draft lottery needs to be fixed so only the last 4 teams have a chance to win 1st overall.

Sakic screwed himself when he made Duchene's asking price public.
Joe didn't play he's cards right and isn't going to get the return he wants for Duchene.
Matt is probably going to play out his contract and then sign as a free agent.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Avs need a LD, already have Barrie & Johnson at RD plus their greatest position of prospect depth is RD.

That's one of the reasons why I don't believe a deal can be made between COL and PHI. Plus philly only has 3 proven NHL d-men at this point anyhow. Just kicking rocks in the summertime.

No deal between both sides as to the two Flyers - Avalanche proposals from me.

 

[Bender]

If Colorado finishes dead last again and gets 4th overall again, I would be angry for Colorado's fan base.
The draft lottery needs to be fixed so only the last 4 teams have a chance to win 1st overall.

Sakic screwed himself when he made Duchene's asking price public.
Joe didn't play he's cards right and isn't going to get the return he wants for Duchene.
Matt is probably going to play out his contract and then sign as a free agent.

To be fair, Joe Sakic never made the asking price public. It's the media who said stuff like "the asking price is believed to be very high, like 3 or 4 high end pieces". Sakic never, EVER mentioned that specifically...he just keeps saying that if there are moves that can be made to improve the team, they'll look at it.

The information is coming from whoever is on the other side of the phone and that certainly doesn't mean it isn't subject to being skewed to show their side more favorably.

Yeah, sure...that's what's going to happen.

 

[CBJx614]

I still think Columbus makes the most sense.

If someone else doesn't blow Sakic off of his feet I could see Columbus making a move for him if player's like PLD and Wennnerg don't step up.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Jeff Skinner isn't elite but the great thing about him is you can put him with any linemates and he will pot 25 a season.

And until Mid Dec 2016 Duchene could be counted on hit 55+ points.

You put these guys with the right linemates with good chemistry, and Skinner is a 35+ goal scorer, Duchene a 65+ point producer.

25 goals and 55 points is good, but that's not their ceiling.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Or GM's are smart enough to understand that even good players can have bad numbers on really bad teams, right? Surely this isn't a first.

For the record, I'm not an Avs fan, nor do I know what Duchene is worth, I just think looking at 1 bad season on a really bad team and saying "See, he's not worth much" is kind of silly. I highly doubt GM's think this way.

GMs also have to recognize why a team was bad and what function it was of the players. So sure, a bad team can drive down a player's stats. But a player putting up poor stats can contribute to a team being bad.

 

[cgf]

Sounds like I had the prospects confused then - thanks for clarifying!

Happens to the best of us with other teams' prospects, cheers.

Draft 2 of them.

That's what I want. Trade Duchene (retained) for the Islanders firsts, Bellows, a cap dump, and ideally a 2nd as well; knowing we're gunna suck again next year. Then next spring we can use our first + one of those 1sts to trade up for McIsaac if necessary, pick D'Andre Miller with a later first; trade Barrie for picks or a forward at some point; and patiently invest in developing all of that young defensive talent until we are the next Carolina / Philadelphia with:

McIsaac - Makar
Zadorov - Meloche
Bigras - Timmins
Miller

That's two top pairing / potential #1 prospects; two #2-3 prospects; three #3-4 prospects; and a few bottom pairing prospects...two of whom are going to be on the team next year (Mironov & Lindholm)...if we can't turn that lot into a strength; we'll never have an NHL caliber defense.

 

[Crede777]

GMs also have to recognize why a team was bad and what function it was of the players. So sure, a bad team can drive down a player's stats. But a player putting up poor stats can contribute to a team being bad.

The amount of contribution a player has to team success varies by player, though. For instance, a player who is expected to play in a top-6 center role and on the top powerplay unit has a disproportionately large impact on the team's overall offensive output.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The amount of contribution a player has to team success varies by player, though. For instance, a player who is expected to play in a top-6 center role and on the top powerplay unit has a disproportionately large impact on the team's overall offensive output.

Of course. That's what I'm saying the GM has to do.

 

[kmo429]

Happens to the best of us with other teams' prospects, cheers.



That's what I want. Trade Duchene (retained) for the Islanders firsts, Bellows, a cap dump, and ideally a 2nd as well; knowing we're gunna suck again next year. Then next spring we can use our first + one of those 1sts to trade up for McIsaac if necessary, pick D'Andre Miller with a later first; trade Barrie for picks or a forward at some point; and patiently invest in developing all of that young defensive talent until we are the next Carolina / Philadelphia with:

McIsaac - Makar
Zadorov - Meloche
Bigras - Timmins
Miller

That's two top pairing / potential #1 prospects; two #2-3 prospects; three #3-4 prospects; and a few bottom pairing prospects...two of whom are going to be on the team next year (Mironov & Lindholm)...if we can't turn that lot into a strength; we'll never have an NHL caliber defense.

Isles would not trade 2 first AND Bellows. That's essentially 3 1sts. Bellows, 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, cap dump is fine. Add the 2nd first and the value is slanted dramatically in Avs' favor.

 

[cgf]

Isles would not trade 2 first AND Bellows. That's essentially 3 1sts. Bellows, 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, cap dump is fine. Add the 2nd first and the value is slanted dramatically in Avs' favor.

Joe won't settle for what I proposed; so there's little chance he'd take that. Hell it doesn't seem like he'd take the 1sts & Beauvillier. And even if I was Joe I would just hold onto Duchene for another year if we can't even get two 1sts and a good but not blue chip prospect like Bellows.

 

[Monk]

Of course. That's what I'm saying the GM has to do.

Seems like a pretty important job.

 

[Riseonfire]

Joe won't settle for what I proposed; so there's little chance he'd take that. Hell it doesn't seem like he'd take the 1sts & Beauvillier. And even if I was Joe I would just hold onto Duchene for another year if we can't even get two 1sts and a good but not blue chip prospect like Bellows.

What Cap-Era Rental has ever returned that much?

Just re-read it, sounds like your saying that return for NOW, not after another year.

 

[Fatass]

Joe won't settle for what I proposed; so there's little chance he'd take that. Hell it doesn't seem like he'd take the 1sts & Beauvillier. And even if I was Joe I would just hold onto Duchene for another year if we can't even get two 1sts and a good but not blue chip prospect like Bellows.

Maybe a 21 year old Duchene could return that much but (sorry Av's fans) Matt is not worth anywhere near that now. Likely, if he is even traded, he returns a 2nd paring 25+ Dman. Or Joe will have to settle for a collection of lesser picks ( second and thirds).