Player Discussion: Mark S Discussion

[10Ducky10]

They'll lie, steal, cheat but yeah, it's that swearing thing that will keep them out of Heaven.

I don't disagree, I was just saying what I have observed over the years.
I would bet that Scheifele doesn't swear because of his religion.

 

[Gm0ney]

just quoting for continuity

took J. Mccann from one of HFJets flavor du jour of this off-season (SEA). this is accounting the 79 games played from Mcann so excludes the 3-gp w/o him.

View attachment 735993
similarly the per-10 game totals
View attachment 735989

look at the difference in SEA finishing vs him against WPG vs scheifele. Mccann was an elite finisher this past year so i expect to his accumulate more than the team, but the delta b/w him and SEA is much smaller than ours w/ scheifele.

Seattle was on a SH% heater last season. 13 players over 10%. 3 over 15%. 13/19 skaters who played at least 25 games.

The Jets had only 7 players over 10% and only Scheifele over 15%. 7/21 skaters who played 25 games.

 

[DRW204]

real chicken or the egg here..... but the Jets have 2 Dmen that are among the bottom-30 in xGA/60 (min. 1000 mins played). scheifele quite a bit of time with these dmen, either separately or together.

maybe they need to defend better collectively

Seattle was on a SH% heater last season. 13 players over 10%. 3 over 15%. 13/19 skaters who played at least 25 games.

The Jets had only 7 players over 10% and only Scheifele over 15%. 7/21 skaters who played 25 games.

maybe, but they also did add quite a bit of talent compared to year-1.

viable top-6/9ers in bjorkstrand, bernier, sprong, burakovsky and tolvanen. that's 115 in GF newly added (less departures)

my point was - scheifele was carrying a poor finishing team (they finished 28th in sh% in 21-22 as well or 0.6% worse to this year). whereas you see a team who really augmented their depth the delta of their top-finisher vs rest of team as well as not having to rely on him to score for parts of the year.

and lots gets made about scheifele's +/-..... there's no doubt he needs to improve on the defensive end, but the Jets also need to improve on capitalizing on chances quite a bit more.

 

[Howard Chuck]

My only opinion on this discussion is purely eye test. I understand that he is a high end center and scorer and that he is our best.

What bothered me last year, wasn't his point totals or any stats..... it was his attitude and lack of effort for pretty long periods of time (in the second half of the season; in the first half he was a beast and spoiled me).

Imagine how good his stats would have been if he busted his ass all year long, like the superstars in the league. Imagine the benefit to the team if he worked his butt off... imagine the message that sends to the less talented players?

If we trade him, we need to replace the (net) points, but perhaps we make the team stronger by having a complete group that are all on the same page and all playing by the same playbook.

Your mileage may vary.....

 

[TS Quint]

We can start by some trying to compare the responsibilities of a C with a winger. Connor at least has some give a f*** in his zone - but his impact to D in our zone is far less than Schiefeles.

Honestly, I'd love to see 55 moved to the wing, if only we had a way to fill his C spot properly.

I completely agree Scheifele should have been moved to the wing in the past when the Jets had some Centre depth. I would have loved to have seen Stastny for example centre Scheifele. To me Stastny was perfect for that role. He was slowing down but still a very smart player A good defensive ying to Schiefele’s yang. But this year the Jets don’t have that depth. They’re just going to have to hope Scheifele pulls his head out of his ass defensively.

 

[DRW204]

I completely agree Scheifele should have been moved to the wing in the past when the Jets had some Centre depth. I would have loved to have seen Stastny for example centre Scheifele. To me Stastny was perfect for that role. He was slowing down but still a very smart player A good defensive ying to Schiefele’s yang. But this year the Jets don’t have that depth. They’re just going to have to hope Scheifele pulls his head out of his ass defensively.

I think nino provides a good defensive /forecheck presence on a line, kind of like Palat in TB, or Nichushkin or Lehkonen in COL.

He's also a pretty proficient goal scorer at 5v5 hockey so not just some random forecheck guy like Appleton. I think you pair him and Scheifele, along with a winger not named Kyle Connor and Scheifele will rate far better in net offense.

 

[Jet]

I completely agree Scheifele should have been moved to the wing in the past when the Jets had some Centre depth. I would have loved to have seen Stastny for example centre Scheifele. To me Stastny was perfect for that role. He was slowing down but still a very smart player A good defensive ying to Schiefele’s yang. But this year the Jets don’t have that depth. They’re just going to have to hope Scheifele pulls his head out of his ass defensively.

To me it's a win win - let Schiefele focus what he's great at and get someone else to do the heavy lifting defensively

 

[Jets 31]

I don't disagree, I was just saying what I have observed over the years.
I would bet that Scheifele doesn't swear because of his religion.

Scheifele is a avid golfer, no way in hell he doesn't swear.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think nino provides a good defensive /forecheck presence on a line, kind of like Palat in TB, or Nichushkin or Lehkonen in COL.

He's also a pretty proficient goal scorer at 5v5 hockey so not just some random forecheck guy like Appleton. I think you pair him and Scheifele, along with a winger not named Kyle Connor and Scheifele will rate far better in net offense.

I agree. Put a couple two way wingers that can work the boards, put the puck in the net, and defer to Scheif offensively... real quickly he won't look too bad.

 

[JetsUK]

I agree. Put a couple two way wingers that can work the boards, put the puck in the net, and defer to Scheif offensively... real quickly he won't look too bad.

Agree with @DRW204 and you -- time to let Scheifele be Scheifele, a terrific offensive threat who is freer to do what he does best on the wing and not have to worry about a C's responsibilities.

Also think that KFC's success with PLD at times suggests that he might work well with a GV / Ehlers / Perfetti / Whoever combo who can carry and retrieve and set him up for those lethal shots from anywhere that KFC can generate when he's on.

How refreshing it would be to see 2 or even 3 genuinely dangerous lines that aren't being caved in defensively.

 

[10Ducky10]

Play Scheif between Perfetti and Nino.
Both aren't bad defensively and will help Scheif out as well as having Nino to do a lot of the dirty work and Scheif/Perfetti think the game at an elite level and can keep up with each other. Plus, they're pretty good at putting the puck in the net.
Nino probably gets 55-60 points if he plays with these two for a season.

 

[Whileee]

Play Scheif between Perfetti and Nino.
Both aren't bad defensively and will help Scheif out as well as having Nino to do a lot of the dirty work and Scheif/Perfetti think the game ant an elite level and can keep up with each other. Plus, they're pretty good at putting the puck in the net.
Nino probably gets 55-60 points if he plays with these two for a season.

I agree with Scheifele playing with one good, creative offensive player and a heavier defensive player. Same with Connor. Just keep Scheifele separate from Connor.

Bowness has the depth and quality of forward to construct balanced lines.

 

[10Ducky10]

I agree with Scheifele playing with one good, creative offensive player and a heavier defensive player. Same with Connor. Just keep Scheifele separate from Connor.

Bowness has the depth and quality of forward to construct balanced lines.

I think how the coach makes his lineup is the fans' single biggest complaint on most teams.
I always thought the Ehlers Scheif Wheeler line was the best I have seen Jets 2.0 send over the boards but how long did they play together for?

I agree with everything in your post.
KC Vilardi Kup/Iafallo would be an interesting line. KC is like a dog with a bone in the O zone and Vilardi is supposed to have a wicked set of hands and Iafallo or Kup in the corners/dirty spots could work well. It also puts KC with two pretty responsible D players.
It also leaves the opportunity to play Ehlers with Names and Lowry to center the 4th line.

 

[ps241]

Seattle was on a SH% heater last season. 13 players over 10%. 3 over 15%. 13/19 skaters who played at least 25 games.

The Jets had only 7 players over 10% and only Scheifele over 15%. 7/21 skaters who played 25 games.

Reminds me of Nashville’s bizarre 2021-22 season where Duchene shot 18.9% (career 13.2), Jeanotte 19.4%, Forsberg 18.6% (career 12.1) and finally best for last Ryan Johansen 22.0% (career 11.8). Those guys all had these huge scoring seasons vs where they normally are which propelled that team into the playoffs.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To me if we didn't trade Dubois then Scheifele might have been traded but now that we traded Dubois the only way Chevy trades Scheifele is if we get a very good centerman back. That's a tough trade to do because unless the other teams center wants out they won't want to move the center they already have.

Sooo ........... you're saying Scheifele walks in FA next year?

Trading C for C is hugely unlikely unless you get back substantially less than what you give. Maybe there is a throw in of some kind to pretend to get value.
That's why I've been pushing the idea of Scheifele to Bruins for a goalie and Helle to any of several places for a C (or very strong C prospect).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

inspired by some analysis done on the sharks w/ and w/o of EK

this is scheifele's finishing compared to the rest of the team as the year progresses

View attachment 735973

if you were to filter it down o 10-game pockets:
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it might not be fair to compare since scheifele is an elite finisher and the rest of the collectively aren't close to average. Nevertheless , doesn't that further showcase his importance in scoring? the guy was scoring above expected compared to the rest of the team all year except game61 through 70.

imo: the harping on his +/- should be looking at both the on-ice GF and on-ice GA side.

if using xGA as a basis, scheifele vs team [less scheifele] the difference in xGA/60 is 2.87 vs 2.61.... or 8 GA if the same goaltending (which ofc can change).

the bigger component is clearly the on-ice GF side. his linemates were around -11 to -12 in GF vs xGF.... so if you assume GF-xGF = 0 is roughly average finishing,. that's 11-12 GF missing.

seems to me scheifele is closer to team-average defensively, compared to his linemates being closer to average-finishing. ideally you want improvements in both. but the bigger significance was how many flubbed opportunities his linemates got.

thank you for coming to my ted talk

To reiterate, the Jets have been an absolute mess in the playoffs without Scheifele.

Starting with the 2017/18 playoffs, here are the Jets' records and goals for/against (GF / GA) in games with and without Scheifele.

Record:

With Scheifele: 16W 16L
Without Scheifele: 1W 8L

Goals:

With Scheifele: 102 GF, 82 GA
Without Scheifele: 12 GF, 33 GA

So, in 9 playoff games without Scheifele the Jets averaged 1.33 goals for per game, and 3.67 goals against.

At an individual level, Scheifele's 5v5 on-ice xGF% in the playoffs has been 54.5%, tops among the high-minute forwards on the Jets (see table below).

View attachment 736004

Nice to see some positive views of Scheifele, regardless of PO or regular season. I think the criticisms have been way overboard for quite a while here. Not entirely unjustified, but overstated.

 

[DRW204]

I agree. Put a couple two way wingers that can work the boards, put the puck in the net, and defer to Scheif offensively... real quickly he won't look too bad.

yup and over the past 3 years, nino and connor are basically the same in scoring efficiency at 5v5. nino can put the puck in the net at 5v5 pretty proficiently.

ehlers and scheifele usually work well together. and then you have nino who can finish and handle some of the secondary or tertiary duties (net-front, forecheck, physicality etc.)

 

[Whileee]

yup and over the past 3 years, nino and connor are basically the same in scoring efficiency at 5v5. nino can put the puck in the net at 5v5 pretty proficiently.


View attachment 737327

ehlers and scheifele usually work well together. and then you have nino who can finish and handle some of the secondary or tertiary duties (net-front, forecheck, physicality etc.)

Ehlers-Scheifele-Nino seems like a very promising line combo.

Put Connor with Vilardi and Perfetti.

 

[Jets 31]

Sooo ........... you're saying Scheifele walks in FA next year?

Trading C for C is hugely unlikely unless you get back substantially less than what you give. Maybe there is a throw in of some kind to pretend to get value.
That's why I've been pushing the idea of Scheifele to Bruins for a goalie and Helle to any of several places for a C (or very strong C prospect).

No i think Chevy signs Scheifele and possibly Helly as well but that's just a guess on my part.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No i think Chevy signs Scheifele and possibly Helly as well but that's just a guess on my part.

Yeah, everybody has a guess right now and no ones guess is any better than anyone else's guess. My own keeps changing.
I can see Chevy trying to sign them. Trying hard, but failing.

I would be happy to either sign both or trade both (assuming the trades make sense). I don't want to see either of them walk. I especially don't want to go back to the days of not having a decent goalie.

 

[Razzle71]

What do you guys think the next contract is going to look like? How much would you give him right now?

 

[scelaton]

What do you guys think the next contract is going to look like? How much would you give him right now?

My premise is that Scheifele would prefer to be on another team and that Chevy will accommodate that request, IF--and only if--it is in the best interests of the Jets, short and long term. Any new contract has to facilitate that end, while respecting the player and his agent.

Scheifele no doubt wants top tier value (eg 8x$9), but it is becoming increasingly obvious that his market value is significantly less than that.

A reasonable comparable would be Couturier, who signed $7.75Mx8, beginning 2 years before Mark's will start. Taking into account Mark will be older but cap inflation will be higher, I imagine Chevy offering $8.5x6 =$51M over 6 years--the highest AAV and total dollar value in Jets history. Maybe couching it in those terms will make him feel less unappreciated.

That makes Scheifele a great 2C or 1RW on a SC-worthy team, so Chevy can deal him whenever the time is right for the Jets, Scheifele and the as-yet unnamed team.

 

[DRW204]

What do you guys think the next contract is going to look like? How much would you give him right now?

No idea what he would look like on a new deal right now. I wonder if he'd actually sign anything right now.

He put up 40+ goals and high 60s in pts playing with a Turnstile of linemates in the first half. The jets have better depth now to supply him with solid wingers, he may be posted to have his highest scoring season.

 

[10Ducky10]

Offer him a heavily front loaded deal over 7 years.

 

[Flair Hay]

My premise is that Scheifele would prefer to be on another team and that Chevy will accommodate that request, IF--and only if--it is in the best interests of the Jets, short and long term. Any new contract has to facilitate that end, while respecting the player and his agent.

Scheifele no doubt wants top tier value (eg 8x$9), but it is becoming increasingly obvious that his market value is significantly less than that.

A reasonable comparable would be Couturier, who signed $7.75Mx8, beginning 2 years before Mark's will start. Taking into account Mark will be older but cap inflation will be higher, I imagine Chevy offering $8.5x6 =$51M over 6 years--the highest AAV and total dollar value in Jets history. Maybe couching it in those terms will make him feel less unappreciated.

That makes Scheifele a great 2C or 1RW on a SC-worthy team, so Chevy can deal him whenever the time is right for the Jets, Scheifele and the as-yet unnamed team.

Yeah I think Scheifele has another $50M or so coming his way. It's really up to the team how many years they want to spread it over I guess.

8.5x6 seems in line with what it would take and what would be ... stomachable for the team.