Lottery Draft System To Stay

[AttackSound]

OHL Announces Priority Selection Lottery Format – Ontario Hockey League

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[HockeyPops]

Personally, I don't like it. I understand the thought behind not wanting teams to absolutely tank for last place.

But the best franchises never fall to last place in a season for a reason. And those franchises should not get the first overall pick if they happen to just miss out on the playoffs one year. Because some franchises are just always bad and they are the ones that need the first overall picks to try to create more parity in the league.

All this is doing is adding more incentive to the 7th/8th place teams in a conference to perhaps tank for 9th in the hopes they back door into the first overall pick.

The rich keep getting richer, and the poor keep getting poorer.

 

[rangersblues]

Personally, I don't like it. I understand the thought behind not wanting teams to absolutely tank for last place.

But the best franchises never fall to last place in a season for a reason. And those franchises should not get the first overall pick if they happen to just miss out on the playoffs one year. Because some franchises are just always bad and they are the ones that need the first overall picks to try to create more parity in the league.

All this is doing is adding more incentive to the 7th/8th place teams in a conference to perhaps tank for 9th in the hopes they back door into the first overall pick.

The rich keep getting richer, and the poor keep getting poorer.

It is weighted. Would most teams forego playoff gates for a 10% chance at first pick overall? I'm more concerned about the top players notifying the bottom feeders they won't report than the draft lottery.

 

[HockeyPops]

I'm not saying it will happen every time, but you are giving more incentive for it to happen some times. Even if there is no tanking for 9th, you are taking away the first overall pick from the last place team 60% of the time. The poor getting poorer. The last place team needs this pick. It helps create parity in the league.

Players not reporting to bottom teams is just going to get more rampant as the the poor keep getting poorer. It's a never ending cycle of mediocrity.

 

[Otto]

Personally, I don't like it. I understand the thought behind not wanting teams to absolutely tank for last place.

But the best franchises never fall to last place in a season for a reason. And those franchises should not get the first overall pick if they happen to just miss out on the playoffs one year. Because some franchises are just always bad and they are the ones that need the first overall picks to try to create more parity in the league.

All this is doing is adding more incentive to the 7th/8th place teams in a conference to perhaps tank for 9th in the hopes they back door into the first overall pick.

The rich keep getting richer, and the poor keep getting poorer.

You underestimate the desire for at least 2 home playoff games. Revenue is important now more than ever. Teams with a potential guaranteed revenue are not tanking to have a weighted chance at a 1st overall draft pick that may or may not report.

 

[OMG67]

It is weighted. Would most teams forego playoff gates for a 10% chance at first pick overall? I'm more concerned about the top players notifying the bottom feeders they won't report than the draft lottery.

Great point. That is a much bigger issue. If Niagara wins the draft lottery, will they get the REAL #1 pick?

You underestimate the desire for at least 2 home playoff games. Revenue is important now more than ever. Teams with a potential guaranteed revenue are not tanking to have a weighted chance at a 1st overall draft pick that may or may not report.

Interesting point. I think most teams prefer the revenue and to be 100% honest, I think most teams WANT TO make the playoffs. I don’t think they sit there hoping to miss the playoffs.

Strategically speaking, and for ease of rebuild, I could see teams tanking but not necessarily to finish last place. Occasionally we see a super stud go first but usually the difference between the first pick and fifth pick isn’t significant enough to tank for. In fact, in many cases it is more about picking the best player willing to report.

 

[HockeyPops]

I think anything that that further separates the "haves" from the "have nots" in the league is a bad thing. Players not willing to report to certain organizations is a big problem, and all this does is further separates those two groups and will cause even more players to pick and choose where they want to report.

I see no upside. Unless you are in the "haves" camp.

 

[scotty171]

Does the fact that teams play an unbalanced schedule have some influence in there being a draft lottery? Teams from the east and west don't play the same number of games against each other which could have a bearing on the standings outcomes. This would make a draft lottery more fair for the bottom teams from each conference.

 

[bcspragu]

Why would powerhouses have to tank? They can already draft kids who wont report to certain markets. London drafting 4th vs 5th isnt going to affect thier selection 99% of the time. They will get their guy regardless.

I think it makes plenty of sense considering the unbalanced schedule.

 

[Otto]

Delete

I think anything that that further separates the "haves" from the "have nots" in the league is a bad thing. Players not willing to report to certain organizations is a big problem, and all this does is further separates those two groups and will cause even more players to pick and choose where they want to report.

I see no upside. Unless you are in the "haves" camp.

But you said there are teams that are always bad. If they are consistently getting the first overall pick as you say, and they are consistently bad then obviously the old system didn't work. So maybe since there is no guarantee that these teams that are always bad will get the first overall pick they might be inspired to actually do something to improve their franchise rather than cry about everyone else?

 

[dirty12]

I like that it is weighted, but would prefer five teams if a lottery is needed. Often enough the 5th team is weaker than the 4th.
40-20-20-10-10 % chances.

 

[Ferda11]

You underestimate the desire for at least 2 home playoff games. Revenue is important now more than ever. Teams with a potential guaranteed revenue are not tanking to have a weighted chance at a 1st overall draft pick that may or may not report.

I just finished saying the same kind of thing in the Sarnia thread. For teams like Sarnia, games in the post season are a rarity. They already struggle to fill the rink half-full during the regular season and Sarnia hockey fans will only support if the team is doing exceptionally good. I think it's fair to say some teams may be able to afford to tank for 9th for a better chance at #1, but most others simply cannot afford () to miss the post season and the extra revenue it generates.

 

[Savard18]

Delete


But you said there are teams that are always bad. If they are consistently getting the first overall pick as you say, and they are consistently bad then obviously the old system didn't work. So maybe since there is no guarantee that these teams that are always bad will get the first overall pick they might be inspired to actually do something to improve their franchise rather than cry about everyone else?

So you think they’re just not trying to be good but this will motivate them?

 

[Otto]

So you think they’re just not trying to be good but this will motivate them?

No, but I also don't believe that the same teams are getting the first overall pick all the time.

 

[OMG67]

I think there is one situation that is avoided by a draft lottery and that is a team intentionally tanking in a season where the projected 1st overall pick is generational or exceptional status.

A team near the bottom of the standings with little room to maneuver may intentionally tank to finish last if the player they get is worth it.

I don’t think teams will choose to compete when they think the rebuild is more important. In those situations, it doesn’t matter if they pick 1st or 4th. Their decision to rebuild and gain assets for graduating players at the deadline remains unchanged with a lottery. Making the playoffs is not the priority for that team. It would be a bonus. Pushing assets forward for roster and draft pick management is the keyfor their decision. I think the overwhelming majority of teams operate this way and aren’t trying to finish LAST unless it is for a really big stud with a serious gap between that player and the 2nd pick.

The draft lottery is inconsequential most seasons. Maybe one season out of five it is meaningful.

 

[Purple Phart]

The Knights WILL get those players who opt toward not reporting to the team(s) who selected them as their first round picks. ( Mete & Dickenson ) are prime illustrations. Weighted lottery or not, there will ultimately be those players who choose not to report to certain clubs.

 

[HockeyPops]

No, but I also don't believe that the same teams are getting the first overall pick all the time.

First overall picks

1998 Brampton
1999 Mississauga ID
2000 Mississauga ID
2001 Mississauga ID
2002 Mississauga ID
2003 Saginaw
2004 Belleville
2005 Oshawa
2006 Sarnia
2007 Erie
2008 Sudbury
2009 SSM
2010 Sarnia
2011 Barrie
2012 Erie
2013 Ottawa
2014 Sarnia
2015 Sudbury
2016 Guelph
2017 Barrie
2018 Sudbury
2019 Kingston
2020 North Bay
2021 Sudbury * not the last placed team
2022 Saginaw * not the last placed team

There are certainly repeat offenders on this list.

Can you imagine if Erie didn't get Connor McDavid in 2012 because of a lottery? Byfield in Sudbury? The last place team needs all the help they can get and this lottery is undermining that system.

 

[Otto]

First overall picks

1998 Brampton
1999 Mississauga ID
2000 Mississauga ID
2001 Mississauga ID
2002 Mississauga ID
2003 Saginaw
2004 Belleville
2005 Oshawa
2006 Sarnia
2007 Erie
2008 Sudbury
2009 SSM
2010 Sarnia
2011 Barrie
2012 Erie
2013 Ottawa
2014 Sarnia
2015 Sudbury
2016 Guelph
2017 Barrie
2018 Sudbury
2019 Kingston
2020 North Bay
2021 Sudbury * not the last placed team
2022 Saginaw * not the last placed team

There are certainly repeat offenders on this list.

Can you imagine if Erie didn't get Connor McDavid in 2012 because of a lottery? Byfield in Sudbury? The last place team needs all the help they can get and this lottery is undermining that system.

So, not counting the last 2 because they were not the last place team you've got 8 different teams in 10 years. And Barrie was 6 years between 1st overall.

 

[the dog]

Great point. That is a much bigger issue. If Niagara wins the draft lottery, will they get the REAL #1 pick?



Interesting point. I think most teams prefer the revenue and to be 100% honest, I think most teams WANT TO make the playoffs. I don’t think they sit there hoping to miss the playoffs.

Strategically speaking, and for ease of rebuild, I could see teams tanking but not necessarily to finish last place. Occasionally we see a super stud go first but usually the difference between the first pick and fifth pick isn’t significant enough to tank for. In fact, in many cases it is more about picking the best player willing to report.

No not after trading his brother to oshawa

 

[Dhockey16]

Mixed feelings on the lottery. Wouldn't mind seeing it expanded to include 7/8 seed playoff teams. Allow teams to move up a maximum of 3 or 4 spots. Unfortunately I think this'll be bad for the true bottom feeders. Erie was so horrendous the year before they got McDavid I think he's the only guy that could've turned it around. They desperately needed the #1 pick that year. Followed it up with Strome at #2 the next year and turned it into a pretty good run for the franchise. Will be interested to see how it plays out.

 

[jamemcca]

Unnecessary

 

[AttackSound]

At the end of the day, I'm kinda on a neutral basis with this announcement by the the OHL.



On one hand I understand why fans would disagree with this decision by the league do to the chance of getting the 1st overall pick wouldn't be a guarantee for them. But let's take out personal feelings for a minute and look at this decision from a teams management perspective for a moment.



Let's say you're a team that isn't really competitive this year and your a bottom 4 team in the standings. Would your rather have a 25% chance of getting the 1st overall selection and a chance to fast track your teams rebuild or leave it the way it has been for years and hope that you're bad enough for you to miss the playoffs and hope that the teams that are in a similar situation are just a slightly bit better.





I think this move by the league is more to even the playing field. Beyond that the only other options left are to allow the teams to trade their 1st round selections which I still believe that would be disastrous for organizations around the league who typically don't necessarily get to build a competitive club.

This lottery system is really the league's only real move that they can make as an alternative to allowing managers to do that, otherwise they would have to allow 1st round picks moved and have to but heavy limitations on teams to avoid teams trading 1, 2 or even 3 1st round selections for 1 player.

Could everyone imagine if Erie picked McDavid and then said well we aren't going to win the next 2 years and trade him to a team like Ottawa or London or Soo for 1st and 2nd round picks where the Otters seasons would've looked like? Or if teams who picked defective 1st round picks weren't restricted to limitations what teams could do when the deemed a player defective and were allowed to trade them where teams could be?

At the end of the day no the lottery system isn't perfect 100% but compared to what the OHL could've allowed teams to do instead of this would've done more harm to marginal teams this.

 

[dirty12]

At the end of the day, I'm kinda on a neutral basis with this announcement by the the OHL.



On one hand I understand why fans would disagree with this decision by the league do to the chance of getting the 1st overall pick wouldn't be a guarantee for them. But let's take out personal feelings for a minute and look at this decision from a teams management perspective for a moment.



Let's say you're a team that isn't really competitive this year and your a bottom 4 team in the standings. Would your rather have a 25% chance of getting the 1st overall selection and a chance to fast track your teams rebuild or leave it the way it has been for years and hope that you're bad enough for you to miss the playoffs and hope that the teams that are in a similar situation are just a slightly bit better.





I think this move by the league is more to even the playing field. Beyond that the only other options left are to allow the teams to trade their 1st round selections which I still believe that would be disastrous for organizations around the league who typically don't necessarily get to build a competitive club.

This lottery system is really the league's only real move that they can make as an alternative to allowing managers to do that, otherwise they would have to allow 1st round picks moved and have to but heavy limitations on teams to avoid teams trading 1, 2 or even 3 1st round selections for 1 player.

Could everyone imagine if Erie picked McDavid and then said well we aren't going to win the next 2 years and trade him to a team like Ottawa or London or Soo for 1st and 2nd round picks where the Otters seasons would've looked like? Or if teams who picked defective 1st round picks weren't restricted to limitations what teams could do when the deemed a player defective and were allowed to trade them where teams could be?

At the end of the day no the lottery system isn't perfect 100% but compared to what the OHL could've allowed teams to do instead of this would've done more harm to marginal teams this.

It is simply just to prevent deliberate tanking. The wolves blatantly tanked for Byfield. The next draft Wright was going #1.
I would prefer 5 teams. Getting the final playoff spot is more of a penalty if the four below are in a lottery while the that final playoff seed gets smoked round 1. I think the this current lottery set up just invites more of the 7-10 teams to sell heavy miss the playoffs

 

[EvenSteven]

It is simply just to prevent deliberate tanking. The wolves blatantly tanked for Byfield. The next draft Wright was going #1.
I would prefer 5 teams. Getting the final playoff spot is more of a penalty if the four below are in a lottery while the that final playoff seed gets smoked round 1. I think the this current lottery set up just invites more of the 7-10 teams to sell heavy miss the playoffs

IMO, it is simply just to allow the league to dictate the top four draft order. Of course they were going to stick to it based on how well it worked for the league last year.

Process of elimination.

-Niagara was never going to get 1st overall because of their issues last year. So the league were able to see to it they picked 4th.

-Erie has had an exceptional player in the past so the league saw to it they wouldn’t get a shot at Misa.

-Sudbury has had the 1st overall pick, what, three times over the last 10 years or so? The league felt that they’ve picked 1st enough.

-That left Saginaw. They haven’t been an embarrassment to the league. They haven't had an exceptional player before. They haven’t picked 1st overall before. As far as the league is concerned, they checked all the boxes. So they chose Saginaw to pick 1st overall.

When this year’s “lottery” rolls around, if Oshawa misses the playoffs, don’t be surprised when the league unites the Roobroeck brothers.

 

[dirty12]

IMO, it is simply just to allow the league to dictate the top four draft order. Of course they were going to stick to it based on how well it worked for the league last year.

Process of elimination.

-Niagara was never going to get 1st overall because of their issues last year. So the league were able to see to it they picked 4th.

-Erie has had an exceptional player in the past so the league saw to it they wouldn’t get a shot at Misa.

-Sudbury has had the 1st overall pick, what, three times over the last 10 years or so? The league felt that they’ve picked 1st enough.

-That left Saginaw. They haven’t been an embarrassment to the league. They haven't had an exceptional player before. They haven’t picked 1st overall before. As far as the league is concerned, they checked all the boxes. So they chose Saginaw to pick 1st overall.

When this year’s “lottery” rolls around, if Oshawa misses the playoffs, don’t be surprised when the league unites the Roobroeck brothers.

I certainly won’t like it if SSM gets 1st pick in both priority and import drafts and the team in most need ends up 4th again.