Kuznetsov, Kucherov, Buchnevich- The Russian Factor

[SnowblindNYR]

Kuznetsov went late first round, 26th overall. Kucherov went late second round, 58th overall, Buchnevich went mid-3rd round 75th overall.

My question is DISREGARDING their play in the NHL where do you guys think these guys would have been drafted if not for the Russian factor? Or did the Russian factor not play a role in them getting drafted where they did?

Click to read more...

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Top 10 for all of them, add Kaprizov to that, as well. You don't magically become that good in two months.

 

[Fantomas]

Everyone sort of slept on Kaprizov. Including Russian fans, myself included.

There are some reasons for this: he barely played in the MHL in his draft year, so we never saw him dominate. And he never got going in tournaments for some reason.

The eye test on him was misleading as well. He didn't look incredibly fast or powerful and he's not a big man. What became apparent eventually was his hockey sense, his sixth sense on the ice, knowing where to go to get the puck. It's hard to see stuff like this sometimes.

 

[Ainec]

Tarasenko would've went 3rd overall and Kuznetsov would've went 4th overall if they were Canadian with names like

Derek Connolly and Brandon Gudbranson

both players were stand outs against Canadian teams



Kuch and Buch didn't get the same recognition and just developed extremely well. We've seen Canadians like Point drop in the draft

 

[Atas2000]

Tarasenko would've went 3rd overall and Kuznetsov would've went 4th overall if they were Canadian with names like

Derek Connolly and Brandon Gudbranson

both players were stand outs against Canadian teams



Kuch and Buch didn't get the same recognition and just developed extremely well. We've seen Canadians like Point drop in the draft

The part about Kucherov is silly. He developed well? Guy was head and shoulders above everybody in the world at age 17-18, breaking records and all. NHL scouts and GMs just effed up 57 times.

 

[Atas2000]

Kuznetsov went late first round, 26th overall. Kucherov went late second round, 58th overall, Buchnevich went mid-3rd round 75th overall.

My question is DISREGARDING their play in the NHL where do you guys think these guys would have been drafted if not for the Russian factor? Or did the Russian factor not play a role in them getting drafted where they did?

Both Kuznetsov and Tarasenko should have been very early 1st rounders. The strange case of Kucherov is really amazing. It was very obvious there is a future star there. NHL scouts just aren't good with Russians to say the least.

Buchnevich wasn't that much of a standout at draft day. He really developed well(yes, in Russia). Was probably worth a 2nd round pick still.

Kaprizov took off really fast late. Again still a way better prospect than the 5th rounder he became.

 

[Ainec]

The part about Kucherov is silly. He developed well? Guy was head and shoulders above everybody in the world at age 17-18, breaking records and all. NHL scouts and GMs just effed up 57 times.

wtf are you talking about? MHL and WJC-18 while the other 2 were on bigger stages ? it's not even comparable

 

[Maple Leaf]

The Russian factor is real
They see the talent
They don't want the risk

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Both Kuznetsov and Tarasenko should have been very early 1st rounders. The strange case of Kucherov is really amazing. It was very obvious there is a future star there. NHL scouts just aren't good with Russians to say the least.

Buchnevich wasn't that much of a standout at draft day. He really developed well(yes, in Russia). Was probably worth a 2nd round pick still.

Kaprizov took off really fast late. Again still a way better prospect than the 5th rounder he became.

Kucherov was promising but you couldn't tell he would become one of the most dominant goalscorers in the NHL. He had talent but it was only recently that he put it all together. What was missing from his game before entering the NHL is the power. He had great hands and an accurate shot, but he wasn't as powerful as he is today.

 

[Atas2000]

Kucherov was promising but you couldn't tell he would become one of the most dominant goalscorers in the NHL. He had talent but it was only recently that he put it all together. What was missing from his game before entering the NHL is the power. He had great hands and an accurate shot, but he wasn't as powerful as he is today.

Have you actually followed him in juniors?

Again, just silly. He was lacking nothing. He was absolutely dominant. If you couldn't tell what he will become you are just not good at scouting. And the powerfull thing is just funny. Probably that stupid obsession with towering monsters was a part the GMs and scouts failure. You can't teach talent. There are tons of guys who don't look like Hulk at draft age though. Scouts should be able to evaluate players better.

 

[Atas2000]

wtf are you talking about? MHL and WJC-18 while the other 2 were on bigger stages ? it's not even comparable

North Americans obviously don't think MHL is a stage at all, right? That's why you fail at drafting Russians. Juniors are never on bigger or smaller stages. They are juniors. You have to put some effort into following and evaluating them. If you only come to a WJC to make your decisions you are just bad at what you do.

You know what's not comparable? NHL scouting Russians and proper scouting.

That's a good thing though. I wouldn't mind if Gary's league would stay away from our players entirely.

 

[Ainec]

North Americans obviously don't think MHL is a stage at all, right? That's why you fail at drafting Russians. Juniors are never on bigger or smaller stages. They are juniors. You have to put some effort into following and evaluating them. If you only come to a WJC to make your decisions you are just bad at what you do.

You know what's not comparable? NHL scouting Russians and proper scouting.

That's a good thing though. I wouldn't mind if Gary's league would stay away from our players entirely.

Apparently the KHL is bad at scouting considering Tarasenko and Kuznetsov were brought up to the big leagues at an earlier age while Kucherov was stuck in the MHL

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Buchnevich wasn't that much of a standout at draft day. He really developed well(yes, in Russia). Was probably worth a 2nd round pick still.

Gotta disagree with this. He was second at the 2013 WJC18 in points after McDavid, he was playing with the Russian U20 team his draft year, something very few do, as I'm sure you know. He was playing really well for that team, he won forward of the tournament at one of the warm up tournaments, but then Bragin got a KHL job, and a new coach came in who didn't want him on the team. Bragin compared him to Malkin even prior to his draft.

One of only 13 players to play 10 or more KHL games in their pre-draft season, 3 of those players were later birthdays, and he was one of only 4 of those 13 to be a non-later birthday and play in the playoffs, so he was younger in his draft season than a lot of these guys, and was not playing for a bad team that was just throwing kids out there for no reason, he had to earn his ice time. He also had the second highest # of points and PPG average in the MHL in his age 16 season after Kucherov, ahead of numerous players who went in the first round. Also, like with Kaprizov, I don't think these guys improve so much in the span of two months to be able to have such good 18 year old seasons, I think they were just under-scouted and drafted.

Here are some opinions from draft experts.

He had him ranked 17th.

17. Pavel Buchnevich, Left Wing, Severstal (KHL)

Buchnevich had a quality season in Russia and in international play, despite suffering injuries during parts of the year. The obvious aspect of his game is his skill level. He has high-end puck possession skills, with top-of-the-line hands and hockey sense. He shows good offensive instincts, standing out through his reads and creative decisions. He can be a quality passer, although he is prone to the selfish play now and then. An NHL executive told me that he has the offensive ability to dominate, at times. His skating garners a mixed bag of reviews. One scout described it as average, with another saying he is very good, thanks to his impressive acceleration and ability to put defenders on their heels. Buchnevich's area of concern is his physicality. He is roughly average in height, but he needs to add major bulk. His style of play is not one of physical intimidation.

Ranking explanation: Adam Erne is a better skater with more physicality than Buchnevich, but the Severstal forward's puck skills, vision, and offensive instincts won out in the end. Erne has a better statistical record, as he notched 55 points in 64 games as a 16-year-old, with over a point per game this year in the QMJHL. Buchnevich has been a near point-per-game player in the Russian junior league the past two seasons, but there is a competition adjustment to be made. There are reasonable arguments for either player, but Buchnevich's strengths and upside make him the choice. Erne is perhaps more safe, and certainly skilled in his own right, but he does not have the potentially elite puck possession tools of Buchnevich.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1529

Pavel Buchnevich -- New York Rangers -- 75th overall

The Rangers didn't have any picks until the third round, but may have had the good fortune of the Russian Factor causing Pavel Buchnevich to tumble. He has first-round skills and could turn out to be a highly productive goal scorer if he reaches his full potential. Seeing as the Rangers didn't have a chance to select in the first round, Buchnevich affords the team a first-round caliber player at a range far below what his skills suggest. If the Rangers can lure him away from the KHL at some point, he could go down as one of the steals of this draft.

NHL Draft: Biggest steals in 2013

Here are some highlights from his draft year.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Have you actually followed him in juniors?

Again, just silly. He was lacking nothing. He was absolutely dominant. If you couldn't tell what he will become you are just not good at scouting. And the powerfull thing is just funny. Probably that stupid obsession with towering monsters was a part the GMs and scouts failure. You can't teach talent. There are tons of guys who don't look like Hulk at draft age though. Scouts should be able to evaluate players better.

I'm from Quebec and Kucherov played in the Q. I've known about him for a long time. You didn't understand a thing from what I said. Look at the 15-16 year old Kucherov and tell me he's the same guy he is today. He wasn't as fast, as powerful and his shot wasn't as deadly as it is today. He improved a lot since he got into the NHL. He was always a talented guy but he wasn't the monster he is today. It's got nothing to do with his size. You don't have to be ripped to be a monster. Kucherov became super fast, hard to knock off the puck and his shot is one of the best in the game.

A better example of what I just said would be Panarin. No one thought he had NHL potential when he was 17-18. He improved a lot and he became a monster too.

 

[Fantomas]

Kuch was better at 16 than Panarin though. The guy dominated the MHL at 16; unheard of.

 

[Atas2000]

I'm from Quebec and Kucherov played in the Q. I've known about him for a long time. You didn't understand a thing from what I said. Look at the 15-16 year old Kucherov and tell me he's the same guy he is today. He wasn't as fast, as powerful and his shot wasn't as deadly as it is today. He improved a lot since he got into the NHL. He was always a talented guy but he wasn't the monster he is today. It's got nothing to do with his size. You don't have to be ripped to be a monster. Kucherov became super fast, hard to knock off the puck and his shot is one of the best in the game.

A better example of what I just said would be Panarin. No one thought he had NHL potential when he was 17-18. He improved a lot and he became a monster too.

That is my point. North Americans are bad at scouting. They haven't even drafted Panarin while it was obvious to every man woth a brain in Russia that he us going to be at least an average pro.

Kucherov in the Q is not following him. The 37 games were time wasted for the player and useless for evaluation. Maybe he learned the language a bit and got usred to playing overseas. Otherwise he would have learned more in Russia and would be a better player now if he had not wasted time in the CHL and AHL. And no, he always had the tools. I don't expect an average fan to see that, but a pro scout.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

That is my point. North Americans are bad at scouting. They haven't even drafted Panarin while it was obvious to every man woth a brain in Russia that he us going to be at least an average pro.

Kucherov in the Q is not following him. The 37 games were time wasted for the player and useless for evaluation. Maybe he learned the language a bit and got usred to playing overseas. Otherwise he would have learned more in Russia and would be a better player now if he had not wasted time in the CHL and AHL. And no, he always had the tools. I don't expect an average fan to see that, but a pro scout.

That's not true. He became as good as he could possibly be. Could he play any better than he is playing now?
I don't agree with the logic that all Russians can only develop properly by playing in the KHL. Sure it worked that way for some of them, like Panarin or Kuznetsov, but I don't know what extra skill Kucherov could've learned in the KHL. He's killing it right now, playing to his full potential.

As for Kucherov's improvement, I don't recall him ripping wrist shots from anywhere like that before the NHL. He was always more or less a pass first player.

Also, being an average pro isn't the same thing as being an NHL star. Panarin should've been drafted but no man would've predicted that he would become one of the most dangerous players in the NHL. He had to climb the ranks in the KHL, starting with the Vityaz goons.

 

[Atas2000]

Gotta disagree with this. He was second at the 2013 WJC18 in points after McDavid, he was playing with the Russian U20 team his draft year, something very few do, as I'm sure you know. He was playing really well for that team, he won forward of the tournament at one of the warm up tournaments, but then Bragin got a KHL job, and a new coach came in who didn't want him on the team. Bragin compared him to Malkin even prior to his draft.

One of only 13 players to play 10 or more KHL games in their pre-draft season, 3 of those players were later birthdays, and he was one of only 4 of those 13 to be a non-later birthday and play in the playoffs, so he was younger in his draft season than a lot of these guys, and was not playing for a bad team that was just throwing kids out there for no reason, he had to earn his ice time. He also had the second highest # of points and PPG average in the MHL in his age 16 season after Kucherov, ahead of numerous players who went in the first round. Also, like with Kaprizov, I don't think these guys improve so much in the span of two months to be able to have such good 18 year old seasons, I think they were just under-scouted and drafted.

Here are some opinions from draft experts.

He had him ranked 17th.







http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1529

Pavel Buchnevich -- New York Rangers -- 75th overall

The Rangers didn't have any picks until the third round, but may have had the good fortune of the Russian Factor causing Pavel Buchnevich to tumble. He has first-round skills and could turn out to be a highly productive goal scorer if he reaches his full potential. Seeing as the Rangers didn't have a chance to select in the first round, Buchnevich affords the team a first-round caliber player at a range far below what his skills suggest. If the Rangers can lure him away from the KHL at some point, he could go down as one of the steals of this draft.

NHL Draft: Biggest steals in 2013

Here are some highlights from his draft year.

You use all the wrong arguments. Playing on the junior squad as an underager doesn't mean much in itself. After the big Kuznetsov/Tarasenko hype there simply weren't any prospects of that caliber. Everyone thoght at the time Buchnevich is quite a bit behind those two. And there weren't any others. Just because he was among the best forwards on the WJC teams doesn't mean he was the same kind of prospect as the ones before him.

Playing in the KHL doesn't mean much either. He played for his home team, a perennial bottom feeder(especially after selling out their whole young talent to SKA). There is less parity in the KHL. There are plenty of names you will never hear in NA of players playing in the KHL on some teams that simply have no choice but to rely on young talent as they can't afford vets with a name. Severstal is one of those teams.

Buchnevich's KHL career was also full of ups and downs. The most impressive thing about it is how hard he worked on his weaknesses.

Sure, late in the 3rd he could be considered a steal, but he didn't look look like a 1st rounder either.

 

[Fantomas]

As for Kucherov's improvement, I don't recall him ripping wrist shots from anywhere like that before the NHL. He was always more or less a pass first player.

11 goals in 7 games at the 2011 U18s.

 

[Fantomas]

Gotta disagree with this. He was second at the 2013 WJC18 in points after McDavid, he was playing with the Russian U20 team his draft year, something very few do, as I'm sure you know. He was playing really well for that team, he won forward of the tournament at one of the warm up tournaments, but then Bragin got a KHL job, and a new coach came in who didn't want him on the team. Bragin compared him to Malkin even prior to his draft.

I remember this. Not everyone loved Buchnevich, but Bragin really liked him.

 

[Atas2000]

That's not true. He became as good as he could possibly be. Could he play any better than he is playing now?
I don't agree with the logic that all Russians can only develop properly by playing in the KHL. Sure it worked that way for some of them, like Panarin or Kuznetsov, but I don't know what extra skill Kucherov could've learned in the KHL. He's killing it right now, playing to his full potential.

As for Kucherov's improvement, I don't recall him ripping wrist shots from anywhere like that before the NHL. He was always more or less a pass first player.

Also, being an average pro isn't the same thing as being an NHL star. Panarin should've been drafted but no man would've predicted that he would become one of the most dangerous players in the NHL. He had to climb the ranks in the KHL, starting with the Vityaz goons.

Kucherov could play better. Why not? Is there a limitation? You better as the man himself.

He wasn't a pass first player in juniors, so...

Just in juniors he played some really smart hockey with smart players. He had to adjust in NA being put with linemates he got. Linemates unable to think his way. Not because they are bad at hockey, but because they've learned a different type of it.

He is now playing with a Russian and Stamkos who happens to be one of the most talented guys in the world. That obviously helps playing a smarter, more skill oriented game.

North American coaches are mostly way too straight forward. They often try to make a race horse pull a carriage, because that's their modern understanding of the game: everyone pulls a carriage, everyone plays The System. Do you know how that can ruin a race horse? Kucherov was pushed through that too. Nearly cost him too much. I am glad he was just too talented and too stubborn to break.

Being an average pro warrants at least a late round pick, no? How much talk is on the board about how picks beyond the 2nd round are crapshots? Nobody took a crapshot with Panarin. Because they are bad at scouting.

Later on he developed to be an even better asset. Surprise, surprise... in Russia.

 

[Atas2000]

I remember this. Not everyone loved Buchnevich, but Bragin really liked him.

Some north american scout might want to talk to Bragin from time to time. No, they don't obviously.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You use all the wrong arguments. Playing on the junior squad as an underager doesn't mean much in itself. After the big Kuznetsov/Tarasenko hype there simply weren't any prospects of that caliber. Everyone thoght at the time Buchnevich is quite a bit behind those two. And there weren't any others. Just because he was among the best forwards on the WJC teams doesn't mean he was the same kind of prospect as the ones before him.

Playing in the KHL doesn't mean much either. He played for his home team, a perennial bottom feeder(especially after selling out their whole young talent to SKA). There is less parity in the KHL. There are plenty of names you will never hear in NA of players playing in the KHL on some teams that simply have no choice but to rely on young talent as they can't afford vets with a name. Severstal is one of those teams.

Buchnevich's KHL career was also full of ups and downs. The most impressive thing about it is how hard he worked on his weaknesses.

Sure, late in the 3rd he could be considered a steal, but he didn't look look like a 1st rounder either.

But why compare him to Kuznetsov and Tarasenko? That was never the claim. Those guys probably probably would've been among the first few picks without the dumb "Russian factor" and the poor scouting by NHL teams. You said Buchnevich would be a second round pick, I presented the opinions of multiple "experts" who had him ranked as a first rounder, and while his stats might've fallen short of Tarasenko and Kuznetsov, it doesn't mean he wasn't a first round pick who inexplicably fell to the third round. Many thought he outperformed and was a better prospect than Nichushkin who was the 10th pick.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I remember this. Not everyone loved Buchnevich, but Bragin really liked him.

It was cited that he had a poor attitude, needed to add weight, didn't like playing defense, and dealt with some injuries in his draft year. Typical things that a Russian player would have work against them that an American or Canadian wouldn't have work against them, and thats why they get under-drafted so much.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Buchnevich was pretty hyped well before the draft, he got in the KHL at 16, I mean, look at Russian 1st rounders like Rubtsov and Kostin, they couldn't make the KHL at much older age. And I remember, when they called Kaprizov "new Makarov" at age 16. I mean, yeah, nothing especial. When Buch was picked in the 3rd and Kaprizov in the 5th, to me it was like, yeah those NHL scouts are crazy stupid dumbf***s, Rangers and Wild got their steals of the drafts.

Btw as to Kaprizov. Back to then, while Kirill was steadily progressing in the KHL, equally hyped Guryanov struggled on Lada. So Denis blamed Lada's management, that they misused him, and moved to NA... I doubt he'll be a good NHLer, because if you're a hockey player, you gotta play and not cry.

An interesting phenomenon, when Russian prospects whine about the KHL, Canadians/Americans are always on their side, but as soon as they start to whine about the NHL, the situation is immediately reversed.