Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 (Part VII)

[Gm0ney]

Playoff bound teams value 'intangibles' certainly. But a lot goes into intangible and I simply don't buy that Ladd's are so much better than Vermette's.

Ladd was a 3rd liner on a Stanley Cup winning team and a 4th liner on another. He was a 3rd liner on another team that made the finals.

Vermette was a 2nd liner, main PKer and main faceoff man for a team that made it to the finals. He was also the 1st line center and leading scorer for a Coyotes team that made it to the conference finals in 2012.

I just don't buy that Ladd's playoff experience exceeds Vermette's but such a degree that it puts Ladd on an entirely different level. And I don't buy that Ladd's higher level of production out weights Vermette's much higher level of PK and faceoff ability.

I think the problem is that you are phrasing what you are expecting as a 1st plus a better prospect than Dahlbeck.

The problem is, prospects like Crouse and Vrana are already a much much better package than a 1st plus a meh prospect.

Most teams would rather give up two late 1st rounders than part with one prospect on the level of Crouse/Vrana.

Florida alone probably has ten prospects that are significantly better than Dahlbeck but worse than Crouse.

So Vermette had 5 points in 20 games as Ottawa's 2nd line C in their run to the Cup? A regular Claude Lemieux!

Also, I'd say Ladd might be the individual most responsible for Carolina's Cup win...

Edit: Ladd's stat line from Carolina's Cup winning run: 17gp, 2g, 3a, 5p. So he contributed as much offense from the 4th line as Vermette did in 3 more games as 2C? Huh...

 

[untouchable21]

I'd like the see the results of a Ladd vs Vermette poll on the main board. Good arguments both ways.

Preface it if you're a contending team, who do you give up more for as a rental? Or are they considered equal?

 

[almostawake]

So Vermette had 5 points in 20 games as Ottawa's 2nd line C in their run to the Cup? A regular Claude Lemieux!

Also, I'd say Ladd might be the individual most responsible for Carolina's Cup win...

Edit: Ladd's stat line from Carolina's Cup winning run: 17gp, 2g, 3a, 5p. So he contributed as much offense from the 4th line as Vermette did in 3 more games as 2C? Huh...

Anyways, my point isn't that Vermette isn't a great playoff performer. The point is simply that it is false to point at Ladd's playoff experience and claim he is an entire cut above Vermette because of it.

Ladd played a small role on two Stanley Cup winning teams and another that made it to the final.

Vermette played a slightly larger role on a team that made it to the finals, and a much larger role on a team that made it to the conference finals.

IMO teams will value Ladd's playoff experience a bit more than Vermette's. I've never said other wise.

It is enough for a team to give what is essentially another 1st round pick on top of what Vermette got though?

 

[cbcwpg]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/decisions-on-byfuglien-and-ladd-can-make-or-break-jets-future/

According to this author....

The Jets were originally loathe to give more than about three years worth of term to Byfuglien, who turns 31 on March 27. Why is that? Because even though the feeling on Byfuglien is that he cares and wants to win in Winnipeg, nobody trusts him to stay in proper physical shape, a reputation he has earned by spending an entire career at various stages of overweight.

That goes to show what a prodigal hockey player Byfuglien is, that he could play at such a high level with a lax training regime, against a league full of players in tip-top condition. The fear is, however, that will change as a player hits his early- to mid-30s, when players tend to slow down and incur more injuries.

***

Could the Jets or any team Buff was traded to not put "physical performance" criteria into a contract to make sure Buff stays in shape or is this against the CBA? Or what would happen to the player if they just fail their physical in training camp one year? There must be some protection for the team if a player shows up in terrible shape you would think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't really view those guys as comparable as they both play different positons that are at a premium relative to a left winger. There's also a looming cap crunch that will have teams hesitant to give up guys who are going to be players for them soon.

Teams are also thinking about what they are buying. 20 games of Ladd in this season, and his value is greatly affected by his current level of play as there's no long-term thinking on the rental market.

If you get a first, that's all your getting. If you get a legit NHL prospect, that's all you're getting. Otherwise we're looking at a 2nd-3rd round pick (maybe conditional) and a middling prospect I believe.

You are describing the arguments we all use every year to describe why this or that or another rental buyer paid way too much. Every year a bunch of rentals get returns that are completely illogical by that argument. Win now trumps it. Every year.

 

[Grind]

Anyways, my point isn't that Vermette isn't a great playoff performer. The point is simply that it is false to point at Ladd's playoff experience and claim he is an entire cut above Vermette because of it.

Ladd played a small role on two Stanley Cup winning teams and another that made it to the final.

Vermette played a slightly larger role on a team that made it to the finals, and a much larger role on a team that made it to the conference finals.

IMO teams will value Ladd's playoff experience a bit more than Vermette's. I've never said other wise.

It is enough for a team to give what is essentially another 1st round pick on top of what Vermette got though?

Using language like this gets you in trouble when your talking about something as esoteric as what this debate is now focused on (how other GM's will value varying sets of intangibles, it's completely subjective to the individual) as no one has any real evidence to either side.

But you were right with your last post, the jump in value from vrana/crouse/etc to 1st+dahlbeck is too big to set the bar there.

I think i would be pretty well fine with a Vrana/Crouse straight swap for ladd (these are guys drafted by teams in non playoff positions).

I would assume proper value would be something like a Late 1st and a prospect on the same level as De Leo/Harkins. Not something Petan level, but someone with still fairly reasonable chances of becoming an NHL piece of worth.

I got back to Kempe because i fyou look at it from the stance of say 28 ova and 30th ova, that seems like probably proper value. The only change their is Kempe's already trending closer to something liek 20th OVA value and that's where we run into problems again.

 

[Grind]

You are describing the arguments we all use every year to describe why this or that or another rental buyer paid way too much. Every year a bunch of rentals get returns that are completely illogical by that argument. Win now trumps it. Every year.

except the deadline two years ago. Which seems to be the imputus for every "buying" team to set their offers extremely low.

I'd say every other year there's a "filip forsberg for martin erat" type trade.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Playoff bound teams value 'intangibles' certainly. But a lot goes into intangible and I simply don't buy that Ladd's are so much better than Vermette's.

Ladd was a 3rd liner on a Stanley Cup winning team and a 4th liner on another. He was a 3rd liner on another team that made the finals.

Vermette was a 2nd liner, main PKer and main faceoff man for a team that made it to the finals. He was also the 1st line center and leading scorer for a Coyotes team that made it to the conference finals in 2012.

I just don't buy that Ladd's playoff experience exceeds Vermette's but such a degree that it puts Ladd on an entirely different level. And I don't buy that Ladd's higher level of production out weights Vermette's much higher level of PK and faceoff ability.

I think the problem is that you are phrasing what you are expecting as a 1st plus a better prospect than Dahlbeck.

The problem is, prospects like Crouse and Vrana are already a much much better package than a 1st plus a meh prospect.

Most teams would rather give up two late 1st rounders than part with one prospect on the level of Crouse/Vrana.

Florida alone probably has ten prospects that are significantly better than Dahlbeck but worse than Crouse.

After Crouse they have Jayce Hawryluk who might be a legit prospect and Michael Matheson who does not look too promising at all and then nothing. Dahlbeck is playing in the NHL, something that few of Florida's 'prospects' will ever do. Who are these 10? People keep talking about Florida's wealth of young prospects. I don't get it. All their good young players are already NHL regulars. Who are these prospects?

 

[cheswick]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/decisions-on-byfuglien-and-ladd-can-make-or-break-jets-future/

According to this author....

The Jets were originally loathe to give more than about three years worth of term to Byfuglien, who turns 31 on March 27. Why is that? Because even though the feeling on Byfuglien is that he cares and wants to win in Winnipeg, nobody trusts him to stay in proper physical shape, a reputation he has earned by spending an entire career at various stages of overweight.

That goes to show what a prodigal hockey player Byfuglien is, that he could play at such a high level with a lax training regime, against a league full of players in tip-top condition. The fear is, however, that will change as a player hits his early- to mid-30s, when players tend to slow down and incur more injuries.

***

Could the Jets or any team Buff was traded to not put "physical performance" criteria into a contract to make sure Buff stays in shape or is this against the CBA? Or what would happen to the player if they just fail their physical in training camp one year? There must be some protection for the team if a player shows up in terrible shape you would think.

All players sign standard player contracts. Part of the contract says they must report to camp in "good physical condition" and over the course of the season remain in "good physical condition". So it's pretty vague. But yes the team can fine or suspend a player for not conforming with the stipulation.

 

[Guerzy]

Playoff bound teams value 'intangibles' certainly. But a lot goes into intangible and I simply don't buy that Ladd's are so much better than Vermette's.

Ladd was a 3rd liner on a Stanley Cup winning team and a 4th liner on another. He was a 3rd liner on another team that made the finals.

Vermette was a 2nd liner, main PKer and main faceoff man for a team that made it to the finals. He was also the 1st line center and leading scorer for a Coyotes team that made it to the conference finals in 2012.

I just don't buy that Ladd's playoff experience exceeds Vermette's but such a degree that it puts Ladd on an entirely different level. And I don't buy that Ladd's higher level of production out weights Vermette's much higher level of PK and faceoff ability.

I think the problem is that you are phrasing what you are expecting as a 1st plus a better prospect than Dahlbeck.

The problem is, prospects like Crouse and Vrana are already a much much better package than a 1st plus a meh prospect.

Most teams would rather give up two late 1st rounders than part with one prospect on the level of Crouse/Vrana.

Florida alone probably has ten prospects that are significantly better than Dahlbeck but worse than Crouse.

Ottawa's centers were 1. Spezza 2. Fisher 3. Vermette and I believe 4. Kelly.

So, your argument that Vermette played 2nd line and Ladd played 3rd line during their respective runs to the Cup is factually incorrect. Look up the ice-time distribution for yourself. And there wasn't one game in that 2007 Stanley Cup final where Vermette played more minutes than either Spezza or Fisher.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...e=3&sort=timeOnIce&aggregate=0&teamId=9&pos=C

As for the return, like I have said all along, I believe Ladd can return a better prospect than the Vermette package. If that prospect is Vrana, Crouse, etc.. then yes, the pick likely is not a 1st, maybe a 2nd or not even. I was spit balling when making those proposals but if you take a look I even have 2nd rounders in the package when I listed Vrana, Crouse, etc. I am listing in the ballpark of what I believe Ladd can fetch us via trade.

We will simply agree to disagree on Vermette vs. Ladd as a playoff rental, experience, etc.. as I value a guy with 2 cup wins and the experience that goes with it, combined with Ladd's career resume, over Vermette's. But that's just my own opinion.

 

[ps241]

Ottawa's centers were 1. Spezza 2. Fisher 3. Vermette and I believe 4. Kelly.

So, your argument that Vermette played 2nd line and Ladd played 3rd line during their respective runs to the Cup is factually incorrect. Look up the ice-time distribution for yourself. And there wasn't one game in that 2007 Stanley Cup final where Vermette played more minutes than either Spezza or Fisher.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...e=3&sort=timeOnIce&aggregate=0&teamId=9&pos=C

As for the return, like I have said all along, I believe Ladd can return a better prospect than the Vermette package. If that prospect is Vrana, Crouse, etc.. then yes, the pick likely is not a 1st, maybe a 2nd or not even. I was spit balling when making those proposals but if you take a look I even have 2nd rounders in the package when I listed Vrana, Crouse, etc. I am listing in the ballpark of what I believe Ladd can fetch us via trade.

We will simply agree to disagree on Vermette vs. Ladd as a playoff rental, experience, etc.. as I value a guy with 2 cup wins and the experience that goes with it, combined with Ladd's career resume, over Vermette's. But that's just my own opinion.

Tinfoil hat Alert.

I have this sneaking suspicion (100% gut) that Postma might be in play as part of a "possible" package with Ladd. Felt like odd timing to get him on a conditioning stint unless it was to polish him up for trade? So now a team can get a bit of juice on the Ladd deal by bringing back a proven bottom pairing RHD man that would be an awesome PP2 low cost asset.

Your A prospect LHD plus a 1st for Ladd and Postma? Only works if the other team wanted Postma in the deal too.

 

[almostawake]

After Crouse they have Jayce Hawryluk who might be a legit prospect and Michael Matheson who does not look too promising at all and then nothing. Dahlbeck is playing in the NHL, something that few of Florida's 'prospects' will ever do. Who are these 10? People keep talking about Florida's wealth of young prospects. I don't get it. All their good young players are already NHL regulars. Who are these prospects?

Dahlbeck's in the NHL but his upside is very low. He's a 3rd pairing and PK guy but lacks the tools to be much more. And he's already 24 years old.

Is he useful? Certainly. But he's the kind of player you can probably find in UFA if you need one.

IMO Hawryluk, Matheson, Grimaldi, Petrovic, Brickley, McCoshen and Lammikko are all better prospects than Dahlbeck was when he was traded. Guys like Schmitsch, Malgin and Rau are more debatable.

Of course very few of these players will ever carve out an NHL career for themselves, but a guy with a 30/70 shot at a decent 2nd line career is still a more valuable prospect than a guy with a 90% chance being 3rd pairing or a low end 3rd liner/high end 4th liner.

To me Howden is a good example of what Dahlbeck is/was. A guy who is really close to being a solid NHL player, but unlikely to ever go past their entry level position (3rd/4th line and 3rd pairing respectively).

 

[almostawake]

Ottawa's centers were 1. Spezza 2. Fisher 3. Vermette and I believe 4. Kelly.

So, your argument that Vermette played 2nd line and Ladd played 3rd line during their respective runs to the Cup is factually incorrect. Look up the ice-time distribution for yourself. And there wasn't one game in that 2007 Stanley Cup final where Vermette played more minutes than either Spezza or Fisher.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...e=3&sort=timeOnIce&aggregate=0&teamId=9&pos=C

As for the return, like I have said all along, I believe Ladd can return a better prospect than the Vermette package. If that prospect is Vrana, Crouse, etc.. then yes, the pick likely is not a 1st, maybe a 2nd or not even. I was spit balling when making those proposals but if you take a look I even have 2nd rounders in the package when I listed Vrana, Crouse, etc. I am listing in the ballpark of what I believe Ladd can fetch us via trade.

We will simply agree to disagree on Vermette vs. Ladd as a playoff rental, experience, etc.. as I value a guy with 2 cup wins and the experience that goes with it, combined with Ladd's career resume, over Vermette's. But that's just my own opinion.

Vermette (and Kelly) spent a good amount of time in the playoffs playing wing. But in any case Vermette averaged 16:19 of icetime during those playoffs, 5th among Sens forwards. Ladd never averaged more than 13 in any of the cup runs.

Regarding the package, find the last time a prospect the quality of Crouse or Vrana was traded for a rental at the deadline.

The reason prospects like that don't get traded is because teams simply don't have to part with them to get the deal done.

What is another team going to offer that puts the Panthers/Capitals in a position where the Jets can just take the other deal?

If the Caps offer a 1st and Bowey what is another team going to offer that forces them to go to Vrana?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Dahlbeck's in the NHL but his upside is very low. He's a 3rd pairing and PK guy but lacks the tools to be much more. And he's already 24 years old.

Is he useful? Certainly. But he's the kind of player you can probably find in UFA if you need one.

IMO Hawryluk, Matheson, Grimaldi, Petrovic, Brickley, McCoshen and Lammikko are all better prospects than Dahlbeck was when he was traded. Guys like Schmitsch, Malgin and Rau are more debatable.

Of course very few of these players will ever carve out an NHL career for themselves, but a guy with a 30/70 shot at a decent 2nd line career is still a more valuable prospect than a guy with a 90% chance being 3rd pairing or a low end 3rd liner/high end 4th liner.

To me Howden is a good example of what Dahlbeck is/was. A guy who is really close to being a solid NHL player, but unlikely to ever go past their entry level position (3rd/4th line and 3rd pairing respectively).

Hawryluk shows some potential. Matheson is a weak defense offensive defenseman who isn't scoring in the AHL. Grimaldi is a size of player who needs to score a lot to justify a position. He scores a little in the AHL. Not a lot. Not in the NHL. He is in D+5 and is nowhere near NHL ready. Petrovic is in the NHL, a bottom pair RHD. He would line up behind Postma. Ian McCoshen might be a prospect. Brickley is maybe about even with Dahlbeck but hasn't shown a lot. More of the same. None of them are anything to get excited about. What Florida has outside the NHL is Crouse & Hawryluk. I don't see any 30% chances of top6 there. TBH I don't see much chance of bottom 6 either. There is nothing there I would want.

 

[Guerzy]

Vermette (and Kelly) spent a good amount of time in the playoffs playing wing. But in any case Vermette averaged 16:19 of icetime during those playoffs, 5th among Sens forwards. Ladd never averaged more than 13 in any of the cup runs.

Regarding the package, find the last time a prospect the quality of Crouse or Vrana was traded for a rental at the deadline.

The reason prospects like that don't get traded is because teams simply don't have to part with them to get the deal done.

What is another team going to offer that puts the Panthers/Capitals in a position where the Jets can just take the other deal?

If the Caps offer a 1st and Bowey what is another team going to offer that forces them to go to Vrana?

You need to pick your arguments and facts and stick to them. In your post quoted above you state "Vermette played a good amount of wing in that playoff run" yet in the post prior to that when you replied to me you said he was a "main faceoff man", which makes him a center. You're arguments are flipping back and forth here.

I can't answer your question re; what is another team going to offer because we have no idea. I simply made some proposals that I personally think will be in the ballpark. You don't agree and that is okay.

We're going in circles here, so let's just agree to disagree.

 

[surixon]

Tinfoil hat Alert.

I have this sneaking suspicion (100% gut) that Postma might be in play as part of a "possible" package with Ladd. Felt like odd timing to get him on a conditioning stint unless it was to polish him up for trade? So now a team can get a bit of juice on the Ladd deal by bringing back a proven bottom pairing RHD man that would be an awesome PP2 low cost asset.

Your A prospect LHD plus a 1st for Ladd and Postma? Only works if the other team wanted Postma in the deal too.

I think he's on the market as well, but my suspicion is its more to do with Drouin. He went to the AHL around the same time the whole Drouin story broke and allegedly Tampa wants a young cost controlled defense man as part of the package.

 

[surixon]

Vermette (and Kelly) spent a good amount of time in the playoffs playing wing. But in any case Vermette averaged 16:19 of icetime during those playoffs, 5th among Sens forwards. Ladd never averaged more than 13 in any of the cup runs.

Regarding the package, find the last time a prospect the quality of Crouse or Vrana was traded for a rental at the deadline.

The reason prospects like that don't get traded is because teams simply don't have to part with them to get the deal done.

What is another team going to offer that puts the Panthers/Capitals in a position where the Jets can just take the other deal?

If the Caps offer a 1st and Bowey what is another team going to offer that forces them to go to Vrana?

As much as I agree that the chances of us getting an A prospect are slim, as has been pointed out to me Forsberg went at the deadline a few years ago and Duclair went last year. At the time I wouldn't necessarily have rated Duclair as an A prospect but he's delivering as one this year.

 

[almostawake]

You need to pick your arguments and facts and stick to them. In your post quoted above you state "Vermette played a good amount of wing in that playoff run" yet in the post prior to that when you replied to me you said he was a "main faceoff man", which makes him a center. You're arguments are flipping back and forth here.

I can't answer your question re; what is another team going to offer because we have no idea. I simply made some proposals that I personally think will be in the ballpark. You don't agree and that is okay.

We're going in circles here, so let's just agree to disagree.

Look at exactly what I wrote. I said he was a 2nd liner and the main faceoff man. Both statements are true. I never wrote that he was the 2nd line center. He played wing but took faceoffs. Like he did for a lot of the time he was in Ottawa.

Disagree is fine, but IMO proposals like this on the Jets board make it a worse place in the long run. People see stuff like this and when Ladd gets moved for whatever he goes for, people will be claiming the sky is falling.

There is data out there that allows us to make an educated guess at what the return may be on a rental like Ladd. It points to a 1st and a prospect. The quality of that prospect can go up and down based on a team's view of Ladd, but it probably looks like a guy who has been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round in the last two drafts and has performed decent since then.

 

[almostawake]

As much as I agree that the chances of us getting an A prospect are slim, as has been pointed out to me Forsberg went at the deadline a few years ago and Duclair went last year. At the time I wouldn't necessarily have rated Duclair as an A prospect but he's delivering as one this year.

Erat wasn't a rental. He had a year left to go on his contract.

Duclair, like you kind of said, wasn't necessarily an A level prospect. He was in a strange area, drafted in the 3rd round but over performed his way on to the roster. But not a guy with the draft pedigree of Crouse of Vrana.

 

[BigZ65]

You guys think Postma has trade value beyond 7th round pick?

Has he even dressed for a dozen games in that last 13 months?