Value of: Leon Draisaitl for a defenseman

[ManofSteel55]

In the future, McDavid, Mathews, Laine will be some of the best NHL players.

Sergachev probability:
- 95% chance he is a top 4D
- 80% chance he is a top 2D
- 70% chance he is a elite level #1D on most teams.

Can't wait to see the post reply arguments and twisting to support a silly debate that a top 10 pick in a deep draft are a huge risk.

Making up random numbers isn't evidence for anything. Reminds me of Steiner math. There is a 98% chance that Draisaitl is a #1 C, and a 88% chance that Faulk would re-sign with the Oilers, so that means there is 186% chance that the Oilers would be worse off by opting for Sergachev. (Google Steiner math and you'll understand)

What's is really silly is suggesting that a defensive prospect, even one like Sergachev, is close to as sure of a thing as a #1D (Faulk) or near elite #2C with #1C upside.

I wouldn't even trade Drai for current NHL'ers who were better ranked prospects than Sergachev, like Provorov or Werenski.

 

[57special]

I agree with 78% of the post above.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sergachev doesn't belong in the same sentence as McDavid, Laine, and Matthews.

I didn't put them in the same sentence

 

[Dbrownss]

In 3 years Faulk can be signed to an extension and will be in the middle of his prime as a #1 defenseman.

In 3 years Sergachev may not even be in the NHL.

Parayko addresses our needs much better than "The Mystery Box" Sergachev does.

Pfffft.....like an Oilers fan would know what they need...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Making up random numbers isn't evidence for anything. Reminds me of Steiner math. There is a 98% chance that Draisaitl is a #1 C, and a 88% chance that Faulk would re-sign with the Oilers, so that means there is 186% chance that the Oilers would be worse off by opting for Sergachev. (Google Steiner math and you'll understand)

What's is really silly is suggesting that a defensive prospect, even one like Sergachev, is close to as sure of a thing as a #1D (Faulk) or near elite #2C with #1C upside.

I wouldn't even trade Drai for current NHL'ers who were better ranked prospects than Sergachev, like Provorov or Werenski.

I can go and take you seriously but I know your joking so I won't

 

[ManofSteel55]

If you summarize all my posts it comes down to this... Yes it's a risk but it's a calculated risk. Here is how you acquire a #1D with offense.

1) Draft them. How many top 10 picks will the Oilers get now? Not many! But hey, you can get lucky and find them.

2) Trade for them with a player for player deal (PK for Weber kind of trade). Drai is the logical guy that gets you what you want. However, you not getting the Karlsson or Subban type. Your getting the Faulk type (not a bad option) but on a contract term that is not ideal for the Oilers.

3) Make a trade for a Subban/Karlsson type before the player becomes elite. A bit of a gamble but if you do your homework and take your time with it, the gamble is very calculated and at a very low risk of failure. There is plenty of time before McDavid enters his prime years of 22-30. Be strategic with it... Sergachev is one option but there are others!

You are completely missing that you can't calculate a guaranteed trajectory. "A bit of a gamble" - no, its a huge gamble. Monumental. You also seem to have this crazy notion that 3.5 years of Faulk is worth less than a prospect. That is absurd in itself, Faulk is a #1 defenseman in this league and would fill the exact hole that we have had for years. And there are no question marks there. You are totally overestimating and homerifying the value of your prospect here.

Not to mention that even if we were to consider trading Drai for a Sergachev level prospect, Sergachev isn't the main piece coming back in a trade. It would have to include a sure thing as well. Think Gallagher and Sergachev. And no, we aren't adding anything. Even that probably doesn't do it.

 

[bestmyfeeling]

In the future, McDavid, Mathews, Laine will be some of the best NHL players.

Sergachev probability:
- 95% chance he is a top 4D
- 80% chance he is a top 2D
- 70% chance he is a elite level #1D on most teams.

Can't wait to see the post reply arguments and twisting to support a silly debate that a top 10 pick in a deep draft are a huge risk.

oh man, you sure showed me, not once did i say a top 10 pick is a huge risk

i said a top 10 pick is just as likely to bust as he is to become these ELITE #1C/D/LW/RW/G

top 10 picks are obviously more likely to be NHL players then not, but how many are elite? lets look back:

2004: elite - ovechkin/malkin (2/10) busts- barker/montoya/olesz/picard/smid/valabik(6/10)
2005: elite players - crosby/price (2/10) busts - bourdon/lee/skille/brule (4/10)
2006: e - toews/backstrom (2/10) busts - sheppard (1/10)
2007: e - kane/couture/voracek (3/10) b - gagner/hammill/ellerby (3/10)
2008: e - stamkos/doughty/pietrangelo (3/10) b - filatov/hodgson/bailey (3/10)
2009: e - tavares/hedman/duchene/OEL (4/10) b - cowen/MPS/Glennie (3/10)
2010: e - hall/seguin (2/10) b - burmistrov/mcilrath (2/10)
2011: e - scheifele?/huberdeau? (2/10) b - strome? (1/10)
2012: e - lindholm? galchenyuk? (2/10) b - yakupov/reindhart (2/10)
.....etc....

outside of 2009 there have been just as many if not more "busts" then "elite" players

from 2013 on, i would say it's too early to determine if they will be "elite" or busts

but ya, you're right, 2016 is deep! no one in the top 10 will bust for sure!! sergachev 70%? if that was accurate he'd gone #2 to WPG, after all #1D > #1W #amiright

 

[ManofSteel55]

I can go and take you seriously but I know your joking so I won't

I wish you were joking. 1 sentence of my post is a joke. The rest is still true.

1) You are making up numbers. It doesn't strengthen your argument.

2) A prospect defenseman isn't worth what a #1D or #1B/2A center are.

3) Draisaitl = Faulk >>>> better prospect D than Sergachev >>> Sergachev

 

[Habs Halifax]

You are completely missing that you can't calculate a guaranteed trajectory. "A bit of a gamble" - no, its a huge gamble. Monumental. You also seem to have this crazy notion that 3.5 years of Faulk is worth less than a prospect. That is absurd in itself, Faulk is a #1 defenseman in this league and would fill the exact hole that we have had for years. And there are no question marks there. You are totally overestimating and homerifying the value of your prospect here.

Not to mention that even if we were to consider trading Drai for a Sergachev level prospect, Sergachev isn't the main piece coming back in a trade. It would have to include a sure thing as well. Think Gallagher and Sergachev. And no, we aren't adding anything. Even that probably doesn't do it.

Ok, you might as well go with option 1. Keep Drai and cross your fingers you draft that #1 offensive D in the next draft. That's not risky at all and I'm sure you'll get that Subban/Karlsson type. After all, you did get lucky and got McDavid right?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I wish you were joking. 1 sentence of my post is a joke. The rest is still true.

1) You are making up numbers. It doesn't strengthen your argument.

2) A prospect defenseman isn't worth what a #1D or #1B/2A center are.

3) Draisaitl = Faulk >>>> better prospect D than Sergachev >>> Sergachev

The post with the numbers was a joke that I can predict the future... go back and re-read the post I was replying to. No more clues for you

If you want the "Faulk" type return so bad, why don't you wait 2 years and make a similar trade? That way, at least you got the guy in McDavid's prime years. See my point?

 

[Jet Walters]

I thought we were "moving on" from Sergachev like 5 pages ago. Now there's an 80% chance this thread gets closed because of Sergachev.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I thought we were "moving on" from Sergachev like 5 pages ago. Now there's an 80% chance this thread gets closed because of Sergachev.

I did move on and started to evaluate Faulk but others kept on making Sergachev replies.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Ok, you might as well go with option 1. Keep Drai and cross your fingers you draft that #1 offensive D in the next draft. That's not risky at all and I'm sure you'll get that Subban/Karlsson type. After all, you did get lucky and got McDavid right?

It isn't risky, and it would be much smarter than trading a sure thing for a mystery box. If we are going to trade Draisaitl (we won't), then it won't be on a ridiculous gamble trade like you are proposing. When gambling, it is a bad gamble if you are giving up a ton, the odds of losing are good, and the best possible payout is the same as what you are giving up.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The post with the numbers was a joke that I can predict the future... go back and re-read the post I was replying to. No more clues for you

If you want the "Faulk" type return so bad, why don't you wait 2 years and make a similar trade? That way, at least you got the guy in McDavid's prime years. See my point?

Why would we even consider doing this trade now if we could still do it once the player is proven?

 

[bestmyfeeling]

Ok, you might as well go with option 1. Keep Drai and cross your fingers you draft that #1 offensive D in the next draft. That's not risky at all and I'm sure you'll get that Subban/Karlsson type. After all, you did get lucky and got McDavid right?

right!...how many #1 offensive D in the NHL today are drafted in the top 10? truly curious so i checked NHL.COM!

1. Karlsson
2. Burns
3. Markov
4. Shattenkirk
5. Hedman
6. Byfuglien
7. Letang
8. Weber
9. Fowler
10. Keith

take a look and see how many got drafted in the top 10 ....


spoiler....1! thank me later

 

[Habs Halifax]

It isn't risky, and it would be much smarter than trading a sure thing for a mystery box. If we are going to trade Draisaitl (we won't), then it won't be on a ridiculous gamble trade like you are proposing. When gambling, it is a bad gamble if you are giving up a ton, the odds of losing are good, and the best possible payout is the same as what you are giving up.

I agree its a small gamble but it's not a ridiculous one!

 

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

I thought we were "moving on" from Sergachev like 5 pages ago. Now there's an 80% chance this thread gets closed because of Sergachev.

Eh by page 5 it was pretty much done when Drai was valued at most likely Parayko or Faulk in terms of most reasonable. Now just somebody trying to sway us with his draft math.. I guess if he's right Nurse will most likely be a #1 elite defender and we have no worries about our D moving forward

 

[Habs Halifax]

right!...how many #1 offensive D in the NHL today are drafted in the top 10? truly curious so i checked NHL.COM!

1. Karlsson
2. Burns
3. Markov
4. Shattenkirk
5. Hedman
6. Byfuglien
7. Letang
8. Weber
9. Fowler
10. Keith

take a look and see how many got drafted in the top 10 ....


spoiler....1! thank me later

Good job! How about you wait and try to draft them. You got lucky and got McDavid. I'm sure you can get lucky again.

 

[Jet Walters]

Ok, you might as well go with option 1. Keep Drai and cross your fingers you draft that #1 offensive D in the next draft. That's not risky at all and I'm sure you'll get that Subban/Karlsson type. After all, you did get lucky and got McDavid right?

Quality defensemen emerge from deep in the draft, much more so than forwards. You talk about the next draft, but fail to acknowledge we have a couple prospects from the 2015 draft in Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear who are putting up more points than Sergachev this year in the WHL, a league that is harder to put up offense in.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Eh by page 5 it was pretty much done when Drai was valued at most likely Parayko or Faulk in terms of most reasonable. Now just somebody trying to sway us with his draft math.. I guess if he's right Nurse will most likely be a #1 elite defender and we have no worries about our D moving forward

I'm trying to help you from making a dumb trade in acquiring Faulk on that contract term or even worse... Parayko when the Oilers have similar players already

 

[Habs Halifax]

Quality defensemen emerge from deep in the draft, much more so than forwards. You talk about the next draft, but fail to acknowledge we have a couple prospects from the 2015 draft in Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear who are putting up more points than Sergachev this year in the WHL, a league that is harder to put up offense in.

We will see who makes the NHL as an impact D man.... starting next year!

 

[Starat327]

I'm trying to help you from making a dumb trade in acquiring Faulk on that contract term or even worse... Parayko when the Oilers have similar players already

The Oilers have approximately 0 players like Parayako.

 

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

I'm trying to help you from making a dumb trade in acquiring Faulk on that contract term or even worse... Parayko when the Oilers have similar players already

Eh we also have a D man in Nurse thats big ,fast ,has a good shot, and was drafted in the top 10, so why would we need Sergachev

 

[Jet Walters]

I'm trying to help you from making a dumb trade in acquiring Faulk on that contract term or even worse... Parayko when the Oilers have similar players already

Who do the Oilers have that is similar to Parayko?

 

[bestmyfeeling]

Who do the Oilers have that is similar to Parayko?

Filip Berglund
Defense -- shoots R
Born May 10 1997 -- Skelleftea, Sweden
[19 yrs. ago]
Height 6.03 -- Weight 209 [191 cm/95 kg]


DUH! 2016 DRAFT IS DEEP!!!!!!!!!