Player Discussion Klim Kostin

Drivesaitl

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Yakov Trenin ended up going through arbitration last year after putting up 17 goals and 24 points in 80 games. But he was also used in more defensive situations and killed penalties for the Preds.

He was awarded 1.7m per year. Kostin in 57 games put up 11 goals and 21 points. Pacing for 15 goals and 29 points over the same 80 games Trenin played. So very similar production but without being a special teams player.
One player had very few minutes. Did you consider that? Kostins EV production/minute is excellent. Especially considering most of his linemates and usage. My take is properly used Kostin could be a 40pt player who also is a heat seeking missile hitting people and fights. Those being intangibles worth something on a team that needs more of the same and especially in playoffs.
 

Bank Shot

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I don't know if it being set in his ways, or if it was a trust thing. Kostin far exceeded expectations, but the guy isn't flawless. Woody must not have liked something about his play.
Well Kostin shot 19.64% at even strength last season.

Draisaitl's best season is 20%. Second best is 17.57%.
McDavid's best is 15.79%.
Hyman's best is 14.81%.
RNH's best is 14%.
Kane's best is 12.9%.

Kostin had the same ballpark shooting % at ES last year as guys like Draisaitl and Stamkos (League's best high percentage shooters) had in their career years.

It is very unlikely he is going to do it again.

Perhaps Woodcroft had a better handle on Kostin's overall talent level than the fans did.

To use poker as an analogy, if you have two big hands in a row do you continue to try and make smart bets and plays, or start taking big risks because you want to ride the hot hand?

The former will pay off much more often than the latter.

I don't think you pay a guy like Kostin more than Keegan Kolesar.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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I think it’s a huge career mis-step if he bolts to the KHL just as he’s getting his nhl career seemingly on track.
 
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Whyme

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Well Kostin shot 19.64% at even strength last season.

Draisaitl's best season is 20%. Second best is 17.57%.
McDavid's best is 15.79%.
Hyman's best is 14.81%.
RNH's best is 14%.
Kane's best is 12.9%.

Kostin had the same ballpark shooting % at ES last year as guys like Draisaitl and Stamkos (League's best high percentage shooters) had in their career years.

It is very unlikely he is going to do it again.

Perhaps Woodcroft had a better handle on Kostin's overall talent level than the fans did.

To use poker as an analogy, if you have two big hands in a row do you continue to try and make smart bets and plays, or start taking big risks because you want to ride the hot hand?

The former will pay off much more often than the latter.

I don't think you pay a guy like Kostin more than Keegan Kolesar.
So if a player has the best season he's ever had you'll put him into a smaller role or don't extend him just in case? I appreciate your message but don't think the poker example has much if anything to do this. In hockey you usually appreciate success, for example Woodcroft would rather be extended if the Oilers won with him. Not sacked for the fear of him not being able to repeat what he's just done.

The shooting % in your message is good info and may have a point, but another way to see it is that Kostin may actually be an efficient scorer which any team could use. After all he did it also in the playoffs.
 
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Whyme

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I like Kostin quite a bit, but I'm hesitant to label him as anything more than a 4th liner and think he should be paid accordingly. He had a hot streak where he put up like 7 goals in 9 games. Otherwise he had what... 4 in the other 1/2+ of the season?
This is actually true and I hadn't quite realized this earlier. He did score well for his low minutes also in playoffs, but I hadn't realized he scored most of his goals in such a short period.
 
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Spawn

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One player had very few minutes. Did you consider that? Kostins EV production/minute is excellent. Especially considering most of his linemates and usage. My take is properly used Kostin could be a 40pt player who also is a heat seeking missile hitting people and fights. Those being intangibles worth something on a team that needs more of the same and especially in playoffs.
I’m just talking about comparables that could be used if he went to arbitration. Not commenting on him as a player.
 
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Evilsports

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I hate that Klim was sent off. He was my youngest girls favorite Oiler and up there on my list as well.

Third on the team in 5on5 goals per 60. Hit like a train, dropped the gloves, and just seems like an overall great teammate. Loved his comfort level at calling out reporters or pranking people. Will miss the guy.
 

duul

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The fact we are keeping guys like Ryan and Mcleod around and letting this guy go is so upsetting man. Two utter do nothings.
 

Drivesaitl

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The fact we are keeping guys like Ryan and Mcleod around and letting this guy go is so upsetting man. Two utter do nothings.
I like both of these players but its likely Ryan is done at somepoint in this contract. I mean how old can the guy play? He's already showing a lot of signs of it and games where he doesn't have it, which is understandable at age. As for McLeod his development as a player has completely flatlined under Woody. He was showing promise under Tippett and so were other young players here. I don't think Woodys tough love scratching and removing minutes from young players is that conducive to their development. Its a joke how little we've seen of Holloway and Bourgault Broberg etc as well. We've even essentially parked the players giving them next to no minutes when they are up.

There seems no recognition to woody what jam players are. Teams desperately need the glue that players like Kostin provide and such players are rarer in present day.
 

duul

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I like both of these players but its likely Ryan is done at somepoint in this contract. I mean how old can the guy play? He's already showing a lot of signs of it and games where he doesn't have it, which is understandable at age. As for McLeod his development as a player has completely flatlined under Woody. He was showing promise under Tippett and so were other young players here. I don't think Woodys tough love scratching and removing minutes from young players is that conducive to their development. Its a joke how little we've seen of Holloway and Bourgault Broberg etc as well. We've even essentially parked the players giving them next to no minutes when they are up.

There seems no recognition to woody what jam players are. Teams desperately need the glue that players like Kostin provide and such players are rarer in present day.
Agreed.

Been thinking about line combos, with Hyman, Brown, Kane, and RNH taking the top six winger spots, we may see a

Holloway-Mcleod-Bourgault

Could be interesting. Kid line with offence and then your fourth line is Foegele-Ryan-Janmark or whatever. I don't know.
 

Drivesaitl

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Agreed.

Been thinking about line combos, with Hyman, Brown, Kane, and RNH taking the top six winger spots, we may see a

Holloway-Mcleod-Bourgault

Could be interesting. Kid line with offence and then your fourth line is Foegele-Ryan-Janmark or whatever. I don't know.
It won't be happening under Woody. Take a look at all the vet league minimum contracts just dragged in this week. People can say its for Bakersfield. I think there will be strong temptation to load up with vets and park the kids one more year. I think that was even stated in regards to Bourgault. Holloway usage to this point has been deplorable. He was even up for long points and not being used, or insignificantly used. The patience with youth mistakes by this coaching staff has been non existent. Make an error and your out of here or riding bench. Hate to see it. I want to see kids making typical youth player mistakes. Because it means they're playing.

Could anybody see Sather or Muckler park the org kids like this? The boys on the bus, would it even have occurred without an abject trust in youth? For sure the kidline would not have occurred with present coaching player usage.
 

duul

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It won't be happening under Woody. Take a look at all the vet league minimum contracts just dragged in this week. People can say its for Bakersfield. I think there will be strong temptation to load up with vets and park the kids one more year. I think that was even stated in regards to Bourgault. Holloway usage to this point has been deplorable. He was even up for long points and not being used, or insignificantly used. The patience with youth mistakes by this coaching staff has been non existent. Make an error and your out of here or riding bench. Hate to see it. I want to see kids making typical youth player mistakes. Because it means they're playing.

Could anybody see Sather or Muckler park the org kids like this? The boys on the bus, would it even have occurred without an abject trust in youth? For sure the kidline would not have occurred with present coaching player usage.
I agree, his usage of Holloway was simply pathetic. Let's not get into Kostin in the playoffs. Weird how he has Desharnais going at every opportunity in comparison.

No coach is perfect, but Woodcroft is the bane of the club. Holloway could have been a real impact player for us in the playoffs if given an opportunity. I keep thinking about watching Derek Ryan out there, Mcleod out there, Foegele out there past the one game where he looked like Gretz. These guys all upset me to watch. You can preach defensive responsibility all you want, but when you are a total black hole offensively, how worth it is your 'responsibility' in the first place? That's something I've never understood. You put a line out there who is never going to score. They're never going to be a net positive in a game, so what's the point? To try and bleed a little less while McDavid is resting?

The biggest cope is when a player is brought in for his PK prowess. Everyone attacks McDavid's defensive play and focus, yet in one season of PKing he had far-and-away the best metrics of any regular PKer ever. Lmao. Guys who go out and PK are the guys who are not good enough to play much at evens or PP usually. That's all it is. This is not a benefit. Saying 'we have tons of guys who can PK' is essentially saying 'we barely have anyone capable of putting the puck in the net on a regular basis'.

Holloway needs big minutes at the NHL level. Bourgault will too going into this upcoming season. I watched a good amount of Bako games and Bourgault is the real deal. I think he might be just as ready as Holloway is for NHL action. Absolute stud, I want to see him play with one of McDrai. I bet he pushes Brown down the lineup by Christmas.

We see other teams kids come into the NHL and shine all of the time. Fighting through mistakes and learning. One slip up and these kids are sent back down to Bako or pressboxed for ten games straight before they get another 4 minutes of ice a month later. It's a horrific strategy. Weird, considering the guy spent years developing players in Bako himself.
 

Drivesaitl

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I agree, his usage of Holloway was simply pathetic. Let's not get into Kostin in the playoffs. Weird how he has Desharnais going at every opportunity in comparison.

No coach is perfect, but Woodcroft is the bane of the club. Holloway could have been a real impact player for us in the playoffs if given an opportunity. I keep thinking about watching Derek Ryan out there, Mcleod out there, Foegele out there past the one game where he looked like Gretz. These guys all upset me to watch. You can preach defensive responsibility all you want, but when you are a total black hole offensively, how worth it is your 'responsibility' in the first place? That's something I've never understood. You put a line out there who is never going to score. They're never going to be a net positive in a game, so what's the point? To try and bleed a little less while McDavid is resting?

The biggest cope is when a player is brought in for his PK prowess. Everyone attacks McDavid's defensive play and focus, yet in one season of PKing he had far-and-away the best metrics of any regular PKer ever. Lmao. Guys who go out and PK are the guys who are not good enough to play much at evens or PP usually. That's all it is. This is not a benefit. Saying 'we have tons of guys who can PK' is essentially saying 'we barely have anyone capable of putting the puck in the net on a regular basis'.

Holloway needs big minutes at the NHL level. Bourgault will too going into this upcoming season. I watched a good amount of Bako games and Bourgault is the real deal. I think he might be just as ready as Holloway is for NHL action. Absolute stud, I want to see him play with one of McDrai. I bet he pushes Brown down the lineup by Christmas.

We see other teams kids come into the NHL and shine all of the time. Fighting through mistakes and learning. One slip up and these kids are sent back down to Bako or pressboxed for ten games straight before they get another 4 minutes of ice a month later. It's a horrific strategy. Weird, considering the guy spent years developing players in Bako himself.
Amen. most posters have fallen into the trope where McLellan, Tippett were the dinosaur coaches and somehow Woody isn't because he's younger. But of them he's been the most inclined to park and to refuse to use youth. To a degree where the conclusion is inescapable. But not just playoffs in regular season he spent the last 2mths loading up McDrai and topsix in pretty meaningless games where we could have gave our stars some rest.

The Desharnais usage is odd because of any of the inexperienced players it was Desharnais that completely unravelled and lost his cool in the LA series. I thought he was going to get more penalties than he did take. The officials let us off the hook on that. Desharnais was often raging, and at officials and somehow got off with that. There was no attempt by the coaching staff seen on ice to cool him down or get him focused. They just kept throwing him over the bench as he got burned alive. In the Vegas series everybody in hockey knew what matchups were getting burned by Vegas, but they just kept occurring home or road.

Woody has large part removed my faith in where the club is headed. How many mistakes do we have to look off with him. He makes more errors than any of his young players do.
 
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Mr Positive

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Amen. most posters have fallen into the trope where McLellan, Tippett were the dinosaur coaches and somehow Woody isn't because he's younger. But of them he's been the most inclined to park and to refuse to use youth. To a degree where the conclusion is inescapable. But not just playoffs in regular season he spent the last 2mths loading up McDrai and topsix in pretty meaningless games where we could have gave our stars some rest.

The Desharnais usage is odd because of any of the inexperienced players it was Desharnais that completely unravelled and lost his cool in the LA series. I thought he was going to get more penalties than he did take. The officials let us off the hook on that. Desharnais was often raging, and at officials and somehow got off with that. There was no attempt by the coaching staff seen on ice to cool him down or get him focused. They just kept throwing him over the bench as he got burned alive. In the Vegas series everybody in hockey knew what matchups were getting burned by Vegas, but they just kept occurring home or road.

Woody has large part removed my faith in where the club is headed. How many mistakes do we have to look off with him. He makes more errors than any of his young players do.
imo there was something unsaid going on with the Kostin situation in the playoffs. It made no sense that he wasn't playing, so much so that it had to something we don't know

With Desharnais, I totally stand by Woody on that one, and it turned out to be the smart thing to do. He definitely had a rough few games, but if you pull him out, I doubt he recovers. Desharnais was the right player to give a long leash to because he is that huge, RD that both series we played just needed. As our team lost that Vegas series, Desharnais actually had recovered a lot and was a great contributor so Woody was vindicated on that one.

Someone brought up Holloway, but I disagree there. Just like how fans bashed Woody for not playing Skinner, I'm totally okay with taking it slow with young players.

People also brought up his defensive systems, that I didn't take much stock in. I always figured the real issue is top pair RD, and that Ceci just was more of a 2nd pair guy at best. However, I've seen some videos on it and some blogs, etc, and I'm coming around to the idea that our D needs much better structure, not just for the Dmen but for the team. Especially with that one quote, I think from Marchessault, where he said that getting to the net was pretty simple
 

Sheikyerbouti

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imo there was something unsaid going on with the Kostin situation in the playoffs. It made no sense that he wasn't playing, so much so that it had to something we don't know

With Desharnais, I totally stand by Woody on that one, and it turned out to be the smart thing to do. He definitely had a rough few games, but if you pull him out, I doubt he recovers. Desharnais was the right player to give a long leash to because he is that huge, RD that both series we played just needed. As our team lost that Vegas series, Desharnais actually had recovered a lot and was a great contributor so Woody was vindicated on that one.

Someone brought up Holloway, but I disagree there. Just like how fans bashed Woody for not playing Skinner, I'm totally okay with taking it slow with young players.

People also brought up his defensive systems, that I didn't take much stock in. I always figured the real issue is top pair RD, and that Ceci just was more of a 2nd pair guy at best. However, I've seen some videos on it and some blogs, etc, and I'm coming around to the idea that our D needs much better structure, not just for the Dmen but for the team. Especially with that one quote, I think from Marchessault, where he said that getting to the net was pretty simple
I agree with it all as per usual Positive, but I don't believe coaching is a major issue despite all of it.

Given our roster the man to man coverage might be too much. It's not Krueger level, but the breakdowns are often missed assignments after switches. But the oilers shoot themselves in the foot when they stop skating, so systems don't matter yet, and this core needs to figure that out.

I also would rather have paid Kostin over Mcleod easy, but I don't think Kostin will ever be able play the minutes Mcleod can. Time will tell.
 

Sheikyerbouti

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his usage of Holloway was simply pathetic
Have you watched Holloway play at lower levels than the NHL?

By my eyes he forced the coaches hand by trying to do too much, he did the same thing when adjusting to the AHL. His whole life he's been able to out compete everyone, so his eyes are bigger than his ability right now. He will figure it out
 

Mr Positive

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I agree with it all as per usual Positive, but I don't believe coaching is a major issue despite all of it.

Given our roster the man to man coverage might be too much. It's not Krueger level, but the breakdowns are often missed assignments after switches. But the oilers shoot themselves in the foot when they stop skating, so systems don't matter yet, and this core needs to figure that out.

I also would rather have paid Kostin over Mcleod easy, but I don't think Kostin will ever be able play the minutes Mcleod can. Time will tell.
I'm really high on McLeod. Having a great 3C would be a huge deal. We saw flashes of greatness from Kostin but we've also seen that from McLeod, but it was longer ago. McLeod was injured and playing not quite 100% in the playoffs. Last playoffs though, wow.

I do wonder if perhaps Holloway could be our McLeod replacement if the timing with him getting paid is just all wrong. That really does suck, but this isn't the decade of darkness where you have all that cap space and make decisions for purely hockey reasons. This new era has it's own challenges, and it's not like Holland is allowed not to spend cap space. For instance, we'd have such an easy time if Holland didn't add one or two of Kane, Hyman and Ekholm. And sure, add Campbell to that mix, but was Holland really allowed to bet the season on Skinner and a busted down Smith? I actually do think Holland screwed up there, not just in hindsight, but I don't blame him for picking a guy and rolling the dice. That's his job. And, he's done that again now with McLeod over Kostin
 

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