Player Discussion: Joel Armia - Part II

[LoveNHL]

It is great to see Armia doing well. Met him at Pori Jazz festival a few years ago. He seems to be a funny guy.

 

[surixon]

Armia is scoring quite well for the amount of minutes he's getting. He' easily a solid third line guy when you factor in his defense and PK ability. It' nice to see him being used more on the PK these days.

 

[pylon17]

His goals per minute are the same as Frolik's.

 

[JetsFan815]

His goals per minute are the same as Frolik's.

The value that Frolik brought was beyond goals. He was never a goalscorer

 

[pylon17]

The value that Frolik brought was beyond goals. He was never a goalscorer

No doubt. Just saying Armia is just as good as Frolik on offense because we already knew he was on defense.

 

[truck]

No doubt. Just saying Armia is just as good as Frolik on offense because we already knew he was on defense.

They are not in the same class at this point.

 

[TannedBum]

They are not in the same class at this point.

True. Armia has gone past Frolik, as expected.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

True. Armia has gone past Frolik, as expected.

Based on what, exactly? I really like what Armia brings, but: better than Frolik? Not yet.

 

[ps241]

True. Armia has gone past Frolik, as expected.

Come on Sabrenator?

 

[Ducky10]

The threads on Finnish players all seem to have the same theme. Held back by coach and forced to play with terrible players and supressing their massive talent.

Armia is not on the same level as Frolik, I'm not sure how anyone can objectively say that.

 

[TannedBum]

Okay, i was just kidding. Frolik has been massively better also this year.

34gp 4+9=13 TOI 10:47

36gp 7+8=15 TOI 17:26

But yeah, Armia is playing with He'drinks, so he has a huge advantage.

 

[204hockey]

frolik has a muffin of a shot and is no where near as good as armia on the wall. armia as of now is better than frolik but frolik at same age as armia was better and had better years prior. if armia now got the same ice time as frolik was getting at armias age he would be putting up similar numbers 15 goals 25 assists 40 points, frolik was better defensively though

 

[Maukkis]

Okay, i was just kidding. Frolik has been massively better also this year.

34gp 4+9=13 TOI 10:47

36gp 7+8=15 TOI 17:26

But yeah, Armia is playing with He'drinks, so he has a huge advantage.

This is purposefully ignoring things to make a more convincing case. Does the name Perreault ring any bells?

Moreover, Frolik is used in a shutdown role (and his line DOMINATES its matchups, which is bloody impressive), so he is in a worse position to produce by default. His OISH% is also 5.23, which is ridiculously low (as is his primary linemates'). That suggests that with any luck, his scoring should go up noticeably. Meanwhile, Armia gets consistent fourth line matchups in an above average unit, gets to play significantly more on the PP and is rarely in a shutdown role. His shooting percentage is rather normal, too.

The gap is there, whether you see it or not.

 

[TannedBum]

This is purposefully ignoring things to make a more convincing case. Does the name Perreault ring any bells?

Moreover, Frolik is used in a shutdown role (and his line DOMINATES its matchups, which is bloody impressive), so he is in a worse position to produce by default. His OISH% is also 5.23, which is ridiculously low (as is his primary linemates'). That suggests that with any luck, his scoring should go up noticeably. Meanwhile, Armia gets consistent fourth line matchups in an above average unit, gets to play significantly more on the PP and is rarely in a shutdown role. His shooting percentage is rather normal, too.

The gap is there, whether you see it or not.

Yup, he's playing kind of shorthanded with Perreault. That's impressive.

Frolik has almost two times more TOI and he's in a worse position to produce ?

There isn't "things" i could purposefully ignore. Those stats tells more than enough. You are making excuses.

 

[Maukkis]

Yup, he's playing kind of shorthanded with Perreault. That's impressive.

Frolik has almost two times more TOI and he's in a worse position to produce ?

There isn't "things" i could purposefully ignore. Those stats tells more than enough. You are making excuses.

What are you on about?

You can say that he is in a very favourable position on the basis of Perreault being his linemate, or you can say that he is in a bad position because of Hendricks. Alternatively, you can choose to acknowledge both. Why ignore Perreault, who is the best player playing on the fourth line in the league?

Also, why do you brush off the fact that Frolik plays shutdown minutes? The minutes he gets are tough and usually involve a lot of defensive play. It's not like those extra minutes are specifically spent in the offensive zone.

And whether you like it or not, points and TOI tell very little about the player and are not sufficient for making comparisons. By looking at the stats you provided, we learn nothing about the player's defensive play, role, ability to drive play etc.

 

[suihkukone]

The threads on Finnish players all seem to have the same theme. Held back by coach and forced to play with terrible players and supressing their massive talent.

Yup, get a talented finnish center and put them all in the same line. That should stop some of us *****ing.

Seriously, though, I'd like if the coach rotated RW as much as he does LW (in times of trouble). I'd like to see how Armia matches with Ehlers or Little. Personally, I wouldn't be worried by this lineup.

 

[Maukkis]

Yup, get a talented finnish center and put them all in the same line. That should stop some of us *****ing.

Seriously, though, I'd like if the coach rotated RW as much as he does LW (in times of trouble). I'd like to see how Armia matches with Ehlers or Little. Personally, I wouldn't be worried by this lineup.

Watch us draft Kotkaniemi. I've made that prediction in the past, and we may very well end up drafting around where he is projected to go. I believe.

Our RWs are much harder to rotate than our LWs. Both Wheeler and Laine have absolutely no business playing with Hendricks and very little business playing with Lowry (this is more about how Lowry is deployed, not about how well they would fit together). That rules out quite a lot of changes. Tanev, on the other hand, should not be played with Scheifele and Little; his game lacks the offense, plain and simple. I reckon we could get by with double-shifting Lowry or Little so that Perreault and Armia could play more minutes with a better center, though.

 

[TannedBum]

By looking at the stats you provided, we learn nothing about the player's defensive play, role, ability to drive play etc.

Forward X has overall 17:30 toi and you don't have a clue what kind of role he has ? Really ?

 

[Maukkis]

Forward X has overall 17:30 toi and you don't have a clue what kind of role he has ? Really ?

Because your minutes are all that counts, right?

Do you understand the difference between defense and offense?

 

[pylon17]

Good game by Army tonight, make em eat it!

 

[Randal61]

Big gap my ass

 

[scelaton]

I think Armia has outperformed Mathias over the past 2 seasons, and should get a similar $$, roughly 2mill, not sure what kind of term he gets?

He's on a very nice upward trajectory and worth a lot more than that. I had previously suggested $22M over 6 years and he has done nothing to make me change my mind. (Even you suggested more than $3M AAV at that time....)
Joel Armia - Part II

 

[surixon]

He's on a very nice upward trajectory and worth a lot more than that. I had previously suggested $22M over 6 years and he has done nothing to make me change my mind. (Even you suggested more than $3M AAV at that time....)
Joel Armia - Part II

In a cap world you can't pay your third and fourth line guys big money nor is it wise to give them term. 2 years with a 2 million cap hit is the essentially the most I would do.

 

[pylon17]

The most you’d do? Take a look around, Brown and Hyman both got more than that. I can tell you right now that Armia could easily be a big contributor on the Leafs’ 2nd line, or even the 1st if it weren’t for Hyman being Babcock’s son. There are tons of teams where he could play on their 1st line and on both special teams no less. Cha-ching $. I bet he’s on many GM’s radar.

 

[scelaton]

In a cap world you can't pay your third and fourth line guys big money nor is it wise to give them term. 2 years with a 2 million cap hit is the essentially the most I would do.

Penny wise-pound foolish. He'd be gone in a flash after those 2 years, for nothing.
Trust me, I know all about the cap--it's going up, apparently-- and have been pretty conservative and accurate playing armchair GM.
Armia is the most under-rated player here since Bryan Little. He is not your typical bottom 6 winger, any more than Perreault is. Speaking of whom, when the Jets signed Perreault for $3Mx3 (~$3.5M in projected 2018 dollars) , he was 26 and envisioned as a middle six C, likely behind Little and Scheifele. He thrived and is now costing them, as an almost 30 year old, $>4M AAV. Armia is 2 years younger than Perreault was when he first signed here and is just entering his prime. You have identify such players before they break out and sign them LT for an AAV that gets cheaper by the year.