LD Jakob Chychrun - Sarnia Sting, OHL (2016 Draft)

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Outside McKenzie's top 10

Comes in at 13th. 4th ranked D.

McKenzie is going to do a segment on why he dropped coming up.

 

[Steamwhistle]

How comparable is Chychrun to draft day Luke Schenn? Barely got to see too many Sarnia games because they only played the Storm at home once or twice, which I wasn't able to make.

 

[93LEAFS]

How comparable is Chychrun to draft day Luke Schenn? Barely got to see too many Sarnia games because they only played the Storm at home once or twice, which I wasn't able to make.

Very different players. Chychrun has alot more offensive ability and is an elite skater.

 

[Mark Edwards]

I don't even get why he's dropped so far.... in April it seemed like he was still a consensus top 5 pick, and then he had a great playoff series for the Sting, and now most people have him outside the top 10. How does this happen? It can't just be the U18s. This guy will be a steal wherever he goes.

I've been saying for quite a while that he was falling. We moved him down to 9th in February and I told people that I knew many scouts who had him outside the top 10. I was SHOCKED when Bob still had him as his top ranked D in his mid term rankings. At that point he was 3rd at best for me and I didn't know a single scout who had him as their top Dman. Most liked Serg or Juolevi as their top guy.

It's hockey IQ related for myself and almost every scout I spoke to about him this year. He's not dumb, but scouts who dropped him rank him below the big D ahead of him in that category. I do want to stress that I like Chychrun and think he will be a good NHL'er - He just got passed by guys we liked more.

So was Sean Day....... Whose had a much worse fall.

Not amongst the scouts I speak to. He failed to impress them right from his rookie season. I've heard nothing but negatives about Day from NHL scouts since day 1 in the league. He certainly didn't impress me or our other scouts. Poor hockey IQ and lazy way too often. Losing 1 on 1 battles to 5'9" ish guys on a consistent basis tends to hurt your draft stock as well.

We got some nasty comments sent our way after not ranking him in our 2015 Black Book early 2016 top 30 last June. He wasn't really close to making our list. Funny that some of the people spewing the venom at us had him out of their first rounds pretty quickly after the season started.

 

[Hansen]

I've been saying for quite a while that he was falling. We moved him down to 9th in February and I told people that I knew many scouts who had him outside the top 10. I was SHOCKED when Bob still had him as his top ranked D in his mid term rankings. At that point he was 3rd at best for me and I didn't know a single scout who had him as their top Dman. Most liked Serg or Juolevi as their top guy.

It's hockey IQ related for myself and almost every scout I spoke to about him this year. He's not dumb, but scouts who dropped him rank him below the big D ahead of him in that category. I do want to stress that I like Chychrun and think he will be a good NHL'er - He just got passed by guys we liked more.

Would you say that Chychrun has one of the higher floors out of any of the top rated dmen however?

I could see him very easily becoming a Sbisa-type player with potential to be far better offensively or improve from there. IMO could be considered a big steal if he goes out of the top 10 and can play at an NHL level soon.

 

[Nucker101]

He's still a very good prospect, but just watching his games compared to guys like Juolevi, Sergachev and even Bean leaves me wanting more from Chychrun. Maybe it is a case of expectations being too high and him being "over scouted" but if he wasn't so hyped up originally, I don't think many people would have him ranked top 10 in this draft based on his play this season.

 

[Coach Parker]

He's still a very good prospect, but just watching his games compared to guys like Juolevi, Sergachev and even Bean leaves me wanting more from Chychrun. Maybe it is a case of expectations being too high and him being "over scouted" but if he wasn't so hyped up originally, I don't think many people would have him ranked top 10 in this draft based on his play this season.

Didn't help that Fabbro also outplayed him at the U-18s.

 

[Ace]

It's preseason poll syndrome. People had him so high before the year expecting him to take a step that he has to slowly slide when he doesn't. If you started from ground zero he'd end up lower.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

If you go back and watch all the film (and I mean all of it), you'll find that Chychrun's role with Sarnia was far different than Juolevi's, Bean's or Sergachev's. Chychrun was the only one of the four who consistently was on the top PP, top PK, and late-game dzone starts in a close game. Sergachev comes close - he carried that 6'7 anchor Logan Stanley with regularity - but the other two had sheltered minutes and deeper defense corps as a whole.

On several occasions, Chychrun would have a lengthy 2-min ES shift, take a 45-60 second break, come back out for a 2-min PK, then go right into a 2-min PP.

The more minutes you play, the more likely you are to make bad decisions. That's why Ray Bourque - as Herculean as he was - has staggering RS to playoff numbers. There were many postseasons when Bourque would be gassed and made mistake he NEVER made in the regular season (the 1985 Habs series and 1993-1996 postseasons cases in point)

Personally, I didn't see Chychrun consistently make mistakes as egregious as McAvoy and Bean - both struggled with decision making for months in terms or coverage and positioning. There was a weekend series with UConn when McAvoy looked lost, indecisive and was holding on to the puck way too long. And Bean...you need a 2 TB hard drive to store all his gaffes, errors and poor decisions.

Juolevi has the edge over Chychrun in terms of puck management and reads - I won't debate that. My point the whole time, however, is that Juolevi played less, played with comfortable leads, and was afforded the time and space to work his magic. You can argue that Juolevi was a big reason why London had big leads and controlled the game, but more likely than not, he benefited from the system more than the system benefited from him.

Basically, Chychrun had the rawer deal and dealt with it at a high level, especially considering he had shoulder surgery and took a while to get going.

You really can't go wrong with either three. in my opinion the garbage teams with the high picks could use a solid top-3 defender just as much as they need a franchise type. And if drafting those types in later rounds or via UFA is so easy, they why do they still suck at drafting and in the standings?

 

[Samsonite23]

If you go back and watch all the film (and I mean all of it), you'll find that Chychrun's role with Sarnia was far different than Juolevi's, Bean's or Sergachev's. Chychrun was the only one of the four who consistently was on the top PP, top PK, and late-game dzone starts in a close game. Sergachev comes close - he carried that 6'7 anchor Logan Stanley with regularity - but the other two had sheltered minutes and deeper defense corps as a whole.

On several occasions, Chychrun would have a lengthy 2-min ES shift, take a 45-60 second break, come back out for a 2-min PK, then go right into a 2-min PP.

The more minutes you play, the more likely you are to make bad decisions. That's why Ray Bourque - as Herculean as he was - has staggering RS to playoff numbers. There were many postseasons when Bourque would be gassed and made mistake he NEVER made in the regular season (the 1985 Habs series and 1993-1996 postseasons cases in point)

Personally, I didn't see Chychrun consistently make mistakes as egregious as McAvoy and Bean - both struggled with decision making for months in terms or coverage and positioning. There was a weekend series with UConn when McAvoy looked lost, indecisive and was holding on to the puck way too long. And Bean...you need a 2 TB hard drive to store all his gaffes, errors and poor decisions.

Juolevi has the edge over Chychrun in terms of puck management and reads - I won't debate that. My point the whole time, however, is that Juolevi played less, played with comfortable leads, and was afforded the time and space to work his magic. You can argue that Juolevi was a big reason why London had big leads and controlled the game, but more likely than not, he benefited from the system more than the system benefited from him.

Basically, Chychrun had the rawer deal and dealt with it at a high level, especially considering he had shoulder surgery and took a while to get going.

You really can't go wrong with either three. in my opinion the garbage teams with the high picks could use a solid top-3 defender just as much as they need a franchise type. And if drafting those types in later rounds or via UFA is so easy, they why do they still suck at drafting and in the standings?

Good post. This has been my opinion on the situation (almost to a T) for a while now. People that have been paying attention notice these types of things. Unfortunately, not a lot of people look at the big picture.

 

[Jerrico]

So if you guys had to guess...do you think he gets taken in the top 10 on Friday or not?

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Good post. This has been my opinion on the situation (almost to a T) for a while now. People that have been paying attention notice these types of things. Unfortunately, not a lot of people look at the big picture.

Chychrun is far from perfect. But I'm surprised how there's no in-between with the way he's assessed. People either love him or hate him.

To be honest, I hope he goes to Buffalo. No pressure, great fans, solid coach who likes to attack.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

I am no insider, I have no sources, but here's my reasoning for why I think he goes to Calgary 6th as the first D off the board after Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi/Dubois/Tkachuk:

-The Flames are most in need of a power right wing. They have otherwise drafted and developed as many LWs (Gaudreau, Ferland, Poirier, Klimchuk, Carroll, Karnaukhov, Mangiapane) and Cs (Monahan, Bennett, Backlund, Jankowski, Arnold) as a team can realistically use within the same age range.

-However, with no premier RW on the board after Puljujarvi, they will likely need to fill that hole in FA and choose between more of what they already have (Keller, Nylander, Jost, Kunin) or make a reach for a Gauthier/Jones/Bellows type. The other option is a D.

-While RHD is set with Giordano and Hamilton for the near future and they've used many picks on left handed defenders, none in their system have the floor of a Chychrun. There are some risks (Kylington, Ollas-Mattsson, Rafikov) some bottom pair types (Hickey, Kulak, Roy) and a whole bunch in between. However, there are no sure things.

-Further, if the Flames are going to be a contender long-term, they need to survive their own division first. The Pacific is shaping up to be a gauntlet with Edmonton, Winnipeg, Anaheim, San Jose, LA and Vancouver boasting either the best talent tomorrow or Finals-worthy rosters today.

-This is why, if I am Calgary, I have to seriously consider moving away from all of the offensive-minded left handed D on the board and going for a more traditional blueliner who can take care of business in his end. To counter all that speed, size and skill in the Pacific, that player must also be big(ger) and an elite skater. Bonus if they have a bit of sandpaper to their game.

Looking at all those qualities, there is only player who really fits. Bean, Sergachev and Cholowski are too offensive-minded to play the kind of game you'd want from a top-four lockdown defender. Juolevi is a close second, but Chychrun is a better skater while being meaner and more physically developed. He'd be the perfect partner for Hamilton, allowing his partner to move the puck while being a dangerous player in transition himself. Chychrun is also not a finished product; he's got every bit a chance to develop a premier offensive game as Juolevi does while having some elite tools to work with.

I don't know, I'm just spitballing. More than likely Calgary stays the course and chooses a Nylander-type. If they're that hot on Chychrun I imagine they'd try and drop down first. But if they can't? If they get word that someone just below them is as interested in him as they are? I can see the foundation for a draft-day shocker.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I like your take, and it's not really unrealistic. I'm confident Nylander is a Flame this time tomorrow, with Chychrun probably being my 2nd choice. The fan in me really likes Keller a lot as well, but for the reasons you mentioned I could see us going with Chychrun. It's gonna come down to who they have as BPA, but I know they feel strongly about it and it's already been decided internally.

 

[BigRangy]

it's speculated, based on analysis of pre-draft statements, that at least 1 defenseman is in the Flames' top 6. also, management has stated that they believe Chyrchrun is one of the highest character guys in the draft.

i will not be shocked to see Chychrun in a red sweater by tomorrow evening.

I would prefer Nylander or Keller, and Sergachev will probably be more dynamic at the NHL, but I can live with Chychrun.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I do think Chychrun has the abilities to become a #1. Ekblad was said by many to not be a franchise dman and that was false. Chychrun has all the abilities, it's a matter of reaching them. I think he's a stud.

 

[93LEAFS]

I do think Chychrun has the abilities to become a #1. Ekblad was said by many to not be a franchise dman and that was false. Chychrun has all the abilities, it's a matter of reaching them. I think he's a stud.

I never got some of those knocks on Ekblad which were basically, he plays too simplistic, man against boys, and not a risk taker. I get the knocks on Chychrun, but I do think he can overcome it.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I never got some of those knocks on Ekblad which were basically, he plays too simplistic, man against boys, and not a risk taker. I get the knocks on Chychrun, but I do think he can overcome it.

Yeah he's definitely not Ekblad, but I think he's a top pairing dman. In this draft, he's my favourite D prospect.

 

[Captain Timo]

Yeah he's definitely not Ekblad, but I think he's a top pairing dman. In this draft, he's my favourite D prospect.

I'm with you on that, he's still my favourite dman of the draft, though I haven't watched alot of Fabbro. For a kid who missed his entire summer rehabbing an injury, he had a great year. The hype created pressure on people and scouts to overanalyze and search for any sort of knock on him, which has reflected in his ranking. Regardless, I feel like he'll come out of this draft like Fowler, who was a steal at his draft position after sliding.

 

[Captain Timo]

Not amongst the scouts I speak to. He failed to impress them right from his rookie season. I've heard nothing but negatives about Day from NHL scouts since day 1 in the league. He certainly didn't impress me or our other scouts. Poor hockey IQ and lazy way too often. Losing 1 on 1 battles to 5'9" ish guys on a consistent basis tends to hurt your draft stock as well.

We got some nasty comments sent our way after not ranking him in our 2015 Black Book early 2016 top 30 last June. He wasn't really close to making our list. Funny that some of the people spewing the venom at us had him out of their first rounds pretty quickly after the season started.

If we're being honest, the downfall of Sean Day began far earlier than after his rookie season. There's a reason he was only drafted 4th overall to the OHL despite getting exceptional status. Prior to Day, that was unheard of, cause these kids granted ES were so good.

 

[BondraTime]

I'm with you on that, he's still my favourite dman of the draft, though I haven't watched alot of Fabbro. For a kid who missed his entire summer rehabbing an injury, he had a great year. The hype created pressure on people and scouts to overanalyze and search for any sort of knock on him, which has reflected in his ranking. Regardless, I feel like he'll come out of this draft like Fowler, who was a steal at his draft position after sliding.

Fowler fell on draft day, Chychrun has fallen all season. Big difference.

Chuchrun would have to be picked past 15 in order to call it a fall. Being picked ~12 is where he is ranked to be taken. Fowler was ranked ~5 and fell to the Ducks.

 

[Captain Timo]

Fowler fell on draft day, Chychrun has fallen all season. Big difference.

Chuchrun would have to be picked past 15 in order to call it a fall. Being picked ~12 is where he is ranked to be taken. Fowler was ranked ~5 and fell to the Ducks.

I disagree. Obviously the scouts were seeing something they didn't like with Fowler, but they seemed to have kept their mouth shut. Could've just been a weak draft at the top though, who knows. My point is that both were really hyped and expected to go high before the season had started, and both are looking like fallers. And I disagree, if Chychrun goes anywhere but top 10 it'd be a slid given what he was once ranked.

 

[BondraTime]

I disagree. Obviously the scouts were seeing something they didn't like with Fowler, but they seemed to have kept their mouth shut. Could've just been a weak draft at the top though, who knows. My point is that both were really hyped and expected to go high before the season had started, and both are looking like fallers. And I disagree, if Chychrun goes anywhere but top 10 it'd be a slid given what he was once ranked.

Well, no. There is a reason that he was rated to go around 5, he fell on draft day.

Chychrun is rated to go around 12. If he is picked at 11, he didn't fall.

http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=39853

Fowler was projected as the 5th pick, from a panel of scouts. He fell to 12th.

http://www.tsn.ca/matthews-goes-wire-to-wire-as-tsn-s-top-prospect-1.511597

Chychrun is projected as the 13th pick, from a panel of scouts. For him to fall, he would have to be picked past 15.

Why would where he was once ranked matter? Did Kabanov slide when he was picked at 65th because he was ranked as a top 5 guy at the start of the season?

 

[Captain Timo]

Well, no. There is a reason that he was rated to go around 5, he fell on draft day.

Chychrun is rated to go around 12. If he is picked at 11, he didn't fall.

http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=39853

Fowler was projected as the 5th pick, from a panel of scouts. He fell to 12th.

http://www.tsn.ca/matthews-goes-wire-to-wire-as-tsn-s-top-prospect-1.511597

Chychrun is projected as the 13th pick, from a panel of scouts. For him to fall, he would have to be picked past 15.

Why would where he was once ranked matter? Did Kabanov slide when he was picked at 65th because he was ranked as a top 5 guy at the start of the season?

Yeah, I'd say he did lol. Like I said, obviously there was something scouts didn't like with Fowler, and he quite clearly shouldn't have been ranked 5th. Eleven teams passed on him, so there was clearly a disconnect between NHL scouts and team scouts

 

[BondraTime]

Yeah, I'd say he did lol. Like I said, obviously there was something scouts didn't like with Fowler, and he quite clearly shouldn't have been ranked 5th. Eleven teams passed on him, so there was clearly a disconnect between NHL scouts and team scouts

You realize these are the same people right?