Speculation: is it time to blow it up???

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
31,250
1,299
Calgary, AB
Not to mention, if we hypothetically could move Tlusty and Sekera and get two more ~20ish firsts, we could really restock the cupboard.

I did this in nhl 14:

Eric//Jordan//Semin
Skinner//McDavid//Lindholm
Gerbe//Rask//Joel Ward
Boychuk//Nash//Dwyer
Terry

Marc Staal//Faulk
Paul Martin//Hainsey
Jordan//Murphy
Bellemore

Ward
Khudobin

I don't think that's a Cup team right off the bat, but it'd be competitive and that team probably could make the playoffs and we'd have a restocked farm system to grow with as well.
 

Stickpucker

Playmaka
Jan 18, 2014
15,308
36,885
I dont know that finances are that bad with the Canes apparently receiving ~54m from profit sharing.

The NBC deal is nice
 

cpatrick81

Registered User
Jun 27, 2014
10
0
Raleigh, NC
Blowing it up from a player standpoint is a no. Blowing it up from a front office standpoint is a yes. And by that I mean an owner who gives a ****.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
If they still suck, they'll still struggle to draw. McDavid won't change that (much). The only thing that will really put people in the seats is winning.

But as far as blowing it up, let's go down the roster:

Eric Staal - Owed lots of $ through next year. Trading him isn't going to get you anywhere near full value at the moment. You'd be trading him at his lowest. If he's truly only a 60 point guy these days, they're probably best served trying to re-sign him to something like $18M over 3 years. He also has a NTC.

Alex Semin - Probably has negative value. No one wants him.

Jordan Staal - He's signed until 2023. Think about that. Anyone trading for him will be making a huge long-term commitment. Even though he plays an attractive style, we saw with Eric that it can suddenly change. I don't think he has a ton of value. Also has a NTC.

Jeff Skinner - A 30 goal scorer on less than 6 million a year is an attractive contract. He's also still quite young, and should be part of the solution going forward. He probably has a lot of value, but short of a really attractive package, I don't think he's moved. Also has a NTC.

Jiri Tlusty - To be honest, he has to go. Not just for the likely return, I don't think you'll see him re-sign here for less than $4 million a year, and he's not worth that. He's a smart player, but if he's not going to make a line go by himself. With how well Semin and Staal played in 2013, I think even Zach Boychuk could have scored 20 while with them. Not a great possession player either and we're already seeing his shooting percentage fall. He had a nice breakout here, but it's time to move on.

Nathan Gerbe - I love watching him play, but I don't think he's going to live up to that contract. He'd probably be pretty helpful to a playoff team, but what's he worth? A 3rd, tops? He's not old, he's a great possession player, and in the bottom six, he's slotted perfectly. His value will probably skyrocket next year if he scores close to 20 this season and next.

Jay McClement - Reminds me of Stephane Yelle. Probably looking at a late round pick at best.

Elias Lindholm - Part of the future and still on an ELC. As untouchable as they come.

Patrick Dwyer - Aside from his speed, he really doesn't do anything. Someone may throw a late round pick at Francis for him, but that's probably it.

Victor Rask - I've added his name in deals for more established players over the last few years, but that window is closed. Those deals aren't in their best interests anymore. He's part of the solution.

Brad Malone - No one wants him. He'll be the 12th/13th forward through next year.

Zach Boychuk - He'd probably get claimed on waivers again, but no one is moving an asset for him.

Chris Terry - See Zach Boychuk (minus the again part).

Riley Nash - He's a RFA after this year and makes $575k. How much of a raise is he do. I don't think we talk enough about the possibility that he could/should be moved. With Staal, Staal, Rask likely making up the center depth chart next season and Lindholm in there somewhere, where does he fit? He's very affordable for a team needing center help, even if he's nothing special. He'll be 26 next year and probably is what he is: a 30ish point guy in an optimal season. Can you pass up a 3rd round pick for that?

Andrej Nestrasil - IMO, he's overrated by nearly everyone, but might be a decent bottom six guy. We just don't know anything about him yet. He's probably worth a late round pick, but would probably re-sign for cheap.

Justin Faulk - He's having an Andrej Sekera-like season offensively, but defensively he still leaves something to be desired. Still, you can't move him (yet), even if he is probably overpaid (for now).

John-Michael Liles - Probably has negative value. Corsi is up, but he's been weak in his own zone and hasn't done anything offensively to make up for it. At nearly $4 million through next year, moving him without salary retention is probably impossible. And if they do retain salary, that'd be 3 on the books through the end of next year, which is the max a team can have at one time. If they retain close to $1 million, maybe some team will take him for a pick, and they should jump on it if so. He's just a roadblock that's been a healthy scratch too often for what he makes. Also has a NTC.

Ron Hainsey - Value is low, but he'd probably still be pretty useful to a playoff team and less than $3 million a year for a possible 2nd pairing defenseman is pretty reasonable. For me, it's a coin toss. I think they can eek out a 2nd for him or a mid-level prospect, but I don't see him continuing his slide. Not yet. At worst, I think he can be a serviceable 3rd pairing guy for the remainder of his deal. It really depends on how long they think it'll take before they can compete again. Also has a NTC.

Andrej Sekera - Has by far the most value, but he's a guy that will probably be effective as a top four defenseman into his late thirties. A first round pick would be nice, but ideally, they need to look at getting a guy who can step in soon, otherwise the defense will continue to be in shambles (even more so than it probably is). If they can somehow get him for $16 million over 4 years, I think that ends up being more valuable than what they'd get in a trade.

Tim Gleason - For a bottom pairing defenseman, he's been effective this year. He'd probably be exposed in the playoffs though. Still, I think they could sneak a 4th rounder out of him. He'd probably just come back in the offseason anyway.

Brett Bellemore - Went un-signed late into the summer, and hasn't really done enough to change that. Probably only has value as a 6th/7th depth guy on a playoff team. Late pick at best.

Michal Jordan - Probably claimed on waivers, but no trade value.

Cam Ward - As well as he's played this year, he's probably on the downswing of his career given his workload over the years. But still, no one is going to be able to fit the contract, and it leaves Carolina in a world of hurt at the position for a few years if Khudobin doesn't work out. Probably still not movable. Might be worth it to keep around and hope to re-sign him for closer to $5 million when his contract is up next year. Also has a NTC.

Anton Khudobin - Makes a lot for a backup, and hasn't played that well. Could be attractive to a playoff team, but does anyone really need goaltender help? They don't return much anyway. We're probably talking a 2nd or 3rd at the most. They may as well just keep him for that.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,358
97,930
Not to mention, if we hypothetically could move Tlusty and Sekera and get two more ~20ish firsts, we could really restock the cupboard.

I did this in nhl 14:

Eric//Jordan//Semin
Skinner//McDavid//Lindholm
Gerbe//Rask//Joel Ward
Boychuk//Nash//Dwyer
Terry

Marc Staal//Faulk
Paul Martin//Hainsey
Jordan//Murphy
Bellemore

Ward
Khudobin

I don't think that's a Cup team right off the bat, but it'd be competitive and that team probably could make the playoffs and we'd have a restocked farm system to grow with as well.

That roster is likely to be ~$72M. I doubt the Canes spend anywhere near that, especially for a team that would still have a slim chance to squeak into the playoffs.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,358
97,930
If they still suck, they'll still struggle to draw. McDavid won't change that (much). The only thing that will really put people in the seats is winning.

But as far as blowing it up, let's go down the roster:

So my net from post: A handful of guys we want to keep and a whole bunch of guys nobody else wants. Not hard to imagine why they have the record they have, is it? :laugh:
 

jstaal

go canes go
Apr 14, 2009
1,200
316
mass
canes

If they still suck, they'll still struggle to draw. McDavid won't change that (much). The only thing that will really put people in the seats is winning.

But as far as blowing it up, let's go down the roster:

Eric Staal - Owed lots of $ through next year. Trading him isn't going to get you anywhere near full value at the moment. You'd be trading him at his lowest. If he's truly only a 60 point guy these days, they're probably best served trying to re-sign him to something like $18M over 3 years. He also has a NTC.

Alex Semin - Probably has negative value. No one wants him.

Jordan Staal - He's signed until 2023. Think about that. Anyone trading for him will be making a huge long-term commitment. Even though he plays an attractive style, we saw with Eric that it can suddenly change. I don't think he has a ton of value. Also has a NTC.

Jeff Skinner - A 30 goal scorer on less than 6 million a year is an attractive contract. He's also still quite young, and should be part of the solution going forward. He probably has a lot of value, but short of a really attractive package, I don't think he's moved. Also has a NTC.

Jiri Tlusty - To be honest, he has to go. Not just for the likely return, I don't think you'll see him re-sign here for less than $4 million a year, and he's not worth that. He's a smart player, but if he's not going to make a line go by himself. With how well Semin and Staal played in 2013, I think even Zach Boychuk could have scored 20 while with them. Not a great possession player either and we're already seeing his shooting percentage fall. He had a nice breakout here, but it's time to move on.

Nathan Gerbe - I love watching him play, but I don't think he's going to live up to that contract. He'd probably be pretty helpful to a playoff team, but what's he worth? A 3rd, tops? He's not old, he's a great possession player, and in the bottom six, he's slotted perfectly. His value will probably skyrocket next year if he scores close to 20 this season and next.

Jay McClement - Reminds me of Stephane Yelle. Probably looking at a late round pick at best.

Elias Lindholm - Part of the future and still on an ELC. As untouchable as they come.

Patrick Dwyer - Aside from his speed, he really doesn't do anything. Someone may throw a late round pick at Francis for him, but that's probably it.

Victor Rask - I've added his name in deals for more established players over the last few years, but that window is closed. Those deals aren't in their best interests anymore. He's part of the solution.

Brad Malone - No one wants him. He'll be the 12th/13th forward through next year.

Zach Boychuk - He'd probably get claimed on waivers again, but no one is moving an asset for him.

Chris Terry - See Zach Boychuk (minus the again part).

Riley Nash - He's a RFA after this year and makes $575k. How much of a raise is he do. I don't think we talk enough about the possibility that he could/should be moved. With Staal, Staal, Rask likely making up the center depth chart next season and Lindholm in there somewhere, where does he fit? He's very affordable for a team needing center help, even if he's nothing special. He'll be 26 next year and probably is what he is: a 30ish point guy in an optimal season. Can you pass up a 3rd round pick for that?

Andrej Nestrasil - IMO, he's overrated by nearly everyone, but might be a decent bottom six guy. We just don't know anything about him yet. He's probably worth a late round pick, but would probably re-sign for cheap.

Justin Faulk - He's having an Andrej Sekera-like season offensively, but defensively he still leaves something to be desired. Still, you can't move him (yet), even if he is probably overpaid (for now).

John-Michael Liles - Probably has negative value. Corsi is up, but he's been weak in his own zone and hasn't done anything offensively to make up for it. At nearly $4 million through next year, moving him without salary retention is probably impossible. And if they do retain salary, that'd be 3 on the books through the end of next year, which is the max a team can have at one time. If they retain close to $1 million, maybe some team will take him for a pick, and they should jump on it if so. He's just a roadblock that's been a healthy scratch too often for what he makes. Also has a NTC.

Ron Hainsey - Value is low, but he'd probably still be pretty useful to a playoff team and less than $3 million a year for a possible 2nd pairing defenseman is pretty reasonable. For me, it's a coin toss. I think they can eek out a 2nd for him or a mid-level prospect, but I don't see him continuing his slide. Not yet. At worst, I think he can be a serviceable 3rd pairing guy for the remainder of his deal. It really depends on how long they think it'll take before they can compete again. Also has a NTC.

Andrej Sekera - Has by far the most value, but he's a guy that will probably be effective as a top four defenseman into his late thirties. A first round pick would be nice, but ideally, they need to look at getting a guy who can step in soon, otherwise the defense will continue to be in shambles (even more so than it probably is). If they can somehow get him for $16 million over 4 years, I think that ends up being more valuable than what they'd get in a trade.

Tim Gleason - For a bottom pairing defenseman, he's been effective this year. He'd probably be exposed in the playoffs though. Still, I think they could sneak a 4th rounder out of him. He'd probably just come back in the offseason anyway.

Brett Bellemore - Went un-signed late into the summer, and hasn't really done enough to change that. Probably only has value as a 6th/7th depth guy on a playoff team. Late pick at best.

Michal Jordan - Probably claimed on waivers, but no trade value.

Cam Ward - As well as he's played this year, he's probably on the downswing of his career given his workload over the years. But still, no one is going to be able to fit the contract, and it leaves Carolina in a world of hurt at the position for a few years if Khudobin doesn't work out. Probably still not movable. Might be worth it to keep around and hope to re-sign him for closer to $5 million when his contract is up next year. Also has a NTC.

Anton Khudobin - Makes a lot for a backup, and hasn't played that well. Could be attractive to a playoff team, but does anyone really need goaltender help? They don't return much anyway. We're probably talking a 2nd or 3rd at the most. They may as well just keep him for that.
Good work!
 

raynman

Registered User
Jan 20, 2013
4,957
10,866
Anyone remember what the Pens' attendance numbers were like pre-Crosby and then his rookie year? I guess you also have to factor in the lockout year as well though.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
Anyone remember what the Pens' attendance numbers were like pre-Crosby and then his rookie year? I guess you also have to factor in the lockout year as well though.

11,877 -> 15804. But yeah, pretty much every team saw a significant post-lockout bump (and actually, from 2000-03, they were in line with 05-06).
 

The Stranger

Registered User
May 4, 2014
1,233
2,077
Justin Faulk - He's having an Andrej Sekera-like season offensively, but defensively he still leaves something to be desired. Still, you can't move him (yet), even if he is probably overpaid (for now).

Faulk makes $2.5 million this year. He's not overpaid.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
You're right. I was looking at cap hit and I forgot his has a sharp escalation over the next two years. So he's still got time. But on the flip side, the last four years are worth 5.5, 5.5, 6 and 6. That's steep. But if he's not worth it, the lower cap hit may make him more movable in 2016-17.
 

go comets

Registered User
Jul 10, 2013
3,532
1,471
If they still suck, they'll still struggle to draw. McDavid won't change that (much). The only thing that will really put people in the seats is winning.

But as far as blowing it up, let's go down the roster:

Eric Staal - Owed lots of $ through next year. Trading him isn't going to get you anywhere near full value at the moment. You'd be trading him at his lowest. If he's truly only a 60 point guy these days, they're probably best served trying to re-sign him to something like $18M over 3 years. He also has a NTC.

Alex Semin - Probably has negative value. No one wants him.

Jordan Staal - He's signed until 2023. Think about that. Anyone trading for him will be making a huge long-term commitment. Even though he plays an attractive style, we saw with Eric that it can suddenly change. I don't think he has a ton of value. Also has a NTC.

Jeff Skinner - A 30 goal scorer on less than 6 million a year is an attractive contract. He's also still quite young, and should be part of the solution going forward. He probably has a lot of value, but short of a really attractive package, I don't think he's moved. Also has a NTC.

Jiri Tlusty - To be honest, he has to go. Not just for the likely return, I don't think you'll see him re-sign here for less than $4 million a year, and he's not worth that. He's a smart player, but if he's not going to make a line go by himself. With how well Semin and Staal played in 2013, I think even Zach Boychuk could have scored 20 while with them. Not a great possession player either and we're already seeing his shooting percentage fall. He had a nice breakout here, but it's time to move on.

Nathan Gerbe - I love watching him play, but I don't think he's going to live up to that contract. He'd probably be pretty helpful to a playoff team, but what's he worth? A 3rd, tops? He's not old, he's a great possession player, and in the bottom six, he's slotted perfectly. His value will probably skyrocket next year if he scores close to 20 this season and next.

Jay McClement - Reminds me of Stephane Yelle. Probably looking at a late round pick at best.

Elias Lindholm - Part of the future and still on an ELC. As untouchable as they come.

Patrick Dwyer - Aside from his speed, he really doesn't do anything. Someone may throw a late round pick at Francis for him, but that's probably it.

Victor Rask - I've added his name in deals for more established players over the last few years, but that window is closed. Those deals aren't in their best interests anymore. He's part of the solution.

Brad Malone - No one wants him. He'll be the 12th/13th forward through next year.

Zach Boychuk - He'd probably get claimed on waivers again, but no one is moving an asset for him.

Chris Terry - See Zach Boychuk (minus the again part).

Riley Nash - He's a RFA after this year and makes $575k. How much of a raise is he do. I don't think we talk enough about the possibility that he could/should be moved. With Staal, Staal, Rask likely making up the center depth chart next season and Lindholm in there somewhere, where does he fit? He's very affordable for a team needing center help, even if he's nothing special. He'll be 26 next year and probably is what he is: a 30ish point guy in an optimal season. Can you pass up a 3rd round pick for that?

Andrej Nestrasil - IMO, he's overrated by nearly everyone, but might be a decent bottom six guy. We just don't know anything about him yet. He's probably worth a late round pick, but would probably re-sign for cheap.

Justin Faulk - He's having an Andrej Sekera-like season offensively, but defensively he still leaves something to be desired. Still, you can't move him (yet), even if he is probably overpaid (for now).

John-Michael Liles - Probably has negative value. Corsi is up, but he's been weak in his own zone and hasn't done anything offensively to make up for it. At nearly $4 million through next year, moving him without salary retention is probably impossible. And if they do retain salary, that'd be 3 on the books through the end of next year, which is the max a team can have at one time. If they retain close to $1 million, maybe some team will take him for a pick, and they should jump on it if so. He's just a roadblock that's been a healthy scratch too often for what he makes. Also has a NTC.

Ron Hainsey - Value is low, but he'd probably still be pretty useful to a playoff team and less than $3 million a year for a possible 2nd pairing defenseman is pretty reasonable. For me, it's a coin toss. I think they can eek out a 2nd for him or a mid-level prospect, but I don't see him continuing his slide. Not yet. At worst, I think he can be a serviceable 3rd pairing guy for the remainder of his deal. It really depends on how long they think it'll take before they can compete again. Also has a NTC.

Andrej Sekera - Has by far the most value, but he's a guy that will probably be effective as a top four defenseman into his late thirties. A first round pick would be nice, but ideally, they need to look at getting a guy who can step in soon, otherwise the defense will continue to be in shambles (even more so than it probably is). If they can somehow get him for $16 million over 4 years, I think that ends up being more valuable than what they'd get in a trade.

Tim Gleason - For a bottom pairing defenseman, he's been effective this year. He'd probably be exposed in the playoffs though. Still, I think they could sneak a 4th rounder out of him. He'd probably just come back in the offseason anyway.

Brett Bellemore - Went un-signed late into the summer, and hasn't really done enough to change that. Probably only has value as a 6th/7th depth guy on a playoff team. Late pick at best.

Michal Jordan - Probably claimed on waivers, but no trade value.

Cam Ward - As well as he's played this year, he's probably on the downswing of his career given his workload over the years. But still, no one is going to be able to fit the contract, and it leaves Carolina in a world of hurt at the position for a few years if Khudobin doesn't work out. Probably still not movable. Might be worth it to keep around and hope to re-sign him for closer to $5 million when his contract is up next year. Also has a NTC.

Anton Khudobin - Makes a lot for a backup, and hasn't played that well. Could be attractive to a playoff team, but does anyone really need goaltender help? They don't return much anyway. We're probably talking a 2nd or 3rd at the most. They may as well just keep him for that.
Just have to hope that some team is desperate at the trade deadline and thinks a semin or a ward will put them over the top!! Would be great if we can unload those two contracts.....
 

dogbazinho

Registered User
May 24, 2006
9,303
13,897
Fairfax, VA
At some point the benefit of waiting till the deadline may outweigh the loss of draft position by holding onto a good player. Take Sekera, maybe we move up 20 spots by waiting but is that worth dropping potentially from picking 2nd to 4th every round. Something to consider.
 

go comets

Registered User
Jul 10, 2013
3,532
1,471
Of I am Ron Francis, I start moving players in January.... This team needs a top 3 pick, or it may never turn this mess around. Teams need star power.. And that means top picks.....
 

GoldiFox

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
13,287
32,030
Short of making the team worse, which I guarantee has never crossed the mind of Francis, there's no difference in trading now or at the deadline.

There is a difference in supply/demand that RF needs to work out.

There is an argument that teams will pay more earlier because they have the player longer. There is a counter argument that demand (and therefore the return) will be at its highest at the trade deadline. The answer depends on available targets, team needs, etc.

In the end RF will probably wait it out and try to re-sign both Sekera and Tlusty up to the trade deadline. Hopefully he ends the JR status-quo and actually trades them for top value if they can't be resigned.

I think Sekera is a lock for a 1st and a decent prospect. Tlusty is likely to get a late 1st (from the Pens, for example). Cam could bring a return if he keeps up his play. I'd guess RF will have orders to cut all extraneous salary in order to save money.
 

GoldiFox

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
13,287
32,030
It truly is amazing that we're still neck and neck with the Edmontons.

It is truly amazing that Edmonton has had three 1st Overall picks in the past five (edit: 5) years yet still looks like they would suck with the next five consecutive 1st overall picks.

What a freaking trainwreck.
 

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