Rumor: Marner expected to get 12.5$ million offer

[Syckle78]

While adding Marner to the Pens would be great...their D isn't winning any cups...

They won two cups with essentially the same defense. They lost their scoring depth and speed to compensate. Put a marner on that team and it changes the whole complexion again.

 

[6ix]

No brainer for the leafs to let him walk and take the 4 1st rounders if he gets offered 12.5 mill a year.

That’s 4 first rounders + 10 mill in cap space to sign an UFA and this years crop of UFA’s is elite.

Those 4 1st rounders are also excellent ammo to trade for players as well.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

While value wise 4 1sts is underwhelming...but add to that the cap space not used on Marner and the options are endless when looking at improving other areas.

Which would be a smart, sensible thing to do.

Use that cap space and keep your depth. The Leafs would be losing their biggest offensive weapon, there's no doubt about it. But would be keeping the needed depth for cup runs during the primes of AM, Tavares, and Nylander.

Sadly, Marner is better then all three, but that was the risk taken when they went all in last year signing Tavares. And while I personally don't think the Leafs are a better team without Marner and more depth, its the nature of the beast.

 

[NiL8r87]

Offer sheet from Colorado. 4 1st round picks going the other way.

Forward group: Mackinnon, landeskog, Marner and rantanen

Defense group: makes, Byram, Girard, barrie

I’d feel comfortable with that group going forward to give up 4 first rounders knowing the first one is 16th overall. I’d expect the next 3 to all be lower

Might be a mistake for the Avs to do this considering three of those forwards are wingers and Rantanen will likely get as much as Marner. They can't break up that first line can they? Is Marner going to carry the second line with Jost who's been trade bait on these boards from what I can tell?

25 mil to re-sign Marner and Rantanen possibly, give or take. Zadorov an RFA. Barrie a UFA next year. Girard an RFA next year. Holes to fill at Center. Not sure another 10 figure winger makes sense for them.

 

[Echo Roku]

Might be a mistake for the Avs to do this considering three of those forwards are wingers and Rantanen will likely get as much as Marner. They can't break up that first line can they? Is Marner going to carry the second line with Jost who's been trade bait on these boards from what I can tell?

25 mil to re-sign Marner and Rantanen possibly, give or take. Zadorov an RFA. Barrie a UFA next year. Girard an RFA next year. Holes to fill at Center. Not sure another 10 figure winger makes sense for them.

The first line was broken up most of last year. Them still playing together outside of PP is a misconception

 

[Spilot23]

1. Skinner did not played with Tavares
2. Skinner scored more goals than Marner
3. Like you said, Skinner is a UFA and had all the leverage.

1. Skinner is playing with Eichel so to me it isn't a big difference. The biggest helper here is probably Toronto's PP along with someone named Rielly other than that linesmates are pretty equal to me.
2. As I said Skinner is playing with Eichel and he is the playmaker while on the other hand Marner is the playmaker which shows in stats. What's funny there is that Marner had more assists than Skinner had points.
3. Indeed that's the difficult thing here but after what Matthews and Tavares got. Would you be pissed if somehow you get less when you just showed your team that you can be the best out there?

 

[vanarchy]

Bigger story be who has the balls to offersheet Binnington to outrageous amount so the blues would have to think long and hard.

I don't know how that question would relate to this thread in any way, shape or form but sure.

 

[mouser]

@mouser Can we get a clarification on this issue. I absolutely remember Philly and Nashville being in trade negotiations during the Weber signing.

Philly and Nashville might have been in discussion for alternate compensation packages. I.e. Nashville would agree not to match the Offer Sheet in return for some package of assets from Philly other then the four 1st round picks.

Nashville couldn’t trade Weber to Philly though once the Offer Sheet was signed.

 

[biotk]

Sadly, Marner is better then all three, but that was the risk taken when they went all in last year signing Tavares.

Happily Marner is not close to as good as either Tavares or Matthews. But considering how deluded many hfboard posters are there must be at least some chance that a GM is equally deluded and will either give up really good assets for him or give him a sky high offer sheet.

 

[Extra Texture]

Seems insane that some team which can afford the 12.5 Million AAV in their cap will also be willing to give up 4 1st round picks.

I'm late to the party, so someone has probably already said it, but this off-season really does have the unique combination of teams that could actually fit the bill in this scenario.

San Jose (if they dont sign EK).........25M before RFA raises, and holes to fill on the blueline
Colorado (still have to pay Rantanen)....37 M before raises
NYI and Hurricanes....................about 28M each before raises

Now, I definitely dont think its smart for any of these teams to lose the picks (and that much cap room) on Marner, but they look to have all taken the "next step" as a playoff team. If one of them manages to scoop Marner, I think losing those picks wouldnt hurt nearly as much. And if you're getting a 22 year old Marner, realistically, odds are you wont get a player that good late in the first round.

Ordinarily, yeah, any team with that kind of money to spend is usually putrid and wouldnt dare give up the picks. But this season there really does seem to be a perfect storm of financially efficient teams that are already among the ranks of playoff regulars.

 

[Syckle78]

1. Skinner is playing with Eichel so to me it isn't a big difference. The biggest helper here is probably Toronto's PP along with someone named Rielly other than that linesmates are pretty equal to me.
2. As I said Skinner is playing with Eichel and he is the playmaker while on the other hand Marner is the playmaker which shows in stats. What's funny there is that Marner had more assists than Skinner had points.
3. Indeed that's the difficult thing here but after what Matthews and Tavares. Would you be pissed if somehow you get less when you just showed your team that you can be the best out there?

Believe it or not buffalo and Toronto scored the same amou t of pp goals. Toronto's pp was underwhelming relative to their talent.

 

[biotk]

The first line was broken up most of last year. Them still playing together outside of PP is a misconception

MacKinnon played with Rantanen 81% of the time at 5v5 and played with Landeskog 78% of the time.

 

[57special]

no, i

No, it isn't. But does that give GMs a pass for paying Skinner 9 million? My point is directly at people only talking about Dubas when speaking to overpays. 6.96 for a 22 year old with 2 straight 60+ point years is an overpay, but 9x8 for 27 year old career high 63 point Skinner is OK? Why? Because if Buffalo didn't do it another GM would? All that proves is that at least 2 GMs are stupid.

You're right, but neither TML or the Sabres have a monopoly on overpaying players. I would argue that the Leafs at least got value for their money, unlike, say, Kesler or Lucic. Don't forget that the Rielly contract is a bargoon...I think they could of either held off on the Mathews contract, or at least tried to pay him a bit less as a RFA, but ...

Bottom line is that paying Marner 10.5M + for years to come is going to put them in a bind in the short term. They have to hope that some of their prospects can help out, and soon.

 

[Spilot23]

Believe it or not buffalo and Toronto scored the same amou t of pp goals. Toronto's pp was underwhelming relative to their talent.

Damn this is something new. My bad for not looking it up but I was so sure there was a massive difference in the PP maybe I watched way too much thread stating Toronto has the best PP earlier this season though.

 

[NiL8r87]

Damn this is something new. My bad for not looking it up but I was so sure there was a massive difference in the PP maybe I watched way too much thread stating Toronto has the best PP earlier this season though.

They did for a bit. It fell off insanely hard though.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

True, but it's your next 4 1sts...Malkin's deal ends in 3, and Crosby won't be "Crosby elite" forever....still risky.

As long as Crosby and Malkin are around, Pens' ownership is in "win now" mode. Which means the only thing they're concerned with is the next 3 to 5 seasons, when both those guys are still capable of being top line players.

So really, even if one of those later 1sts ends up biting them in the ass, it'll be seen as the price of contending *now* since once Crosby and Malkin are no longer elite, those picks won't help much anyways. It's not like the 1st round pick 4 years from now is likely to provide them with a replacement for Crosby and Malkin.

 

[Echo Roku]

MacKinnon played with Rantanen 81% of the time at 5v5 and played with Landeskog 78% of the time.

Source? Seems suspect

 

[NiL8r87]

Wait why are we talking about Marner to the Pens?

 

[Liferleafer]

Wait why are we talking about Marner to the Pens?

Offersheets baby!! They can come from anywhere!!!

 

[shylock104]

Yea Marner's definitely gonna get McDavid money... that sounds feasible. If this is true about his agent that's insane. Some of these guys are absolute dickheads.

 

[biotk]

Source? Seems suspect

natural stat trick

under: players/player index / teammates

And keep in mind that due to linemates often changing at different times during a shift, it is extremely difficult for two players to exceed 90% with each other even if they play every shift together, so MacKinnon probably played 90% of his shifts with Rantanen and Landeskog.

 

[Orfieus]

What on earth are you trying to say? Did you mean to use the word THAN? If so then you should probably use it.

It then were better than than, then than would be then but it's not.

k.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

What if it was as Colorado that sent the offer sheet. Would they really be risking lottery picks?

Ok. Colardo has 37m in cap space with 10 players to be signed. Marner and Rantantan take 22m. Now it's just 15m with 8 players to be signed...excluding 3.5m in potential bonuses.. Now Avs are almost at the cap.
Maybe the Avs aren't a lottery team but they certainly are at risk of not having much cap flexibility.

 

[FourRings]

Honest question...as fans of non-Leafs teams, which of you would be comfortable with your GM offering 12.5 while giving up 4 1sts?

As an Islanders fan, I'd have to pass at that price. The Islanders don't currently have someone to finish Marner's passes.

 

[Echo Roku]

natural stat trick

under: players/player index / teammates

And keep in mind that due to linemates often changing at different times during a shift, it is extremely difficult for two players to exceed 90% with each other even if they play every shift together, so MacKinnon probably played 90% of his shifts with Rantanen and Landeskog.

The thing is that Rantanen was outright injured for a tenth of the season. That combined with the fact that they were on different lines... and the fact that Nate was doing a bunch of extra shifts on various different lines as they played 11 forwards at times... makes this unlikely to be accurate

So I question whatever methodology they used