OT: LA Angels of Anaheim Baseball Discussion (continued again)

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AngelDuck

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I would say DiPoto is the one on a power trip. I get he's trying to help, but let Sosh manage and worry about making the team better.

Well when the manager is a dinosaur that doesn't believe in data and relaying mproper scouting information, it must make it harder to do your job. He probably shouldn't have done what he did but Scioscia for some reason seems to be more powerful than anyone else in the organization
 

Getzholm

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Well when the manager is a dinosaur that doesn't believe in data and relaying mproper scouting information, it must make it harder to do your job. He probably shouldn't have done what he did but Scioscia for some reason seems to be more powerful than anyone else in the organization

Yep. I blame Scioscia... Ugh. Too bad. I liked him as a GM. Other than the huge signings, which probably weren't his idea in the first place.
 
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Well when the manager is a dinosaur that doesn't believe in data and relaying mproper scouting information, it must make it harder to do your job. He probably shouldn't have done what he did but Scioscia for some reason seems to be more powerful than anyone else in the organization

His job's to assemble the team, not manage them in-game. Completely out of line to throw a tantrum in the clubhouse, and even Pujols called him out for it.

I'm not upset. DiPoto wasn't awful, but he wasn't very good, either. I'd rather have Sosh.
 

Hockey Duckie

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I would say DiPoto is the one on a power trip. I get he's trying to help, but let Sosh manage and worry about making the team better.

You realize that DiPoto was trying to give scouting data reports to Sosh to give to the players for each and every game. And Sosh doesn't care about the reports.

Arte wanted Pujols and Hamilton. I'm okay with Pujols as it helped land a tv deal. But Arte chose Hamilton (a bat) over keeping Greinke (a pitcher). The team traded good assets for Greinke at the trade deadline. It would be prudent to keep Greinke. Instead, we go out and get Hamilton. In getting Hamilton, we wasted those assets for Greinke AND LOST A FIRST ROUND PICK in the process.

Our previous GM has done nothing to replenish our farm system. With the signing of Pujols, the team lost a first round pick that year. The following year, it signed Hamilton and lost another first round pick. When Arte Moreno imposed a budget to himself, that's when he let Dipoto go to work.

P Chatwood traded for C Iannetta

Trumbo for LHP Skaggs and LHP Santiago. (Both are starters - Skaggs is recovering from Tommy John Surgery)
Borjous and Grchk for 3B Freese and middle relief P Salas.
Signed relief P Joe Smith. (Our 8th inning pitcher.)
Romine for relief LHP Jose Alvarez

2B Lindsey, Closer RJ Alvarez, SS Rondon, and P Morris for Closer Street and relief P Gott. (Street is our closer, 9th inning guy, and Gott has seen relief time this year at the MLB level)
P Clevinger for relief P Pestano
C Conger traded for P Tropeano and C Perez
2B Kendrick traded for P Heaney (Has started 2 games this year)

So, let's recap...

Possible staring pitchers under DiPoto: Santiago, Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano. That's six innings plus right there available right now (Except for Skaggs). We also have two pitchers in the recent drafts that look promising in Newcomb and Green for the far future. This is great for the future of the organization! Imagine if we would have had Greinke and a first round pick instead of Hamilton?!!!

Middle relief pitchers under DiPoto (there could be more, but this is what I can recall): Salas, Gott, and Alvarez

8th: Smith (signed as a FA)

9th: Street (traded for)

We're going to be very good on the mound. But our offense needs help. So we need all the help we can get if we're going to be in a lot of close games because of good pitching. What else can we do? Use scouting statistics to help make better decisions.

Sosh is still living off his single world series win back in 2002. Has Sosh's mastermind guided this org to another World Series win or to the World Series? Nope. With the roster Sosh had last year, the team had the best record in baseball. And yet ousted in the first round of the playoffs. We're already into 2015. The team is geared toward a low scoring game affair. Maybe using stats to improve your winning percentage might be that much more advantageous.

Sosh goes off of feel. You know... like the feeling of the need to put Hamilton on the roster for the playoffs. That feeling netted a ZERO stat line across the board.

In the last three games, the average Runners Left In Scoring Position for the team is 4.67 runs per game. The past three games the team has won 3-2, 4-1, 2-1. The last game vs the Yanks, the Angels were 0 - 11 with RISP. It left 9 men on base. Yankees had 0 RISP.

As of today, we have the fewest AB's as a team in the league. We have played 78 games. There nine teams that have played 76 games or less that have more hits than the Angels! (I used ESPN.com stats.)

Rank... Team... Games... AB's
28.........LAD........78...... 565
29.........Mil.........78...... 554
30.........LAA........78...... 528

That gap is 26 batters faced. The least batters faced in one game is 27 batters. That's almost one game's worth of batters difference!!! Not only that, but the Angels are in the AL, which means we have a DH, not a pitcher batting. Wow!!! That's very bad.

And Sosh still thinks "feeling" is better than scouting stat info to help the team hit better? I knew our offense was bad, but I didn't realize it was THIS BAD. cray, cray.

Almost half the season is over. 78 games is a large sample. And the lingering thought is to continue doing the same thing.

Anyhow, it sucks that Dipoto put down an ultimatum. At least he's passionate about his job and wants the best for the organization. He isn't a Yes Man like the previous GM Tony Reagins. But Moreno makes a lot of his basis on feeling as well. Here's a link about Moreno and his mistakes: The Three Sins of Arturo Moreno. And a quote from that article:

Moreno admitted that Hamilton is a risk. He also admitted that, as an owner who thinks like a fan, he felt he had no choice.

"We have every statistical analysis but the reality is, at the end of the day, people want hope," Moreno said. "I look at this positively and I said, 'I hope.' "

So... Moreno makes decisions based on feel (hope is not a strategy). Sosh makes decisions based on feel. Dipoto uses stats to make a strategy. Dipoto is the odd man out in this picture. He's trying to play chess while Moreno and Sosh are still stuck on checkers.
 
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You realize that DiPoto was trying to give scouting data reports to Sosh to give to the players for each and every game. And Sosh doesn't care about the reports.

Arte wanted Pujols and Hamilton. I'm okay with Pujols as it helped land a tv deal. But Arte chose Hamilton (a bat) over keeping Greinke (a pitcher). The team traded good assets for Greinke at the trade deadline. It would be prudent to keep Greinke. Instead, we go out and get Hamilton. In getting Hamilton, we wasted those assets for Greinke AND LOST A FIRST ROUND PICK in the process.

Our previous GM has done nothing to replenish our farm system. With the signing of Pujols, the team lost a first round pick that year. The following year, it signed Hamilton and lost another first round pick. When Arte Moreno imposed a budget to himself, that's when he let Dipoto go to work.

P Chatwood traded for C Iannetta

Trumbo for LHP Skaggs and LHP Santiago. (Both are starters - Skaggs is recovering from Tommy John Surgery)
Borjous and Grchk for 3B Freese and middle relief P Salas.
Signed relief P Joe Smith. (Our 8th inning pitcher.)
Romine for relief LHP Jose Alvarez

2B Lindsey, Closer RJ Alvarez, SS Rondon, and P Morris for Closer Street and relief P Gott. (Street is our closer, 9th inning guy, and Gott has seen relief time this year at the MLB level)
P Clevinger for relief P Pestano
C Conger traded for P Tropeano and C Perez
2B Kendrick traded for P Heaney (Has started 2 games this year)

So, let's recap...

Possible staring pitchers under DiPoto: Santiago, Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano. That's six innings plus right there available right now (Except for Skaggs). We also have two pitchers in the recent drafts that look promising in Newcomb and Green for the far future. This is great for the future of the organization! Imagine if we would have had Greinke and a first round pick instead of Hamilton?!!!

Middle relief pitchers under DiPoto (there could be more, but this is what I can recall): Salas, Gott, and Alvarez

8th: Smith (signed as a FA)

9th: Street (traded for)

We're going to be very good on the mound. But our offense needs help. So we need all the help we can get if we're going to be in a lot of close games because of good pitching. What else can we do? Use scouting statistics to help make better decisions.

Sosh is still living off his single world series win back in 2002. Has Sosh's mastermind guided this org to another World Series win or to the World Series? Nope. With the roster Sosh had last year, the team had the best record in baseball. And yet ousted in the first round of the playoffs. We're already into 2015. The team is geared toward a low scoring game affair. Maybe using stats to improve your winning percentage might be that much more advantageous.

Sosh goes off of feel. You know... like the feeling of the need to put Hamilton on the roster for the playoffs. That feeling netted a ZERO stat line across the board.

In the last three games, the average Runners Left In Scoring Position for the team is 4.67 runs per game. The past three games the team has won 3-2, 4-1, 2-1. The last game vs the Yanks, the Angels were 0 - 11 with RISP. It left 9 men on base. Yankees had 0 RISP.

As of today, we have the fewest AB's as a team in the league. We have played 78 games. There nine teams that have played 76 games or less that have more hits than the Angels! (I used ESPN.com stats.)

Rank... Team... Games... AB's
28.........LAD........78...... 565
29.........Mil.........78...... 554
30.........LAA........78...... 528

That gap is 26 batters faced. The least batters faced in one game is 27 batters. That's almost one game's worth of batters difference!!! Not only that, but the Angels are in the AL, which means we have a DH, not a pitcher batting. Wow!!! That's very bad.

And Sosh still thinks "feeling" is better than scouting stat info to help the team hit better? I knew our offense was bad, but I didn't realize it was THIS BAD. cray, cray.

Almost half the season is over. 78 games is a large sample. And the lingering thought is to continue doing the same thing.

Anyhow, it sucks that Dipoto put down an ultimatum. At least he's passionate about his job and wants the best for the organization. He isn't a Yes Man like the previous GM Tony Reagins. But Moreno makes a lot of his basis on feeling as well. Here's a link about Moreno and his mistakes: The Three Sins of Arturo Moreno. And a quote from that article:



So... Moreno makes decisions based on feel (hope is not a strategy). Sosh makes decisions based on feel. Dipoto uses stats to make a strategy. Dipoto is the odd man out in this picture. He's trying to play chess while Moreno and Sosh are still stuck on checkers.

It's still not his place to make in-game decisions. Doesn't matter if he's right, it's not his place.

DiPoto also gets off the hook way too much regarding the big signings. If he wanted Greinke over Hamilton so badly, he could have convinced Moreno. Wouldn't be surprised if he told Moreno that the money would best be spent on an every day player as opposed to a pitcher. I mean, if you can speculate, so can I.

Like I said, he wasn't awful, but hardly great, either. I'll still take Sosh.
 

Sacha Baron Corbin

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Even if Dipoto tried to convince Moreno, Arte seems to live in his own world running the team. Even Sosh does too, to an extent.
 

Hockey Duckie

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It's still not his place to make in-game decisions. Doesn't matter if he's right, it's not his place.

DiPoto also gets off the hook way too much regarding the big signings. If he wanted Greinke over Hamilton so badly, he could have convinced Moreno. Wouldn't be surprised if he told Moreno that the money would best be spent on an every day player as opposed to a pitcher. I mean, if you can speculate, so can I.

Like I said, he wasn't awful, but hardly great, either. I'll still take Sosh.

I'm not speculating. It's there. I just quoted Moreno himself.

Moreno admitted that Hamilton is a risk. He also admitted that, as an owner who thinks like a fan, he felt he had no choice.

"We have every statistical analysis but the reality is, at the end of the day, people want hope," Moreno said. "I look at this positively and I said, 'I hope.' "

The word "but" means contrary or "except that". This is Moreno admitting he's going AGAINST statistical analysis. So essentially he's saying, "We have all the stats, except that people want hope." DiPoto is a stat guy. I can't make that any more poignant.

Here's one from MLBtraderumors.com:
Dipoto took the GM seat for Los Angeles in the fall of 2011 after the firing of predecessor Tony Reagins. He oversaw major free agent acquisitions, including Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson, although those major outlays have often been connected to Moreno’s involvement.

And here's a quote from the NYPost:
In addition, Moreno is seen as the driving force — without his GM’s blessing — in signing Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract and Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million deal.

As for in-game decisions, did you see the stat of AB's? Those are opportunities. The more you have, the better chances of production. The shift... many teams do this to us, especially with Pujols.

It's been over a decade since we've seen the World Series. We've been doing it Sosh's way for over a decade since the WS win and not much of a return to the WS. But with Sosh it's the idea of WS win. That represents "hope" as a baseball fan like Moreno alluded with. But hope isn't a strategy. We all saw how the hope in Hamilton turned out.

Using our Ducks as a parallel, Carlyle won the Cup in 2007. It took the same pattern a few years of starting slow and the Ducks parted ways with RC - finally. At that time, I commented how the Ducks and Angels were similar in that fashion and I wanted Sosh out.

With you wanting Sosh, then it's safe to assume you'd be okay with RC being the coach for 12 years plus? Where is RC again right now?

BTW, so am I speculating or did I provide enough links for you?
 
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I'm not speculating. It's there. I just quoted Moreno himself.



The word "but" means contrary or "except that". This is Moreno admitting he's going AGAINST statistical analysis. So essentially he's saying, "We have all the stats, except that people want hope." DiPoto is a stat guy. I can't make that any more poignant.

Here's one from MLBtraderumors.com:


And here's a quote from the NYPost:


As for in-game decisions, did you see the stat of AB's? Those are opportunities. The more you have, the better chances of production. The shift... many teams do this to us, especially with Pujols.

It's been over a decade since we've seen the World Series. We've been doing it Sosh's way for over a decade since the WS win and not much of a return to the WS. But with Sosh it's the idea of WS win. That represents "hope" as a baseball fan like Moreno alluded with. But hope isn't a strategy. We all saw how the hope in Hamilton turned out.

Using our Ducks as a parallel, Carlyle won the Cup in 2007. It took the same pattern a few years of starting slow and the Ducks parted ways with RC - finally. At that time, I commented how the Ducks and Angels were similar in that fashion and I wanted Sosh out.

With you wanting Sosh, then it's safe to assume you'd be okay with RC being the coach for 12 years plus? Where is RC again right now?

BTW, so am I speculating or did I provide enough links for you?

The only one that suggests he was against it was from the NY Post, so forgive me for taking that with a grain of salt. I have no doubts Moreno pushed for such moves, but I also have no doubts DiPoto was on board.

As for the Ducks comparison, it's not much of one. Carlyle completely lost the room, that's why he had to go. That certainly hasn't happened with Sosh.

Sosh's reams routinely outperform the expected records, that really says quite a bit. There have been a lot of ups and downs the last decade or so, but I definitely don't think he's to blame. I don't really blame Dipoto, either, but if one has to go, I'd rather it be him.
 

Hockey Duckie

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The only one that suggests he was against it was from the NY Post, so forgive me for taking that with a grain of salt. I have no doubts Moreno pushed for such moves, but I also have no doubts DiPoto was on board.

Seriously, you think the GM would negate the owner? Usually the owner wins out. It doesn't matter what sport, but if an owner is meddlesome, then they usually get their way.

As for the Ducks comparison, it's not much of one. Carlyle completely lost the room, that's why he had to go. That certainly hasn't happened with Sosh.
What? Lost the room? Carlyle has the same pattern happening again. cray, cray


Sosh's reams routinely outperform the expected records, that really says quite a bit. There have been a lot of ups and downs the last decade or so, but I definitely don't think he's to blame. I don't really blame Dipoto, either, but if one has to go, I'd rather it be him.

Wait... outperform the expected records? WTF is that logic? I'm sorry, but the point is to win the whole thing and this "outperform expected records" thing is an asinine thing. I just read your argument vs Joe about "expected goals scored and how off it can be"; how can you write what you wrote after that argument? That's not consistent.

But let's continue in your logic. Last year the Angels had the best record in all of baseball. Outperforming expected records would also mean winning the whole things, right? The year before they weren't in the playoffs. And they year before that as well. And then the year before that as well.

Year..... Playoffs?
2014.... Yes (out in the first round)
2013.... no
2012.... no (Jerry Dipoto hired... 2011, after season ended)
2011.... no
2010.... no
2009.... Yes (2nd best record in baseball... out in Pennant series, 2nd round)
2008.... Yes (Best record overall... out first round)
2007.... Yes (out first round)
2006.... No

If Sosh was all that, then wouldn't the team be in the playoffs all the time? What happened after being awesome three years in a row in the regular season? Nothing. If it weren't for Trout, the team wouldn't worth talking about. But that's four consecutive years of not being in the playoffs. And the years the team was in the playoffs, they were were cannon fodder.

As for Dipoto... Here's a snippet from an ESPN article when he was hired:
Angels owner Arte Moreno, who sat in the front row during the press conference, said Dipoto has complete power.

"Either way, if it works then I made the decision, if it didn't work then I didn't make the decision," Moreno joked. "Where people started thinking that this turned into a one-headed monster or a two-headed monster I don't know. Just from day one we've always had good communication and we were focused, we wanted to stay focused on building from within and I think we got a little bit away from that and we really wanted to find someone that would stay very focused on building from within."

If Dipoto has complete power, then why did he quit? Moreno denoted on building within. Losing first round picks isn't building within. We lost first round picks when we signed Pujols and Hamilton in back to back years. But now, we have loads of young, cost controlled pitchers in our system with a few more developing.

So what could have made a difference between 2012, 2013, and 2014? Save percentages.

Year... SO.... Eff% (SO= save opp; Eff% = save opp efficiency percentage)
2011... 60.9%
2012... 63.3%
2013... 70.7%
2014... 74.2%

In 2014, Dipoto signed relief pitcher Joe Smith. Smith had 15 saves until the team traded for Huston Street. Street had 17 saves in 28 games played for the Angels. Frieri had 11 saves and then we traded him for Grili. Grili had 1 save and 11 holds. Salas (who was acquired in the Borjous and Grchuk trade) had 5 wins and 9 holds.

So let's work backwards here for pitching (from players Dipoto acquired) for 2014 alone...
9th: Street
8th: Smith
7th: Grili, Salas
Starters: Santiago and Skaggs

Anyhow, how good is Sosh? In a short series, looking at his playoff record from 2007 to present, he's not that great. Twice with the best record in all of baseball; twice out in the first round. After posting the best record in baseball last season, why is the team middling now?

Granted we traded away one of our better hitters in 2B Kendrick. But with one year left on Kendrick's contract, we traded him for 7 years cost controlled of starting pitcher Heaney. So you mean to say that Sosh requires a star studded line up to mask for his deficiencies?

Anyhow, I'll close with these quotes from the same ESPN article covering when Dipoto got hired by the Angels:
"We just felt it was important to the organization and to the fans to just turn over every stone and educate ourselves," team president John Carpino said. "We wanted to be sure and today we are sure."

Scioscia, meanwhile, took the opportunity to dismiss speculation that he is the team's de facto GM.

"I'm the manager of the club," Scioscia said. "That's where all my effort and focus is and that's where all my effort and focus will continue to be. Jerry is going to get opinions from myself, sometimes strong opinions. Sometimes he'll act on them and sometimes he's not going to act on them. Our staff is going to give opinions. That's the way we've worked for 12 years and that's the way we'll continue to work. I'm sure Jerry is well aware of that."

Pretty chilling statement from a manager trying to dismiss he's the de facto GM while Moreno stated Dipoto would have complete power. From team president Carpino stating "educate ourselves" may have been more rhetoric than implementation because Dipoto's about stats.
 
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What in the world are you talking about?

And yes, Carlyle lost the room.

He tried to make a bad comparison and it failed.

To further explain, an expected record is when they use that team's runs scored and runs in an algorithm to see what their record should have been. Obviously very different from predicting goal totals. Anyway, while not completely reliable, these records can tell you of a team was perhaps a bit lucky or unlucky. The Angels, on the other hand, consistently did better than their expected record that a lot of people think it can't be luck, and that perhaps Sosh is simply a very good manager. I would agree.

As for their records the past decade, rarely IMO have the Angels underperformed. Sure, they've had some big names, but they've also had some bad teams. And no, they haven't made it back to the WS, but I'm definitely not going to hang that on Sosh. Again, these teams haven't been very talented. Even last year's team seriously lacked in a lot of ways, and it turns out you're in a bad spot in the DS if your starting pitching isn't very good. Who knew?
 

ADifferentTim

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Hey, Angels fans, I talked to an Angels employee earlier today and told me the three most obnoxious visiting fanbases he encountered were:

--Yankee fans
--Red Sox fans
--Dodgers fans

Accurate or exaggerated?
 

Sacha Baron Corbin

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Nice win to head into the All Star break. Heaney has been lights out since his call up.

Hopefully Albert doesn't wreck himself in the Derby
 

mightyquack

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Trout is a freak. Just finished watching this mornings (for me) game, just awesome.
 
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