Post-Game Talk: Jets 4- Yotes 3 in OT

[WolfHouse]

kc-scheifele-iafallo weren't exactly lighting the world on fire to start the year, hovering around even but;
the lowry line was producing (11 GF first 22 gp)
the namestnikov line was producing

now, CSV has been hovering around even in GF vs GA similarly to CSI but
the lowry line has not been producing (which may really be argued as the 2nd line)
the other 2nd line has been hit or miss (usually miss)

honestly i feel like the 2nd line had a better rate of chances or GF w/ namestnikov on it w/ either perfetti, iafallo or ehlers.

the 4th line in both instances really just doing cardio out there.

Did Names demotion disrupt the system more than anything else?

 

[LowLefty]

kc-scheifele-iafallo weren't exactly lighting the world on fire to start the year, hovering around even but;
the lowry line was producing (11 GF first 22 gp)
the namestnikov line was producing

now, CSV has been hovering around even in GF vs GA similarly to CSI but
the lowry line has not been producing (which may really be argued as the 2nd line)
the other 2nd line has been hit or miss (usually miss)

honestly i feel like the 2nd line had a better rate of chances or GF w/ namestnikov on it w/ either perfetti, iafallo or ehlers.

the 4th line in both instances really just doing cardio out there.

The problem with looking at past success is that it was based in part, on the game the team was playing at the time -
If they all reverted back to the same 200 ft game style, the lines could be just as successful now based on their new configurations.

 

[Jets 31]

I love Neo's game but he easily had his worst game of the season last night. He'll get it back though I'm sure.

 

[Gm0ney]

OK, nobody is disputing any of this. Personally, my issue is that if you replace Connor with ehlers on the top line, what does that do to the second line?

Connor and Schief are a saw-off with other teams in terms of actual goals at even strength. If you care to, why not run what happens to Connor on the second line when Ehlers is bumped up?

It would probably be tough to find data on that this year, but IIRC he had a great stretches with PLD which shows that Bones isn't completely adverse to separating him from schief, as long as the chemistry and the matchups allow for it

I think the fundamental disagreement I'm having with posters surrounds the necessity of having a dominant top line. I think the org is looking to win with depth (multpiple lines winning matchups instead of just the 1st), structure and strong goaltending. Winning special teams battles would be a bonus

	TOI 5v5	GF/60	GA/60	xGF/60	xGA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Connor-Scheifele	1127:40	2.82	2.93	2.76	3.00	53	55	-2
Connor-PLD	658:01	3.37	2.01	3.14	2.65	37	22	+15

Connor had about 80 minutes over the last 2 seasons without either Scheifele or PLD as his center.

Maybe Scheifele is the real problem...or the sum of Connor and Scheifele is less than the parts?

I think Connor might do really well on Lowry's line. That line generates some excellent scoring chances but suffers a bit from a lack of finish. Lowry and Niederreiter are probably capable of carrying Connor defensively...and Connor makes that line wildly dangerous. Even just swapping Connor and Ehlers and seeing how Connor and Monahan gel.

Of course, we'll never know what might be if Connor and Scheifele are permanently glued together...

 

[ecolad]

I'd take it one step further... its not KFC or Ehlers that is the problem - its that Scheif has changed his game... he's back to taking long shifts, stick checking and gliding off the ice

Then you combine that with CSV getting 20 mins of icetime - mid-six is around 13-14 mins and 4th line 8 mins... we are back to Paul Maurice hockey.

Going back... we had full buy-in from every line and I think that influence the top line more than the other way around... now the top line is free styling - and its trickled down the roster

If one guy isn't playing the system, its tricky - if two guys on your top line are not playing it, it crashes the entire system because everyone is playing catchup when they get on the ice

Lots of wisdom in this - but around here, it is likely to go over as well as a screen-door on a submarine. Remember- we winning baby...nothing else to be said.

 

[WolfHouse]

Lots of wisdom in this - but around here, it is likely to go over as well as a screen-door on a submarine. Remember- we winning baby...nothing else to be said.

Part of HFBoard's charm...

 

[Snowboy]

Did Names demotion disrupt the system more than anything else?

He was an energy source.

 

[KingBogo]

pretty sure this is a well-known hf poster...

What I find interesting about this graph, is there no combination where Scheifele has been outscored in actual goals. Even 81-55-13 is actually in plus territory in actual goals scored.

 

[KingBogo]

OK, nobody is disputing any of this. Personally, my issue is that if you replace Connor with ehlers on the top line, what does that do to the second line?

Connor and Schief are a saw-off with other teams in terms of actual goals at even strength. If you care to, why not run what happens to Connor on the second line when Ehlers is bumped up?

It would probably be tough to find data on that this year, but IIRC he had a great stretches with PLD which shows that Bones isn't completely adverse to separating him from schief, as long as the chemistry and the matchups allow for it

I think the fundamental disagreement I'm having with posters surrounds the necessity of having a dominant top line. I think the org is looking to win with depth (multpiple lines winning matchups instead of just the 1st), structure and strong goaltending. Winning special teams battles would be a bonus

I've learned over the years that most people only want a balanced lineup in theory, once a coach actually does it there is no end to the complaining that player X, Y or Z isn't being utilized properly.

 

[Guardian17]

 

[Jets 31]

Part of HFBoard's charm...

2nd in the entire NHL in winning percentage is damn charming and we are at the end of February.

 

[SUX2BU]

If you like copious amounts of coffee grounds in your coffee

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

The way Bones describes what is occurring on the ice has become nothing more than comic relief. He made a judgment before this season even started that Connor/Scheif/Vilardi would be his top line, waited several months to get all three available to confirm by actual on ice play, and now seems simply unprepared to accept any evidence that points to such decision as being faulty. Some might call this "stubborn to a fault" but it surely is not a good harbinger of things going forward.

Right. He has failed his team to first place in the division.

 

[KingBogo]

Right. He has failed his team to first place in the division.

With all this doom and gloom over the Jets play, the fact that all the top teams in the West are currently struggling seems to go unnoticed. The Jets actually have the best record over the last 10 games of Western teams in the top 3 playoff positions in each division at 6-4.

Dallas 5-3-2
Canucks 4-5-1
LV 4-5-1
Oilers 4-5-1
Avs 3-5-2

It is not uncommon for top teams to drift for awhile at this point in a long season.

 

[WolfHouse]

He was an energy source.

Its more that he played the system and did his job... Monahan wins more face-offs but he's not as locked in with the system - I dont know the answer

2nd in the entire NHL in winning percentage is damn charming and we are at the end of February.

Winning the Stanley Cup is more charming.

 

[Buffdog]

	TOI 5v5	GF/60	GA/60	xGF/60	xGA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Connor-Scheifele	1127:40	2.82	2.93	2.76	3.00	53	55	-2
Connor-PLD	658:01	3.37	2.01	3.14	2.65	37	22	+15

Connor had about 80 minutes over the last 2 seasons without either Scheifele or PLD as his center.

Maybe Scheifele is the real problem...or the sum of Connor and Scheifele is less than the parts?

I think Connor might do really well on Lowry's line. That line generates some excellent scoring chances but suffers a bit from a lack of finish. Lowry and Niederreiter are probably capable of carrying Connor defensively...and Connor makes that line wildly dangerous. Even just swapping Connor and Ehlers and seeing how Connor and Monahan gel.

Of course, we'll never know what might be if Connor and Scheifele are permanently glued together...

Thanks for doing that

Very interesting

With all this doom and gloom over the Jets play, the fact that all the top teams in the West are currently struggling seems to go unnoticed. The Jets actually have the best record over the last 10 games of Western teams in the top 3 playoff positions in each division at 6-4.

Dallas 5-3-2
Canucks 4-5-1
LV 4-5-1
Oilers 4-5-1
Avs 3-5-2

It is not uncommon for top teams to drift for awhile at this point in a long season.

Yeah, but what do their top lines' advanced stats look like? That's the real thing that matters

 

[Jets 31]

Its more that he played the system and did his job... Monahan wins more face-offs but he's not as locked in with the system - I dont know the answer


Winning the Stanley Cup is more charming.

You are damn right, winning the Stanley cup would be f***ing fantastic.

 

[KingBogo]

Thanks for doing that

Very interesting


Yeah, but what do their top lines' advanced stats look like? That's the real thing that matters

Just jumping off this comment I've been spending the last 1/2 hour or so digging through line combination numbers. Without a doubt the combination of Scheifele and Ehlers dominate, no matter who else they are with, out scoring the opposition 19-4, 5 on 5 this season, in a relatively low amount of minutes. But it does come at a cost of a lack of production on the other lines when they are together. Not counting 62-17-22 who have their own thing going.

Looking at Connor over the last couple seasons he seems to need a top center to produce, while Ehlers is able to produce well with the next tier of talent. Ironically our only truly effective 4th line was Axel-Toninato-Barron, 2 of which are now playing on the Moose.

 

[RabidOne]

Why to show that he can’t produce after the NHL tightened up after the Christmas breask. What exactly has Perfetan shown before at 2C that warranted another look, too small and too slow!

He certainly might be too slow, but there are legit star Nhl Centers that are listed as weighing less than him: Petterson, Hughes, Point.

 

[Gm0ney]

With all this doom and gloom over the Jets play, the fact that all the top teams in the West are currently struggling seems to go unnoticed. The Jets actually have the best record over the last 10 games of Western teams in the top 3 playoff positions in each division at 6-4.

Dallas 5-3-2
Canucks 4-5-1
LV 4-5-1
Oilers 4-5-1
Avs 3-5-2

It is not uncommon for top teams to drift for awhile at this point in a long season.

You can explain most of this pretty easily...

The erstwhile high-flying Oilers have had a not-in-Pavelec's-worst-nightmare team SV% of .853 over their last 10 games. It's amazing they've only lost 5 of those games! I have a feeling someone's going to be trading a couple of 1st rounders to Calgary for Markstrom...

The Canucks are right behind the Oilers with the 31st worst SV% in the NHL over their last 10 games with an .864.

Avs rocking an .888 SV% while also shooting 8.00% - 4th worst SH% over the last 10 games.

Vegas has the 2nd worst CF% and 6th worst xGF% plus a sub-.900 SV% to dampen their winning ways.

And Dallas? Well, they seem to be doing pretty well, statistically - SH%, SV%, xGF% all look good. Then again, they only have 3 actual losses in their last 10, and probably just as easily could've been 7-3 if things had bounced their way in OT.

 

[Jets 31]

I say that if the Jets win the Cup all of HF Jets has a big party .

 

[DRW204]

The problem with looking at past success is that it was based in part, on the game the team was playing at the time -
If they all reverted back to the same 200 ft game style, the lines could be just as successful now based on their new configurations.

so what has fundamentally changed from lowry/his line's 200 ft game in relation to scoring vs now? what specifics in scheifele's and his line's game has changed from them to basically breaking even in the GF vs GA department as opposed to him out scoring the opposition pretty handedly?

What I find interesting about this graph, is there no combination where Scheifele has been outscored in actual goals. Even 81-55-13 is actually in plus territory in actual goals scored.

when you have connor hellebuyck back-stopping you, you really have to be devoid of offense or bleed chances against at v high rates to be a minus player at 5v5.

 

[Flair Hay]

What I find interesting about this graph, is there no combination where Scheifele has been outscored in actual goals. Even 81-55-13 is actually in plus territory in actual goals scored.

That is true. This Ehlers Scheifele vs Connor Scheifele trend is looking very strong.

It's quite healthy not to get caught up in the mob out for Connor right now haha. That said, it's going to be very hard to ignore with such contrasting results.

The difference between a top 5 and a bottom 5 top line is a big difference. I'm sure that difference would shrink over time, but as it is right now... that's a significant difference on the most played line on the team.

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

You don't think they know? That plus 1000 things we don't?

There's a reason NHL teams don't start their searches for new head coaches by scouring all anonymous internet hockey forums for candidates

Sorry, I forgot the sarcasm font or emoje.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Shout into the void like we do with the Jets?

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