Post-Game Talk: Jets 4- Yotes 3 in OT

[Gm0ney]

I think it's fair to refer to any numbers that aren't what the eye sees as analytics.

Where the coach and others get confused is by calling them "advanced"--some of them are very basic and undeniable, like 5v5 goals for and against, for a player and line. When there is a decent body of work showing a problem in a reliable, descriptive and predictive area, and the coach does not respond to that, it's a concern.

Also, educated fans that point this out aren't worse fans; most are trying to be constructive.

Here's a question--if you had a successful friend who was drinking or gambling too much, what would you say to her?

A) "You are very successful but I'm worried your personal habits are going to get you in trouble".
B) "You are perfect the way you are"
C) Say nothing--it's none of your business and this person is soooo smart in life otherwise...

Shout into the void like we do with the Jets?

More grist for the mill:

 

[RustyCat]

Late to the show here. But glad to see the Jets win.

Yotes forecheck and breakouts were very good last night. Jets had a heck out a time managing both of those. The only edge Jets had was more skill, and that includes Helle.

I am not going to hammer on the top line but I do have an observation about what the issue might be. The stuff that we were commending Chef on in the first half, specifically on the defensive side of play, are incomplete now. He is such a line driver that he needs to get back into that 200ft rhythm and with that so will his line. I don't think it is huge adjustments for him, just he appears to be going into old habits. Ultimately that lands on Bones et al so have that convo on where the team needs him to focus first on.

 

[Weezeric]

Shout into the void like we do with the Jets?

More grist for the mill:

It’s probably harder to publicly criticize the guys who have 3-4 points in the game, than the ones who have 1 point in the last 15…

 

[Buffdog]

So I spent 10 minutes scraping snow and ice off my car, drove to campus, opened up my laptop to this charming photograph and also a notice that tomorrow it will be -28C in Winnipeg.

And to think that I used to enjoy @kanadalainen .....

There's a weird thing that most Winnipeggers feel when they go away to somewhere warm in the winter (and some are even honest enough to admit it)...

We hope for the coldest possible weather I winnipeg while we're gone so that we feel like we're getting the most bang for our buck while we're away. Nothing worse than booking a holiday in Florida in February and they get a cold snap down there and it's +12 but at home a heat wave comes through and it's +5

That said, coming back from a warm getaway and stepping off the plane onto the jet way and its -30 is a crazy feeling too... "why the f*** do I live here again" goes through just about everyone's brain

 

[kanadalainen]

So I spent 10 minutes scraping snow and ice off my car, drove to campus, opened up my laptop to this charming photograph and also a notice that tomorrow it will be -28C in Winnipeg.

And to think that I used to enjoy @kanadalainen .....

Sorry, I will atone for my thoughtless transgressions. Perhaps an avalanche of rough ass poetry will turn the page, regaining lost affiliations.

 

[kanadalainen]

There's a weird thing that most Winnipeggers feel when they go away to somewhere warm in the winter (and some are even honest enough to admit it)...

We hope for the coldest possible weather I winnipeg while we're gone so that we feel like we're getting the most bang for our buck while we're away.

I'm not holier than thou, but I like the Peg. I choose to live here, despite options to the contrary.

The warm sun on a brief vacation is an unmitigated delight, I can't lie, but cold ass weather doesn't bother me much. I get outdoors often, and really enjoy winter sports.

 

[kanadalainen]

Sounds like you need more beers on the course

I think I've found my life coach.

 

[Buffdog]

I think I've found my life coach.

Life coach?

 

[Gm0ney]

It’s probably harder to publicly criticize the guys who have 3-4 points in the game, than the ones who have 1 point in the last 15…

...over the Jets' last 15 games at 5v5:

With Connor on the ice: 8 GF - 8 GA (xGF% 43.29)
With Ehlers on the ice: 7 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 58.25)
With Scheifele on the ice: 6 GF - 8 GA (xGF% 35.08)
With Lowry on the ice: 4 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 59.50)
With Perfetti on the ice: 3 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 53.29)

Connor's only played 14 of those 15 games and Scheifele's only played 9 of the 15, and they're both coming back from injuries, but they don't seem to be getting better. Over the last 5 games Connor and Scheifele are 4-6 with an xGF% of 25%. Ehlers is still positive in goals at 3-2 but his xGF% has slipped under 50% to 46.28. Small samples and all that...

 

[JetsFan815]

I think it's fair to refer to any numbers that aren't what the eye sees as analytics.

Where the coach and others get confused is by calling them "advanced"--some of them are very basic and undeniable, like 5v5 goals for and against, for a player and line. When there is a decent body of work showing a problem in a reliable, descriptive and predictive area, and the coach does not respond to that, it's a concern.

Also, educated fans that point this out aren't worse fans; most are trying to be constructive.

Here's a question--if you had a successful friend who was drinking or gambling too much, what would you say to her?

A) "You are very successful but I'm worried your personal habits are going to get you in trouble".
B) "You are perfect the way you are"
C) Say nothing--it's none of your business and this person is soooo smart in life otherwise...

Have you guys seen that show "House Of The Dragon"? In that show Princess Rhaenyra a blonde white woman is married to black man but miraculously all her children are lily white and dont look mixed race at all. Everyone in the kingdom can see the truth with their eyes, even her supporters know that her children are illegitimate but the King who has all the power denies it, refuses to see the obvious and explains it away as "nature works in mysterious ways" despite may begging him to see and acknowledge the obvious.

This situation with the top line is the same, we all know it, we all see it, even people here defending it know that that line does not look good (and are mainly defending it to "avoid negativity" rather than on the merits of the line) and if Bones were to miraculously break them apart they won't complain about it. Yet, the one man whose opinion actually matters refuses to see what his eyes tell him.

 

[ecolad]

"When they got hemmed in, it's not just the 3 forwards, it's 5 of them out there."

To some extent - Morrissey and DeMelo had a pretty bad game...but mostly because of the time they spent on the ice with the top line.

"...but you could tell that they were creating..."

Uh...I don't know what game Bones was watching, but CSV were creating f***-all at 5v5. Giving up a lot, but not really dangerous outside a couple of rushes. They were outshot 12-7, put up a paltry 1.19 xGF/60 while giving up a shitawful 4.55 xGA/60. Without CSV on the ice, the Jets other lines had 2.06 xGF/60 and 2.22 xGA/60. Not great, but an improvement. The top line gave up almost as much xGA in 16 minutes as the rest of the team 35 minutes of 5v5 TOI. And this is with home ice Bones line matching?

Also, Bones thought the team didn't give up much in Chicago the other night? It wasn't one of their better defensive performances...although it was quite a bit better than the Wild and Canucks games.

The way Bones describes what is occurring on the ice has become nothing more than comic relief. He made a judgment before this season even started that Connor/Scheif/Vilardi would be his top line, waited several months to get all three available to confirm by actual on ice play, and now seems simply unprepared to accept any evidence that points to such decision as being faulty. Some might call this "stubborn to a fault" but it surely is not a good harbinger of things going forward.

 

[Buffdog]

Have you guys seen that show "House Of The Dragon"? In that show Princess Rhaenyra a blonde white woman is married to black man but miraculously all her children are lily white and dont look mixed race at all. Everyone in the kingdom can see the truth with their eyes, even her supporters know that her children are illegitimate but the King who has all the power denies it, refuses to see the obvious and explains it away as "nature works in mysterious ways" despite may begging him to see and acknowledge the obvious.

This situation with the top line is the same, we all know it, we all see it, even people here defending it know that that line does not look good (and are mainly defending it to "avoid negativity" rather than on the merits of the line) and if Bones were to miraculously break them apart they won't complain about it. Yet, the one man whose opinion actually matters refuses to see what his eyes tell him.

 

[KingBogo]

But the biggest achievement is that they are good people.


I mean coaches definitely have their biases and are less risk adverse than fans. Like sending lowry’s line out with a minute left and being content going for ot than trying to win.

Guaranteeing a point and going for it in OT is definitely the right coaching call risk adverse or not. Arizona is no longer any real competition for a playoff spot so their point is meaningless. Gaining a single point in loses is advantageous in the position we are having banked a lot of points to date. And we have proven to be a very good 3 on 3 team over the last couple years with a goalie with a history of being very good against high danger chances. Playing for OT should be a no brainer for any competent coach in Bones situation.

 

[LowLefty]

...over the Jets' last 15 games at 5v5:

With Connor on the ice: 8 GF - 8 GA (xGF% 43.29)
With Ehlers on the ice: 7 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 58.25)
With Scheifele on the ice: 6 GF - 8 GA (xGF% 35.08)
With Lowry on the ice: 4 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 59.50)
With Perfetti on the ice: 3 GF - 5 GA (xGF% 53.29)

Connor's only played 14 of those 15 games and Scheifele's only played 9 of the 15, and they're both coming back from injuries, but they don't seem to be getting better. Over the last 5 games Connor and Scheifele are 4-6 with an xGF% of 25%. Ehlers is still positive in goals at 3-2 but his xGF% has slipped under 50% to 46.28. Small samples and all that...

It's not just KC - at least not lately.
The line has shifted to a more O game and that likely stems from the earlier scoring drought - now they need to get back to playing a better all around game. Bones will need to get on that - but he's not going to have that discussion with the media no matter how many times they ask the question.
He's also not going to start calling this out in the post games - we all seen how that went LY.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Guaranteeing a point and going for it in OT is definitely the right coaching call risk adverse or not. Arizona is no longer any real competition for a playoff spot so their point is meaningless. Gaining a single point in loses is advantageous in the position we are having banked a lot of points to date. And we have proven to be a very good 3 on 3 team over the last couple years with a goalie with a history of being very good against high danger chances. Playing for OT should be a no brainer for any competent coach in Bones situation.

But disappointing for this fan when you should going for the jugular of a weaker team.

 

[Jet]

Watching some of the other top teams lately, our process looks pretty good.

Only the Jets are not allowed to have play slumps

It's not just KC - at least not lately.
The line has shifted to a more O game and that likely stems from the earlier scoring drought - now they need to get back to playing a better all around game. Bone will need to get on that - but he's not going to have that discussion with the media no matter how many times they ask the question.
He's also not going to start calling this out in the post games - we all seen how that went LY.

Can we call him Bone from now on? That's way more badass

 

[KingBogo]

But disappointing for this fan when you should going for the jugular of a weaker team.

That’s why you wait to OT where the odds shift further in your favour. A better chance of winning after securing a point is still a better chance of winning.

 

[SUX2BU]

So I spent 10 minutes scraping snow and ice off my car, drove to campus, opened up my laptop to this charming photograph and also a notice that tomorrow it will be -28C in Winnipeg.

And to think that I used to enjoy @kanadalainen .....

Do you scraped it correctly or did you bonked yourself up side the head again?

 

[JetsUK]

A win is a win for sure. Good OT, great hands from GV, and PP looks sharper.

I do agree with some others that a string of ugly wins where your top line is getting pounded and the commitment to team D that got the Jets to this point in the standings seems to be ebbing away is worth noting. If you believe that D wins championships, and are facepalming at the D game the Jets have shown of late, then you're not alone.

The Jets are looking for a deep run and have spent a first to help achieve that. At the same time, it's a bend in the season, players are tired and beat-up, playing the Bowness system at a peak level is rigorous and exhausting, and the odd dip is understandable.

But fan concern is also understandable. We've been here before too many times: abandoning a working system to revert to the game where forwards cheat on D and rely on Helle and sharpshooting to stack up wins. Bones' remark that the D need to step up is fine, except that a D that has to do the work of flyby forwards shooting the zone is going to have fewer outlets to clear a zone and fewer transition options, will tire more quickly and make more mistakes.

It's good to see the first line scoring, and the PP starting to gain steam. But it's troubling to see how much they're giving up, and the loss of balance across lines and special teams that seemed at last to be making use of the Jets' much vaunted depth.

So yeah, winning beats losing. But winning well is better than winning ugly. This team has shown it can do both, and went 30+ games mostly winning well. Hopefully we see a return to that in good time before the POs start, because that's the only way we go deep, IMO.

Win beautifully, Jets. You know you can.

 

[scelaton]

Have you guys seen that show "House Of The Dragon"? In that show Princess Rhaenyra a blonde white woman is married to black man but miraculously all her children are lily white and dont look mixed race at all. Everyone in the kingdom can see the truth with their eyes, even her supporters know that her children are illegitimate ....
This situation with the top line is the same, we all know it, we all see it, even people here defending it know that that line does not look good (and are mainly defending it to "avoid negativity" rather than on the merits of the line) and if Bones were to miraculously break them apart they won't complain about it. Yet, the one man whose opinion actually matters refuses to see what his eyes tell him.

That is a fun analogy, but I do not believe the bolded is true. If you read the posts here, many people simply believe that you don't argue with success. Plus, goals-for are much easier (on the eye) to attribute to a line or player than goals-against.

In my line of work work, we expect a high degree of success every day or the consequences would be deadly. Even though we almost always "win", all our work is measured and we are expected to improve bad numbers, or explain why not. "Look how many wins we have" doesn't cut it in the real world ...but then maybe the NHL is more like House of the Dragon than a reality show after all...

 

[WolfHouse]

Only the Jets are not allowed to have play slumps


Can we call him Bone from now on? That's way more badass

El Bono.

 

[Gm0ney]

 

[ecolad]

It's not just KC - at least not lately.
The line has shifted to a more O game and that likely stems from the earlier scoring drought - now they need to get back to playing a better all around game. Bone will need to get on that - but he's not going to have that discussion with the media no matter how many times they ask the question.
He's also not going to start calling this out in the post games - we all seen how that went

You are right - but it is very much the DUO of Scheif/Connor that are predisposed to shifting away from the demanding/disciplined earlier game style to what they are trying to do of recent. And it will be challenging to get them to again buy in to an approach which demands continuous effort.

The big unknown here really is how much this weighs on Vilardi - whose 5v5 production just continues to stagnate despite his obvious skills. I keep imagining that he could contribute so much more if he were not tasked to try elevate Connor/Scheif into a true out-scoring line (perhaps an inacheivable task for any RW) but instead were given some linemates who better fit into his playstyle. I think the team would benefit overall.

 

[Inanna]

Do you scraped it correctly or did you bonked yourself up side the head again?

Wow, do you remember every stupid thing I've done and then shared with you?

I brushed a light layer of snow off the window, then scraped the ice underneath, all without hitting myself with any implements nor skidding on the icy patch behind the car. Got to campus safely, negotiated my first cup of coffee without spilling anything, and tackled today's edits with enthusiasm and grace.

It was an okay Monday until I discovered @kanadalainen's photos from Florida and, while grumbling about that, discovered a large, light stain on the leggings that I thought were clean when I pulled them on.

Now I'm wasting one of my afternoon breaks by revealing just how boring my life really is.

El Bono.

No estoy sorprendida...

 

[LowLefty]

You are right - but it is very much the DUO of Scheif/Connor that are predisposed to shifting away from the demanding/disciplined earlier game style to what they are trying to do of recent. And it will be challenging to get them to again buy in to an approach which demands continuous effort.

The big unknown here really is how much this weighs on Vilardi - whose 5v5 production just continues to stagnate despite his obvious skills. I keep imagining that he could contribute so much more if he were not tasked to try elevate Connor/Scheif into a true out-scoring line (perhaps an inacheivable task for any RW) but instead were given some linemates who better fit into his playstyle. I think the team would benefit overall.

I think Bones is very much aware of what is taking place - but I can see him taking a different approach to dealing with it - he'll do it behind the scenes.
Meanwhile, the press will keep pressing - but Bones is not going to vent to the media this time around. I'm less concerned about what he says in front of a mic and will take most of it with a grain of salt. I'll give him credit for being a vet coach that learned the hard way (LY) that spouting off will get you nowhere with this team - and I agree.

Vilardi reminds me of Nino - he'll stick to the plan and his comments will be all about his game and what he can do to support the team - the guys a pro.