Kuznetsov, Kucherov, Buchnevich- The Russian Factor

Atas2000

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Jan 18, 2011
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But why compare him to Kuznetsov and Tarasenko? That was never the claim. Those guys probably probably would've been among the first few picks without the dumb "Russian factor" and the poor scouting by NHL teams. You said Buchnevich would be a second round pick, I presented the opinions of multiple "experts" who had him ranked as a first rounder, and while his stats might've fallen short of Tarasenko and Kuznetsov, it doesn't mean he wasn't a first round pick who inexplicably fell to the third round. Many thought he outperformed and was a better prospect than Nichushkin who was the 10th pick.
Well, he was rated approx. just around Nichushkin level. But that's how drafting goes. Nichushkin picked too high, Buchnevich too low. Both would have been legit 2nd rounders.
 

Frk It

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IIRC it was never a question of talent with Kuznetsov. He was easily a top talent in that draft and I think teams knew that. There were [legitimate] concerns on if he would come over, and if not for being drafted by a team with the best Russian in the world [and close friend] at the time, he very well may not have ever come over.

Kucherov went in the 2nd mostly because of his size. Had nothing to do with the "Russian factor", as evident by him coming to NA top play in the Q prior to making the NHL.

Buchnevich had good tools, but he did a lot of his developing AFTER being drafted.
 
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kp61c

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i was surprised by how far tarasenko and kuznetsov fell. it seemed to me they were crapped on for no reason at all. strange and dumb. buch and kuch, not so much, though
 

DDRhockey

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Kucherov is helped by playing on a very good line. Would not be as succesful on minnesota or montreal.
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Top 10 for all of them, add Kaprizov to that, as well. You don't magically become that good in two months.
No chance Kaprizov goes top 10 in 2015. He still might not in a re-draft. He wasn't even a 1st rounder before the Russian factor.

The Russian factor had died down by the time of Kaprizov's draft. For example, look at where Gurianov went in 2015 and were Nicushkin went in 2013.
 
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Silver Tuna

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Jun 4, 2011
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Kucherov looked like a star from the second he touched the NHL ice.

I remember telling people how ridiculous he was going to be( or already is) after like 4 games.

His shot was and is lethal. like 10 seconds into his NHL career this was very apparent.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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No chance Kaprizov goes top 10 in 2015. He still might not in a re-draft. He wasn't even a 1st rounder before the Russian factor.

The Russian factor had died down by the time of Kaprizov's draft. For example, look at where Gurianov went in 2015 and were Nicushkin went in 2013.

The Russian factor in relation to drafting applies to certain players and not to others. Usually, Russian players who perform well at the big international tournaments are overrated and those who earn their reputation more within Russia are underrated. Teams often don't invest the proper resources in scouting Russia. If they had, they probably would have watched Kaprizov enough, and picked him earlier than the 5th round. You just aren't going to convince me he improved that much in two months, and I think if you statistically look at his body of work, it very well could've been that of a player who goes top 10.

I'm pretty sure he goes top 10 in a re-draft. McDavid, Eichel, Werenski, Provorov, Marner, Hanifin are the only six I'd take over him.
 
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Kshahdoo

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No chance Kaprizov goes top 10 in 2015. He still might not in a re-draft. He wasn't even a 1st rounder before the Russian factor.

The Russian factor had died down by the time of Kaprizov's draft. For example, look at where Gurianov went in 2015 and were Nicushkin went in 2013.

Hehe, pity it's a new forum, or I would find some nice threads, where people kept saying, that Yakupov >>> Tarasenko, because he was picked 1 OA, and Tarasenko was nothing especial.
 
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93LEAFS

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The Russian factor in relation to drafting applies to certain players and not to others. Usually, Russian players who perform well at the big international tournaments are overrated and those who earn their reputation more within Russia are underrated. Teams often don't invest the proper resources in scouting Russia. If they had, they probably would have watched Kaprizov enough, and picked him earlier than the 5th round. You just aren't going to convince me he improved that much in two months, and I think if you statistically look at his body of work, it very well could've been that of a player who goes top 10.

I'm pretty sure he goes top 10 in a re-draft. McDavid, Eichel, Werenski, Provorov, Marner, Hanifin are the only six I'd take over him.
No one would have taken him top 10. That isn't the Russian factor, players improve rapidly, what about Sebastian Aho's improvement in that same time frame? Should he have gone over the 5th possibly. But, to say he's top 10 is just using hindsight to an extreme. His stats were good enough he should have gone higher than 10th, but to say he should have gone top 10 if not for bias towards Russians like what happened with Tarasenko and Kuznetsov is far-fetched. Yes, his KHL numbers at 17 were similar to Tank and Kuznetsov, but they were also similar to Maxim Kitsyn.

Sebastian Aho and Rantanen would still probably go over him. Then there are the debatable ones like Barzal, Connor, Boeser and Konecny off the top of my head. He's not even currently a lock for top 10.
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Hehe, pity it's a new forum, or I would find some nice threads, where people kept saying, that Yakupov >>> Tarasenko, because he was picked 1 OA, and Tarasenko was nothing especial.
Tarasenko was drafted at the time when the Russian factor was most prevalent which was 2007-2011, which had escalated with no-transfer agreements and what happened with Radulov.

I don't doubt people on this board said things like that, but what people on this board say isn't representative of NHL draft rooms and how the Russian Factor affects draft positions.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Dec 8, 2013
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No one would have taken him top 10. That isn't the Russian factor, players improve rapidly, what about Sebastian Aho's improvement in that same time frame? Should he have gone over the 5th possibly. But, to say he's top 10 is just using hindsight to an extreme. His stats were good enough he should have gone higher than 10th, but to say he should have gone top 10 if not for bias towards Russians like what happened with Tarasenko and Kuznetsov is far-fetched. Yes, his KHL numbers at 17 were similar to Tank and Kuznetsov, but they were also similar to Maxim Kitsyn.

Sebastian Aho and Rantanen would still probably go over him. Then there are the debatable ones like Barzal, Connor, Boeser and Konecny off the top of my head. He's not even currently a lock for top 10.

Aho probably should've been like a mid-first round pick, and I'm pretty sure he suffered from his Liiga team only allowing him to play one game at the 2015 WJC18, but we are talking about a player who went 35. He didn't go 135. Its very possible teams might've had a 15-25 range grade on him, and they instead picked someone else on their list who might've still been available. Also, this was prior to the Finnish hockey revolution, so I do think good Finn's suffered in draft rankings compared to that of players from countries that were doing really well those years. It seems like Finn's now are rated a little more properly, and aren't as susceptible to being overlooked like Aho was.

As for Kaprizov, I'm sure he made some improvements, as players do all the time from one season to the next, but its not like he was some schlub who emerged from nowhere. I don't remember the 2015 all too well, but I do remember studying the 2015 draft, and considering him to be a high upside player that might be overlooked, although it was conventional wisdom that he was not going to go in the first round. That doesn't mean though that he shouldn't have. I'm sure if people studied his game more closely, they'd have settled on him in the first round, at the very least. His stats were really good, his potential was really high, and he was being compared to Sergei Makarov at the time. I would chalk this up more to teams getting his selection wrong than incredible improvements from Kaprizov. It might've been some of both.

I do think he's a lock for top 10. I think I'd have him 7th. If you'd instead have him like 11th or 12th, I don't know what the argument is here.
 

SnowblindNYR

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Am i wrong? Isnt malkin the only russian that has won the conn smythe.

The early 1990s called they want their ignorance back. The Conn Smythe while not 100% a team award is at least half a team award. If you scored 14 points in 7 games but your team loses in the first round that player won't win a Conn Smythe. That's terrible rationale.
 

Atas2000

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
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No chance Kaprizov goes top 10 in 2015. He still might not in a re-draft. He wasn't even a 1st rounder before the Russian factor.

The Russian factor had died down by the time of Kaprizov's draft. For example, look at where Gurianov went in 2015 and were Nicushkin went in 2013.
Both Nichushkin and Gurianov drafted by the same GM IIRC, no? Not a good example for the russian factor subsiding.
 

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