Is it time to blow the team up and rebuild?

[Habs 4 Life]

Why does it seem that Canadian franchises are not run as well as American based teams? Can’t use the Canadian dollar and being outspent anymore. Why then are there no contenders in Canada?

The Oilers and Leafs are up there
Jets -Sens and Flames have all solid good young rosters with impact players in the future
Vancouver has accepted they needed to rebuild once and for all
The Habs well they have no direction. We have been patching for far too long.

 

[Hansman]

A few prospects look like they may become solid middle-pack players, but there's no top-end talent in sight, which is what the Habs desperately need. Without top prospects or a plan to acquire top prospects, there's no point in rebuilding if we end up with a younger version of the same mediocre product.

I;ve never proposed a trade before nor am I sure of value but couldn;t something around Nylander/Webber be doable with some add ons either way?Babcock has immense respect for Webber and the Leafs could use a good anchor on defence and a bit of a mentor.

 

[Lebowski]

Why does it seem that Canadian franchises are not run as well as American based teams? Can’t use the Canadian dollar and being outspent anymore. Why then are there no contenders in Canada?

The Habs really strike me as a corporation - and I picked that word carefully - that's more committed to making money than it is about building a cup winner. I don't necessarily blame Molson for it, he's understandably in it for the money. It's just sad to look at what this team is turning into.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The Habs really strike me as a corporation - and I picked that word carefully - that's more committed to making money than it is about building a cup winner. I don't necessarily blame Molson for it, he's understandably in it for the money. It's just sad to look at what this team is turning into.

Thing is... it will make money anyway. They might as well try to build a winner. All that does is improve the brand and increase ticket playoff revenues.

 

[Lebowski]

Thing is... it will make money anyway. They might as well try to build a winner. All that does is improve the brand and increase ticket playoff revenues.

In the long run, yes.

In the short term, who knows. I miss the Gillett years. He's the one owner that took a team that was down the shit hole (from the Molson group, no less) and turned it into something fun again. The teams weren't great then either, but the team was fun. Then it was back to Molson, and it has been a steady decline since then.

 

[Bryson]

Thing is... it will make money anyway. They might as well try to build a winner. All that does is improve the brand and increase ticket playoff revenues.

Easier said than done. It took the Leafs 50 years to realize this. How do you sell fans on a rebuild that they may risk alienating? It's a dangerous proposition because as any corporation knows once you lose the trust and loyalty of fans it's difficult to get them back. It takes courage and a proper message of the vision and direction that the team will suffer in the short term to make the team better in the long term. Similar again to how the Leafs did by bringing in credible hockey guys. I don't think fans or the media are buying whatever Molson and bergevin are selling.

 

[Lshap]

Thing is... it will make money anyway. They might as well try to build a winner. All that does is improve the brand and increase ticket playoff revenues.

That's true, but the bigger the corporation, the more decisions become a product of committee compromise. In this city you've got short-term profit and political marketing rowing in different directions than building a winning hockey team.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That's true, but the bigger the corporation, the more decisions become a product of committee compromise. In this city you've got short-term profit and political marketing rowing in different directions than building a winning hockey team.

We should be a cap team right? Our costs are mostly fixed... so might as well just go build a winner.

Oh and another tip for ownership. It's generally not a good idea to extend a GM two years before the end of his current contract...

 

[BadHabit]

We should be a cap team right? Our costs are mostly fixed... so might as well just go build a winner.

Oh and another tip for ownership. It's generally not a good idea to extend a GM two years before the end of his current contract...

I don't know... are we still a cap team? Who knows at this point.

 

[Chili]

Draft better? Its not like all the teams with top prospect pools tanked to get those prospects. People like to bring up the Leafs as a tank job done correctly, but the difference makers they got in the draft were Matthews, Nylander and Marner (maybe Kadri). The rest of the roster is built with trades and savvier picks lower down in the line-up. Montreal had 3 elite difference makers on the team when Bergevin came in.

Carolina built an amazing D core out of draft picks in a 5 year window and only two were lottery picks.

From 2009 to 2013, entirely outside of the 1st round, they drafted Dumolin, Faulk, Slavin and Pesce.

Carolina is one example and there are are certainly others.

San Jose and Nashville made the final the last two years. Not many top ten picks or even first rounders on either team.

Nashville has drafted well since they entered the league. Girard, picked just last year, has 3 points in his first two NHL games, looks like more of same.

There are teams who consistently build to their roster, wherever they`re picking.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Carolina is one example and there are are certainly others.

San Jose and Nashville made the final the last two years. Not many top ten picks or even first rounders on either team.

Nashville has drafted well since they entered the league. Girard, picked just last year, has 3 points in his first two NHL games, looks like more of same.

There are teams who consistently build to their roster, wherever they`re picking.

Bolded are teams that have invested heavily in analytics.

 

[OnceWasNot]

That is the opposite of the truth. The Habs are top 5 in the league in Shots/Game, and they're also top 5 in Shots Against/Game. So we are at the top of the league in generating shots, while being among the league best in restricting shots.

These numbers are deceptive. They're largely due to Julien's system, which generates a lot of low quality shots for, and also due to score effects from trailing for ~3/4 of the games played so far.

The issue with small sample sizes like this, is that bad luck (extremely, unsustainably-low shooting percentage, combined with higher-than-normal shooting percentage against) is magnified substantially and people panic without looking into any context.

Bad luck is a factor, yes. We're not going to shoot at 2% all year. But if you watch the games, it's pretty clear what's happening. Our putrid defense gives up a couple of high danger chances to good quality shooters, who capitalize and put us down early. We spend the rest of the game trying to come back, generating chances that our low skill players can't finish and outshooting the opponent by a good margin. This was the story against the Caps, Rangers and Hawks.

We'll score some goals, we'll shoot at 20% some nights and it will feel like the opposite of this stretch. But over a large sample, the team as constructed is likely too offensively and defensively inept to even make the playoffs without Price standing on his head.

So, the opposite of what you said is true: there is nowhere to go but up, considering the statistics.

It should be rather obvious that I wasn't talking about statistical reversion to the mean here. The team is trending down over the past 3 seasons and our chances of competing for the cup will continue to decline.

If these weren't facts, I'd be a little more worried. It's been 4 games, relax.

It's been years of scoring ineptitude, especially against quality competition.

 

[Frozenice]

The Habs really strike me as a corporation - and I picked that word carefully - that's more committed to making money than it is about building a cup winner. I don't necessarily blame Molson for it, he's understandably in it for the money. It's just sad to look at what this team is turning into.

I suspect that the Molson's took on a lot more debt then they were comfortable with when they reacquired the team and once they are happy with their financial situation I expect them to become more daring with the rebuild. Imo, that process has already started and I expect it to build steam as time goes by.

The things I wanted the team to do in the off season happened which was in line with how I expected the process of rebuilding to begin even though everyone else didn't like it.

 

[OnceWasNot]

Bolded are teams that have invested heavily in analytics.

Meanwhile, the Habs fire their analytics guy who suggested that trading Subban for Weber was a bad idea.

 

[Lebowski]

I suspect that the Molson's took on a lot more debt then they were comfortable with when they reacquired the team and once they are happy with their financial situation I expect them to become more daring with the rebuild. Imo, that process has already started and I expect it to build steam as time goes by.

The things I wanted the team to do in the off season happened which was in line with how I expected the process of rebuilding to begin even though everyone else didn't like it.

If you're referring to letting Markov and Radulov walk, sure, but how does re-signing Price to that huge contract plays into that equation?

 

[Harry22]

If you're referring to letting Markov and Radulov walk, sure, but how does re-signing Price to that huge contract plays into that equation?

And signing Alzner to a five year contract lol.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Meanwhile, the Habs fire their analytics guy who suggested that trading Subban for Weber was a bad idea.

He consults for Nashville now. Seriously.

 

[OnceWasNot]

He consults for Nashville now. Seriously.

 

[mitchmagic]

I think we need to blow up the management and fire Bergevin. Get a different vision going. Whether that means completely re-building or a very smart re-tool, is up to that new management. The vision is just not working.

 

[Harry22]

Random thought, put prime Price (past 3-4 seasons) on the 2007-2008 team and I believe we’re in the finals. That team was the most exciting Habs team in recent memory. That offense and that PP were electrifying that year.

 

[GodEmperor]

I;ve never proposed a trade before nor am I sure of value but couldn;t something around Nylander/Webber be doable with some add ons either way?Babcock has immense respect for Webber and the Leafs could use a good anchor on defence and a bit of a mentor.

Leafs fan checking in, I wouldn't do that not because the value isn't there, but more so because it seems like a lateral move which comes at the cost of an older player who will be declining. My offer for Weber would be 2 1sts Nielsen or Dermott and Carrick/Borgman/Rosen with some salary being taken back like Fehr, Moore or Martin. Basically 3 1sts and a fixer upper with top 4 upside. If you think you can get more, totally understandable, but I believe that is at least a solid fair offer to start off with. Perhaps some sort of counter offers can be made around Kapanen or Liljegren (or both) too as I would be open to them as I think our window is entirely open right now and going for it is totally worth it.

In terms of the question, I wanted to offer my perspective as I couldn't find the other thread on the main board. If I were you guys and trying to get things turned around, I would do the following:

1.Galchenyuk WILL be a center and he should be treated as such

2.Trade Weber, Price and Patches and get a ton of picks/prospects for them

3.Play the kids and take on contracts for even more picks

I think in all, you guys can get 4-7 1sts and some very solid prospects for those guys and start the rebuild.

That said, I wouldn't mind if you guys held pat because I definitely don't want to see you getting better, but I think the best thing for the organization would be to do a full fledged rebuild. You guys have some nice pieces in Lindgren, Mete, Galchy, Drouin, Gallagher somewhat similar to what the Leafs had a while ago in Kadri, Reilly, Gardiner, JVR, but there needs to be more high end talent.

Just my take, but I don't see this current team doing anything and worst of all, it's not even an entertaining team like those really bad teams of the Leafs that would run and gun and at least made the games fun to lose (kinda).

 

[V13]

Easier said than done. It took the Leafs 50 years to realize this. How do you sell fans on a rebuild that they may risk alienating? It's a dangerous proposition because as any corporation knows once you lose the trust and loyalty of fans it's difficult to get them back. It takes courage and a proper message of the vision and direction that the team will suffer in the short term to make the team better in the long term. Similar again to how the Leafs did by bringing in credible hockey guys. I don't think fans or the media are buying whatever Molson and bergevin are selling.

What i would do is make a PC and explain the whoie rebuild strategy to the media and the fans asking them to be patient and that it will pay up long term.

Short - mid term sure yoyu may lose some fans and not sellout every night while the team is in tank mode but....this is Montreal. Fans will come back in drove once the team start winning again or/if when they draft a franchise player a la Matthews , McDavid , Crosby etc and a few more high skilled and spectacular picks

So i don,t think it would be that big of a deal because you will get your whole fanbase again once the team start winning again and become a true contender except that this time it will be built right

 

[Cole Caulifield]

These numbers are deceptive. They're largely due to Julien's system, which generates a lot of low quality shots for, and also due to score effects from trailing for ~3/4 of the games played so far.



Bad luck is a factor, yes. We're not going to shoot at 2% all year. But if you watch the games, it's pretty clear what's happening. Our putrid defense gives up a couple of high danger chances to good quality shooters, who capitalize and put us down early. We spend the rest of the game trying to come back, generating chances that our low skill players can't finish and outshooting the opponent by a good margin. This was the story against the Caps, Rangers and Hawks.

We'll score some goals, we'll shoot at 20% some nights and it will feel like the opposite of this stretch. But over a large sample, the team as constructed is likely too offensively and defensively inept to even make the playoffs without Price standing on his head.
.

I would not consider sub .900 save % to be standing on his head. Your mileage may vary. Still wondering why Price can't be called out when he has played poorly since day 1 of training camp. I wish Lindgren would be his back up and push him a little.

 

[BadHabit]

If you're referring to letting Markov and Radulov walk, sure, but how does re-signing Price to that huge contract plays into that equation?

Not only is Carey the only thing that is keeping some semblance of a competitive team together, he was extended on July 2nd after both Radulov and Markov went unsigned into UFA. How long do you think MB wanted to negotiate Carey Price's contract knowing he could lose Radulov and Markov any day, and could have to answer those questions on top of why isn't Price signed?

Price gave his number and MB literally had zero leverage in the process.

 

[Frozenice]

If you're referring to letting Markov and Radulov walk, sure, but how does re-signing Price to that huge contract plays into that equation?

I forgot about Price but I don't feel it really matters whether Price stays or goes or whether we signed him or didn't to a big contract.

If, two or three years from now, Price wants to move on or if the team wants him gone they can move him, look at Luongo, he had an unmovable contract but he found himself playing somewhere else where he wanted to be playing, if he wasn't going to be playing in Vancouver. The Canucks didn't get much for Luongo and we probably won't get much for Price but we probably weren't going to get much for him in any case.

We not only need some high end talent but also to replenish the farm system and drafting guys like Phoeling or Ikonen help our future. I'm not a fan of tanking until we have a farm system with lots of potential, then go and get the elite stars by tanking that we need to be a contender.