Blue Jays Discussion: Jays host wild-card game vs BAL....Stroman Starts

[Loosie]

that's amazing. Grillied Meatballs. They should add that permanently to their menu.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Right, so I'm saying we don't have near enough data to do anything but throw out wild guesses. Stroman's had a period of bad BABIP luck that we could expect to normalize. There are other pitchers with lower IFFB% that aren't chronic FIP overachievers, and infield flies have been found to be recorded improperly by statscast (so it may not be a trustworthy stat).

But my point is we don't have enough data on Stroman - those IFFBs could go up a couple % points in another 300 innings pretty easily, or they could stay the same. It's just too soon.

Fairpoint on the first bolded part. As for the 2nd bolded part of your comment, it goes both ways, Stroman's GB rate can easily go down next season or his hard contact rate might see an increase now that the other teams have scouted his stuff properly, so I guess its to early to call Stroman a top 20 pitcher in the AL then.

 

[Loosie]

For Canadians, say goodbye to Buck and Tabby. While the major league playoffs air on Sportsnet, it’s the TBS broadcast that will be simulcast on the network. That means no Buck Martinez or Pat Tabler. Instead, the TBS crew consists of Ernie Johnson doing play-by-play with analysts Ron Darling and Cal Ripken Jr

I knew it wouldn't be Buck and Tabby but Cal Ripken Jr calling a game involving the O's? Ugh. (Ugh will be retracted if he's actually unbaised, but I don't think he can be)

 

[lebdafor norris]

eh, so far stro's only had a blip where his era was out of whack with his fip. you expect blips. but that's not near enough to call him a fip underachiever yet.

as for his batted ball mix it's near identical to Sanchez', and Sanchez has been a big fip overachiever so far.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/infield-flies-fip-and-war/

Really interesting article that explains how IFF explains the discrepancy between a pitcher's FIP and ERA. As for Sanchez, he does possess a pretty high LOB% so far in his career and usually it takes years for this things to stabilize.

EDIT: I didn't meant that IFF is the only variable that explains the discrepancy between FIP and ERA, but it does have an effect.

 

[kfernandes29]

Kijiji

No Thanks. I said reliable.

 

[kfernandes29]

You're just asking to get ripped off.

Actually, I'm not. I asked for something reliable. lol

 

[Eyedea]

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1202374283/mlb-tonight-breaks-down-the-al-wc-starting-matchup

"The Orioles catch the baseball"

What the **** are you saying Harold? Their entire outfield is in the negative in terms of UZR and DRS!

 

[TheBeastCoast]

So the lineup is out. Saunders DH with Bautista in RF.

 

[Deebo]

Actually, I'm not. I asked for something reliable. lol

Have you had problems with StubHub? I've found them to be very reliable.

 

[Morgs]

The fact Carrera is playing makes me want to die.

 

[theaub]

Who is the better option?

 

[Mitchy]

sigh.

I hope my heart can take tonight's game.

 

[kfernandes29]

Have you had problems with StubHub? I've found them to be very reliable.

Nope, just a little overpriced right now. Trying to compare prices lol

 

[Morgs]

Who is the better option?

Throw Smoak in LF.

 

[Loosie]

The fact Carrera is playing makes me want to die.

With the way he's been playing the last few weeks I'm ok with him being in the lineup.

 

[Eyedea]

 

[Loosie]

Throw Smoak in LF.

You forgot the right? Please tell me you forgot the

 

[Morgs]

You forgot the right? Please tell me you forgot the

I thought it was implied.

Really hope Carrera makes me eat my words.

 

[TimeZone]

Throw Smoak in LF.

Is this some sort of sick joke? Even if it was, it's not funny. Just picturing that in my mind right now, may lead to me being diagnosed with PTSD down the line.

 

[Morgs]

Is this some sort of sick joke? Even if it was, it's not funny. Just picturing that in my mind right now, may lead to be being diagnosed with PTSD down the line.

Now I'm picturing him looking like Cola out there.

 

[Greek_physique]

The fact Carrera is playing makes me want to die.

Dude has done great things down the stretch. Not sure why you're upset with him being a number 9 hitter.

Saunders need to play because its the Orioles.

 

[The Nemesis]

This made me LOL...
If you can't remember Brad Fullmer and his 17 inch pythons enjoy the trip!

I more remember the giant wad of chaw or bubblegum or whatever that he always had wedged in his cheek.

 

[ShaneFalco]

No complaints with CarreraHe's been good lately and better than Upton

 

[Gargyn]

Sucks with Benoit out, that bullpen looks horrible! Hopefully Stroman can shut some people up including myself. I just don't think he will get it done but I'm more a pessimist when it comes to cheering for my teams. I understand with Estrada and Sanchez pitching recently as well as Happ, this was a tough choice between him and Liriano. I think neither is optimal. Maybe Osuna can go 7 innings!

 

[Mach85]

Fairpoint on the first bolded part. As for the 2nd bolded part of your comment, it goes both ways, Stroman's GB rate can easily go down next season or his hard contact rate might see an increase now that the other teams have scouted his stuff properly, so I guess its to early to call Stroman a top 20 pitcher in the AL then.

Except things like IFFB% and FIP are known to take exceptionally long periods of time to normalize, whereas true talent level can be more reliably discerned through the period of time Stroman has spent pitching. You're right it's not certain he's a top 20 starter of course, but it's much more certain than any speculation regarding him being a FIP overachiever, based on what's known about sample sizes and how long it takes these constructs to normalize.