JVR-Bozak-Marner or JVR-Bozak-Brown ?

[Nithoniniel]

I want to see Marner and Marleau together so bad. They would do damage together. Marleau will finish all of Marner's creative plays. Great finisher on the left. Marleau will teach that line to play some damn defence too.

Matthews-Nylander
Kadri-JVR
Marleau-Marner

I like the switch on paper, but I don't think Marleau would be a better finisher than JVR at this point in his career.

 

[Gallagbi]

You can run the number as much as you like, you're still overestimating Marner's influence. Yes helped but not in as a significant way as you're suggesting. As Zeke pointed out the power play was a factor and so was usage, Bozak wasn't getting the best defenders with Marner. He was when he was with Kessel and at best they were being split with Kadri the season with PAP.

Marner is helping, he's a good player but people are seriously overestimating his impact on Bozak and JVR's numbers.

Am I overestimating by using their career averages? What do you think is a better method?

We can handicap usage, but how much is offset by the TOI drop? PP certainly improved, but again TOI dropped and how much of the improved PP do we attribute to Marner for that unit? It's not like they spent their PP time with Matthews and Nylander.

I posted the numbers so people can be informed and come to their own conclusion. It makes for a better debate when there is real information.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Am I overestimating by using their career averages? What do you think is a better method?

We can handicap usage, but how much is offset by the TOI drop? PP certainly improved, but again TOI dropped and how much of the improved PP do we attribute to Marner for that unit? It's not like they spent their PP time with Matthews and Nylander.

I posted the numbers so people can be informed and come to their own conclusion. It makes for a better debate when there is real information.

I've never been into analytics with hockey, I respect the practice but I watch hockey to relax and I do enough analytics at work. That being said what does their quality of competition look like with and without Marner?

I just think looking purely at the point average isn't telling the whole story.

 

[firstemperor]

I think that's ignoring Marner's flaws, his creativity is amazing but it's also led to some truly bone headed moves that put him way out of position. Marner is great at passing but he also makes a lot of dangerous passes.

Really think it was just that one game against the Rangers where he was out of sorts/down-right terrible for the first 2 periods. Marner is a legitimately good, not average or below-average 200 foot player. He has one of the best sticks on our team and his gap-control around the neutral zone is among the best on our team. He's also underappreciated for his take-away ability.

I've read some people suggest he's bad defensively, despite skating/working hard. That's not true at all.

 

[Gallagbi]

I've never been into analytics with hockey, I respect the practice but I watch hockey to relax and I do enough analytics at work. That being said what does their quality of competition look like with and without Marner?

I just think looking purely at the point average isn't telling the whole story.

You're absolutely welcome to grab QOC numbers and post them if you want, but I'm not sure where to grab them for the sample and even then I wouldn't be sure how to weigh them vs. expected production impact. Last I saw the analytics community wasn't big on QOC, but that may have changed.

I'd also say points is a fair way to measure increased production, which is what the poster I originally quoted asked for. I'm open to hear your suggestions for handicapping the numbers though.

 

[thewave]

This line pissed me off. Bozak and JVR were sub par but had flashes of good play, but the head scratcher once again was Mitch...

Mitch Marner was jitterbugging all over the ice and looked like the best player out there. That is not a joke, he looked like something different UNTIL, the end of the play where he needs to do something. What the heck happens in the last seconds that he makes a crazy off theark pass, holds it just a little long, flubs a shot at the crest?

Many flubbed passes, many pointless 50/50 puck shoot ins. Mitch needs to refine.

 

[The Apologist]

IIRC, Bozak did not play with Kessel his second season? Without that one season he is closer to a .7 ppg player.
JVRs numbers are pretty comparable with both Kessel and Mitch. I will try and put together and accurate PPG pace with both including QOC (for those who are interested) this evening.

Being a Kessel level player is nothing to sneeze at and its not shocking that their PPG would be higher with Marner than PA, Mitch is a better player. Bozak and JVR are quite talented on their own however.

 

[RLF]

I was interested so I took a look at some numbers.

Bozak saw a surprising spike in production with Marner last year. Not a career season IMO, but he's been a 50 pt (pace) player over his whole career. He was that with Kessel, he was that the season without Kessel. Last year he jumped to a 58 point pace, which is pretty surprising given his reduced role and drop in TOI.

JVR was closer to his Kessel-era numbers, but still slightly ahead (62 vs. 58 pt pace) with the lower TOI last season.

I see a case for saying Marner drove their stats.

Marner is a creative player, but comparing two completely different Leaf teams under two different coaches, systems of play, usage and overall personal really shows nothing unfortunately. The whole team was better last year than the Kessel years, so logic would suggest we would see guys having better years than past years when the team was worst. The only way to know if the line is better with Marner than Kessel is if all variables were exactly the same...and they aren't even close to the same in this case. Don't mean to direct this at you, but honestly, people need to stop looking at past stats to try and prove/figure out what is happening now when all the variables are so different. imho.

 

[Gallagbi]

Marner is a creative player, but comparing two completely different Leaf teams under two different coaches, systems of play, usage and overall personal really shows nothing unfortunately. The whole team was better last year than the Kessel years, so logic would suggest we would see guys having better years than past years when the team was worst. The only way to know if the line is better with Marner than Kessel is if all variables were exactly the same...and they aren't even close to the same in this case. Don't mean to direct this at you, but honestly, people need to stop looking at past stats to try and prove/figure out what is happening now when all the variables are so different. imho.

Since variables will never be the same, this is unfortunately all we have. I also disagree that better team = better stats for all when you have players dropping from first line minutes to 2nd/3rd. Usually a drop in opportunities like that means a drop in production.


I'd also say we shouldn't ignore the variables, you consider and account to the best of our abilities. Zeke mentioned PP production, I mentioned reduce TOI, we know quality of linemates, etc..

Marner's doesn't make JVR or Bozak's NHLers, they're more than capable without him. I do believe he pushed them to a higher level than normal last year though. Behind what Kessel did at his best, but better than the expected performance for JVR and Bozak last year.

 

[RLF]

Since variables will never be the same, this is unfortunately all we have. I also disagree that better team = better stats for all when you have players dropping from first line minutes to 2nd/3rd. Usually a drop in opportunities like that means a drop in production.


I'd also say we shouldn't ignore the variables, you consider and account to the best of our abilities. Zeke mentioned PP production, I mentioned reduce TOI, we know quality of linemates, etc..

Marner's doesn't make JVR or Bozak's NHLers, they're more than capable without him. I do believe he pushed them to a higher level than normal last year though. Behind what Kessel did at his best, but better than the expected performance for JVR and Bozak last year.

Sorry man, I disagree. A better team usually helps everyone's stats. The 3 lines now play similar minutes, so the other team can't just key in on one line. We have two excellent PP units now over 1 then. Our defence moves the puck better, our structure (last season) and compete are better. Look through the lineup, lots of guys had better seasons, Kadri, Gardiner etc. The whole team scored more, so it goes to reason, so will JVR and Bozak if they continue to play with an offensive minded forward and get PP time. Now, if Marner goes off the line and they play with say Marleau/Nylander instead this year, now you have something that can be better compared.imo

 

[The Podium]

I want to see Marner and Marleau together so bad. They would do damage together. Marleau will finish all of Marner's creative plays. Great finisher on the left. Marleau will teach that line to play some damn defence too.

Matthews-Nylander
Kadri-JVR
Marleau-Marner

I like the idea, also would prefer Brown to JVR with Kadri. The Kadri line has been a great shutdown line, I dont want to mess with that by adding a defensive liability. If Babs was going to do a line shuffle I'd like to see

JVR - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Bozak - Marner
Brown - Kadri - Komarov
Hyman (I know, wont happen) - Moore/Fehr - Martin

 

[ACC1224]

I like the idea, also would prefer Brown to JVR with Kadri. The Kadri line has been a great shutdown line, I dont want to mess with that by adding a defensive liability. If Babs was going to do a line shuffle I'd like to see

JVR - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Bozak - Marner
Brown - Kadri - Komarov
Hyman (I know, wont happen) - Moore/Fehr - Martin

JVR with Matthews would be terrible, IMO. It would force Matthews to focus far too much on defense and take away from his offensive game, similar to the effect it's having on Marner.

Best place for JVR is on Giroux or Getzlaf's wing, IMO.

 

[Trapper]

I know people don't like the concept of +/- but I believe it is a tool to be used like any other.
It shouldn't be to assign blame and you need to have a good understanding of all the events that transpired along with it.
At present though, Bozak/JVR/Marner are a combined -12. Rielly is coming in at -4 and Rosen at -3. 3 other players are at a -1 or and the rest are all positive.
Now here is where the tool should be used as an investigation method. What is causing these numbers? Perhaps it is time to reconfigure the Bozak line. Is a player like Brown needed to provide some stability?

 

[zeke]

eh +/- is a terrible stat, but they're the worst line by all the adjusted possession stats, too, even though they get the easiest matchups.

 

[thewave]

I know people don't like the concept of +/- but I believe it is a tool to be used like any other.
It shouldn't be to assign blame and you need to have a good understanding of all the events that transpired along with it.
At present though, Bozak/JVR/Marner are a combined -12. Rielly is coming in at -4 and Rosen at -3. 3 other players are at a -1 or and the rest are all positive.
Now here is where the tool should be used as an investigation method. What is causing these numbers? Perhaps it is time to reconfigure the Bozak line. Is a player like Brown needed to provide some stability?

When a player has a perennial - then upon further investigation it is generally found that more exotic stats shed light as to why. Usually when a - player is watched by fans, they are complaining about them because the simple eye test as well

 

[Trapper]

When a player has a perennial - then upon further investigation it is generally found that more exotic stats shed light as to why. Usually when a - player is watched by fans, they are complaining about them because the simple eye test as well

I'd like to know how Babcock feels about that line. All the talk about re-signing JVR (and then Bozak is UFA as well) I just ask why JVR was moved with Moore and not switched with Marleau. Without reading into anything here.

 

[one77]

Break the line up, or at least get Marner off of it. I understand it's a sheltered/good 3rd line that is a threat offensively, and Babcock loves that. But come on, it's such a weak part of this lineup...

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
JVR - Bozak - Brown
Martin - Moore - Komarov

 

[ACC1224]

Break the line up, or at least get Marner off of it. I understand it's a sheltered/good 3rd line that is a threat offensively, and Babcock loves that. But come on, it's such a weak part of this lineup...

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
JVR - Bozak - Brown
Martin - Moore - Komarov

Brown won't make it any better. The two that are the issue and need breaking up are JVR/Bozak.

I'd do this.
Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Marleau - Bozak - Marner
Martin - Fehr - JVR

 

[one77]

Brown won't make it any better. The two that are the issue and need breaking up are JVR/Bozak.

I'd do this.
Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Marleau - Bozak - Marner
Martin - Fehr - JVR

I disagree. I think that line just needs a player who will add some good strong defensive presence to it. Brown/Komarov would allow JVR/Bozak to run free as they usually do and it should hurt us a little bit less having a Brown/Komarov on one side.

Plus, why would you waste JVR on the 4th line?

 

[Pi]

eh +/- is a terrible stat, but they're the worst line by all the adjusted possession stats, too, even though they get the easiest matchups.

Which is why it's so puzzling that they are still together. People can put blame on a lot of things for our playoff loss against the Caps but I think the #1 reason we lost was the Bozak line not being able to do anything on ES despite getting the easiest match up.

 

[Trapper]

Brown won't make it any better. The two that are the issue and need breaking up are JVR/Bozak.

I'd do this.
Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Marleau - Bozak - Marner
Martin - Fehr - JVR

You would think at the very least someone you could possibly (don't know) keep long term, you could arrange it a little like:
JVR-Kadri-Komarov
Marleau-Bozak-Marner
Let's see how that does.

 

[ACC1224]

I disagree. I think that line just needs a player who will add some good strong defensive presence to it. Brown/Komarov would allow JVR/Bozak to run free as they usually do and it should hurt us a little bit less having a Brown/Komarov on one side.

Plus, why would you waste JVR on the 4th line?

I don't think there's a player in the league that could cover up for those two. Hiding one weak defensive player on a line is doable, hiding two is next to impossible.

JVR on the 4th is where he is on the winger depth chart, IMO. Prepare for life after he's gone as well.

 

[Mess]

I don't think there's a player in the league that could cover up for those two. Hiding one weak defensive player on a line is doable, hiding two is next to impossible.

JVR on the 4th is where he is on the winger depth chart, IMO. Prepare for life after he's gone as well.

When Babs sent JVR out there on a shift with Martin and Moore the 4th liners in the 3rd while promoting Brown, that sent a pretty loud and clear message to JVR as to where the coach believes his play ES places him.

Loved Babs sending that message yesterday.

JVR to a team that needs offense for a top 4 Dman, has to be something Leafs management is seriously attempting to pull off. IMO

 

[Pi]

When Babs sent JVR out there on a shift with Martin and Moore the 4th liners in the 3rd while promoting Brown, that sent a pretty loud and clear message to JVR as to where the coach believes his play ES places him.

Loved Babs sending that message yesterday.

JVR to a team that needs offense for a top 4 Dman, has to be something Leafs management is seriously attempting to pull off. IMO

We tried doing it last year but we avoided a brutal trade. JvR+1st was what was reported for Hamonic.

 

[Mess]

We tried doing it last year but we avoided a brutal trade. JvR+1st was what was reported for Hamonic.

JVR is a NJ born boy.

Leafs should have sent him home along with the Devils last night, and they could have left Damon Severson a RHD behind as compensation in trade.

Both players have similar cap hits to boot.

That is the kind of move I'm hoping Lou Lam can pull off.