Proposal: Leon Draisaitl for Rasmus Dahlin

[Sypher04]

"Playoff Beast".

Mother of God, it was one year...

Honestly, it was more like 1 series.

In round 1 vs San Jose Draisaitl had 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 games.

It was the second round where he had 5 goals and 8 assists in 7 games that stuck out.

 

[joe dirte]

While I would LOVE to have LD on the Flyers, if we win the lottery there is no chance in HELL that I trade that pick for LD and whatever else you want to add. I keep Dahlin even with having a bursting stable of young dmen/prospects. I'd trade Sanheim/Ghost/Morin/Myers for a less proven forward with upside than LD and just run with probably the best defense the NHL has ever seen

the flyers are 13th in GAA and 13th in shots against. middle of the pack in most defensive metrics really.

their contribution to offense is rather average too.

flyers fans have massively hyped up their prospects, in my opinion way too much.

how about they become better than average, and become good before you start proclaiming them the best ever.

 

[nickdawg95]

Ok, well to answer your question for him. Yes Draisaitl has been driving his own line for the past 8 games, and if not for unsustainably low production on the PP he would still be on pace for over 70 points. Once his PP numbers normalize he will be fine. Suffering a concussion early in the year certainly didn't help, but he's starting to find his game again. I'm certainly not worried about him. I've watched him take over enough games to know what he's capable of.

sounds like your playing word game, that's cool, draisaitl isn't worth 8.5M and 100% is not worth dahlin, i'd bet you'd love to dump him and that 8.5m contract for the goat d man

 

[Deedog99]

Leon Draisaitl doesn't even come close to fetching you Dahlin. He also isn't a guaranteed #1 Center..

His salary screams he is!

 

[joe dirte]

Ok, well to answer your question for him. Yes Draisaitl has been driving his own line for the past 8 games, and if not for unsustainably low production on the PP he would still be on pace for over 70 points. Once his PP numbers normalize he will be fine. Suffering a concussion early in the year certainly didn't help, but he's starting to find his game again. I'm certainly not worried about him. I've watched him take over enough games to know what he's capable of.

hes failed rather miserably at producing every time he's taken off McD's line. he produces at roughly a low 60s point pace without him. even lower this year. until that changes he cant even be consudered a first line centre.

 

[ManofSteel55]

hes failed rather miserably at producing every time he's taken off McD's line. he produces at roughly a low 60s point pace without him. even lower this year. until that changes he cant even be consudered a first line centre.

He's battled injuries this year so his production hasn't been as good. He produces well without McDavid, just not as well as when he plays with McDavid - understandably I think.

For the record, low 60's in points is mid to low end first line center production - last year Giroux, Tavares, Johansen, and Monahan were all in that range, as were high end 2nd line C's who could be 1C's elsewhere like Kesler, Jeff Carter, O'Reilly and Kuznetsov. I don't see how that is "failing miserably".

 

[joe dirte]

He's battled injuries this year so his production hasn't been as good. He produces well without McDavid, just not as well as when he plays with McDavid - understandably I think.

For the record, low 60's in points is mid to low end first line center production - last year Giroux, Tavares, Johansen, and Monahan were all in that range, as were high end 2nd line C's who could be 1C's elsewhere like Kesler, Jeff Carter, O'Reilly and Kuznetsov. I don't see how that is "failing miserably".

yeah it's a ppg rate around 25th to 30th among centres. it's nazem kadri level. and by the way that prorates his even strength time. i didnt adjust his PP time with Mcd. it also begs the question of whether he would be as productive on a team that mcdavid wasn't drawing top defensive lines (when not on his line). I think the statement was made that he would be 1st line on 75% of teams in the league. without going through each and every team, I suspect it's closer to the reverse. 75% of the teams have a better first line centre. the remaining teams probably wouldn't trade their first for him though, because they're league basement teams. and quite frankly league basement teams would almost surely keep Dahlin over him.

which suggests that he's just not worth Dahlin.

the failing miserably was in reference to him as first line centre. there is no doubt his play does not support the idea he could play first line on a successful team.

 

[luki here]

Isn’t that what we heard about other dmen
Ekblad
Bogosian
And many more

No. Dahlin is way more hyped than ekblad was. Dahlin also has record breaking numbers in schweden iirc.

 

[ManofSteel55]

yeah it's a ppg rate around 25th to 30th among centres. it's nazem kadri level. and by the way that prorates his even strength time. i didnt adjust his PP time with Mcd. it also begs the question of whether he would be as productive on a team that mcdavid wasn't drawing top defensive lines (when not on his line). I think the statement was made that he would be 1st line on 75% of teams in the league. without going through each and every team, I suspect it's closer to the reverse. 75% of the teams have a better first line centre. the remaining teams probably wouldn't trade their first for him though, because they're league basement teams. and quite frankly league basement teams would almost surely keep Dahlin over him.

which suggests that he's just not worth Dahlin.

the failing miserably was in reference to him as first line centre. there is no doubt his play does not support the idea he could play first line on a successful team.

It only suggests that if you rate Dahlin as being as valuable as Matthews/Stamkos/Tavares in their draft years. A lot of people here seem to be assuming that he is a sure-shot to become the top defenseman in the world. Early draft pick defensemen are a huge gamble. He could be Lidstrom 2.0. He could be Justin Schultz 2.0. Or he could be anywhere in between. With Draisaitl, you know you are getting at worst a low end 1C/high end 2C (or 1 RW if you have a better 1C) at bare minimum. These are the situations in which a GM could look bad for making the trade, or for not making the trade.

 

[ManofSteel55]

No. Dahlin is way more hyped than ekblad was. Dahlin also has record breaking numbers in schweden iirc.

Didn't David Rundblad also have record breaking numbers in Sweden? What's he doing now?

 

[steveat]

Daigle....granted, a forward had massive hype....position doesn't matter...it's the player.

 

[joe dirte]

It only suggests that if you rate Dahlin as being as valuable as Matthews/Stamkos/Tavares in their draft years. A lot of people here seem to be assuming that he is a sure-shot to become the top defenseman in the world. Early draft pick defensemen are a huge gamble. He could be Lidstrom 2.0. He could be Justin Schultz 2.0. Or he could be anywhere in between. With Draisaitl, you know you are getting at worst a low end 1C/high end 2C (or 1 RW if you have a better 1C) at bare minimum. These are the situations in which a GM could look bad for making the trade, or for not making the trade.

no it doesn't mean that. there is a world of difference in the value of Matthews, Tavares, and stamkos, at their time of draft, and draisaitl now. massive difference. no one would give up likely franchise cornerstones like them for draisaitl.

that said, dahlin has the potential to get to that level of player or even higher. and probably does carry pretty close to the value of those guys at time of draft.

a lot can happen from now to next June though.

 

[ManofSteel55]

no it doesn't mean that. there is a world of difference in the value of Matthews, Tavares, and stamkos, at their time of draft, and draisaitl now. massive difference. no one would give up likely franchise cornerstones like them for draisaitl.

that said, dahlin has the potential to get to that level of player or even higher. and probably does carry pretty close to the value of those guys at time of draft.

a lot can happen from now to next June though.

The bolded is basically what I suggested - that you are putting Dahlin at that level. If that's the case, I think the hype on this guy is getting pretty out of hand. Well, maybe Stamkos level, but he wasn't considered "generational" pre-draft either like Tavares was, or "near generational" like Matthews. If his potential is seen as more of an average first overall - like a Taylor Hall type guy - then a GM would be pretty silly to not consider trading the pick for Draisaitl. Taylor Hall upside (and bust downside like all picks) vs Draisaitl is a tough decision.

Like I said, its mystery box syndrome going on right now - everyone is seeing this massive upside and assuming he reaches it.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

hes failed rather miserably at producing every time he's taken off McD's line. he produces at roughly a low 60s point pace without him. even lower this year. until that changes he cant even be consudered a first line centre.

Failed miserably and low 60 points don't belong in the same sentance together.

Only 18 listed centres scored 60 points last year and most of them were a hell of a lot older than Drai.

 

[joe dirte]

The bolded is basically what I suggested - that you are putting Dahlin at that level. If that's the case, I think the hype on this guy is getting pretty out of hand. Well, maybe Stamkos level, but he wasn't considered "generational" pre-draft either like Tavares was, or "near generational" like Matthews. If his potential is seen as more of an average first overall - like a Taylor Hall type guy - then a GM would be pretty silly to not consider trading the pick for Draisaitl. Taylor Hall upside (and bust downside like all picks) vs Draisaitl is a tough decision.

Like I said, its mystery box syndrome going on right now - everyone is seeing this massive upside and assuming he reaches it.

no. making the statement that if i think hes more valuable than draisaitl then I must think hes at stamkos or tavares value implies that I think draisaitl carries near the value those guys did at draft. butbit don't think that's true. there is a canyon of difference.

Draisaitls value now is hampered by the fact that he's 22 and on a new contract that he is probably not going to live up to in many peoples opinion. even if you draft dahlin and get a decent first pairing dman you're better off than you would be with draisaitl as long as you don't do something stupid like pay him 9 mil.

 

[joe dirte]

Failed miserably and low 60 points don't belong in the same sentance together.

Only 18 listed centres scored 60 points last year and most of them were a hell of a lot older than Drai.

he's 22 now and at his current level of production, his dependence on mcdavid, if he were 25 right now he would probably be considered a cap dump.

there is a LOT of projection built into his contract. it assumes he becomes an 80 point player at least, and on his own, not as a sidekick. I'm skeptical he ever gets there.

In my opinion that contract is going to prove to be a blunder. we won't know for sure for 2 or 3 years but I don't like the look of it at all.

when I say failed miserably I mean thatvis think he has to show he can be one of the top young centres in the league to do so. to date he is nowhere near top. he barely qualifies as a centre either.

 

[ManofSteel55]

no. making the statement that if i think hes more valuable than draisaitl then I must think hes at stamkos or tavares value implies that I think draisaitl carries near the value those guys did at draft. butbit don't think that's true. there is a canyon of difference.

Draisaitls value now is hampered by the fact that he's 22 and on a new contract that he is probably not going to live up to in many peoples opinion. even if you draft dahlin and get a decent first pairing dman you're better off than you would be with draisaitl as long as you don't do something stupid like pay him 9 mil.

Just because you assumed it doesn't mean it was implied. I never said that at all. If you think Dahlin is at the level of Stamkos or Tavares and thus won't trade him for Draisaitl, does that not mean that Stamkos and Tavares pre-draft value was greater than Draisaitl's today? Yes it does. But does Draisaitl today have greater draft value than guys who weren't as highly ranked as the near generational talents, guys like Hall, Erik Johnson, or Nugent-Hopkins? I think he probably does, and with the volatility of defensemen pre-draft and the fact that he isn't considered a "generational" talent by everyone, his value is probably lower than pre-draft Matthews or Tavares' was.

Truly, it will all depend on what team gets 1st overall in my opinion. Some teams need a potential top end center more than a potential top end defenseman, and some GM's would also likely prefer the player who has proven that he can play a significant role in the NHL. I think a lot of people are following this line of thinking with Dahlin right now, especially because most of what a lot of us have to go on are reports rather than a significant amount of viewings of him playing.

 

[ManofSteel55]

he's 22 now and at his current level of production, his dependence on mcdavid, if he were 25 right now he would probably be considered a cap dump.

there is a LOT of projection built into his contract. it assumes he becomes an 80 point player at least, and on his own, not as a sidekick. I'm skeptical he ever gets there.

In my opinion that contract is going to prove to be a blunder. we won't know for sure for 2 or 3 years but I don't like the look of it at all.

when I say failed miserably I mean thatvis think he has to show he can be one of the top young centres in the league to do so. to date he is nowhere near top. he barely qualifies as a centre either.

If he puts up 80 points, regardless of whether he is playing with McDavid or not, he is earning that contract. It puts him in the top 10 in scoring in today's NHL if he is doing that.

He has shown that he can produce without McDavid. At a slowed rate, sure, but there isn't a player in the world that wouldn't see a point decrease if he was moved from a line with a McDavid, Crosby, Matthews, or any player of that caliber. And if he does become a consistent 80 point player as a 2nd line center, he will do so with plenty of powerplay time with McDavid anyway, so I don't know why it has to be "on his own". Crosby and Malkin both point heavily on their own, but they play the powerplay together as well to help boost their numbers.

There is some projection there, I agree with that. I also think that the Oilers signed the deal knowing that the cap is going up significantly in the next few years and thus his percentage of the overall cap hit will decrease a fair amount. Agents knew that this summer, and adjusted their asking prices accordingly, unlike a summer earlier when the cap going up was less certain. Other young stars who were being paid 6 million dollars per year a couple of years ago will be getting 8-9 per year right away. The Oilers were one of the first teams who saw this jump in contract demands, but it will be happening league wide.

 

[bottomofthefoodchain]

Didn't David Rundblad also have record breaking numbers in Sweden? What's he doing now?

Seriously? How many no names had amazing seasons in the CHL?
Complete logic fail.

 

[joe dirte]

Just because you assumed it doesn't mean it was implied. I never said that at all. If you think Dahlin is at the level of Stamkos or Tavares and thus won't trade him for Draisaitl, does that not mean that Stamkos and Tavares pre-draft value was greater than Draisaitl's today? Yes it does. But does Draisaitl today have greater draft value than guys who weren't as highly ranked as the near generational talents, guys like Hall, Erik Johnson, or Nugent-Hopkins? I think he probably does, and with the volatility of defensemen pre-draft and the fact that he isn't considered a "generational" talent by everyone, his value is probably lower than pre-draft Matthews or Tavares' was.

Truly, it will all depend on what team gets 1st overall in my opinion. Some teams need a potential top end center more than a potential top end defenseman, and some GM's would also likely prefer the player who has proven that he can play a significant role in the NHL. I think a lot of people are following this line of thinking with Dahlin right now, especially because most of what a lot of us have to go on are reports rather than a significant amount of viewings of him

nobi don't think he carries the value of the Taylor hall type either.

 

[joe dirte]

If he puts up 80 points, regardless of whether he is playing with McDavid or not, he is earning that contract. It puts him in the top 10 in scoring in today's NHL if he is doing that.

He has shown that he can produce without McDavid. At a slowed rate, sure, but there isn't a player in the world that wouldn't see a point decrease if he was moved from a line with a McDavid, Crosby, Matthews, or any player of that caliber. And if he does become a consistent 80 point player as a 2nd line center, he will do so with plenty of powerplay time with McDavid anyway, so I don't know why it has to be "on his own". Crosby and Malkin both point heavily on their own, but they play the powerplay together as well to help boost their numbers.

There is some projection there, I agree with that. I also think that the Oilers signed the deal knowing that the cap is going up significantly in the next few years and thus his percentage of the overall cap hit will decrease a fair amount. Agents knew that this summer, and adjusted their asking prices accordingly, unlike a summer earlier when the cap going up was less certain. Other young stars who were being paid 6 million dollars per year a couple of years ago will be getting 8-9 per year right away. The Oilers were one of the first teams who saw this jump in contract demands, but it will be happening league wide.

I think the day you paid chris Kunitz 9 milly you failed as GM.

 

[Dotter]

Man this is a tough one. I think statistically Dahlin being a potential #1 dman is worth more than a #1 center. I think it is possible there might be clubs who would turn down McDavid just because their need for a #1 dman is greater than a superstar centerman.

 

[McFlyingV]

sounds like your playing word game, that's cool, draisaitl isn't worth 8.5M and 100% is not worth dahlin, i'd bet you'd love to dump him and that 8.5m contract for the goat d man

Where did I say he was? And no I have no urge to dump Draisaitl's contract, he's a hell of a player.

 

[McFlyingV]

hes failed rather miserably at producing every time he's taken off McD's line. he produces at roughly a low 60s point pace without him. even lower this year. until that changes he cant even be consudered a first line centre.

Produced at a 69 point pace last year before ever playing a minute of 5 on 5 with McDavid. He's still young and has some inconsistency in his game as a lot of young players do. Nothing I'm worried about. When he's on his game he can take over a game with ease.

You won't find many players producing anywhere near a 70 point pace with the quality of wingers that Draisaitl gets away from McDavid.

 

[luki here]

Didn't David Rundblad also have record breaking numbers in Sweden? What's he doing now?

Im not saying anything us certain, but giod numbers are good indicators, no?