Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Hawks 2 in OT

[Jet]

And then we'd be saying - If only our board battlers could score

TBH, I'm seeing a lot of what you are - but he's usually better at spinning off coverage and winning battles without the physical.
I think he's struggling a bit with his possession game and I'm not sure why - usually he's a big part of the cycle via his skating, stick and quickness.
He's never been a board battle type of player - like most smaller, skilled players.

What he does pretty effectively is use his stick while avoiding getting physically engaged. Probably a good plan since he's slight, and probably helps him stay healthy

 

[LowLefty]

Yes. I agree he has been better in the past with his agility, but for quite a while he has been taken to the boards and relieved of the puck. He may be being targeted now that other teams are seeing him as an easy way to get possession in either end.

Some smaller skilled players are better at it. Ehlers for instance or even pionk on defense. Either way and for whatever reason, I think it’s dragging down 55 and 13. Having only 2/3 of your line able to possess the puck, means the line as a whole can’t hold possession, because if I see it then other teams are definitely seeing it and adjusting accordingly.

I really hate to come across as being so down on KC, but he hasn’t been great in quite a while and I’m just being honest. (And yes I’m happy he scored for us last night when we needed it).

I agree that he is being targeted -
I responded to anther poster earlier regarding the attention he gets - and he's getting a lot more now than he did earlier in his career.
Whether or not we agree, he is one of the top 2 or 3 players on this team that apposing teams will zero in on - because if you don't, he'll make you pay as he has through his career. And IMO, if you were to ask teams who they need to be focusing on (taking away space), he might be at the top of the list because of his production.
These small elite guys are not physical - so it only makes sense that teams will try to be physical with them - either to intimidate or to push them off their game - and that is impacting KC's game.

Another thing that we need to consider (and rarely do) is the impact of the attention he gets - sure, it impacts his game, but it also opens up space for his line mates. KC is not seeing those lanes like he used to - remember when he only scored goals? Now he's dishing off to his line mates more and the assists are piling up. It's no secret that players who produce, get a lot of attention - so they need to adapt their game.

As for Ehlers who is better at it, I disagree - he's no better at board battles than KC - but he's rarely is in them and when he is, he's ineffective (from a physical standpoint - just like KC). He generates off the rush. Pionk is a Dman who plays (or tries to play) a more physical game - but he's no offensive wizard - that's why I said small, highly skilled players.

KC is now in a place where he needs to build on his game - he won't see the same opportunities and he'll need to adapt. I'm hoping he can learn to drive more offense off the rush - but that hasn't been his bread / butter in the past but it could be. He can skate - he just need to learn to drive play and he has the skills to do that (if not the experience).

It's also interesting that when you throw the stats up, there is no consideration for game event stuff like this.

 

[JetsFan815]

 

[surixon]

The team needs to sort out its top line. It bleed again in terms of chances. They were once again overplayed despite a poor effort. It's going to cost the team at some point.

Perfetti still snake bit but play is continuing improve.

I like the idea of trying to create 4 lines deep but they need another piece if they want to legitimately do that. I like Cole better with Name but they need a finisher on that line.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[Romang67]

Stop me if you've heard me say this before, but why do we keep trying to put Scheifele with Connor? Just don't. It's literally that simple.

 

[gojetsgo]

Stop me if you've heard me say this before, but why do we keep trying to put Scheifele with Connor? Just don't. It's literally that simple.

they've been wanting to try the combo of scheifele/connor/vilardi and probably don't want to put our 2 best line drivers on the same line, what they should be doing the next little while is trying different combos and seeing what is the best fit

 

[Atoyot]

I have pretty strong opinions on "advanced stats" in hockey also

The biggest problem is the structured chaotic nature of the game. After the Moneyball stuff started in baseball, nerds everywhere who never played hockey (or who never played high level) started trying to do the same thing for this sport

The problem is that baseball, at its core, is an individual sport played as a team. It's batter vs pitcher. Sure, things like the defense behind the pitcher and the strength of rhe batters in the line uparound the guy at the plate might have a small effect, bit not like hockey. Also, players stand in pre determined static positions and travel on pre determined paths.


Hockey is largely chaotic. Sure, players play within systems but there is a huge variability. When a guy. Gets the puck, he doesn't have 20 seconds to decode what to do. He can fling the puck in any direction he wishes, and the other 9 skaters have to react accordingly. A batter knows exactly where the ball is and where it will be delivered from, and when

So in baseball, you can take a players batting average and move him from teak to team and it will stay rather consistent. In other words, baseball stats tend to be predictive more than hockey stats.

To be honest, xGF (for example) has come out to be fairly good (but not perfect) at describing the game that just happened. It most often matches the eye test pretty closely

BUT the mistake many make is using that stat as some kind of proof that a player hols certain attributes and will continue to do so in the future.

TL/DR advanced hockey stats have some value as descriptors, but little as predictors. Too many uncontrollable variables by the nature of the sport

Predictive value is measured over large samples and is repeatable. You don't get to say something isn't predictive because of your feelings on it, it's measurable. The problem is that we have loud people on both ends of the spectrum that don't have a good understanding of what they're trying to discuss. If your statement is that analytics have no value, you're on one end of that spectrum. If your belief is that it's the be all end all, you're on the other.

For the record, analytics have been in hockey and has been used by every team well before Moneyball came out.

 

[DRW204]

Stop me if you've heard me say this before, but why do we keep trying to put Scheifele with Connor? Just don't. It's literally that simple.

connor-scheifele-ehlers i thought was solid. but i can see the rationale of ehlers championing his own line (as seen last night). connor really should be able to drive a top-6 line on his own though, and you don't lose much (if at all) w/ ehlers-scheifele-x (ie: Vilardi). KC most productive season did come primarily away from scheifele as well but does not seem like that's in the cards this season.

 

[Buffdog]

Predictive value is measured over large samples and is repeatable. You don't get to say something isn't predictive because of your feelings on it, it's measurable. The problem is that we have loud people on both ends of the spectrum that don't have a good understanding of what they're trying to discuss. If your statement is that analytics have no value, you're on one end of that spectrum. If your belief is that it's the be all end all, you're on the other.

For the record, analytics have been in hockey and has been used by every team well before Moneyball came out.

Kyle Connors stats over his career... where's the predictive value there? Which year do you look at the past results and it allows you to make an accurate prediction about the following year?

 

[JetsUK]

they've been wanting to try the combo of scheifele/connor/vilardi and probably don't want to put our 2 best line drivers on the same line, what they should be doing the next little while is trying different combos and seeing what is the best fit

Agree that trying different combos for that top line is a must for the team to go far in the playoffs, where they'll have to have to win their matchups or at least break even to stay in games.

KFC was excellent with PLD and (I think) Perfetti for stretches last year. I think he'd be a good fit with Monahan and a winger who can carry and also join in with a cycle game. Nino can do those things and drive some offence and I don't see much difference between him and Iafallo on the other end of the puck.

I get that Bones is loyal to his 3rd line, who have been excellent overall. But if swapping Albert for Nino doesn't hurt the 3rd and helps the 2nd with a more balanced Monahan / KC / NN unit and Ehlers can rediscover his mojo with 55/ 13 then the team is stronger for it.

I like Cole and Names together, and Barron brings speed, tenacity and some good scoring instincts to that role, and he can Kupari can swap in and out if need be.

Good to see Schmidt back in. That needed to happen.

 

[bustamente]

I don't know what Chevy has cooking in the trade department but going forward we need 2 scoring lines, Ehlers and Mony night work but that means you have to kep KFC and Scheifele together Bones needs to stop putting KFC and Scheifele out on the ice trying to close out a game

 

[surixon]

Agree that trying different combos for that top line is a must for the team to go far in the playoffs, where they'll have to have to win their matchups or at least break even to stay in games.

KFC was excellent with PLD and (I think) Perfetti for stretches last year. I think he'd be a good fit with Monahan and a winger who can carry and also join in with a cycle game. Nino can do those things and drive some offence and I don't see much difference between him and Iafallo on the other end of the puck.

I get that Bones is loyal to his 3rd line, who have been excellent overall. But if swapping Albert for Nino doesn't hurt the 3rd and helps the 2nd with a more balanced Monahan / KC / NN unit and Ehlers can rediscover his mojo with 55/ 13 then the team is stronger for it.

I like Cole and Names together, and Barron brings speed, tenacity and some good scoring instincts to that role, and he can Kupari can swap in and out if need be.

Good to see Schmidt back in. That needed to happen.

Cole Name and Iafallo were good together earlier this year. I'd like to see them try that again. Put Barron with Lowry and move Nino to play with Monohan and swap KC and Fly. I think that gives you 4 good lines that are balanced.

 

[JetsUK]

Cole Name and Iafallo were good together earlier this year. I'd like to see them try that again. Put Barron with Lowry and move Nino to play with Monohan and swap KC and Fly. I think that gives you 4 good lines that are balanced.

Yep, definitely. I can see Bones preferring Al over Barron on that 3rd because trusted vetness but they play similar games and Barron is a great forechecker and would easily be first man in on that 3rd line.

 

[bustamente]

Cole Name and Iafallo were good together earlier this year. I'd like to see them try that again. Put Barron with Lowry and move Nino to play with Monohan and swap KC and Fly. I think that gives you 4 good lines that are balanced.

I this both Vladdy and Iafallo will help Perfetti get back to his game, both are positionally smart and are defensively acute allowing Perfetti to create in the O zone.

 

[JetsFan815]

Kyle Connors stats over his career... where's the predictive value there? Which year do you look at the past results and it allows you to make an accurate prediction about the following year?

View attachment 824682

His career CF% and xGF aligns pretty closely with his GF%.

On a season to season level in almost every season these numbers tend to be within 1% of his final GF%. This season he is a 49% Corsi and 47% xG in these metrics and low and behold magically his GF% so far is also 50%. Pretty safe bet his final GF% is gonna be in this range, possibly on the minus side... best case scenario barely breaking even.

 

[Atoyot]

Kyle Connors stats over his career... where's the predictive value there? Which year do you look at the past results and it allows you to make an accurate prediction about the following year?

View attachment 824682

Few questions:
1. What is your definition of predictive value?
2. Why did you use that chart as an example to support your argument?
3. If a model, by your understanding, had good predictive value, what would that chart look like?

 

[Buffdog]

Few questions:
1. What is your definition of predictive value?
2. Why did you use that chart as an example to support your argument?
3. If a model, by your understanding, had good predictive value, what would that chart look like?

1. Past results allowing for an accurate future prediction
2. It doesn't allow for that
3. Batting average in baseball

Take a look at Wade Bogg's carreer batting aaverage. If asked "what do you think wade will bat next season?", you can confidently answer .330 +/-

There may be an outlier season here and there, but it's a consistent, accurate representation of his skill as a batter

If iI asked you to predict any of the stats on the Connor pic I posted, your answer *should* start with "well, it depends"... which kinda proves my point

His career CF% and xGF aligns pretty closely with his GF%.

View attachment 824687

On a season to season level in almost every season these numbers tend to be within 1% of his final GF%. This season he is a 49% Corsi and 47% xG in these metrics and low and behold magically his GF% so far is also 50%. Pretty safe bet his final GF% is gonna be in this range, possibly on the minus side... best case scenario barely breaking even.

Yet his carreer xGF ranges from 27% to 59%?

 

[Atoyot]

1. Past results allowing for an accurate future prediction
2. It doesn't allow for that
3. Batting average in baseball

Take a look at Wade Bogg's carreer batting aaverage. If asked "what do you think wade will bat next season?", you can confidently answer .330 +/-

There may be an outlier season here and there, but it's a consistent, accurate representation of his skill as a batter

If iI asked you to predict any of the stats on the Connor pic I posted, your answer *should* start with "well, it depends"... which kinda proves my point

2. What in that chart shows a lack of predictive value based on your definition of it.

3. If the model used had good predictive value, what would that chart that you posted look like?

Yet his carreer xGF ranges from 27% to 59%?

K this is where I was going anyways. You don't have a good understanding of what you're talking about. xGF is accumulative, not a percentage. The difference is because he played fewer games.

EDIT: that probably comes across as mean, but it's the same on the other side of the spectrum. It's the Dunning Kruger effect. People talking confidently about things that they have a surface level understanding of at best. Good enough for politics.

 

[robertocarlos]

Jets were home and in bed by 2:30 am.

 

[DRW204]

Jets were home and in bed by 2:30 am.

Dang, I was just loading up on carbs at that time.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Two different things here. A) Kyle Connor is not 100% so for it doesn't end the argument Ehlers or KC, but, Ehlers is definitely better than a less than 100% KC.

Second of all, I can see why Schief might not want to play with Ehlers. Ehlers on his 2 goals he did everything himself. I can imagine a #1 centre like Schief would want to play with players who will use him not just skate down make something themselves take a quick shot and then have to go back to play D. Even though Schief has shown more commitment to play D we can surmize it's not his favorit thing in the world.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I agree that he is being targeted -
I responded to anther poster earlier regarding the attention he gets - and he's getting a lot more now than he did earlier in his career.
Whether or not we agree, he is one of the top 2 or 3 players on this team that apposing teams will zero in on - because if you don't, he'll make you pay as he has through his career. And IMO, if you were to ask teams who they need to be focusing on (taking away space), he might be at the top of the list because of his production.
These small elite guys are not physical - so it only makes sense that teams will try to be physical with them - either to intimidate or to push them off their game - and that is impacting KC's game.

Another thing that we need to consider (and rarely do) is the impact of the attention he gets - sure, it impacts his game, but it also opens up space for his line mates. KC is not seeing those lanes like he used to - remember when he only scored goals? Now he's dishing off to his line mates more and the assists are piling up. It's no secret that players who produce, get a lot of attention - so they need to adapt their game.

As for Ehlers who is better at it, I disagree - he's no better at board battles than KC - but he's rarely is in them and when he is, he's ineffective (from a physical standpoint - just like KC). He generates off the rush. Pionk is a Dman who plays (or tries to play) a more physical game - but he's no offensive wizard - that's why I said small, highly skilled players.

KC is now in a place where he needs to build on his game - he won't see the same opportunities and he'll need to adapt. I'm hoping he can learn to drive more offense off the rush - but that hasn't been his bread / butter in the past but it could be. He can skate - he just need to learn to drive play and he has the skills to do that (if not the experience).

It's also interesting that when you throw the stats up, there is no consideration for game event stuff like this.

I agree with all of this ….. except I still think Ehlers is better at board work.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I would love to see Baron with 55 and 13, just to see……

I would juggle the rest so that KC ends up on the second line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Helly was insane tonight. Although it's almost expected

Ho hum, just another day at the office.