Marner, Rantanen, Pastrnak, Kaprizov or Robertson?

[Buck Naked]

Why does everyone always go directly to stats and completely disregard the 200ft game. If he's too busy opening chances and playing defense and changing the pace of the game, while the stars on the other team are too busy scoring and being the star instead of the star/the grunt grind, of course some are gonna have more points than him. Those things have no metrics.

They do. A strong defensive game is reflective in statistic. I asked earlier if anyone would care to post some things that shows that Marner stands out, only because I was curious since it's always easy to tell by looking at Bergeron's stats for example. I made a post just an hour ago showing that in terms of high danger chances against, Marner looks awful while several other of the "usual" great defensive players looks great. Why is that you think?

 

[Golden_Jet]

They do. A strong defensive game is reflective in statistic. I asked earlier if anyone would care to post some things that shows that Marner stands out, only because I was curious since it's always easy to tell by looking at Bergeron's stats for example. I made a post just an hour ago showing that in terms of high danger chances against, Marner looks awful while several other of the "usual" great defensive players looks great. Why is that you think?

After reading your post , I’d thought I’d check naturalstattrick.
5 on 5, forwards only (didn’t include defence), and over 200 minutes played.

xGA/60 Marner is 103rd among forwards

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

For HDCA/60 he is 212th same criteria
Interesting that is 10th among forwards with 200 minutes on his own team, worst is Matthew’s in 11th.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

They do. A strong defensive game is reflective in statistic. I asked earlier if anyone would care to post some things that shows that Marner stands out, only because I was curious since it's always easy to tell by looking at Bergeron's stats for example. I made a post just an hour ago showing that in terms of high danger chances against, Marner looks awful while several other of the "usual" great defensive players looks great. Why is that you think?

He's not tough to play against, so I don't know how he is good defensively. Does it matter though since he hasn't stepped up in post season?

 

[Aurinko]

Kaprizov has a combination of offensive skill & versatility, good strength and speed.

Not sure if he is the best in any measurable way, but the eye test would pick him.

 

[Muffin]

Never outproduces or outdefends Marner

Except in the playoffs when it matters. All these guys are close enough that that I'm going to take the guy that has proven that he can do it in the playoffs and won a cup.

 

[RapidKnight]

They do. A strong defensive game is reflective in statistic. I asked earlier if anyone would care to post some things that shows that Marner stands out, only because I was curious since it's always easy to tell by looking at Bergeron's stats for example. I made a post just an hour ago showing that in terms of high danger chances against, Marner looks awful while several other of the "usual" great defensive players looks great. Why is that you think?

I say this passively but I think wingers in general have less control over regular chances turning into high danger chances vs total chances. High dangers chances are closer to the net and more dependent on defensemen mistakes. Obviously the contrary could be true and similar arguments could be made for regular chances but I think this definitely has an effect. I would argue wingers have more influence on chances out high. It’s probably not a coincidence the uptick in high danger chances in particular occurred when Toronto’s defense was plagued with injuries. He also received quite a bit more defensive zone faceoffs this season (many more than the other players on this list) which isn’t helping either. As far as I am aware his defensive metrics were comfortably the best last season.

 

[b in vancouver]

Why does everyone always go directly to stats and completely disregard the 200ft game. If he's too busy opening chances and playing defense and changing the pace of the game, while the stars on the other team are too busy scoring and being the star instead of the star/the grunt grind, of course some are gonna have more points than him. Those things have no metrics.

You're worried about me bringing up a quick stat - while ignoring that the poster I'm responding to used the statistic that Marner's 23 game point streak proves he's the best? Am I just supposed to accept that his stat is the only one that matters? I didn't even cherry-pick... I actually just used that posters same 23 game sample size and compared it to one of the other four's 23 game sample size.

Why didn't you quote his post to ask why he's using a statistic to say Marner's the best? Why didn't you quote the poster who pointed out the statistics about Marner's production during the calendar year?

How about that you guys are ignoring that Pastrnak is a much more physical player than Marner. Or that he scores many more goals (or does that only matter when it's Matthews?) Or that he does it playing 2 less minutes of ice-time a game? Or that he plays for a team with much more spread out scoring?

I like Marner. One of the guys I really like watching. (not a Matthews fan).
But don't quote me like I'm coming up with some obscure f***ing statistic to make Marner look worse or whatever. It's bullshit.

 

[Future]

High danger chances against he's 365th in the league among players with over 250 5v5 minutes played. For reference among some other known defensively sound players, Bergeron is 8th, Elias Lindholm 26th, Joel Eriksson Ek 33rd..

That’s a single stat in a much bigger picture. Why would you ignore the ones I posted?

Heck, his coach played him on defence at points this year. Why would he do that if he wasn't trusted defensively?

 

[dirtydanglez]

And Matthew Tkachuk.

and rantanen.

 

[Play]

I gotta say Rantanen. But there’s a couple others on the list I thought about too.

Though one, but my pick is the big Finnish winger

 

[danpantz]

1 canadian
1 american
1 Russain
1 chzech
And a fin

The united nations of elite wingers

 

[um]

Robertson this season, Marner regular season, Rantanen playoffs, Pastrnak peak

I think you only get one vote

 

[bsu]

Since it says "right now" it's Robertson.

 

[Buck Naked]

He's not tough to play against, so I don't know how he is good defensively. Does it matter though since he hasn't stepped up in post season?

The regular season sample size is large enough to show that Marner is an elite player.

I say this passively but I think wingers in general have less control over regular chances turning into high danger chances vs total chances. High dangers chances are closer to the net and more dependent on defensemen mistakes. Obviously the contrary could be true and similar arguments could be made for regular chances but I think this definitely has an effect. I would argue wingers have more influence on chances out high. It’s probably not a coincidence the uptick in high danger chances in particular occurred when Toronto’s defense was plagued with injuries. He also received quite a bit more defensive zone faceoffs this season (many more than the other players on this list) which isn’t helping either. As far as I am aware his defensive metrics were comfortably the best last season.

Sure, there might be some truth to that, even though wingers play a huge part in not allowing the other team to reach the slot. But I see your point. What could be used then?

That’s a single stat in a much bigger picture. Why would you ignore the ones I posted?

Heck, his coach played him on defence at points this year. Why would he do that if he wasn't trusted defensively?

xGF on the PK tells a very tiny story about Toronto creating chances. Sure, that's great that they're a threat and I'm 100% sure that Marner plays a huge part in that! It's not what I asked about though. Michael Grabner was a bitch to play against on the PK because he could break away like nobody's business. He was a great PKer but not viewed as an elite defensive forward. I'm just asking for a single stat, or a combination of several, that shows that Marner is an elite defensive forward 5v5.

There could be plenty of reasons as to why Marner was trusted as a D for a short stint during the season. I'm thinking his playmaking skills played a huge part in that. He's an excellent passer and can transport the puck.

 

[ThatGuy22]

It's Kaprizov. And it's pretty easy to tell why. He keeps up with this group that plays with Mathews, MacKinnon, Bergeron and Hintz.

He's had a different main 1C every year so far. Here is who they are.

Sam Steel... not given a qualifying offer by the current worst team in the league.

Ryan Hartman... career 4th liner he turned into a 60 point player.

Viktor Rask... traded for nothing the next year, in Switzerland the year after.


He does have a decent opposite side wing, who in his prime was a 60 point player... he's turned him into a PPG player as he hits 35...

Come on.

 

[BadBruins]

It's Kaprizov. And it's pretty easy to tell why. He keeps up with this group that plays with Mathews, MacKinnon, Bergeron and Hintz.

He's had a different main 1C every year so far. Here is who they are.

Sam Steel... not given a qualifying offer by the current worst team in the league.

Ryan Hartman... career 4th liner he turned into a 60 point player.

Viktor Rask... traded for nothing the next year, in Switzerland the year after.


He does have a decent opposite side wing, who in his prime was a 60 point player... he's turned him into a PPG player as he hits 35...

Come on.

Pastrnak's most common C last year was Erik Haula. This year it's been David Krejci and Pavel Zacha. They moved him away from Bergeron and Marchand in the new year of last season. His numbers went up. He has 51 goals in 74 games since that point. He's proven that he drives the play and offense no matter who he's paired with.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Kaprizov would put up 150 pts a year if he didn't play with two 4th line scrubs.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Kaprizov. and I think it’s a bit of a gap between him and Rantanen. Then another gap between Rantanen and the rest.

 

[BB88]

Robertson higher point and goal total
Marner for his point streak

It's very much bias for recency

& I just thought Rants won a Cup while being +g for playoffs(and for his career)

 

[WetcoastOrca]

For right now I’m not sure how you don’t vote for the player on a 22 game point scoring streak

Because the question isn’t who has the longest point streak.
The question is who is the best.
And despite many Leaf fans claiming Marner is elite defensively the 5 vs 5 stats don’t appear to back that up.
I went Robertson as he’s having the best year. I could also see Kaprizov based on prior years. All are close.

 

[MAB1]

Except in the playoffs when it matters. All these guys are close enough that that I'm going to take the guy that has proven that he can do it in the playoffs and won a cup.

Yup, Rantanen > Ovi after 7 years too right?

the Avs won the cup 9 years after drafting Mackinnon. We're currently in year 7 of Matthews & Marner

How generous of you to allow your team a 9 year window but critic Marner after 6 years.

 

[93gilmour93]

Because the question isn’t who has the longest point streak.
The question is who is the best.
And despite many Leaf fans claiming Marner is elite defensively the 5 vs 5 stats don’t appear to back that up.
I went Robertson as he’s having the best year. All are close.

Same response to the question who’s best.

 

[Muffin]

Yup, Rantanen > Ovi after 7 years too right?

the Avs won the cup 9 years after drafting Mackinnon. We're currently in year 7 of Matthews & Marner

How generous of you to allow your team a 9 year window but critic Marner after 6 years.

What does MacKinnon and Matthews have to do with it? Rantanen and Marner were in the same draft class, they have been in the league for the same amount of years.

How many playoff series have Marner won? How many do you think Rantanen won after 6 years? Hint it’s not zero.

Also look at their production in the playoffs. Not close at all. Fact is Rantanen being the much bigger guy is better suited for the playoff game.

It's hilariously lopsided when you look at their playoffs performance.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Pastrnak's most common C last year was Erik Haula. This year it's been David Krejci and Pavel Zacha. They moved him away from Bergeron and Marchand in the new year of last season. His numbers went up. He has 51 goals in 74 games since that point. He's proven that he drives the play and offense no matter who he's paired with.

And put up 88 points per 82 games. A great season, no doubt. Taylor Hall mostly on the other wing, for full disclosure.

Kaprizov would probably kill to have a guy like Haula right now.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Same response to the question who’s best.

Except goals and points are actually a measurable statistic. He’s really good defensively needs to be backed up with actual stats other than just saying ‘watch him play’ which is a subjective opinion and inevitably highly biased.