Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Hawks 2 in OT

[MardyBum]

Two different things here. A) Kyle Connor is not 100% so for it doesn't end the argument Ehlers or KC, but, Ehlers is definitely better than a less than 100% KC.

Second of all, I can see why Schief might not want to play with Ehlers. Ehlers on his 2 goals he did everything himself. I can imagine a #1 centre like Schief would want to play with players who will use him not just skate down make something themselves take a quick shot and then have to go back to play D. Even though Schief has shown more commitment to play D we can surmize it's not his favorit thing in the world.

This isn't a Connor or Ehlers thing for most people.

Scheifele and Connor do not work well 5v5, if you judge working well as outscoring the lines you play against. One of the very few exceptions is when Ehlers is there.

Ehlers and Scheifele without Connor perform much better than Connor and Scheifele without Ehlers. Year over year over year.

If you're going make the argument that you need Ehlers on a different line for "balance", it doesn't make much sense to brag about your jab when every cross you throw gets you a fist in the face in response.

There's no point of Ehlers driving a second line if the first line that gets more ice time and harder matchups gets caved in.

I wouldn't even mind Perfetti Scheif Vilardi at this point if it splits Scheif and Connor. They have too much time together over the last few years where they at best squeak out equal. That's not what you want from your 1C who is supposed to go against Mackinnons and McDavids in the playoffs.

I liked Connor with PLD (when he cared about hockey) more than when he was with Scheifele.

Also he's re-signed for 7 years. Who cares what Scheifele prefers. Suck it up if he wants to win a cup .

Edit : I'll also agree Connor doesnt look 100%. He's sucking at board battles where he's usually good at using his elite skating to open up space for himself. Maybe he's still a little wary about the knee?

 

[jetsforever]

Glad Ehlers is back on the score sheet and always good to get the 2 points

 

[blues10]

Jets were home and in bed by 2:30 am.

I remember watching Jets 1.0 play on the road Vs Pittsburgh on the big screen when I was at the Diamond Club one night. Led by Captain Tkachuk the Jets were home and in the bar for last call.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree. Jets need to dig deeper.

De er nødt til at grave dybere

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

it's weird to see a team #1 in the west this late into the season that have posters that have 95% of their posts being negative... something really doesn't add up, unless you set unrealistic expectations or just are happy when you are unhappy

Not at all - the negative posts reflect the most recent game in this case. Sometimes a string of recent games.

It was not long ago Jets were 1st overall, by both points and winning %.

How long do you think they will last in the PO if they play like they did last night?

 

[gojetsgo]

Not at all - the negative posts reflect the most recent game in this case. Sometimes a string of recent games.

It was not long ago Jets were 1st overall, by both points and winning %.

How long do you think they will last in the PO if they play like they did last night?

do you actually watch other teams? and these negative posts have been all season long despite the record... not just this reason streak of games acting like this just started because of the recent string of games is just not true at all

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pssst... here's a hint: these stats are trash.

Any time I see x in front of something I know the data is dirty.

You can't make a proper analysis of anything when the environment is impure and you start introducing subjectivity into the equation.

This remains the main issue with advanced stats. I think the turning point for metrics like this is when generative ai is introduced. Then we can see the compilation and analysis of thousands of bits of data in a completely unbiased and standardized way.

Until they take the human element and wild variances out of the metrics they will have modest value at best.

I think that's why, though teams do look at these measures, they are not used with the same weight as fans do.

^

 

[Buffdog]

2. What in that chart shows a lack of predictive value based on your definition of it.

3. If the model used had good predictive value, what would that chart that you posted look like?


K this is where I was going anyways. You don't have a good understanding of what you're talking about. xGF is accumulative, not a percentage. The difference is because he played fewer games.

EDIT: that probably comes across as mean, but it's the same on the other side of the spectrum. It's the Dunning Kruger effect. People talking confidently about things that they have a surface level understanding of at best. Good enough for politics.

K, fair enough on the xGF

But to say that I only have a surface level understanding of stats is a little hypocritical, if anything. Let's take a look at his absolute results, and you can decide if you think your assessment of him is reasonable...

He's played 602 minutes and 43 seconds at even strength this season. With your beloved (and cumulative) xGF and xGA, let's look at actual results

That TOI means he's played 804 shifts (assuming average shift length of 45 seconds). He's been on the ice for 27.41 xGF, which is one xGF every 29 shifts

For xGA, he's been on for 31.65, which an expected goal agaisnt every every 25 shifts

When you look at the absolute difference of 4.25, it means that he gives up one more xGA than xGF every 189 shifts

Just to be clear, that is the data that you're using to make your argument that he's poor defensively

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

do you actually watch other teams? and these negative posts have been all season long despite the record... not just this reason streak of games acting like this just started because of the recent string of games is just not true at all

There are always some negative posts. Why do you let that bother you so much?

The vast majority of the posts in the 1st half of the season were very positive, even those about some of the more frequently criticized players, like Stan for instance.

Did you like their play last night? Do you think they did not earn some negativity last night, playing the worst team in the league?

 

[LowLefty]

There are always some negative posts. Why do you let that bother you so much?

The vast majority of the posts in the 1st half of the season were very positive, even those about some of the more frequently criticized players, like Stan for instance.

Did you like their play last night? Do you think they did not earn some negativity last night, playing the worst team in the league?

I must have missed the mostly positive posting for Stan - or there simply wasn't very many - it's one or the other

 

[JetsFan815]

This isn't a Connor or Ehlers thing for most people.

Scheifele and Connor do not work well 5v5, if you judge working well as outscoring the lines you play against. One of the very few exceptions is when Ehlers is there.

Ehlers and Scheifele without Connor perform much better than Connor and Scheifele without Ehlers. Year over year over year.

If you're going make the argument that you need Ehlers on a different line for "balance", it doesn't make much sense to brag about your jab when every cross you throw gets you a fist in the face in response.

There's no point of Ehlers driving a second line if the first line that gets more ice time and harder matchups gets caved in.

I wouldn't even mind Perfetti Scheif Vilardi at this point if it splits Scheif and Connor. They have too much time together over the last few years where they at best squeak out equal. That's not what you want from your 1C who is supposed to go against Mackinnons and McDavids in the playoffs.

I liked Connor with PLD (when he cared about hockey) more than when he was with Scheifele.

Also he's re-signed for 7 years. Who cares what Scheifele prefers. Suck it up if he wants to win a cup .

Edit : I'll also agree Connor doesnt look 100%. He's sucking at board battles where he's usually good at using his elite skating to open up space for himself. Maybe he's still a little wary about the knee?

Exactly it doesn't have to be Ehlers heck I'll even take Appleton on that top line to split up 55-81... anything to stop that sinking feeling that I am about to see scoring chances for the other team every other shift they step on the ice.

 

[raideralex99]

I must have missed the mostly positive posting for Stan - or there simply wasn't very many - it's one or the other

From the day the Jets moved up in the draft to take Stanley the negative comments started after someone posted his numbers.
Stanley never had a chance. Its like the 49ers Purdy ... the experts got it wrong in the draft so they continue to bash him to make themselves look good.

 

[gojetsgo]

There are always some negative posts. Why do you let that bother you so much?

The vast majority of the posts in the 1st half of the season were very positive, even those about some of the more frequently criticized players, like Stan for instance.

Did you like their play last night? Do you think they did not earn some negativity last night, playing the worst team in the league?

lol I'm calling out the posters who only make negative posts, there are a lot of posters here that criticize the team play but don't do it after every shift, every game, every trade, every line up decision, I don't call them out...

did I like there game last night? not really, how ever paying attention to other teams give you perspective that it's not just the jets going thru the motions, dallas lost 4 in a row and their last game they had 12 shots on goal down 4-1 to ottawa with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd, vancouver just lost 4 and got called out by their coach for their effort, avs lost 4 in a row, boston was getting booed off the ice last week...

I was listening to the jeff marek show last week and him and friedman were talking about 2 other contending teams not playing well and he mentioned how after the all star break and before the trade deadline are the dog days of the year where teams well in the playoffs are just trying to get the games over with but the good teams still manage to win them

 

[MardyBum]

Brock Purdy and Logan Stanley. So alike.

 

[LowLefty]

This isn't a Connor or Ehlers thing for most people.

Scheifele and Connor do not work well 5v5, if you judge working well as outscoring the lines you play against. One of the very few exceptions is when Ehlers is there.

Ehlers and Scheifele without Connor perform much better than Connor and Scheifele without Ehlers. Year over year over year.

If you're going make the argument that you need Ehlers on a different line for "balance", it doesn't make much sense to brag about your jab when every cross you throw gets you a fist in the face in response.

There's no point of Ehlers driving a second line if the first line that gets more ice time and harder matchups gets caved in.

I wouldn't even mind Perfetti Scheif Vilardi at this point if it splits Scheif and Connor. They have too much time together over the last few years where they at best squeak out equal. That's not what you want from your 1C who is supposed to go against Mackinnons and McDavids in the playoffs.

I liked Connor with PLD (when he cared about hockey) more than when he was with Scheifele.

Also he's re-signed for 7 years. Who cares what Scheifele prefers. Suck it up if he wants to win a cup .

Edit : I'll also agree Connor doesnt look 100%. He's sucking at board battles where he's usually good at using his elite skating to open up space for himself. Maybe he's still a little wary about the knee?

It won't surprise me if they make this move - and if they do, I'll be interested in seeing how the top line does with Ehlers again - especially at this time in the schedule. Things are getting tougher out there - there are no easy games.

In order for Ehlers to stick (assuming this ever happens), he'll need to play a more up and down game, less risk in his Nzone game (passing), he'll need to be aware of his linemates, and most importantly, he'll need to be consistent in the approach (which he did in the softer half of the schedule).

Whenever I see Ehlers get a shot with 55, it usually starts well - lots of creative game style, tons of passing, and good production. But if they slip, I usually see Elhers try to take on a different approach - less passing, more east/west navigation, less playmaking / more solo efforts, and lots of shots from everywhere. In other words, he tries to do too much on his own - and you know that will drive 55 crazy and likely has in the past.

 

[raideralex99]

Brock Purdy and Logan Stanley. So alike.

No not alike ... Stanley was drafted in the first round and Purdy was the last player drafted.
The player bashing it is alike.

 

[sipowicz]

I remember watching Jets 1.0 play on the road Vs Pittsburgh on the big screen when I was at the Diamond Club one night. Led by Captain Tkachuk the Jets were home and in the bar for last call.

The Diamond Club.....that brings back mammaries!

Wise Guys, The Pal, Strswberries and Grapes on Main some of my old haunts...

 

[SLAYER]

No not alike ... Stanley was drafted in the first round and Purdy was the last player drafted.
The player bashing it is alike.

Well one plays like an all-star, and it's not the guy drafted in the first round.

 

[Cotton Eye Joe]

lol I'm calling out the posters who only make negative posts, there are a lot of posters here that criticize the team play but don't do it after every shift, every game, every trade, every line up decision, I don't call them out...

did I like there game last night? not really, how ever paying attention to other teams give you perspective that it's not just the jets going thru the motions, dallas lost 4 in a row and their last game they had 12 shots on goal down 4-1 to ottawa with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd, vancouver just lost 4 and got called out by their coach for their effort, avs lost 4 in a row, boston was getting booed off the ice last week...

I was listening to the jeff marek show last week and him and friedman were talking about 2 other contending teams not playing well and he mentioned how after the all star break and before the trade deadline are the dog days of the year where teams well in the playoffs are just trying to get the games over with but the good teams still manage to win them

Kind of ironic that you are calling out and criticizing posters who call out and criticize the Jets too much.
I'd say let everyone voice their opinion whether in agreement or not.

 

[gojetsgo]

Kind of ironic that you are calling out and criticizing posters who call out and criticize the Jets too much.
I'd say let everyone voice their opinion whether in agreement or not.

calling out that posters that do only nothing but criticize the jets, kinda ironic that you are calling me out for voicing my opinion on that, am I not allowed to voice it whether you are in agreement or not?

 

[Potrzebie]

Kind of ironic that you are calling out and criticizing posters who call out and criticize the Jets too much.
I'd say let everyone voice their opinion whether in agreement or not.

And you're calling out and criticizing posters who call out and criticize posters who call out and criticize the Jets too much. Where does it end?

 

[Atoyot]

K, fair enough on the xGF

But to say that I only have a surface level understanding of stats is a little hypocritical, if anything. Let's take a look at his absolute results, and you can decide if you think your assessment of him is reasonable...

He's played 602 minutes and 43 seconds at even strength this season. With your beloved (and cumulative) xGF and xGA, let's look at actual results

That TOI means he's played 804 shifts (assuming average shift length of 45 seconds). He's been on the ice for 27.41 xGF, which is one xGF every 29 shifts

For xGA, he's been on for 31.65, which an expected goal agaisnt every every 25 shifts

When you look at the absolute difference of 4.25, it means that he gives up one more xGA than xGF every 189 shifts

Just to be clear, that is the data that you're using to make your argument that he's poor defensively

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I don't understand what you mean by hypocritical here, can you elaborate?

I never argued that he was bad defensively. I argued about analytics. There is a group that thinks they're entirely useless, and a group that think they're the only thing that matters. Both these groups have a surface level understanding of analytics at best. People who think any issue is that black and white tend to have a surface level understanding of what they're talking about.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't understand what you mean by hypocritical here, can you elaborate?

I never argued that he was bad defensively. I argued about analytics. There is a group that thinks they're entirely useless, and a group that think they're the only thing that matters. Both these groups have a surface level understanding of analytics at best. People who think any issue is that black and white tend to have a surface level understanding of what they're talking about.

There are posters on here that will trot out a stat or two to try to prove Connor doesn't deserve to be deployed in the line up where he is. I guess I just lumped you in with them, and I apologize if I mischarachterized your position

A for stats, I see them as a tool. Both an eye test (subjective) and analytical (objective) observation should go into drawing a conclusion in my opinion. In a perfect world, the eye test matches the stats... but if they don't match, deeper investigation is warranted

 

[Cotton Eye Joe]

calling out that posters that do only nothing but criticize the jets, kinda ironic that you are calling me out for voicing my opinion on that, am I not allowed to voice it whether you are in agreement or not?

lol

And you're calling out and criticizing posters who call out and criticize posters who call out and criticize the Jets too much. Where does it end?

lol

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't understand what you mean by hypocritical here, can you elaborate?

I never argued that he was bad defensively. I argued about analytics. There is a group that thinks they're entirely useless, and a group that think they're the only thing that matters. Both these groups have a surface level understanding of analytics at best. People who think any issue is that black and white tend to have a surface level understanding of what they're talking about.

I think they are useful in the right hands, I feel people use them as though they are 1000% fact and always correct, I also think that since teams invest hundreds of thousand's of dollars a year on analytics that their tracking is far superior then the models the public see's