Is it:
1) a 20-24 year old top pairing defenseman;
2) 20-24 year old defenseman with top pair potential that the Avs want; or
3) 20-24 year old defensemen who's shown something at NHL level with top-pair potential?
that the Avs want?
Because I wouldn't trade (1) for Duchene straight up, let alone add a 1st + top prospect. And, while I would trade (3) straight up for Duchene, I'm not certain I'd add an awful lot to it tbh.
The Avs are not going to get a 20-24 year old NHL top pairing D in return. We are smart enough to realize that. The only one that might have fit the bill is Faulk and he is not going to get traded.
What we want however is a guy that has a good chance of turning into a legit top pairing caliber guy. Not a guy that might have a chance if everything goes well. We want a guy that is a decent bet to turn into one. Guys like Sergachev/Chychrun/McAvoy/Chabot/Hanifin/etc would obviously be the guys we would target.
Depending on how much risk is involved with the individual prospect and how close they are to the NHL, we would want picks and prospects added to mitigate the risk.
So I personally would do Hanifin + 2nd for Duchene. Probably even straight up but Hanifin is not having a good season so I think a 2nd is not too much to ask.
I would want a 1st + good prospect + Sergachev from MTL because he is more of a long shot....
If we can't get one of those, I would want overpayment in a package deal return and a lesser D prospect like Fabbro would have to be involved or a lesser NHL Dman like Murray (with a heavy + added).
We will see what happens but I really don't think Duchene should move otherwise.
The Isles simply would have to extremely overpay IMO for me to consider it because you simply do not have anyone that would fit that bill. That makes a trade very difficult.
And if we believe Dreger it is also one of the main obstacles and reasons why this won't happen...