Value of: Jacob Trouba (Mod warning OP)

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wabagee

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Nov 24, 2014
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What other 25+ y/o d-men are on their 3rd deal or later that have a 50 point season under their belt in which they played all situations hockey as a #1 defender that are making less than 8m?

I would have preferred to keep him at 7 or less, but he’d easily have gotten 8 if he hit the market.



Right now, it doesn’t look great but if he didn’t have the year he had with circumstances that didn’t exactly help him, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

You’re clearly not over him spurning Winnipeg and that’s fine, I won’t hold that against you. With that said, I think your expectations of the market are unrealistic and a bit naive.
Winnipeg got a cheap top 4 and a really good prospect plus cap. Trouba was out the the door and a terrible crybaby.
 

Kupo

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Based on where his woman is now, I see that FL, TB and of course DET are possibles.
I'd like those hypotheticals fully vetted.

Whether or not there is enough middle ground consensus to get anything that looks like a deal remains to be seen, but let's see how intellectually honest everyone can be.

TB can’t afford him.

Detroit has started a massive rebuild and have enough RHD prospects in their pipeline. Trouba’s not going to waive to go there. Detroit probably has minimal interest in him as well.

That leaves FLA. They have Ekblad at 7.5. Stralman at 5.5M. Gudas and Nutivaara for a combined cap hit at 5.2M. 18M+ invested at RD.
 
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FerrisRox

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No, I don’t think it’s odd to say they were not competitive.

So only three teams in the entire Western Conference won more games than the Winnipeg Jets, but they aren't even a competitive team?

If this is really your opinion, then I absolutely don't need to read a single other thing you have to say on the sport of hockey.
 

bernmeister

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Jun 11, 2010
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TB can’t afford him.

Detroit has started a massive rebuild and have enough RHD prospects in their pipeline. Trouba’s not going to waive to go there. Detroit probably has minimal interest in him as well.

That leaves FLA. They have Ekblad at 7.5. Stralman at 5.5M. Gudas and Nutivaara for a combined cap hit at 5.2M. 18M+ invested at RD.

That's an accurate and fair assessment of the status quo. However, going beyond the vacuum, not impossible to see things changing.

FL Panthers would surprise me, but if they had a net gain, I could see it.
Bolts likewise can't afford, but they are thin on the right if Hedman goes down, so again, if net result overall is beneficial, I see a fit.

I think Red Wings less inclined to go there due to the exp dr, but that is also subject to specifics.

The common element in all of these is not a single deal, Trouba to team X for futures, but a couple of packages.

I could see Rangers on the periphery as a middleman broker w/two or more larger deals facilitating cap.

An example, AND THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE, HAVEN'T CRUNCHED IT FULLY,
I could see something like...

Sanderson + cap dumps Anisimov + Gubranson + Nilsson to Rangers

Chytil + Deangelo + Geo to Sens

Stamkos to Sens

Trouba to Bolts

there are more parts, but this is the gist of it

OTT get young pivot it needs + good RD complement for Chabot available day 1. Gets a cheaper, better net minder.

Bolts move better but older, more injured Stamkos for younger big RD

Rangers take on 3 1 yr stopgap deadwood pieces, but again, that's 1 yr and they get a stud lefty who is likely a yr away, but long term would be great add w/K'AM on left as we add Nils L and Schneider on the right.

I see other deals I don't want to elaborate here and now but we move Strome + Buch mostly for futures. The Buch deal allows to unload Smith + Johnson.

--------
something like dat
 

NYRKing

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Mar 12, 2008
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So only three teams in the entire Western Conference won more games than the Winnipeg Jets, but they aren't even a competitive team?

If this is really your opinion, then I absolutely don't need to read a single other thing you have to say on the sport of hockey.
As a neutral fan your going to blacklist me from talking about the sport of hockey on a hockey board because my opinion is a team that missed the playoffs is not a good team?

I got a solution. Since NYR finished with the same amount of wins in less games than wpg, then by your metrics NYR is a good team and competitive, right? :nod:
 

jay from jersey

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Jan 30, 2008
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All of that is fine, I’m not arguing any of it, as what I think of Pionk is neither here nor there as that’s not my point.

My point is that the expectations of the market are a little unrealistic on here.
Before the trade Chevy was offering him 6 to 6.5 on a long term deal and that was after the whole holdout trade me, I’ll come back and shut up and play and pretend everything’s cool incident. So what does that tell us jets fans? By your own GM’s admission that’s what he thought Trouba was worth. Every ranger fan in the thread said he’s overpaid by 1 to1.5 mill but we would all still make the trade because we needed A large bodied minute eating D with a mean streak. Especially in our division which is very physical isles,Flyers,caps, devs etc. Pionk can not do the things trouba can. At the the time of the trade we didn’t know how Fox would fair in his first year as well. For what the rangers gave up to get trouba it was a no brainer for Gorton. We all expect trouba to get better once he settles in the system, living in the city, and most importantly gets a stable partner. He will be fine. But the bottom line is almost every ranger fan on he says he’s overpaid by 1 to 1.5 mill or so. Rangers have a ton coming off the cap next year and the flat cap isn’t going to last forever. It will go up again and I expect trouba’s deal to look better as other lesser D men are going to be signed to similar deals in the next 2-3 years. Apparently a sentiment your own GM agrees with
 

Kupo

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not impossible to see things changing.

This can be said about 99% of players in the league though. Should we create a value of thread for every player in the league that lasts about 2 months?

FL Panthers would surprise me, but if they had a net gain, I could see it.

This too, can be said for 99% of the teams in the league, Bern. Fact is the Panthers Are paying more collectively for their RHD depth then we are. They’re not going to try and increase that amount for a player that has a NMC.

Bolts likewise can't afford, but they are thin on the right if Hedman goes down, so again, if net result overall is beneficial, I see a fit.

Hedman plays LD, for starters. And the very last thing TB needs, is a 8M cap hit added on their blue line. It’s a 100% no-go here.

I think Red Wings less inclined to go there due to the exp dr, but that is also subject to specifics.

Literally, every Red Wings fan has been very vocal about their lack of desire to add Trouba. For starters, he doesn’t fit their timeline. Trouba also won’t waive for Detroit. They’re potentially going to be a very, very dangerous team In about 3 years. Yzerman isn’t moving a top prospect like Seider for Trouba no matter how badly you want him.


Sanderson + cap dumps Anisimov + Gubranson + Nilsson to Rangers

Chytil + Deangelo + Geo to Sens

Bro — this is HORRENDOUS for us. Even with some minor adjustments. :facepalm:

Stamkos to Sens

He’s not waiving for Ottawa. And Ottawa won’t even bother trying to acquire him.

Trouba to Bolts

They can’t realistically afford him, even if they move Stammer.

OTT get young pivot it needs + good RD complement for Chabot available day 1. Gets a cheaper, better net minder.

Who’s the #1 compliment for Chabot..? I hope it’s not ADA. Hes not a #1, nor would his play style even compliment Chabot.

Bern, I respect you trying to find something out of nothing, but there’s nothing here. Trouba’s not getting moved. Not yet anyway.

You’re also recommending we trade Trouba, ADA, Chytil, Buch, Strome, and Geo in 1 year.

This is excessive, even for you Bern! :laugh:
 
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Mrfenn92

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TB can’t afford him.

Detroit has started a massive rebuild and have enough RHD prospects in their pipeline. Trouba’s not going to waive to go there. Detroit probably has minimal interest in him as well.

That leaves FLA. They have Ekblad at 7.5. Stralman at 5.5M. Gudas and Nutivaara for a combined cap hit at 5.2M. 18M+ invested at RD.

Not going to stop him from posting it over and over though
 

Guffman

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Apr 7, 2016
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You sound so defensive... Crushing my flimsy logic? About what? You mean my opinion about pionk? He’s not that good defensively and he won’t be a mainstay on wpg on the top 4 if they want to compete. For this reason I don’t see the trade as lopsided, especially since its one year into Trouba’s tenure with us as a 26 yr.

As for the cap, you want to commit the right dollars to the right players. I’m not that concerned about Trouba’s contract for what he brings. Sure that can change, but as of now no issue at all.

Actually, can you imagine if Trouba wanted to stay with wpg? Take pionks monies and Stastny 6,500,000 and Trouba slides right back with Morrissey to form that great combo!

I know I know, flimsy logic. No Trouba means cap space, which means Paul Stastny.

Supposed third pairing quality guys do not generate 11th ranked points in the entire league. I am not sure why you want to continue to ignore his performance last year and fixate on what he did for NYR. Considering Trouba had a bad year with you too, maybe it has to do with terrible defensive systems/coaching.

In terms of salary cap, the Jets had to shed players last year for salary cap purposes (which is why our defence was gutted), so the Jets couldn’t afford Trouba’s contract if they were so inclined to excessively overpay.

Stastny is a 1 year rental plug for our 2C. If we can magically get Trouba and delete Stastny and Pionk, who plays 2C for us and how much salary cap dollars does that cost?

Yeah, flimsy logic yet again on your part. You don’t think your goofy proposals all the way through. But it does make me laugh so please continue!
 
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Guffman

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What other 25+ y/o d-men are on their 3rd deal or later that have a 50 point season under their belt in which they played all situations hockey as a #1 defender that are making less than 8m?

I would have preferred to keep him at 7 or less, but he’d easily have gotten 8 if he hit the market.

Six years in the league, with one 50 point season, the other five seasons average 26 points. Yep, clearly worth a top 10 contract for a defenceman in the entire league.

If he hit the open UFA market (where teams overpay to fix blunders in their roster), could he have achieved that contract? Probably, but as with most UFA contracts, they tend to be terrible value, just like this one is.

Here is what I stated at the time: Confirmed Signing with Link: - [NYR] Jacob Trouba signs with the Rangers (7 years, $8M AAV)

Trouba was the third best d-man of the Jets behind Morrissey and Big Buff, and yet he now has the fifth highest AAV of all defencemen in the entire league?!

And many posters think this is a “good deal”?

LMAO!

Look, I get that a youngish UFA RHD like Trouba would get that kind of cash next year if he was on the open market. It’s really a luxury tax to teams that didn’t develop their own young RHD and have to toss a bunch of cap at players like this.

Trouba is versatile and a good player to have (even though he has big brain farts) but you hurt your team paying that kind of bread because of your failed development of your own young players.
 

TGWL

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Trouba for Larkin?

Larkin is worth probably five times what an $8 million Trouba is worth. Maybe this is a joke and I'm missing it.
I'm pretty sure it was a joke. But based on the poser, value evaluation is not a strong quality.
 

GaryPoppins

A broken clock is right twice in a day
Sep 10, 2016
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So only three teams in the entire Western Conference won more games than the Winnipeg Jets, but they aren't even a competitive team?

If this is really your opinion, then I absolutely don't need to read a single other thing you have to say on the sport of hockey.

as a Winnipeg fan who has watched 70+ games each year since their return... They weren’t a competitive team last year. What you saw was a team that relied on being bailed out by their vexing level goaltending and scoring themselves out of trouble.

Poor PK, poor PP, really poor 5v5 results... this team sucked last year and the mini 4 game winning streak pre-Covid made people think the turnaround was coming was too small of a sample size.

love the Jets, I’m a die hard.. but they friggin sucked last year and possibly could again this year.
 

bernmeister

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Jun 11, 2010
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Trouba has no value. With his cap hit... we would have to pay someone to take him off our hands.

Disagree.
He has value, should be calculated thus:
begin w/solid ++
RD w/size + mobility
age = mid 20s = prime career yrs
established initially good-> great entry w/Wini

deduct
contract term is good (covering prime yrs) but not intended for flat cap
as a result his value of performance vs cost paid is down
overpaid by approx 1.5 per
and no one should get 111% ironclad NMCs which he has
performance reduced away from Morrissey

moderating a bit vs the above negatives...
within 2-ish yrs, covid will get under control, seats filled, mo $ = improved cap going up
Trouba projects to find chemistry w/someone besides Mo
Rangers in recent yrs notorious for juggling line combos, D pairs
once there is a decision on who that will be chance for
familiarity = comfort = chemistry
also, whoever that is, should be an upgrade from 2020 Marc Staal.


So given all of the above, you got a guy who ....
got the very top end of market on his contract, for which $ aspect of market will rebound w/in 2 yrs, so that part of it is not entirely, but largely, temporary;
hence he is overpaid by 1.5 per at a bad time to move;
and, welcome to the club, wherever he plays he needs to gel w/ideal partner for best performance

For personal/family reasons, he currently doesn't wanna go more than NY-DET, although a case can be made he would go anywhere which fits his family situation, which seems to currently include FL or TB, and when his wife graduates to practice as someone said is next year, that circle may widen.

So in conclusion a flawed gem, but which circumstances depressing his value are arguably short term.
He is not someone anyone will pay top dollar for now.
Market price will go up with improvements in circumstances.

Possible buy low investment to right team at a discount.

If we deal him now, somebody like Chytil not given away, but included discount as a sweetener. [Chytil can be moved if Barron is as good as some say and Krav can, as I insist will be the case, can play pivot].

In any event if traded now may need a third team [Sens?] to take on cap and flip Trouba to where he will agree to go.

Not ideal, not dealing from position of strength, but not worthless either.
 
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Aphid

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Oct 19, 2014
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Immediately? Like tomorrow? 99.999999+% no

before the end of his deal?
99.999999999999999999999999999+% yes

sooner vs. later?
depends

Very true. Loved him in his first and second year. Thought he was fantastic and was really good. Then something happened to him and he's been declining ever since. He's not the same guy.

Rangers fans who complain about him now would have been ecstatic about having him on their team if he was the Trouba of year one or two. That version of him is worth every penny he is getting now. This version of him isn't.

If he was paid what he is actually worth then for sure they'd be down to keep him but the Rangers and their fans will lose their patience with him and want him dumped based on that cap hit.
 
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