Blue Jays Discussion: Martin, Donaldson .. What Else Is Up Your Sleeve AA? (hint: it's Saunders)

[zeke]

He'd be another great innings eater. Haven't heard much about where he's rumored to go. I'd be interested, for sure. But his 2nd half was troublesome.

Shields is a stud....and his problems were actually in the first half, not the 2nd half.

1st Half: 130.2ip, 3.65era, 3.74fip, 3.51xfip
2nd Half: 96.1ip, 2.62era, 3.38fip, 3.62xfip


IMO, if you can get him for less than 5 years, Shields will be the best SP signing of the offseason for whoever gets him. If he gets up to 5-6 years, then maybe not.

 

[Woodman19]

Lots of mileage on that arm though, Buyer beware.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

If you can get James Shields at $10 to $12 million over a 3, maybe 4, year deal, I'd jump at that opportunity even if his arm might fall off.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yeah, do 3/40 for Shields.

I don't believe this 10M left in avail payroll number

Well if Shields is signed, you'd have to think that another started is moved out which opens up more payroll - ideally one of Dickey (Thole included) or Buerhle, but Happ as well

 

[Woodman19]

You guys are out to lunch if you think Shields will only fetch 10-12 a year.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

You guys are out to lunch if you think Shields will only fetch 10-12 a year.

I don't know why people think he would get that little. Practically every team would jump at that deal if it were true.

 

[Woodman19]

I don't know why people think he would get that little. Practically every team would jump at that deal if it were true.

It is 12:30, so I guess it explains people being out to lunch.

 

[Longshot]

AA was pretty adamant on the radio last night that he doesn't anticipate moving a starting pitcher.

I took that to mean that Dioner is on his way out to free up salary money. I can't see the Jays carrying three catchers and I don't buy the "Dioner to DH" idea. I think the Jays want to have multiple players to rotate through the DH position.

 

[p.l.f.]

Happ doesn't want to be a reliever i seem to recall
I can't see a good arm like Hutchison going into the bullpen, well you never know

Shields
Stroman
Dickey
Buerhle
Happ

---
Sanchez
Cecil
Loup
Hutchison

 

[Woodman19]

Really warming to the idea of signing Volquez for the pen. His Groundball rates are good and he already has good velocity and stuff.

 

[zeke]

You guys are out to lunch if you think Shields will only fetch 10-12 a year.

I'm thinking 4 x $20m might get it done. But he'll want a 5th year pretty badly.

 

[Mach85]

Lots of mileage on that arm though, Buyer beware.

This. He's been extraordinarily healthy so far in his career. That won't continue forever (see Arroyo, Bronson). Question is: does it happen sooner or later?

 

[Scion]

I'm not high on Markakis, because it seems like if Baltimore wanted him back he'd be back, and they know way more about him than anyone else.

It's not that Baltimore doesn't want Markakis back, they just don't want to commit to a four year term.

Lots of mileage on that arm though, Buyer beware.

Mileage is acually more predictive of longevity than injury over a large sample size because it shows that a pitcher is durable and can handle a heavy work load.

 

[Puckstuff]

Dickey and Thole out = 14 million

Keep Navarro sign Shields = 25 million.

 

[Puckstuff]

I compiled a list of Free Agent starters who should not be highly sought after but have velocity 90+ and at least 6.5K/9 stuff (with at least ok command, decent GB%, etc) who we could switch to the pen to increase velocity and stuff and possibly find a few decent relievers this way.

Gavin Floyd
Franklin Morales
Joe Saunders
Kevin Slowey
Edinson Volquez

Would be a nice pick up at 8 million.

 

[Woodman19]

Would be a nice pick up at 8 million.

He could be a comparatively cheaper and short term alternative to Robertson and Miller for the back of the pen. I believe he likes Martin too which could convince him to come here in a reliever role.

 

[Puckstuff]

He could be a comparatively cheaper and short term alternative to Robertson and Miller for the back of the pen.

I think if you acquire Volquez you have to have him in the rotation to begin the year... Then you can very comfortably put Sanchez in the bullpen in a setup/closer role - something I've been against thus far but would be open too

 

[zeke]

To put our starting pitching in perspective....

Nolin and Graveman are likely starting for a good team like Oakland this year.

And they wouldn't have even cracked our rotation.

 

[hockeywiz542]

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Nick Markakis, who seemed for a while to be a pretty good bet to return to the Orioles, is listening to outside offers now and said to have interest from the Braves, Blue Jays and Giants, among others.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...braves-blue-jays-giants-os-among-those-in-mix

Veteran outfielder Nick Markakis, who seemed for a while to be a pretty good bet to return to the Orioles, is listening to outside offers now and said to have interest from the Braves, Blue Jays and Giants, among others.

Atlanta is an interesting entry since Markakis grew up in Woodstock, Ga., went to Young Harris College and has a home in Georgia (as he does in Maryland). The Braves traded right fielder Jason Heyward and are listening to offers for another top outfielder, Justin Upton, so there definitely is room for Markakis.

Toronto has been lurking for a while, as it hopes to add at least one outfielder, with Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus both free agents.

San Francisco could go a number of different ways, and its participation may depend to some degree on what star free agent starter Jon Lester, who had a visit with Giants brass Monday, decides. Some suggest Markakis may be more likely to stay east -- though at one point Baltimore seemed almost like a forgone conclusion, and it's not now.

Markakis appeared to be in fairly serious talks to return to the Orioles back at the GM Meetings, which came as no surprise since he has an excellent relationship with owner Peter Angelos, manager Buck Showalter and others there. However, the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reported Monday that the chances for the sides to remain together are "less than 50-50" at this point.

The Orioles remain interested, but the sides obviously still have a lot of work to do to complete a deal that seemed natural. The sides were discussing a four-year deal at one point, but it isn't known where things stand now.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Well Melky's as good as gone, so Markakis would help bring some power back for sure.

Still think AA should be focusing more on that bullpen though.

 

[Bluejaysfan*]

er....

Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al 21m21 minutes ago
Sources tell @FrankBostonTank and I that the Blue Jays have serious interest in James Shields and will submit an offer

please let this happen...

 

[TootooTrain]

To put our starting pitching in perspective....

Nolin and Graveman are likely starting for a good team like Oakland this year.

And they wouldn't have even cracked our rotation.

Didn't they run into a rash of injuries with their rotation last season? Griffin and another who's name I can't think of. Gray/Shark(or his lesser trade replacement)/Kazmir/Pomeranz without those guys coming back. Doesn't include Chavez who had a great year but will likely be a swing man. I could see Nolin getting a shot. Graveman is a stretch.

 

[Mach85]

To put our starting pitching in perspective....

Nolin and Graveman are likely starting for a good team like Oakland this year.

And they wouldn't have even cracked our rotation.

The A's have a deeper rotation than we do: Shark, Gray, Kazmir, Chavez, Pomeranz, Griffin, Parker. Nolin and Graveman have more value in Oakland than here because of ballpark effects. Look at Tommy Milone from last year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Ok you quoted a couple of advance stats to say why not.

So how would him impact defensively in LF instead of RF? How does he stack up to all LF's in baseball?

You quote 2 hitting stats but I go and look at his standard hitting stats and they all point to solid numbers across the board and pretty consistent which is what you ask for.

How does his numbers shake out in the Jays lineup say if he was hitting #2 before Jose instead of Manny Machado who in his own right is pretty good but not on Jose level yet.

The thing with quote advance stats is that is all past stats and no way able to predict the future since there are so many new variables in place such as new home ballpark, new batting order, new leagues in some cases, new team which can't be measured.

Also you can't say well he is league average so you shouldn't overpay him....that is not how FA works there is a market set by players and then all other players fall into place. If a team wants to overpay for 1 player then that skews the whole system as you see in hockey with a cap system.

Look I get it's easy to use advance stats to make an argument for or against a player but again when you factor in all parts of a decision why a player is good or bad for the team it goes beyond looking at a spreadsheet to say yea or nay. Look at Martin's signing that goes way beyond what stats say it's a cultural signing as well to change a clubhouse atmosphere and work with young pitchers.

The only way to prove either scenario is for him to sign here and then he can be judged by his contributions on and off the field.

Those two metrics are as predictive as they are representative. And his steamer projections fall right in line with them. He'll be league average unless his legs somehow bounce back playing on the hallowed Rogers Centre turf.

He was hitting in front of Machado as much as he was Steve Pearce, Baltimore's best hitter in 2014.

And my defensive evaluation comes from watching 12 or so games at Camden and another hand full on the wretched MASN network. He was once a quality defender, but his legs are gone. Not quite Allen Craig gone, but there's not much there. The arm is great, but I'm not sure it's as valuable in LF as it is in RF.

Wouldn't mind him at $8m aav, but he'll likely get more. No thanks.

 

[p.l.f.]

Smoak might actually be a decent fit as lefty DH because we don't have a LH homer type hitter otherwise, who could cash in big time with all the guys we could get on base in front of him - Rasmus was that and helped when he had one of his homer binge weeks