Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 (Part VII)

[MardyBum]

Ladd and a mid round pick if needed for Chicago's 1st and Pokka is what I want.

 

[ecolad]

I tend to agree. I am holding out hope that the return on Ladd (if dealt) will surprise some (because it will be better than some anticipate). Players of Ladd's resume aren't dealt very often at all. Looking back even just to last years deadline as a guage..

Trade Deadline 2015

To Chi: Vermette
To Phx: 1st rd pick + Klas Dahlbeck

*Ladd easily returns a better package than this, if this is a comparable. 1st rd pick + much better prospect, in my opinion.

To LA: Sekera
To Car: 2015 or 2016 conditional 1st + Roland McKeown.

*This is a good comparable but obviously different positions. Ladd has more of a resume than Sekera in my own opinion when you consider he is a captain, a top line producing winger and boasts 2 Stanley Cups. And, I think he can get a bit better of a prospect than McKeown. This deal is very close, but spice it up a bit because Ladd carries the resume to do so, in my opinion.

I do think Ladd can return a 1st rd pick + quality prospect (recent former 1st rounder). A couple of examples in which I think we can get as a package for Ladd.


To LA: Ladd (we eat salary if we have to)
To Wpg: Kempe + 1st

To Wsh: Ladd
To Wpg: Vrana + 1st/2nd

To Chi: Ladd
To Wpg: Dano/Pokka + 1st

To Fla: Ladd
To Wpg: Crouse + 1st/2nd

To Mtl: Ladd
To Wpg: McCarron + 1st (perhaps conditional 2015/2016)


I may be completely off my rocker, but I think these are the types of deals Chevy will be gunning for and I think we may find a sucker. Teams so close to potentially winning a Stanley Cup may surprise in what they would pay for a player like Ladd, in my opinion. I think he'd be a pretty huge add for a cup contending team, any of the listed teams above, and I think they would pay the price of a 1st rd pick + higher end prospect to get him in the line-up and not in an opposing contenders line-up.

Hey, maybe I am way off here, could very well be the case. I am looking forward to how this plays out, though.

Some really good thinking here Guersy.

Interesting that , in putting out some package possibilities, you make no mention of Anaheim. There is the obvious "fit"(potential to help our LHD with a young, cost controlled player) but quite a bit of variability in terms of player possibilities(,Vatanen,Theodore,Montour.)

Would sure like to know you`re thoughts on a potential deal with the Ducks and especially what we might reallistically expect in return.

 

[folix]

I dont know, thats got to be pretty touchy, because it allows a team to essentially "tamper", what if they dont go through with the trade?

Perhaps its simply just a send us your opening offer to see what kind of term and money your looking for.

 

[Guerzy]

Some really good thinking here Guersy.

Interesting that , in putting out some package possibilities, you make no mention of Anaheim. There is the obvious "fit"(potential to help our LHD with a young, cost controlled player) but quite a bit of variability in terms of player possibilities(,Vatanen,Theodore,Montour.)

Would sure like to know you`re thoughts on a potential deal with the Ducks and especially what we might reallistically expect in return.

I do think Anaheim is a possibility. I'm just not all that sure what the pieces would be if I had to place a guess. They have a lot of pieces both in terms of prospects and younger NHL'ers (Silfverberg, Rakkel), but it's hard gauge what they may or may not do given how the season has gone for them..

Theodore seems to have taken himself out of the equation with his play this year. So perhaps we'd be looking at 1st + Larsson/Nattinen?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hey I am sure Murray and Chevy are sleeping sound so perhaps you and I can pull off the Ladd for Theodore trade and let them know in the morning.

Fell asleep. **** missed the chance.

 

[Grind]

Florida is just on the upswing I can't see them making a bad deal.

Anaheim very well could if Murray wanted to give Boudreau a better roster before deciding to **** can him this spring.

Chicago may bite the bullet but they don't have quite the pile of outside the nhl prospects.

Capitals may pay a big price just because it really looks like their year and they've never won.

I'd say Caps and Ducks are our best bets. I'm probably forgetting a few teams.

I'd have to say some of Those deals are a bit ambitious, and that the return is probably somewhere in the middle (LA 1st + Kempe seems closer to me then say Vrana +1 wsh first or Floriday 1st + crouse)


That being said, a team like florida is flush with young talent. These are the teams that eventually package these assets together to get some older more established pieces.

While Buffalo is still plodding along they horded 1st round picks for three years, but rather then wait for them all to pan out ended up flipping half of those prospects/picks for "now" players (ROR, Kane, Lehner, etc)

With florida's youth depth their pretty much in that prime spot where you can stomach the loss of a former 1st round pick/overachieving 2nd round pick to get some bonifide talent in your lineup immediately.


Also Tallon loves Ladd so there's that

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Boston would have to have balls to deal Eriksson when they are in a playoff spot?

That was being floated a couple of days ago. It would be unusual certainly but might make sense if you look at their team. I think they have over-achieved this year. On paper they have some pretty good Fs but are very weak at D. So swapping out 1 forward for an improvement in that D group might make more sense for them than what we usually assume it would for a PO team. I doubt they get an offer good enough for them to actually pull the trigger but it is worth a try with him being a pending UFA.

 

[sully1410]

I'd have to say some of Those deals are a bit ambitious, and that the return is probably somewhere in the middle (LA 1st + Kempe seems closer to me then say Vrana +1 wsh first or Floriday 1st + crouse)


That being said, a team like florida is flush with young talent. These are the teams that eventually package these assets together to get some older more established pieces.

While Buffalo is still plodding along they horded 1st round picks for three years, but rather then wait for them all to pan out ended up flipping half of those prospects/picks for "now" players (ROR, Kane, Lehner, etc)

With florida's youth depth their pretty much in that prime spot where you can stomach the loss of a former 1st round pick/overachieving 2nd round pick to get some bonifide talent in your lineup immediately.


Also Tallon loves Ladd so there's that

I think those kind of deals are what we should be expecting for a Ladd deal considering his contract, lack of NMC, style of play etc. )

 

[GoldenJet89]

Florida is the perfect fit IMO. They're playoff bound with an already young and talented roster, with plenty of good prospects up and coming. Outside of Washington, things seems pretty wide open in the east this year, a guy like Ladd def could help a young team in the postseason.

I think Florida would gladly pony up a good prospect(s) or pick package to get the guy they want... Is Ladd that guy though?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's a very good under the radar Norwegian prospect.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IMO your comparables are correct but you are going through some pretty fancy mental gymnastics to come up with a reason Ladd should return significantly more than either of those two.

Is there is a chance Ladd could return something along the lines of your proposals? Certainly, but I'd say less than a 5% chance. I'd say the chances of him returning about the same as Vermette/Sekera is around 60%. Less, I'd say 25%. Slightly more, around 10%.

For example, I'd say that if the Jets were able to get either of Crouse or Vrana straight up for Ladd those are probably already better packages than either of the Vermette or Sekera trades.

I don't see any mental gymnastics at all. Ladd has a much better resume than either of those players. Even in this year's diminished capacity he is at least their equal. At least.

It seems to me that a lot of people are letting their disappointment in Ladd this year have to great an influence on their opinions of his value. He is having an off year certainly and it is depressing his value but he is still a good player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Ladd can return a LHD prospect we would not have LD solved but we would be able to see the fix on the horizon with him and Morrissey.

That would leave a hole at LW in the top 6. We can see Connor filling that hole but maybe not for 2-3 years.

Moving Ladd adds 4.4 mil to our 11.5(ish) cap space. If some of the LWs currently heading for UFA are still available I think we should use some of that cap space to go after Boedker if Ari lets him get away or McGinn if he is there. Boedker is easily the better of those 2 but if we can't get him then McGinn could be a good placeholder until Connor is ready.

If not either of those 2 then there may be some other LW available in UFA.

 

[Grind]

I don't see any mental gymnastics at all. Ladd has a much better resume than either of those players. Even in this year's diminished capacity he is at least their equal. At least.

It seems to me that a lot of people are letting their disappointment in Ladd this year have to great an influence on their opinions of his value. He is having an off year certainly and it is depressing his value but he is still a good player.

I have deleted my response to this 3 times already bya ccident

OK,

Ladd's worth more then those players (lets say 1.3x) BUT conversely those deals were pretty much "best case scenario" returns for thsoe players.

because of that i don't necessarily think we're going to return that ful 30% increase in value.

I think if your talking about a guy like crouse (11th ova pick?) the pick attached is definitly a second, not a first.

For a guy like dano, i think you'd be hard pressed to get 1st in addition to him.

Even kempe or macarron, would a team actually give up essentially 2 1st round picks for ladd?

Kempe's as late of a first as you can get, but he's looked good, and I just have trouble reconciling that a team would part with that much.

These deals are essentially 2 1st round picks for a rental of Ladd...that's a pretty big jump from one 1st round pick and Dalwhoeverheis

That being said, I don't know what the difference in value is between a late first round pick, a mid first round prospect who hasn't made the roster yet but it is getting to that age, or a former 2nd-3rd round pick who is vastly exceeding expectations.

 

[Bob E]

If Chevy can get Crouse + a high pick (1st or 2nd) from Florida, for Ladd, he should be all over that, imo.

 

[almostawake]

I don't see any mental gymnastics at all. Ladd has a much better resume than either of those players. Even in this year's diminished capacity he is at least their equal. At least.

It seems to me that a lot of people are letting their disappointment in Ladd this year have to great an influence on their opinions of his value. He is having an off year certainly and it is depressing his value but he is still a good player.

IMO it is more a matter of under-rating the comparables. When they were traded:

Vermette was a 45 point center, one of the best PKers and face-off men in the league.

Sekera was a legit top pairing defenceman and a good PP point man. The season before he was traded he put up 44 points in 74 games.

Ladd is a 55-60 point left wing. He is an ok PKer, a good net front presence on the PP and is physical.

Vermette and Sekera play more important positions than Ladd. At the time he was traded, Vermette actually had more playoff experience than Ladd does now.

 

[Guerzy]

Give or take on the picks, 1st/2nd rounders, depending on which team we end up dealing with, where they are in the standings, etc.. I just think at the end of the day here we're going to get a better prospect out of a Ladd trade than many believe we are. You take a trip the main boards here and I personally think a lot of the proposals are laughable. I view Ladd as a pretty marquee rental given his captaincy, experience, 2 stanley cups and production as a LW (which is still top 30, 1st line btw...).. his resume to me just screams a chip that would return a pretty solid rental package.

Be it Kempe, Vrana, Dano, Pokka, Crouse, etc. I feel we are in a good position to get one of these types.

I could be wrong, though and perhaps I am overvaluing Ladd to contender. I just think a Chicago, Washington, LA, Florida, etc.. may pony up. And I hope they do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Florida is the perfect fit IMO. They're playoff bound with an already young and talented roster, with plenty of good prospects up and coming. Outside of Washington, things seems pretty wide open in the east this year, a guy like Ladd def could help a young team in the postseason.

I think Florida would gladly pony up a good prospect(s) or pick package to get the guy they want... Is Ladd that guy though?

Other than Crouse I don't see much in Florida's system that I would want. They have a lot of good young players but they are already playing important roles in the NHL. I doubt that they would part with Crouse but I'd be happy to get him.

I really want to target LHD and Florida doesn't have any good D prospects.

 

[Guerzy]

IMO it is more a matter of under-rating the comparables. When they were traded:

Vermette was a 45 point center, one of the best PKers and face-off men in the league.

Sekera was a legit top pairing defenceman and a good PP point man. The season before he was traded he put up 44 points in 74 games.

Ladd is a 55-60 point left wing. He is an ok PKer, a good net front presence on the PP and is physical.

Vermette and Sekera play more important positions than Ladd. At the time he was traded, Vermette actually had more playoff experience than Ladd does now.

Ironically you leave out Ladd's captaincy and 2 stanley cup rings and the fact that, even right now, Ladd is a top line/top 30, producing LW in the entire NHL today and over the last number of years... that means something to ya know.

I can't disagree with this post more. We will never agree, obviously.

 

[Guerzy]

Other than Crouse I don't see much in Florida's system that I would want. They have a lot of good young players but they are already playing important roles in the NHL. I doubt that they would part with Crouse but I'd be happy to get him.

I really want to target LHD and Florida doesn't have any good D prospects.

Agree mort. I feel the same way re; Florida.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have deleted my response to this 3 times already bya ccident

OK,

Ladd's worth more then those players (lets say 1.3x) BUT conversely those deals were pretty much "best case scenario" returns for thsoe players.

because of that i don't necessarily think we're going to return that ful 30% increase in value.

I think if your talking about a guy like crouse (11th ova pick?) the pick attached is definitly a second, not a first.

For a guy like dano, i think you'd be hard pressed to get 1st in addition to him.

Even kempe or macarron, would a team actually give up essentially 2 1st round picks for ladd?

Kempe's as late of a first as you can get, but he's looked good, and I just have trouble reconciling that a team would part with that much.

These deals are essentially 2 1st round picks for a rental of Ladd...that's a pretty big jump from one 1st round pick and Dalwhoeverheis

That being said, I don't know what the difference in value is between a late first round pick, a mid first round prospect who hasn't made the roster yet but it is getting to that age, or a former 2nd-3rd round pick who is vastly exceeding expectations.

Some good points. For a good prospect I take a lesser pick, 2nd, 3rd or none at all. I think we have to aim high though. Ladd is a premium among rental players but there could be some other pretty good LWs available at the TD too.

 

[JetsFan815]

Ladd also "just winz" in the playoffs. There are GMs who value that kinda stuff and might go the extra mile in trying to acquire him

 

[BigZ65]

I don't really view those guys as comparable as they both play different positons that are at a premium relative to a left winger. There's also a looming cap crunch that will have teams hesitant to give up guys who are going to be players for them soon.

Teams are also thinking about what they are buying. 20 games of Ladd in this season, and his value is greatly affected by his current level of play as there's no long-term thinking on the rental market.

If you get a first, that's all your getting. If you get a legit NHL prospect, that's all you're getting. Otherwise we're looking at a 2nd-3rd round pick (maybe conditional) and a middling prospect I believe.

 

[almostawake]

Ironically you leave out Ladd's captaincy and 2 stanley cup rings and the fact that, even right now, Ladd is a top line/top 30, producing LW in the entire NHL today and over the last number of years... that means something to ya know.

I can't disagree with this post more. We will never agree, obviously.

Sure, it certainly means something. But if you want to play that game, Vermette's contribution to the 07 Ottawa run was a much larger contribution than any of Ladd's runs to the finals.

Ladd's a good player. He will be sought after. But he isn't significantly better than what has, on average, been the best player available at the deadline the last ~5 years.

Frankly, if Eriksson is really on the block, Ladd probably won't even be the most sought after winger.

 

[Guerzy]

Sure, it certainly means something. But if you want to play that game, Vermette's contribution to the 07 Ottawa run was a much larger contribution than any of Ladd's runs to the finals.

Ladd's a good player. He will be sought after. But he isn't significantly better than what has, on average, been the best player available at the deadline the last ~5 years.

Frankly, if Eriksson is really on the block, Ladd probably won't even be the most sought after winger.

Play what game? adding the FACTS? You went on to add "facts" of other examples you listed yet conveniently (for you) left off KEY facts for Ladd. I'm not playing any game. I'm stating the facts you conveniently left out to better your argument.

So do you think Vermette's contributions of 2 goals and 3 assists in 20 of Ottawa's playoff games (which statistically are identical to Ladd's runs with Chicago...btw) in the run to the cup finals in 2007 outweigh the 2 Stanley Cup rings Ladd has? Ladd has reached the peak of the mountain in this sport 2 times, playoff bound teams covet that to a pretty high degree, especially when the player is still 30 and effective, and could be a big part in putting them over the top.

Players of Ladd's ilk and resume - captain, top producing LW, experience of 2 Stanley Cups trump Antoine Vermette every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Not even close, in my opinion, when we're talking about playoff bound teams/contenders stocking up. There is no comparison between the two and their respective careers/resumes --- in my opinion.

My original point in all of this was if Vermette can net Phoenix a 1st + meh prospect last year at the deadline, Ladd likely/should easily net Winnipeg a 1st + better prospect or pretty legit prospect + no picks or a 2nd, etc.

 

[almostawake]

Play what game? adding the FACTS? You went on to add "facts" of other examples yet conveniently (for you) left off KEY facts for Ladd. I'm not playing any game. I'm stating the facts you conveniently left out to better your argument.

So do you think Vermette's contributions of 2 goals and 3 assists in 20 of Ottawa's playoff games (which statistically are identical to Ladd's runs with Chicago...btw) in the run to the cup finals in 2007 outweigh the 2 Stanley Cup rings Ladd has? Ladd has reached the peak of the mountain in this sport 2 times, playoff bound teams covet that to a pretty high degree, especially when the player is still 30 and effective, and could be a big part in putting them over the top.

Players of Ladd's ilk and resume - captain, top producing LW, experience of 2 Stanley Cups trump Antoine Vermette every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Not even close, in my opinion, when we're talking about playoff bound teams/contenders stocking up. There is no comparison between the two and their respective careers/resumes --- in my opinion.

My original point in all of this was if Vermette can net Phoenix a 1st + meh prospect last year at the deadline, Ladd likely/should easily net Winnipeg a 1st + better prospect or pretty legit prospect + no picks or a 2nd, etc.

Playoff bound teams value 'intangibles' certainly. But a lot goes into intangible and I simply don't buy that Ladd's are so much better than Vermette's.

Ladd was a 3rd liner on a Stanley Cup winning team and a 4th liner on another. He was a 3rd liner on another team that made the finals.

Vermette was a 2nd liner, main PKer and main faceoff man for a team that made it to the finals. He was also the 1st line center and leading scorer for a Coyotes team that made it to the conference finals in 2012.

I just don't buy that Ladd's playoff experience exceeds Vermette's but such a degree that it puts Ladd on an entirely different level. And I don't buy that Ladd's higher level of production out weights Vermette's much higher level of PK and faceoff ability.

I think the problem is that you are phrasing what you are expecting as a 1st plus a better prospect than Dahlbeck.

The problem is, prospects like Crouse and Vrana are already a much much better package than a 1st plus a meh prospect.

Most teams would rather give up two late 1st rounders than part with one prospect on the level of Crouse/Vrana.

Florida alone probably has ten prospects that are significantly better than Dahlbeck but worse than Crouse.