HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
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Leafs need to address the goaltending.
- Thread starter LEAFANFORLIFE23
- Start date
Evilhomer
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2019
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Like clockwork.
A1LeafNation
Obsession beats talent everytime!!
- Oct 17, 2010
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Jimmy Firecracker
Fire Sheldon.
I would be open to a Woll/Talbot/(Murray 3rd) tandem next season if Sammys demands are too high. Much rather focus all remaining cap space on 6 legit D.
3 of those goals he literally didn't even move on there wasn't even an attempt at a save.
OR DON'T cheap out on goaltending unless you can get somebody that's both good and cheap, somebody like Varlamov would fit that bill.
Otherwise don't cheap out on the most important position in hockey.
We tried that with both Campbell and Samsonov it hasn't worked.
I'd like somebody that I don't have to go into every game going "I hope he doesn't f*** it up tonight."
I guess you missed my post in the PGT tonight, so I'll present it here to ask your opinion on the evidence I presented. I hope you don't mind. Quoting myself...
"Since Jan. 1/24:
Jordan Binnington, 26 games, 2.46 GAA, .923 Sv%, 2 SO, 15 wins.
Connor Hellybuck, 29 games, 2.50 GAA, .920 Sv%, 3 SO, 15 wins.
Ilya Samsonov, 20 games, 2.43 GAA, .914 Sv%, 2 SO, 15 wins.
Why you keep wanting to die on this hill is beyond me. Nobody on this board, or at least A LOT of the people here, were well aware that Samsonov had a horrible start to the year. You were preaching to the converted. However, why can you not see that his play since Jan. has been substantially better?
People were down on Bertuzzi for his play up until a couple of months ago. But he's now potted 13 goals in his last 21 games, and as far as I can tell the general opinion of his play has improved. It isn't a fault to acknowledge that a player can be more than one thing in a season."
Along with being the 16th fastest goalie in NHL history to reach the 100 win mark (thank you
@Jimmy Firecracker ) why do you stand in the face of data which opposes your view? I just don't get your undying criticism of a goalie who has turned his season around. Please explain why.
Evilhomer
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2019
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I don't get how you can rag on Samsonov and then simultaneously propose Varlamov, who is a far worse goalie.
Yeah that's the entire problem, he has the ability to look spectacular, and look like dog shit in the same game.
That's very very VERY NOT a good thing at all.
And Vegas "tried that" with Logan Thompson, and Adin Hill, and Laurent Broissoit, and Jonathan Quick; before eventually going back to Adin Hill... and what happened?
If we look at recent memory, you have the two polar ends of the extreme....
Vegas... Hill @ $2.1m
Colorado... Kuemper @ $2.25m
Tampa... Vasy @ $9.5m
Tampa... Vasy @ $3.5m
St. Louis... Binnington @ $650k
Washington... Holtby @ $6.1m
Pittsburgh... Murray @ ELC
Pittsburgh... Murray @ ELC
Obviously, the vast majority of cups have been won by guys getting paid far less than "#1" money. The year Vasi won the cup at $9.5m, was also the year the Lighting kept Kucherov on the LTIR the entire season.
The real important thing, seems to be having your goalie "get hot", and having a team infront of him that is constructed as if the goalie had a minimal salary.
Call me crazy... but of the available goalies out there (Fleury, Gibson, Markstrom, Talbot, Samsonov, Varlamov) -- seems to me that the best one is probably going to be whichever you can get on the cheapest contract.
Kuemper wasn't making 2.25 he was making 4.5 so that one is just a lie to make your point.
Murray was a huge part of those penguin cups but so was MAF you don't get to ignore that.
Holtby made 6.1 which is #1 money.
Binner and Hill are solid examples.
At the end of the day though ceaping out on goaltending hasn't worked for Leafs so stop doing it.
I'm a Leaf fan, I don't care if it worked in Vegas or St Louis.
Has cheap goaltending worked here?
The answer is no so stop doing it because it doesn't work here.
Except he has significantly better numbers so he's not.
The difference is Varlamov is on a much worse team.
If the Leafs got 910 goaltending they'd be at the top of the east.
I'm not asking for a Vezina winner, just a guy that can put up 910 goaltending, the offense will do the rest.
NJG
Registered User
- Jun 27, 2015
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It's the consistency of the defence that's missing, the defence is already mediocre at best. So if they aren't consistent we have below mediocre defence. But sure let's blame the goalies. If anyone thinks we're going anywhere with this defence you're delusional. The problem with this team is the lack-luster defence and always has been.
That's their MO.
They hitch themselves to a goalie, and then eventually move onto another goalie. Before Varlamov, it was Gibson Gibson Gibson!!
Evilhomer
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2019
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What is Samsonov's save percentage in his last 10 or 20 games? I suspect it is better than Varlamov's during the same period. I understand people wanting to upgrade, but spending big money on a goalie is a terrible roster construction idea.
Sorry, you're (somewhat) correct. Kuemper was making $3.5m on Colorado's books. What another team may have been paying him doesn't factor into the equation.
Just because cheap goaltending hasn't worked here, doesn't mean expensive goaltending will.
The reality is, you want to go from an Ilya Samsonov to Jacob Markstrom or John Gibson, it's going to mean you've gotta go from a TJ Brodie to a Joel Edmundson; or a Max Domi to Alex Steeves up front.
The reality is, there's handful, probably less than 2 handfulls, of "great" goalies in this league. Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, Helebuyck, Sorokin, Saros, Demko. Ullmark & Swayman probably in this group, or at least on the borderline, considering their outstanding play, with the knock being that they haven't done the 55+ games.
Having a great goaltender (which there are probably less than 10 of in the league) will almost gaurantee you a playoff berth; barring complete incompetence or horrible luck infront of them.
However, having one of those guys will also have a decent chance of being the reason you lose a playoff series when they get out-goalied by a lesser known guy getting hot, or simply running into a team that is all that much better infront of him because they didn't spend $6m+ on a goalie.
Ultimately, the real problem that the Leafs have, is that they don't really ever get "outstanding" performances relative to cap hit; and if they do, there's somebody else not pulling their weight.
Overall, Marner, Rielly, Matthews and Nylander all delivered last playoff with roughly a point per game.... but Tavares didn't impact as $11m should; and the contributions fell off substantially after that.
Vegas had Marchessault at $5m put up 13 goals and 25 points in 22 games. Chandler Stephenson had 10/10/20 in 22, for $2.75m. Ivan Barbashev had 18 points, William Karlsson had 17.
Florida had Verhaege put up 17 points for $4.2m. Bennett 15 points for $4.4m... etc.
The real problem for the Leafs, is that thier roster is poorly constructed for the playoffs, with far too many passengers expecting to ride the coattails of a star player.
Evilhomer
Registered User
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I would reduce your list to the bolded only. Vasi continues to live off his reputation despite mediocre numbers (enough with the injury excuse at this point), Demko hasn't done it for long enough yet, and the two Boston goalies benefit from a system in front of them. Of the bolded group, the only one with a chance to win anything in the playoffs is Shesterkin.
Namikaze Minato
Registered User
AI art is f***in weird, Sammy posted this on his Insta to celebrate his 100 career wins.
Jimmy Firecracker
Fire Sheldon.
Since January 14th when Samsonov was recalled from his conditioning stint, he ranks 13th among goalies who’ve played 15+ games in save percentage with .912%. Sammy also ranks 10th in GAA with a 2.51 GAA.
Lowering the threshold to just 10 games, which is the amount Varlamov has played since Sammy’s return, Varlamov ranks 33rd with a save percentage of .903%, and 35th in GAA with a 2.91 GAA. Samsonov’s numbers remain the same but his rank drops to 22nd for SV%, and 17th for GAA.
Samsonov was atrocious to start the year. But it’s disingenuous to ignore that there’s a very clear difference in his play from before being sent down and afterwards. If the Sammy we have now has shown up to start the year we would be battling for 1st in the Division but it just wasn’t meant to be. Home ice is overrated anyway, at least with this team. We’re much better on the road in the playoffs under Keefe when he can’t dictate matchups.
Maple Leaf
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- Sep 18, 2009
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Ya, that's a fair assessment as well... and just furthers my point of the "problem" with investing big into goalies.
Even Shesterkin -- who's paid $5.6m.... Kotchekov's been almsot as good for a fraction of the price. Daccord has better numbers than Shesterkin.
