Speculation: Matt Duchene Megathread pt2 - All News/Proposals Go Here

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So,only even strength point count? Why does the scoreboard count all goals the same? Duchene doesn't come close to Backstrom, Carter, Johansen and Carter.

Well, to be fair,

1) ~77% of all goals scored last year in the NHL were even strength goals.

2) Majority (85%?) of the game is spent at ES.

3) PP points are greatly influenced by the level of talent on the team. In 2009/10 the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 21 PP points. In 13/14, again, the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 17 PP points. I'm not suggesting that Duchene is on par from a playmaking ability as Backstrom is, but it's a lot easier to rack up PP points when you are playing with a guy that scores 20 PPG / season.

 

[Frenchy]

Danault + 1st 18 + Juulsen + Scherbak/Bitten

Younger center coming off a 40 pts season + 1st round pick in a deep draft + a very good defensive prospect (was named in the WHL's 1st all-star team) + prospect with high potential

Remove Danault, and that should be the deal.

I doubt the Avs would be interested in Danault, he's not really a sexy pick for most of the NHL teams. His value is probably higher for the Habs that it is for the rest of the teams

 

[Starat327]

So,only even strength point count? Why does the scoreboard count all goals the same? Duchene doesn't come close to Backstrom, Carter, Johansen and Carter.

People were attempting to say he doesnt drive the line. I'm curious what you are using to make that statement when comparing him to these other players. Because if you remove PP points (where there is no 'driving the line', only being a PPQB -Which Duchene dcefinitely isnt) he scores more than those players, which would indicate to me that he can actually drive the line and game more than those players when the game is played most, thats all.

For what its worth - im firmly of the camp that all points count equally. I have to be, since the only time my team can score is on the PP. But to say he doesnt drive a line like playerz x,y,and z when he outscores them at the times where you have to do the heaviest lifting just seems like bs to me.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

I doubt the Avs would be interested in Danault, he's not really a sexy pick for most of the NHL teams. His value is probably higher for the Habs that it is for the rest of the teams

A young LHD would be better, in my opinion.

 

[Starat327]

I think I'd had to consider a Ghost a good starting point, but I don't like any of the other pieces offered. Plus we basically have our own version of Ghost in Barrie so we'd probably have to look for another trade involving Barrie as to not get redundant.

What about something a little larger like say:

Gostisbehere+Konecny+1st for Duchene+Bigras+rights to Will Butcher

Philly gets the best player in the deal in Duchene and a NHL ready 3rd pairing capable with 2nd pairing upside prospect in Bigras plus the rights to the Hobey Baker winner. Avs get a decent LHD in Gostisbehere, young middle 6 winger in Konecny that would fit with our young core and a 1st.

Ghost isnt far off from Duchene value wise, and Brigras, by accounts of Avs fans on this site, is a reach to be anything more than a bottom pairing D man at this point. (He also does nothing for what is one of the best prospect D pools in the league).

The difference between the two certainly isn't Konecny, if there is one at all, and it most definitely doesnt include a 1st.

Ghost and Flyers 2nd at most for Duchene, the other parts don't need to be included. And even then, I don't think I'd do it. I get that Colorado needs to have an incentive to move him, but i'm just not sure I'd be willing to do more than Ghost with a late round pick.

 

[cgf]

Remove Danault, and that should be the deal.

That's a very kind offer for Soderberg

People were attempting to say he doesnt drive the line. I'm curious what you are using to make that statement when comparing him to these other players. Because if you remove PP points (where there is no 'driving the line', only being a PPQB -Which Duchene dcefinitely isnt) he scores more than those players, which would indicate to me that he can actually drive the line and game more than those players when the game is played most, thats all.

For what its worth - im firmly of the camp that all points count equally. I have to be, since the only time my team can score is on the PP. But to say he doesnt drive a line like playerz x,y,and z when he outscores them at the times where you have to do the heaviest lifting just seems like bs to me.

Just wanna thank you on behalf of avs fans for fighting the good fight with regards to Duchene.

Brigras, by accounts of Avs fans on this site, is a reach to be anything more than a bottom pairing D man at this point.

Which Avs fans have you been talking to about Bigras? The kid needs to do a better job of protecting himself because he's too willing to take a hit to make a play; but he's absolutely a top 4 prospect. You don't skate that well, with that hockey IQ and skillset, without having realistic top 4 potential. Bigras was voted in the top 5 of our prospect pool (which is now comfortably top 10) and got a good # of votes for 3rd behind Makar & Jost.

 

[wintersej]

I'm not sure why Colorado would want Ghost and Barrie.

 

[Fatass]

Well, to be fair,

1) ~77% of all goals scored last year in the NHL were even strength goals.

2) Majority (85%?) of the game is spent at ES.

3) PP points are greatly influenced by the level of talent on the team. In 2009/10 the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 21 PP points. In 13/14, again, the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 17 PP points. I'm not suggesting that Duchene is on par from a playmaking ability as Backstrom is, but it's a lot easier to rack up PP points when you are playing with a guy that scores 20 PPG / season.

Doesn't Duchene play first unit PP with McKinnon?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Doesn't Duchene play first unit PP with McKinnon?

MacKinnon had 2 PPG this year (and never more than 8). He's not in the same stratosphere as guys like Ovi. That aside, the team has been pretty bad and without a lot of skill, both ES and PP overall so it's not surprising he hasn't had much success on the PP.

For example, look at Kadri. The Leafs have stunk and didn't have much talent and Kadri was putting up 3-4 goals on the PP the prior two seasons. In steps a new coach, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Zaitsev join the team and low and behold, the Leafs have one of the best PP units in the league and Kadri scores 12 PP goals.

 

[Fatass]

MacKinnon had 2 PPG this year (and never more than 8). He's not in the same stratosphere as guys like Ovi. That aside, the team has been pretty bad and without a lot of skill, both ES and PP overall so it's not surprising he hasn't had much success on the PP.

For example, look at Kadri. The Leafs have stunk and didn't have much talent and Kadri was putting up 3-4 goals on the PP the prior two seasons. In steps a new coach, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Zaitsev join the team and low and behold, the Leafs have one of the best PP units in the league and Kadri scores 12 PP goals.

I thought the Avs were stocked with offence, and needed to get better on defence. Maybe Mackinnon's numbers are a function of Duchene, and not the other way round?

 

[Fugazy]

38 pages on Matt Duchene

 

[Cousin Eddie]

38 pages on Matt Duchene

It blows my mind that people on here don't have the settings changed to 50 posts per page.

 

[Hello Johnny]

If you're feeling in a gambling mood and don't like the Hawks chances.


Matt Duchene 50% retained


2018 and 2019 1st CHI (*Colorado choice)
*You get to take one outright and other you have to swap the Avs 2nd for it.

2 extra 1sts in the best drafts in a long time, possibly from a non-playoff team or early out.

2015 already has 24/30 first rounders to play in the league, not to mention plenty of players later in the draft. You're not getting a top 6 center at half the cost with this argument.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I thought the Avs were stocked with offence, and needed to get better on defence. Maybe Mackinnon's numbers are a function of Duchene, and not the other way round?

If you include prospects, the Avs look good up front. If one of Greer/Jost/Compher can replace Rene Bourque in the top 6, and Andrighetto continues to play well with Mack and Rantanen, the Avs should be better offensively next season. Over the next 2-3 years, the top 9 should get filled out with prospects, and the top 6 should get better as Mack, Rantanen, Jost, Landeskog, etc. mature and enter their primes.

Before this last draft, the Avs D prospects were thin. The RHD group looks good now, but LHD is still in dire need of talent and depth.

As for Mack, his point totals are a function of the team. He contributed to 32% of the team's goals, but the team only scored 165. If he can continue driving the offense, and they score 220 (20th in team scoring last year) he's likely a 70+ point player. He definitely has the skills, but it's hard to show them when passing the puck to a linemates like Iginla or Bourque results in a turnover and then the team struggles to get the puck out of the defensive zone for 3+ minutes.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Well, to be fair,

1) ~77% of all goals scored last year in the NHL were even strength goals.

2) Majority (85%?) of the game is spent at ES.

3) PP points are greatly influenced by the level of talent on the team. In 2009/10 the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 21 PP points. In 13/14, again, the Avs were a playoff team and Duchene had 17 PP points. I'm not suggesting that Duchene is on par from a playmaking ability as Backstrom is, but it's a lot easier to rack up PP points when you are playing with a guy that scores 20 PPG / season.

It's interesting that you see that they have no talent on the power play. When I watched them it's been MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie and Rantenen. If there's no talent then why does this thread contain so many posts about how valuable the first four are?

People can't have it both ways; either each of these guys are worth a lot because they are so talented or they aren't worth much because they are bad players. Which is it?

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Ghost isnt far off from Duchene value wise, and Brigras, by accounts of Avs fans on this site, is a reach to be anything more than a bottom pairing D man at this point. (He also does nothing for what is one of the best prospect D pools in the league).

The difference between the two certainly isn't Konecny, if there is one at all, and it most definitely doesnt include a 1st.

Ghost and Flyers 2nd at most for Duchene, the other parts don't need to be included. And even then, I don't think I'd do it. I get that Colorado needs to have an incentive to move him, but i'm just not sure I'd be willing to do more than Ghost with a late round pick.

I wouldn't trade Ghost at all unless the Flyers got a ridiculous return. The Flyers can't afford to give up one of their only 3 proven defensemen.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I thought the Avs were stocked with offence, and needed to get better on defence. Maybe Mackinnon's numbers are a function of Duchene, and not the other way round?

You thought wrong, or you are purposely being sarcastic. The Avs had an NHL worst 165 goals. I don't think anybody's numbers are a function of any one player. I think it's a case where they had no depth and not enough NHL talent. Let's say Duchene has a career year and instead of 18 goals, had 31 goals. The Avs STILL would have had least amount of goals scored in the NHL. They have some good, young prospects, but that doesn't help last season.

 

[Pacman33]

It's interesting that you see that they have no talent on the power play. When I watched them it's been MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie and Rantenen. If there's no talent then why does this thread contain so many posts about how valuable the first four are?

People can't have it both ways; either each of these guys are worth a lot because they are so talented or they aren't worth much because they are bad players. Which is it?

Those guys are all talented but powerplays are more than just talent. Colorados pp is way too predictable. Before the iginla trade it was everybody just pass it to iginla in the slot for the past 1.5 years. If we put mack in that spot then it might work but iginla didnt have the shot he used to. Also for some reason barrie just isnt great on the pp. Contrary to non avs fans beliefs, hes not at all a pp specialist. Much better putting up points even strength. This year will be a much better view of avs pp capabilities. We got rid of guy that runs our pp and hired the man who has run the blues pp. We finally will have a competent coach to game plan

 

[Fatass]

You thought wrong, or you are purposely being sarcastic. The Avs had an NHL worst 165 goals. I don't think anybody's numbers are a function of any one player. I think it's a case where they had no depth and not enough NHL talent. Let's say Duchene has a career year and instead of 18 goals, had 31 goals. The Avs STILL would have had least amount of goals scored in the NHL. They have some good, young prospects, but that doesn't help last season.

Maybe with all theses negatives about offence the value of Duchene is less than what he's truly worth?

 

[Starat327]

That's a very kind offer for Soderberg



Just wanna thank you on behalf of avs fans for fighting the good fight with regards to Duchene.



Which Avs fans have you been talking to about Bigras? The kid needs to do a better job of protecting himself because he's too willing to take a hit to make a play; but he's absolutely a top 4 prospect. You don't skate that well, with that hockey IQ and skillset, without having realistic top 4 potential. Bigras was voted in the top 5 of our prospect pool (which is now comfortably top 10) and got a good # of votes for 3rd behind Makar & Jost.

I'm not sure of the posters - maybe ive mistaken him with someone else, win which case I apologize for mis-speaking. I thought i remembered a few fans saying he hadnt developed properly, but that may be because of the injuries, now that i think about it. Those would also concerning for us, given we have Myers who has similar issues.

That said, the proposed deal still doesnt work. I imagine Colorado would want a more well rounded d-man than Ghost, and the Flyers cant realistically trade one of their only proven Top 4 guys before the rest of the prospects develop. In a vacuum, the value is probably close-ish, (like i said, maybe a small add from us, as Duchene is more proven, and i personally see Ghost as more of a #3 than a top pair), but the team needs arent a fit.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's interesting that you see that they have no talent on the power play. When I watched them it's been MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie and Rantenen. If there's no talent then why does this thread contain so many posts about how valuable the first four are?

I didn't say "no talent", but (a) it's not on the level of some of the talent other teams play with and (b) you seem to ignore that guys can have off years. Rantanen is good, but in his first season and not exactly an elite talent yet. Landeskog and MacKinnon and Duchene had poor seasons on the PP. If you don't think that type of stuff affects point totals, then I don't know what to tell you.

People can't have it both ways; either each of these guys are worth a lot because they are so talented or they aren't worth much because they are bad players. Which is it?

Do you really think it's that black and white and do you really base players worth off of 1 season? I know GM's don't. Guys have off years, especially on bad teams, it happens. Jeff Skinner, from my team, is a perfect example. 2 years ago, people were saying he was worthless because he had 18 goals, 31 points. We Canes fans were trying to tell people that it was just a bad season as he had 33Goals the season prior, but no, people only wanted to focus on "31 points for $6M" and calling him a cap dump. The team improved and Skinner bounced back. To GM's, one bad season doesn't significantly decrease the value of a player and IMO, that's the case with Duchene.

If he has another bad season, then sure, but right now, I think GMs look at the mess of a team he was on, the circumstances, etc..and don't see a guy who's value has dropped much, if at all.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe with all theses negatives about offence the value of Duchene is less than what he's truly worth?

Or GM's are smart enough to understand that even good players can have bad numbers on really bad teams, right? Surely this isn't a first.

For the record, I'm not an Avs fan, nor do I know what Duchene is worth, I just think looking at 1 bad season on a really bad team and saying "See, he's not worth much" is kind of silly. I highly doubt GM's think this way.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I thought the Avs were stocked with offence, and needed to get better on defence. Maybe Mackinnon's numbers are a function of Duchene, and not the other way round?

Everyone's numbers are a function of Army's (assist coach who we finally let go this summer) God aweful PP. No creativity. No versatility. Not putting guys in the proper spot. The guy was terrible at putting together a PP.

 

[Stickpucker]

Why are those the only two options? Crosby, McDavid and Kane are basically the only forwards in the league who can do what they do regardless of who they play with.

The linemate excuse is a joke though. Duchene is his own worst enemy.

Jeff Skinner isn't elite but the great thing about him is you can put him with any linemates and he will pot 25 a season.

 

[Stickpucker]

The point was that the package for Duchene after all this holding out wasn't going to be one like that. Sakic's either going to get something close to what he's been asking for, or he's going to start the year with Duchene in the lineup. We aren't trying to run Matt out of town - I would bet they really wish they didn't have to trade a guy like him but they see it as the first step to fixing a lot of problems with the team.

Like the un