Pre-Game Talk: Leafs @ Ottawa ACC 2.0 on 19th Sep Mod Warning Post #116

[DD03]

Kessel has been a better playmaker then he has been a better shooter in the past 2 or 3 seasons. Why are people just using goals? Phil does a hell of a lot more then just score goals.. Bobby on the other hand..

 

[Mess]

How did they compare last year? Without even looking I'm guessing it's not in Ryan's favour.

2012-13 .. Jiri Tlusty 23 goals .. Kessel 20 goals

How accurate are the anomalies of lockout shorten seasons, and much weight should be placed on them to make conclusions?

The smaller the sample set the more inaccurate the results, so full seasons under normal conditions are more accurate.

I expect the based on my 4 year projection of full seasons that Bobby Ryan and Phil Kessel potentially should be relatively close in goals. As the difference from 2008-09 - 2011-12 was 5 games played and 4 goal difference over 4 years of results.

Ryan and Clarkson are not similar style players, however Kessel is.

 

[DD03]

2012-13 .. Jiri Tlusty 23 goals .. Kessel 20 goals

How accurate are the anomalies of lockout shorten seasons, and much weight should be placed on them to make conclusions?

The smaller the sample set the more inaccurate the results, so full seasons under normal conditions are more accurate.

I expect the based on my 4 year projection of full seasons that Bobby Ryan and Phil Kessel potentially should be relatively close in goals. As the difference from 2008-09 - 2011-12 was 5 games played and 4 goal difference over 4 years of results.

Why are you randomly bringing up Jiri Tlusty who got top line minutes this year? Instead of just pointing out that the lock-out shortened season doesn't mean squat, why don't you realize who Tlusty played with? No one is bringing up Chris Kunitz or Pascal Dupuis, because that's who they play with, and to make things even worse, if you compare who Ryan has played with compared to Phil, then Phil is absolutely blowing Bobby out of the water. Tlusty played with Staal, he's going to score more. Simple as that.

This is just silliness. There is so much more to comparing two players then goals and games played.

 

[RoyalGremlin]

What channel tonight? Im on a phone cant surf too well.

 

[Atomos2]

Lines via Hendrick:

JVR-Colborne-Clarkson
Raymond-Bolland-Kuli
Broll-Kadri-Abbott
Ashton-McClement-Devine

Struck by fact Carlyle isn't putting Kadri with Clarkson, since they will certainly play together. Joe is getting a big chance tonight to prove himself.

I'm guessing the Bolland Kuli Raymond line will be matched up against the Spezza line

 

[Mess]

Why are you randomly bringing up Jiri Tlusty who got top line minutes this year? Instead of just pointing out that the lock-out shortened season doesn't mean squat, why don't you realize who Tlusty played with? No one is bringing up Chris Kunitz or Pascal Dupuis, because that's who they play with, and to make things even worse, if you compare who Ryan has played with compared to Phil, then Phil is absolutely blowing Bobby out of the water. Tlusty played with Staal, he's going to score more. Simple as that.

This is just silliness. There is so much more to comparing two players then goals and games played.

Some fans want to put a lot of weight on the erratic lockout shortened results claiming Bobby Ryan and Clarkson are equals. I just used a single example to emphasize the error of their ways.

I showed that over the previous 300+ games prior to the lockout Ryan & Kessel have similar goal production.

Are you expecting Ryan and Clarkson to be comparables this season?

 

[Mess]

what channel tonight? Im on a phone cant surf too well.

tsn

 

[Muston Atthews]

I like that big Joe is getting the big line minutes tonight with kadri on the third line for insurance in case he falters. That line is pretty damn big, should be good on the cycle. I also like the Raymond-bolland-kulemin line to see how that line would work as our 3rd line. I hope that broll and Devine decide to take some heads off tonight, they've been pretty quiet.

On the kessel/Ryan debate, kessel is miles ahead of Ryan. Ryan is a poor mans kessel with limited playmaking ability

 

[DD03]

Some fans want to put a lot of weight on the erratic lockout shortened results claiming Bobby Ryan and Clarkson are equals. I just used a single example to emphasize the error of their ways.

I showed that over the previous 300+ games prior to the lockout Ryan & Kessel have similar goal production.

Are you expecting Ryan and Clarkson to be comparables this season?

Two completely different kind of players. No. And I don't expect Clarkson to play with the talent Ryan will or get the PP time.

 

[zeke]

love trying to deduct things out of preseason lines....usually it's an exercise in futility, but this year I think Randy's getting down to business ASAP.

Not sure whether this is a chance for Colborne to impress the coaches....or whether it's a showcase for a potentially immenent trade (i.e. packaged with Liles). Either way, he's clearly being given a shot at top 6 duty here, and I'm not sure how many more he'll get.

Love seeing Raymond-Bolland-Kulemin already pretty much set as the third line, and it's also looking safe to say that Ashton and Devane are the first-shot replacements for McLaren and Orr if needed. Ashton's gritty performance this preseason may have actually put Colborne on the outs as much as anything - Ashton may just have flat out beat him out for that 4th line W spot already.

Nice to see Broll and Abbott getting rewarded by playing with Naz, too. Abbott in particular has been pretty dang impressive this preseason. Lots of skill there.

Can't take much out of the defense pairings, though - obviously just pairing up the kids with the vets here. Nice to see Percy rewarded for his good work so far.


All in all a pretty full lineup. Pretty much just missing:

Lupul - Bozak - Kessel (1st line)

Gardiner - Franson (2nd pair)

Orr/McLaren are injured, but replacing them with Ashton/Devane is no downgrade. Liles/Fraser are also missing, but replacing the 6/7 guys with our top kids isn't a downgrade either. And Reimer isn't there either but Bernier may not be a downgrade there, either, even though Reims loves playing the Sens in particular.


Basically, Randy's not ****ing around this preseason, which I like to see. He's playing only his regular players and the direct challengers for callup duty, and playing them in realistic combinations. Love not wasting the preseason.

 

[zeke]

So Ryan, in two down years, scored more points than Clarkson had in his two career years? And makes less money? Awesome!

Yep, your STUD STAR TOP WINGER has eked out a few more points and blocks than our crappy overpaid #4 winger the past couple of years, but our crappy overpaid #4 winger has scored more goals and thrown many more hits (and fights) than your STUD STAR TOP WINGER the past couple of years.

And your STUD TOP WINGER makes 150K less, but cost you guys three top young assets to land....and is UFA shortly. Ouch, that's an expensive rental.

 

[Mr Scarface*]

l


Basically, Randy's not ****ing around this preseason, which I like to see. He's playing only his regular players and the direct challengers for callup duty, and playing them in realistic combinations. Love not wasting the preseason.

Randy really is a hard ass and I loves that too. Nobody can **** with us now, Our team is the hardest. Carlyle is one of the best coaches in the world. He has great attributes. Plays with the toughest.

 

[Mess]

Two completely different kind of players. No. And I don't expect Clarkson to play with the talent Ryan will or get the PP time.

So we agree Ryan and Clarkson are poor comparisons to expect similar production from completely different style players and different situations.

I wouldn't compare Ryan to Clarkson anymore than I would compare Chris Neil to Phil Kessel.

That said if Clarkson can score at Ryan's +30 goal historical level than his signing might go down as the best in NHL history.

 

[DD03]

So we agree Ryan and Clarkson are poor comparisons to expect similar production from completely different style players and different situations.

That said if Clarkson can score at Ryan's +30 goal historical level than his signing might go down as the best in NHL history.

Exactly. It's the same reason why I wouldn't compare Kessel to Ryan before. Kessel was a #1 option and the main catalyst in his offense. Ryan was a #3 option with two of the best offensive producers in the league.

 

[zeke]

Out of curiosity why are you only using the last 128 games? Why not back it up to 2010-2011 season when Clarkson played a full 82 games? Does it have anything to do with the fact that he scored 12 goals and was a -20?

Just as reference Ryan played 82 games that season as well however he scored 31 goals.

Clarkson is definitely not a crappy winger however your comparison sucks.

I always use 2yr splits, for better or for worse. Find them to be the least misleading numbers, at least in terms of unweighted numbers.

 

[zeke]

My comparison was as lacking as yours. To call a 30 goal man craptastic is pretty ridiculous. One down (lockout shortened) season does not a craptastic winger make. At the same time, I don't believe one 30 goal season means a guy is worth $5.25 on a 7 year term.

well, I wouldn't be too stoked if my #1 stud winger was just a 55pt type guy the last coupla years, myself.

 

[paulster2626]

2012-13 .. Jiri Tlusty 23 goals .. Kessel 20 goals

How accurate are the anomalies of lockout shorten seasons, and much weight should be placed on them to make conclusions?

The smaller the sample set the more inaccurate the results, so full seasons under normal conditions are more accurate.

I expect the based on my 4 year projection of full seasons that Bobby Ryan and Phil Kessel potentially should be relatively close in goals. As the difference from 2008-09 - 2011-12 was 5 games played and 4 goal difference over 4 years of results.

Ryan and Clarkson are not similar style players, however Kessel is.

Did Chicago win the cup last season, or does that not count either?

 

[Quares27]

Could be battling for bottom 6 job. Insurance incase Raymond gets injured for some reason.

I highly doubt Carlyle is going to be putting a 5'9 180 pound minor league scorer in his bottom 6

 

[bert]

1: Karlsson is a an offensively talented player like I stated too and know the fact, but he will never, ever win a cup in the NHL because of his poor defensive skill. He is exactly the type of player who will fail always in the playoffs in a long run. Soft and mellow, who can only play point producing offensive game. Crumbles under pressure in his own end.

2: Toughness is very important. Mentally and physically tough teams often, OFTEN win cups in the NHL and in every sport. Ottawa is soft.

4: Injuries happen to everybody. A team has to just deal with it. Like Carlyle and us did. We are better and harder. Ottawa's soft players might be injured again, because it tends to happen to tender players.

5: Alfie should have stayed no matter what if we look at the organization and team of ottawa. Ottawa without Alfie is worse now.

6: Chicago has other great abilities that makes it a winning club. Offensively and speed wise they are superior. Skill has been given to them as well. A team in todays NHL can win with a lot of tricks and spells. Offensive speed and superior skill, hard toughness and hits are the most important with these new rules. We have great speed and major toughess and hitting power now. Ottawa is very weak and so soft. There are others as well. Can't see them winning the cup at all. Not this season clearly. Poor mananing. Our managing is very well. Our speed, hitting power and coaching are much better than ottawas.

He is statistically the best at getting out of his own end by a wide margin. However keep em coming I love reading this stuff. Tricks and Spells eh please elaborate

 

[zeke]

The more accurate comparable is Kessel and not Clarkson

Bobby Ryan @$ 5.1 mil

2008-09 .. Games: 64 .. Goals: 31
2009-10 .. Games: 81 .. Goals: 35
2010-11 .. Games: 82 .. Goals: 34
2011-12 .. Games: 82 .. Goals: 31

Totals ..... Games: 309 .. Goals: 131

Phil Kessel @$5.4 mil

2008-09 .. Games: 70 .. Goals: 36
2009-10 .. Games: 70 .. Goals: 30
2010-11 .. Games: 82 .. Goals: 32
2011-12 .. Games: 82 .. Goals: 37

Totals ..... Games: 304 .. Goals: 135

usually looking at numbers from 3+ seasons ago deceives more than it enlightens, from my experience.

Last 2 years:

W P.Kessel (26): 130gms, 57gls, 134pts, 28ht, 44bk, 19:57 (82gms, 36gls, 85pts, 18ht, 28bk)
W J.Lupul (30): 82gms, 36gls, 85pts, 141ht, 32bk, 18:07 (82gms, 36gls, 85pts, 141ht, 32bk)
W B.Ryan (26): 128gms, 42gls, 87pts, 193ht, 53bk, 17:43 (82gms, 27gls, 56pts, 124ht, 34bk)
W J.VanRiemsdyk (24): 91gms, 29gls, 56pts, 92ht, 33bk, 17:15 (82gms, 26gls, 51pts, 83ht, 30bk)
W D.Clarkson (29): 128gms, 45gls, 70pts, 253ht, 25bk, 16:50 (82gms, 29gls, 45pts, 162ht, 16bk)

in terms of more recent relevant performance, the most reasonable leaf comparison for Bobby would be fellow 2nd overall pick VanRiemsdyk.

There's a chance (though far from a guarantee) that Bobby gets back to his peak 70pt type production again, though....but that still puts him well behind the likes of Kessel and Lupul who have both been PPG+ the past couple of years, while a guy like JVR has a chance to get into that 70pt range, too.

 

[p.l.f.]

That last game was really boring.
The practices are more important

 

[Suntouchable13]

Usually these games against Ottawa during preseason are fairly entertaining. Certainly can't do much worse than the last game.

 

[SprDaVE]

I highly doubt Carlyle is going to be putting a 5'9 180 pound minor league scorer in his bottom 6

I think he's being tested as a top 6 callup player.

Abbott is fairly skilled and is a good skater. Also great vision on the ice. He's not very big and obviously not a physical player.

So if the injuries pile on, Abbott could be a solid callup this year. Testing him out with Kadri is a good one to try.

 

[Azura]

So Bernier's playing tonight and of course I have to work! Damn, I wanted to see his second game, especially since it sounds like he may be playing the whole one.

 

[TootooTrain]

I highly doubt Carlyle is going to be putting a 5'9 180 pound minor league scorer in his bottom 6

Raymond is barely 6' and 185. Injuries make decisions for you sometimes. There's a reason he's still up. They must see something they like. He's a nice little player, good skater. Not much of a future but a decent call-up.