Not sure what your idea of a blank check is (15m per?), because I think the Islanders can win with Tavares carrying a cap hit in the 10-12M per range.
I've heard the talking heads on TSN (Dreger, Lebrun) mention numbers like $15 million per year. I also have heard people talk about him getting "max money". Those would be examples of cap hits that, IMO, would absolutely come back to haunt any team (Islander or if he goes free agent) that signed him to it.
My personal number would be within range of his "peers". Look at the contracts of guys who produce similar to him, adjust based on percentage of the current cap ceiling, and that's about what I'd say is fair for him. Even add an extra $500k to that total, if that's what it takes for him to re-sign. Anything above that and I think you're starting to get into the territory where his contract prevents the new GM (assuming Snow is finally fired, otherwise this is moot) from fixing the other holes in the lineup.
For instance, these are the players who I'd consider "comparables" to Tavares, both in terms of age and performance over the last however many years, their cap hits, and what the cap ceiling was when they signed their deals:
Giroux - $8.275 million ($69 million)
Stamkos - $8.5 million ($75 million)
Getzlaf - $8.25 million ($64.3 million)
Kopitar - $10 million ($73 million)
Toews - $10.5 million ($71.4 million)
Kane - $10.5 million ($71.4 million)
Toews and Kane come in at the highest percentage of the cap at around 14.7% each, with Stamkos coming in at the lowest percentage of the cap at just over 11%. So assuming a $82 million cap next season, that would put Tavares' comparable salary at between $9 million to $12 million per year.
IMO, the target number should be between $10 million to $11 million, which would both pay Tavares fairly and leave enough cap space to address the other needs.
The gaping holes you mention are present on this team, I agree. With that said, good drafting is what gives you depth up front, and you HAVE TO draft and develop your own defensemen. They just rarely become available and there is always a limited market for them.
To an extent, for sure. But, you also have to have some cap space available for when someone you need becomes available. Tying up too much money in one player means less available cap space should a player that plays another position of need become available.
Keep in mind that while drafting and developing is certainly huge for teams to become contenders, no team has ever won the Cup with a roster 100% filled by players they drafted. Chicago, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Boston, Detroit, they've all won Cups in large part due to additions. And those additions came with hefty cap hits.
On top of that, good coaching can elevate the play of depth guys and can develop a system that benefits their goalies.
Garth Snow has not done well enough at the draft table continue to churn out forwards for his lineup and has surely not drafted and developed his to defenseman. Hell, he was a goalie and has never drafted and developed one either! but I don’t see that as a necessity from a GM.
Capuano was able to elevate the play of depth guys, but wasn’t able to get much out of the rest of the team, and Weight only knows how to extract talent from top six forwards.
I agree 100%. Which is why I said originally I'm not blaming Tavares for this season. Again, look no further than Edmonton to see how even if a guy is playing like the best player in hockey, one man alone can't change the fortunes of an ineptly run club. I was merely commenting on the only thing Tavares can control: his individual performance.
