Series Talk: Leafs Vs Lightning- Thunderstruck

[IPS]

Leafs were easily the better team in game 3.

Your emotions are clouding your judgement.

Could say the same for you.

 

[sxvnert]

Tavares Matthews Marner
Nylander Kerfoot Kase
Mikheyev Kampf Engvall
Bunting Blackwell Spezza

 

[zeke]

Could say the same for you.

For the record the Bolts were clearly the better team in game 2, despite the fact that they didn't "keep their foot down" and let the Leafs made a spirited late game comeback attempt.

 

[HellasLEAF]

The score lines are out of whack, I think in some part from the tight officiating, but it's playing out exactly as forecasted by most with the double split.

All the pressure is on Toronto game 5 unfortunately with the knowledge a loss there could be series ending

 

[Mugzy97]

And the 2nd game lol.
If it goes to a 7th game we are finished.

Well no, not factually.

 

[colchar]

adding in shots, unblocked shot attempts, and total shot attempts just to flesh out the small samples here:


1st Lines

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov: 24.4min, 50.0gf%, 24.3xgf%, 28.6sf%, 32.8ff%, 46.2cf%

Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 19.3min, 100.0gf%, 23.2xgf%, 34.9sf%, 34.6ff%, 33.3cf%
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner: 11.2min, 66.7gf%, 58.5xgf%, 43.2sf%, 48.8ff%, 44.6cf%

2nd Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli: 26.2min, 0.0gf%, 52.8xgf%, 54.5sf%, 55.5ff%, 62.9cf%

Nylander-Tavares-Kase: 11.3min, 0.0gf%, 64.2xgf%, 64.9sf%, 58.8ff%, 47.4cf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase: 7.1min, 0.0gf%, 44.4xgf%, 40.9sf%, 46.8ff%, 34.0cf%

3rd Lines

Hagel-Paul-Colton: 29.6min, 33.3gf%, 59.3xg%, 52.3sf%, 56.6ff%, 55.9cf%

Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall: 21.2min, 0.0gf%, 41.4xgf%, 55.9sf%, 53.7ff%, 48.4cf%
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander: 8.1min, 0.0gf%, 80.8xgf%, 68.8sf%, 65.1ff%, 68.0cf%

4th Lines

Maroon-Bellemare-Perry: 18.3min, 50.7gf%, 50.4xgf%, 53.8sf%, 49.7ff%, 59.8cf%

n/a (but all combos have largely been trash so far except in the few shifts that Engvall took on the 4th line)



1st Pairs

Hedman-Cernak: 34.9min, 62.7gf%, 76.7xgf%, 58.2sf%, 60.9ff%, 66.4cf%

Muzzin-Brodie: 46.1min, 67.3gf%, 58.1xgf%, 58.7sf%, 58.7ff%, 53.2cf%

2nd Pairs

McDonagh-Bogosian: 29.4min, 67.3gf%, 43.5xgf%, 51.0sf%, 49.6ff%, 55.9cf%
McDonagh-Cernak: 12.6min, 0.0gf%, 47.9xgf%, 48.0sf%, 44.0ff%, 52.3cf%
McDonagh-Foote: 12.2min, 0.0gf%, 58.8xgf%, 47.6sf%, 48.0ff%, 53.2cf%

Rielly-Lyubushkin: 41.6min, 26.0gf%, 39.6xgf%, 39.0sf%, 41.6ff%, 37.9cf%

3rd Pairs

Sergachev-Foote: 30.2min, 0.0gf%, 45.8xgf%, 45.5sf%, 45.5ff%, 56.6cf%

Giordano-Liljegren: 21.7min, 64.3gf%, 33.2xgf%, 52.8sf%, 43.1ff%, 43.4cf%
Giordano-Holl: 15.8min, 0.0gf%, 76.3xgf%, 60.6sf%, 57.5ff%, 47.2cf%

Christ, these so-called 'advanced' stats are so effing stupid. But Kyle "Spreadsheet' Dubas worships at that altar so we end up with this team, which doesn't seem to be built for the grind of the playoffs.

 

[bossram]

Tavares Matthews Marner
Nylander Kerfoot Kase
Mikheyev Kampf Engvall
Bunting Blackwell Spezza

Yep, I agree with these lines.

Tavares is too slow to drive his own line, particularly in a series like this. But he is one of the Core Four and they need to maximize whatever they can get out of him. He can still cycle effectively and is good in front of the net. Put him next to Marner and Matthews like a premium version of Bunting. With Bunting injured, he can't really contribute any higher than the 4th line anyway.

Kerfoot centering Nylander was the Leafs' best combination against Montreal last season. Put them back together.

As for the defense, Boosh has to come out. Holl honestly wasn't that bad last game. When Boosh is out, the puck just doesn't ever leave the Leafs' end.

Muzzin - Brodie
Giordano - Holl
Rielly - Liljegren

Keefe has last change. You can get Muzzin-Brodie out against Stamkos and Kucherov. You can get Rielly and Liljegren soft matchups in the O-zone (ideally with the top line).

 

[Mugzy97]

It’s funny how it’s tied 2-2 but there’s a large amount of people who think the series is over

 

[ACC1224]

It’s funny how it’s tied 2-2 but there’s a large amount of people who think the series is over

Depends what team shows up.
The game 1 and 3 team or the game 2 and 4 team?

 

[IPS]

Christ, these so-called 'advanced' stats are so effing stupid. But Kyle "Spreadsheet' Dubas worships at that altar so we end up with this team, which doesn't seem to be built for the grind of the playoffs.

These advanced stats don't mean jack shit in the playoffs. And its funny cause these stats jockeys think we're the 2010-2015 Chicago Blackhawks who are only being held back by getting "goalie'd" every series.

 

[All Mod Cons]

It’s funny how it’s tied 2-2 but there’s a large amount of people who think the series is over

I wonder if they are using experience in their decision making?

These advanced stats don't mean jack shit in the playoffs. And its funny cause these stats jockeys think we're the 2010-2015 Chicago Blackhawks who are only being held back by getting "goalie'd" every series.

And refs

If there were no goalies, refs, fans, media or 4th line wingers, we'd be awesome.

 

[DcW]

Kase and Blackwell can sit for me. Kase isn’t ready and Blackwell has been the definition of “just a guy”. Spezza provides way more in my opinion and we know what Clifford brings. Blackwell does a lot of things ok and nothing really well.

 

[Apex Predator]

I’m good with Speeza sitting. He’s been meh the 2 games he played. Regardless of how this season ends I think it’s time to move on from Speeza.

 

[zeke]

TB Series last 3 years

Vs. TOR*: 4gms, .500win%, -0.50gdiff/gm (in progress)
Vs. NYI2: 7gms, .571win%, +1.29gdiff/gm
Vs. DAL: 6gms, .667win%, +0.50gdiff/gm
Vs. FLA: 6gms, .667win%, +1.17gdiff/gm
Vs. NYI1: 6gms, .667win%, +1.33gdiff/gm
Vs. CBJ: 5gms, .800win%, +0.20gdiff/gm
Vs. CAR: 5gms, .800win%, +1.00gdiff/gm
Vs. BOS: 5gms, .800win%, +1.80gdiff/gm
Vs. MTL: 5gms, .800win%, +1.80gdiff/gm


After 4gms only:

Vs TOR: 2-2, -0.50gdiff/gm
Vs NYI2: 2-2, +0.25gdiff/gm
Vs CBJ: 3-1, +0.25gdiff/gm
Vs DAL: 3-1, +0.50gdiff/gm
Vs CAR: 3-1, +0.75gdiff/gm
Vs FLA: 3-1, +1.50gdiff/gm
Vs NYI1: .3-1, +2.00gdiff/gm
Vs BOS: 3-1, +2.00gdiff/gm
Vs MTL: 3-1, +2.00gdiff/gm

These advanced stats don't mean jack shit in the playoffs. And its funny cause these stats jockeys think we're the 2010-2015 Chicago Blackhawks who are only being held back by getting "goalie'd" every series.

funny cuz the people who hate advanced stats thought the bolts would kill us.

 

[sxvnert]

Yep, I agree with these lines.

Tavares is too slow to drive his own line, particularly in a series like this. But he is one of the Core Four and they need to maximize whatever they can get out of him. He can still cycle effectively and is good in front of the net. Put him next to Marner and Matthews like a premium version of Bunting. With Bunting injured, he can't really contribute any higher than the 4th line anyway.

Kerfoot centering Nylander was the Leafs' best combination against Montreal last season. Put them back together.

As for the defense, Boosh has to come out. Holl honestly wasn't that bad last game. When Boosh is out, the puck just doesn't ever leave the Leafs' end.

Muzzin - Brodie
Giordano - Holl
Rielly - Liljegren

Keefe has last change. You can get Muzzin-Brodie out against Stamkos and Kucherov. You can get Rielly and Liljegren soft matchups in the O-zone (ideally with the top line).

Matty can then cheat on the faceoff dot and if hes thrown out, JT can win it. At the very least he can provide a defensive conscious and a second one timer target for Marner to hit.

 

[Havoc]

Tavares Matthews Marner
Nylander Kerfoot Kase
Mikheyev Kampf Engvall
Bunting Blackwell Spezza

That first line was a complete bust versus the jackets.

I want to see JT-Matthews and Marner-Nylander duos

 

[sxvnert]

That first line was a complete bust versus the jackets.

I want to see JT-Matthews and Marner-Nylander duos

Nylander Matthews Kase
JT Kerfoot Marner
Mikheyev Kampf Engvall
Bunting Blackwell Spezza

JT needs to be on the wing.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Tavares - Kase
Kerfoot - Kampf - Marner
Clifford - Blackwell- Simmonds

I'm ready to be bullied.

 

[Havoc]

For the record I stand by choosing Leafs in 4.

But when I chose that, I didn't know we were in the business of rewarding depth during the do or die months of hockey.

Teams win cups because some of the depth players step up, but the key word there is depth. You don't become reactionary and start tinkering (saw this word used so I'm stealing it) and over-coaching. The minute you do that you start wiping out all the benefits of "depth" stepping up.

If I knew Keefe was gonna Keefe it up I'd have chosen Leafs in 6 or 7. Shame on me for thinking we were out of the Babcock dark ages type of stuff but I should have saw this coming after he ran Thornton and Simmonds on PP1 last year.


Anyway less than 24 hours until puck drop so I'll stop bullying Keefe and start a clean slate for game 5. Let's goooooooooooo

edit- Oh yeah how'd I forget...#FreeLil2022 PM me if you're making t-shirts

 

[DraftSchmaft]

#FreeLil2022 PM me if you're making t-shirts

LMAO I will wear this 100% for game 5 as well

Whoever is going to MLS please represent our boy Lil

 

[HockeyAndWings]

He didn't just create momentum last night - he created a 1-0 lead for Tampa the very first minute of the game.

I feel the team is less confident overall when Holl is playing, and Liljegren should be slotted in.

The 2 goals that Holl was on were pivotal and involved the beginning of the onslot by TB in game 3, and the first goal in game 4, was the beginning of the meltdown in game 4.

Lyubushkin provides some sandpaper and toughness on the backend, but it is either Lyubushkin or Holl that is the 6th defenseman at this point.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Let's see if Simmonds has learned his lesson...

Bunting Tavares Marner
Mikheyev Matthews Nylander
Engvall Kampf Kase
Clifford Blackwell Simmonds

Reilly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Giordano Liljegren

Campbell

 

[MarMarSab3]

Let's see if Simmonds has learned his lesson...

Bunting Tavares Marner
Mikheyev Matthews Nylander
Engvall Kampf Kase
Clifford Blackwell Simmonds

Reilly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Giordano Liljegren

Campbell

Why no Kerfoot? He should be in the lineup

 

[A1LeafNation]

Why no Kerfoot? He should be in the lineup

Missed it.

Bunting Tavares Marner
Mikheyev Matthews Nylander
Engvall Kampf Kase
Clifford Kerfoot Simmonds

 

[Seras]

Best of 3 with 2 home games, go leafs go!